UAH Global temperature up slightly in September

UAH V5.5 Global Temp. Update for Sept. 2012: +0.34 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

As discussed in my post from yesterday, the spurious warming in Aqua AMSU channel 5 has resulted in the need for revisions to the UAH global lower tropospheric temperature (LT) product.

Rather than issuing an early release of Version 6, which has been in the works for about a year now, we decided to do something simpler: remove Aqua AMSU after a certain date, and replace it with the average of NOAA-15 and NOAA-18 AMSU data. Even though the two NOAA satellites have experienced diurnal drifts in their orbits, we have found that those drifts are in opposite directions and approximately cancel. (The drifts will be corrected for in Version 6.0).

The new interim dataset, Version 5.5, has a September, 2012 global lower tropospheric temperature anomaly of +0.34 deg. C (click for large version):

Note that the new v5.5 dataset brings our monthly anomalies over the last few years somewhat more in line with those from RSS, which have been running significantly cooler than ours. The trend change from v5.4 to v5.5, however, only decreases by 0.001 deg. C/decade. This is partly because the time series is now almost 34 years in length, and adjusting the last several months by 0.1 deg or so is not going to affect the long-term trend substantially.

Evidence of the divergence of Aqua from the two NOAA satellites during 2012 is shown in the next plot:

The global monthly differences between v5.5 and v5.4 are shown next, which reveals the rapid divergence in the last couple months of Aqua AMSU from the average of NOAA-15 1nad NOAA-18 AMSUs:

The Version 5.5 hemispheric and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average since January 2010 are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2010 01 0.581 0.747 0.415 0.660

2010 02 0.542 0.623 0.461 0.738

2010 03 0.577 0.721 0.434 0.665

2010 04 0.416 0.609 0.223 0.596

2010 05 0.449 0.593 0.306 0.679

2010 06 0.376 0.430 0.321 0.464

2010 07 0.343 0.455 0.232 0.303

2010 08 0.376 0.480 0.273 0.216

2010 09 0.430 0.351 0.510 0.114

2010 10 0.278 0.232 0.324 -0.053

2010 11 0.208 0.316 0.100 -0.270

2010 12 0.141 0.207 0.075 -0.441

2011 01 0.022 0.036 0.007 -0.382

2011 02 -0.003 0.005 -0.011 -0.350

2011 03 -0.066 -0.013 -0.120 -0.336

2011 04 0.083 0.132 0.034 -0.233

2011 05 0.101 0.082 0.120 -0.061

2011 06 0.260 0.292 0.229 0.183

2011 07 0.343 0.290 0.396 0.169

2011 08 0.300 0.247 0.353 0.143

2011 09 0.290 0.280 0.301 0.128

2011 10 0.073 0.140 0.006 -0.152

2011 11 0.084 0.072 0.096 -0.060

2011 12 0.066 0.119 0.012 -0.033

2012 01 -0.134 -0.060 -0.203 -0.256

2012 02 -0.135 0.018 -0.289 -0.320

2012 03 0.051 0.119 -0.017 -0.238

2012 04 0.232 0.351 0.114 -0.242

2012 05 0.179 0.337 0.021 -0.098

2012 06 0.235 0.370 0.101 -0.019

2012 07 0.130 0.256 0.003 0.142

2012 08 0.208 0.214 0.202 0.062

2012 09 0.338 0.349 0.327 0.155

Again, Version 5.5 is only meant as an interim solution until our Version 6 is ready, which has new corrections for diurnal drift and an improved calibration strategy for the old MSU instruments.

Our reluctance to make these changes sooner is partly due to the flak we get when we are accused of adjusting temperatures downward for no good reason. There is now sufficient evidence (alluded to above) to make such adjustments.

