Just in. Wow, this is a surprising verdict…
Story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626
This will put a chill on all sorts of forecasts where life and property are at risk.
Given this precedent, it likely puts an end to the science of earthquake forecasting…at least publicly.
But that’s a catch-22 also. If a scientist suspects a quake based on his measurements and experience, and says nothing about it for fear of retribution, does that make the scientist also guilty of manslaughter?
UPDATE: Roger Pielke Jr. supplies some background on the issue here
Alexander Feht says: October 23, 2012 at 3:46 am
[You may have a (very convoluted) legal point but the public perception of the court’s decision in this case is simple]
You may have a (very convoluted) legal point but the Medias’ presentation to the public in this case is simple.
The public can only perceive what is exposed and remembered. Few people remember that Mr. Giuliani was reported to the authorities for spreading alarm when locals apparently took fright at his warnings, which was way back in 2009.
You can’t see something that is not there, except of course CAGW since it is part of the Medias’ presentation to the public.
[Reminds me of the old Russian ritual of rolling a priest over a field after crop failure]
I disagree. I think that it is more like rolling a priest over a field after crop failure because the priest said that there was no need conserve water for irrigation because God had told him there was lots of snow in the mountains and the priest had told the people they should ignore the trapper that just returned from the mountains since he was no an Expert on Gods will.
The Experts did not fail to act, they acted, and they dismissed a reasoned and informed non-expert.
If the Experts had done nothing then the people that ‘took fright at his warning’ may have lived.
You and the media don’t seem to see what I see.
Andrew30 says:
October 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
——————————–
Andrew30, thank you for the explanation and the detailed post. From the link posted I found some interesting information:
“CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING
It would have been helpful for the CNN audience to know that Giuliani did not correctly predict where the quake would strike. He thought it would hit the town of Sulmona, some 30 miles to the south of L’Aquila, the actual location.
He was also wrong on the date — by a week. He predicted the quake would strike March 29, only to see that day come and go with no significant seismic event.
So if officials had heeded his warnings as Sanchez insisted they should have, they would have evacuated the wrong town on the wrong day.
Scientists have recognized for years that some seismic events, such as the release of radon gas and small tremors, often precede an earthquake, but say those events are so common they are not a reliable predictor of major events.
“We do know that some earthquakes, including the L’Aquila event, have foreshocks, but we can’t sound alarm bells every time little earthquakes happen because the overwhelming majority–95 percent or so –will not indicate a coming major quake,” Hough wrote. ”
Indeed as somebody said above, welcome to the dark ages. Maybe after another 5 years from which 3 slept in cars the italians will reach different conclusions?
Andrew30,
I hear you but media doesn’t, and the “public” (the indiscriminate and ignorant mass of morons, mountebanks and marauders that constitutes the bloody kindergarten some over-generous souls prefer to call “society”) sees nothing beyond what media tells it.
Also, as you may have derived from a couple of posts above, your case is not as clean-cut as you prefer to see it.
Also, just to make sure we are not missing the point. These men were not found guilty of “suppressing dissent” or any other such non-crimes. They were found guilty of manslaughter. They are declared responsible for allowing the deaths of several hundred Aquilani because they did not sound a warning to the population. In the judge’s words they released “inexact, incomplete and contradictory information” to the population.
Lars P. says: October 23, 2012 at 12:56 pm
“He was also wrong on the date — by a week. He predicted the quake would strike March 29, only to see that day come and go with no significant seismic event.
So if officials had heeded his warnings as Sanchez insisted they should have, they would have evacuated the wrong town on the wrong day.”
—
Yes I saw that also. I included the link (knowing that is contained CNN spin) because it was in English.
The ‘spin above’ is:
1. ‘Off by a week’, in fact off by 1 day of a quake but 7 days from a much larger quake.
2. ‘30 miles’ off, check the news below.
3. He did not persist with his message because they would have arrested him.
Here is some non-English links from a more local daily paper.
April 1st 2009 (after the first quake, off by one day and 40 miles)
http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_aprile_01/terremoto_psicosi_fbd94050-1e82-11de-9011-00144f02aabc.shtml
April 6th (Just after the main quake)
“Today, after the tragedy, Giuliani speaks with bitterness: “There is a risk that tomorrow they put me in jail – he says – but confirm it is not true, is false, that earthquakes do not can foresee.” [Google translation]
http://www.corriere.it/gallery/cronache/10-2012/aquila-processo/01/terremoto-aquila-tecnici-condannati_9d847258-1c63-11e2-b6da-b1ba2a76be41.shtml#1
Look in to local news from April 1-6 2009. If he had persisted with his message he would have been jailed.
22 Oct 2012 (on the verdict)
They were all convicted of manslaughter and injury to six years’ imprisonment for seven members of the Major Risks Committee, accused of having minimized the dangers in the days prior to the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009. During a meeting on March 31, 2009, a week before the earthquake, they decided to reassure the population rather than raise the alarm and ordered the evacuation. [Google translation]
http://www.corriere.it/gallery/cronache/10-2012/aquila-processo/01/terremoto-aquila-tecnici-condannati_9d847258-1c63-11e2-b6da-b1ba2a76be41.shtml#1
There were not convicted of failing to forecasting the main earthquake, they were convicted of “having minimized the dangers in the days prior to the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009”. They were convinced for what they Did, not for Something That They Failed To Do.
When they’re in jail and if an earth quake happens and they are killed who’s to blame for that? If they predict an earth quake that will destroy the prison they’re in, will they be let free?