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P. Solar
October 10, 2012 10:12 am

JamesD says: “Drat, the only temp data that I trusted now has to be adjusted. Dr. Spencer has been doing Yeoman’s work, and I trust he’ll do a good job in correct the drifts. But it still sucks. All the land data has all sorts of corrections which invariably make the past colder and ignores UHI. And now the satellites need corrections. The satellite will still be the best, but it sucks regardless.”
Do you really imagine there were no adjustments before today ?!
You need to read up on how they measure temperature from satellites.
All we can do is read up on how it’s done and decide whether we have confidence in the person doing the job. I believe the Roy Spencer is a trustworthy scientist doing objective science to get the best from the satellite data.
His adjustments are usually small and are not always in the same direction. He is open an responds to criticism. That all gives me confidence.
If you want a real laugh , try digging into how they work out sea level from a satellite.
I think UAH LTL is one of best guides we have , unfortunately it is still rather a short period of data to get the big picture of a system that has a dominant cycle of about 60y.

P. Solar
October 10, 2012 10:25 am

alex says:
The (fitting?) curve in the graph is very misleading.
No, what is misleading you is your own interpretation of what the curve means. It is a polynomial spline that smooths the data. That helps see the long term tendency in where it has been, it does not tell you where it will go next.
As we saw with this update a relatively small change can alter how the curve turns.
No one ever suggested that a polynomial was a proper model for climate behaviour so no one expects it to be predictive. However, it does help to see that there *has been* a down turn since 2007.
A number of different physical climate indices all indicate that warming stopped _accelerating_ in 1995, what warming slowed to the point of becoming cooling somewhere around 2005-2007. I would expect, from patterns in longer datasets that that cooling will continue until around 2040, give or take the short term ups and downs.

October 10, 2012 10:43 am

P.Solar says
I would expect, from patterns in longer datasets that that cooling will continue until around 2040, give or take the short term ups and downs.
Henry says
it seems you are correct on that statement, give or take a few years,
but how did you figure that out>?

October 10, 2012 10:49 am

Bob Tisdale says
Monthly Change = -0.305 deg C
Henry says
that is what I expected…

October 10, 2012 11:00 am

Doug Proctor says
The sinusoidal curve you are using may be mathematically correct within the limits of dataset,
henry says
quite frankly, the data exhibited in the curve is not sinusoidal at all, it is a polynominal, and because it has a correlation of less than 0.5 it should not be shown here here at all,
because it simply has no significance

rogerknights
October 10, 2012 3:53 pm

alex says:
October 10, 2012 at 4:31 am
The (fitting?) curve in the graph is very misleading. I would not bet for any cooling in the following years. The temperature stays in an up-channel that is not broken and holds on.

You can bet on future years’ temperatures on Intrade, here: https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/

October 10, 2012 4:22 pm

Various:
Okay, it’s a polynomial, not a sinusoidal. We are dealing with cycles. And if we put in some smoothing curve to gives us some sense of what is going on beyond the short-term variations, then we should do so if what we get reflects what overall we believe/can show is going on.
The polynomial result is not so bad as a pattern if you think that that is the pattern inside the variations. Maybe not mathematically, but if all this AMO and PDO and solar cycles are influencing what the temperatures do, we’ll get something similar. Though correlation is not causation, if there is a causation we should see some correlation, right?
If, as various say, the trend is non-indicative, then I guess we should drop it. So there are no shorter cycles showing up? And sure, it is satellite data, but it should connect to prior data, otherwise our satellite “proxy” data has little value.
Drop the trend or adjust the trend, or say there is no trend. That last seems weird.

phlogiston
October 10, 2012 4:26 pm

Roy Spencer writes: “Our reluctance to make these changes sooner is partly due to the flak we get when we are accused of adjusting temperatures downward for no good reason.”
To quote Winston Churchill: “Dont let the buggers get you down.”

Amino Acids in Meteorites
October 10, 2012 7:09 pm

The ‘up’ is just about over. It looks like a strong La Nina may be on the way.

October 10, 2012 7:53 pm

NotTheAussiePhilM says: ”stefanthedenier says:what was the GLOBAL temp, before; so they can say that is up by 0,34C?!?!? Nobody knows what’s the GLOBAL temp, to save his life – but they know that’s gone up by 0,34C? wow!!! That is to one hundredth of a degree precision…? Are they sure that isn’t up by 0,35C, or 0,32C? ”That’s the kind of nonsense that gives ‘deniers’ a bad name!”
NotTheAussie, if exposing the scam gives a bad name, so be it; but that’s only in the company of con-artists and fanatics. Galileo got a bad name, for exposing that the universe is not spinning around the earth. I’m proud to be given a bad name by shameless con-artist. The truth always wins on the end. 2] if somebody suggests to know what was the ”GLOBAL” temperature 600-800y ago; he is not talking about the global temp, but about his own integrity and honesty. At that time, people were scared to sail more than 30km west of Portugal, not to fall off the planet. .About 70% of the planet didn’t exist, the earth was flat. Who was collecting the daily temperature for them in Australia, Galapagos, Antarctic and mid pacific?!? By what model thermometers?! Is it written in the waves .of Pacific and Antarctic oceans, what was the daily temp for all those times; please explain.
Global temp is not as human temp; if gets warmer by 2C under the armpit = the whole body is warmer by that much – ”GLOBAL” temperature is completely the opposite; when one part gets warmer than normal – by the laws of physics, other part / parts MUST get colder.than normal!!!
http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/q-a/
the second post will give you the answers, for the questions you haven’t asked yet, ask Tony Brown. Silencing the truth, doesn’t change the truth, only conmen’s nightmares increase, and increase, and increase; are you scared from real proofs, NotAusie?!.Do you suffer from ‘Truthphobia” also?!
http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2012/08/25/skeptics-stinky-skeletons-from-their-closet/

October 10, 2012 8:19 pm

HenryP says: ”My own dataset shows global temps down about 0.2 degrees C since 2000”
Henry. what was the GLOBAL temperature for year 2000, so you know that is gone down by 0,2C?! Do you believe in what you are driveling?!
#2:”cooling will continue until around 2040”
Henry, your crystal ball has lots of thin air for harvesting from…. can you tell us the wining numbers of lottery, at least for the next 4 months?! Would be much easier, than to con yourself for 30y in advance. Meteorologist have problem predicting the temp for their local area past next Monday… you can predict 30y in advance; FOR THE WHOLE PLANET…? Did you still Tony’s tarot cards? Shame, shame!!!

October 10, 2012 10:11 pm

If the pattern of recent years holds up, we should see a drop to < .1C next month (October) and negative anomalies over the winter.
I'm now off to sign up for INTRADE.

October 10, 2012 10:27 pm

StefanTHEDENIER says
Henry. what was the GLOBAL temperature for year 2000, so you know that is gone down by 0,2C?! Do you believe in what you are driveling?!
ehhhh…..
I don’t know exactly the global temperature, it is not important, is it,? …but I know the difference;
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/04/23/global-cooling-is-here/
Study statistics, do all the courses, especially how to do regression and distributions, learn all about sampling and sampling technigues, probability theory, tests and hypotheses, etc
otherwise you will never be able to evaluate if your sample is representative and whether the change observed is significant…
Once you have done all those stats courses we can probably talk.
oh, and whilst you are at it, change your name, because by addressing me with that name you seem to start off by indicating that you are denying what I have measured which is another form of saying that I am lying. Not very fruitful if you want to engage in serious debate with scientists. In fact, next time I will probably ignore you if you ask me something again.

October 11, 2012 12:32 pm

Doug Proctor
So there are no shorter cycles showing up?
Henry says
looking at energy in, it is dominated by a 88 year cycle which is like a sinus wave, consisting of 2 parts, 44 years cooling and 44 years of warming.
What earth does with that cycle (energy out) is different, mostly because earth stores its energy in waters, vegetations, chemicals, etc. Evaluating average global temp. is like a nightmare anf if you don’t first find that 88 year cycle you would not even find any pattern that makes sense… as these UAH results are showing…
Remember I am saying that that curve is not right even though it may look a bit right.
It seems only dumb climate scientists keep looking at the wrong variable…

October 11, 2012 7:07 pm

HenryP October 10, 2012 at 10:27 pm, said: ‘’I don’t know exactly the global temperature, it is not important, is it,? …but I know the difference’’
You know the difference, from WHAT?! Henry, one cannot compare one unknown with another unknown; you should know that much. (as: you cannot know the distance between you and my house – if you are lost, and don’t know where my house is) Honest person would never compare the difference between two unknowns. If you are a genuine scientist; then I must be the Pope of Rome.
If the temp between two monitoring places of 100km, temp goes up by 2C – between the next two monitoring places of 1300km goes down by 1C – No honest statistician would use that data; unless the difference in size of different areas is supplied. B] in-between the smaller space of monitoring in 100km radius; there are 500000 different variation in temperatures, and changes every 10-15 minutes. C] the ‘’hottest’’ minute of the day that is taken in consideration, is not at the ‘’same’’ minute every day. D] some days, between 9-12 noon is only a degree or two different than the hottest minute – other times is difference up to 6-7C – normal statistician would have demanded that information first; before touching the calculator. Because all the minutes in the other 3h are much more important, than that one single minute; just because is the hottest,.
Thermometer is good for monitoring room temp, but on the open; in 800000km2 one thermometer…? they monitor on 4000 places, for the WHOLE planet…? Same as getting the number of apples individual tree of those 6 apple-trees produced – to ‘’statistically’’ calculate: how many grains of sand Sahara has…? 4000 thermometers are not sufficient to monitor the temperature in every room of Hilton hotels… those rooms say nothing about the temp in Patagonia, Easter Island, or New Guinea. Henry, when blindfolded, you don’t count the sheep and the flies, just to make fool of yourself and to harm the innocent. If it shows COLDER on the 0,00000000000000000001% of the planet’s surface area which is monitored; how do you know that on the other 99,99999999999000000% of the planet, where isn’t monitored; IS NOT GONE WARMER?! Where did you get your diploma from, in Disneyland? B] you don’t want to answer next time? WRONG!!! You can’t answer; because: when you are awakened on your sandpit and presented the reality / real proofs, facts -> you are scared from the reality.
Water off South Africa is colder by 10C, because of more OZONE?! Henry; because of lies like that – trillion dollars has being ripped off, from the working / honest people – children are brainwashed in schools – because few thousand nutters like you are drowning in their own drivel – so; you are not just lying, but actively supporting the biggest ever robbery.
What makes sharp decrease in water temp off Australia and off South Africa is: 1] increase of ‘’dry heat’’ in those two places -> that extra dry heat; for example, from Australia – destroys the moisture west over the Indian ocean -> less moisture goes south to Antarctic; to replenish the ice, to cover the surrounding waters around Antarctic. B] when current takes water from around Australia to Antarctic – there is not enough ice, to shield the water from the unlimited coldness in the air (water temp by the time reaches Antarctic’s beaches is 3-4-5C ABOVE zero / the air temp is minus -30 – -40C – without ice as shield / insulator -> that water absorbs much more coldness and is taking it north towards south Africa. 2] Because the shonky ‘’scientists’’ from the organized crime, that you fully support, are vandalizing the ice, with ice Crusher ships making lots of corridors -> then brittle ice brakes off 1000000 times larger chunks -> much more water is exposed to the unlimited coldness -> currents take much colder water north -> colder water = less evaporation = less moisture for creation for next season’s ice (chain reaction) So, blaming ozone, is camouflaging the real problems – your lies are doing much bigger damages than your twisted mind can comprehend. (Your GLOBAL cooling is inside your sick mind; not on other people’s globe). Have a nice day, Henry.

October 12, 2012 12:34 pm

STEPHANTHEDENIER says (to henry)
your lies are doing much bigger damages than your twisted mind can comprehend. (Your GLOBAL cooling is inside your sick mind; not on other people’s globe).
henry says
Come on doc, you are beginning to sound like those white (AWB) supremacists 30 years ago, who were threatening me (fighting against apartheid).
Here is my latest estimate of global cooling:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/05/new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-estimates-1-1-%c2%b1-0-4-c-for-a-doubling-of-co2/#comment-1107855
Clearly, you have not got a clue as to how I got my results.
Do the stats yourself (or do the courses – you won’t regret it)
before you judge me.
Anyways,are you really that much worried about the truth? Does it threaten your existence?
Don’t worry about that. Worry about the real Truth (when you have to face death)
John 18 vs. 37&38
Have a blessed weekend (don’t forget to go to church).
.

jimmi_the_dalek
October 12, 2012 6:06 pm

I suspect “stephanthedenier” is an example of Poe’s Law (http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poe's_Law). This term originally came from discussions of Creationist websites, and basically says that it is impossible to parody these sites as no matter what you say, someone, somewhere will believe it is serious.
“stephanthedenier” and his site are, I think, deliberate extreme exaggerations designed to parody the wilder end of the skeptic community with the intention of discrediting more rational skeptical objections by association.

October 12, 2012 7:47 pm

jimmi_the_dalek says: ”discrediting more rational skeptical objections by association”
you couldn’t be more wrong 1] I’m pointing out that: Skeptics are shooting blanks at the opponents; and the real bullets are using to shoot themselves in the foot, as target practice. In other words; to open their eyes, because the Warmist are wining with lies b] they don’t have respect for the fake Skeptics; because what the fakes use – most of the people that invented that crap – are in the Warmist crap.
‘Rational” skeptical crap, expecting to be believed by the Warmist, and the people on the street:
1] galactic dust effects Sahara, but not Amazon basin… b] same cuckoo ‘rationale” about sunspots effecting one part of a continent, but not the other; is got: unlucky stars…?! 1000’s of professional Warmist know that: only 10 years ago, nobody was knowing about sunspots – but the criminal element in the Fake’s camp – inserted sunspots effect for last 1000 years. Warmist can prove those lies any time they want, but are keeping it under the sleeve.
Skeptics pretending to know what was the ”GLOBAL” temperature 400y ago – 800y ago, 2000y ago, 6000y ago. GLOBAL temperature overall …?! By that, they are admitting to the Warmist: that they are bigger liars than the Warmist = code of silence about the truth. What kind of rationale is: to lie about Vikings on Greenland = their phony proof of warmer climate. b] old pictures with clouds used as proof of wetter climate. Jimmi, desperadoes using lies / crap are irrational, illogical, common sense and honesty deficient! Shooting the toy manufacturers with their made water pistols… you talk ”rationale skeptic”?????
My proofs are real proofs, ”SUPPORTED” by the laws of physics – that’s why the desperation to silence me. If one believes in his knowledge, would like the opponent’s proofs to be heard – so that people can judge for themselves. I’ve challenged many of you – you cannot proof that my formulas are wrong, why not; it;s a soft target – both camps; com-on! You don’t have a dignity to prove that you have being wrong, b] you cannot prove the laws of physics are wrong; but sick comments like yours, are regular. For your own benefit: all I know about religion, I learned from Hollywood epics (because i grow up east of the iron curtain). Nevertheless, you bringing to ridicule religion in the debate – here is some fodder for you: 1] the good Lord made oxygen & nitrogen to expand when get warmer than normal / to shrink when get colder – so that they can regulate overate heat in the troposphere to be always the same. Unless one of you sods can prove otherwise – both camps are proven 100% wrong!!!
The name ”Climate Change Skeptics” was given to you guys, by the Warmist. Not Global Warming Skeptics, because that would have being spot on – but Warmist branded them as ”Climate Change Skeptics” People on the street are starting to see that; it was all lies but are reluctant to take seriously people that don’t believe that climate is constantly changing. My mission is: to prove that: climatic changes have NOTHING to do with the Warmist or Fake’s phony GLOBAL warming. Truth always wins on the end. I have the solid proofs – what you guys have, is Hansen’s & Plimer’s dysentery. when drowning inside their dysentery – you cannot smell the roses i have
Jimmi, from 11 posts / pages I have on my blog – you cannot prove that I’m wrong on anything; instead, you resort in gossiping…?! That should be a proof to a person with common sense, that I’m correct. Here are fake Skeptic’s ” RATIONAL woo-doo doo-doo” http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2012/08/25/skeptics-stinky-skeletons-from-their-closet/
here are part of my proofs: http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/climate/
.