A new survey has been released by Yale in cooperation with George Mason University. In it, 74% surveyed say “global warming is affecting weather in the United States”.
Personally, I blame Seth Borenstein, Kevin Trenberth, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm and Brad Johnson for elevating and continually propagating this lie. As readers may recall, the journal Nature came out with a strong editorial against this sort of thinking, saying it is unsupportable by the current science.
Nonetheless, these propagandists are going full steam ahead in pushing it anyway. They are preying on the psychological weakness of short term weather memory coupled with the normal human fear of storms, part of our makeup. Almost everyone has astraphobia (fear of lightning and thunder) to some degree until we are reassured there is nothing to fear. Now, these people are turning that fear back on even though the data shows otherwise. This tactic really isn’t any different than making people in the middle ages believe witches caused bad weather. We think we’ve come so far, yet there are still those propagandists who prey on primal fears for the advantage they bring.
Here are some of the talking points, followed by the press release and questions:
• Asked about six recent extreme weather events in the United States, majorities say global warming made each event “worse.” Americans were most likely to connect global warming to the record high temperatures in the summer of 2012 (73%).
• Americans increasingly say weather in the U.S. has been getting worse over the past several years (61%, up 9 percentage points since March).
• A majority of Southerners (56%) say the weather in their local area has been getting worse over the past few years. Half of Midwesterners (50%) say this as well.
• Half of Americans recall unusual weather events in their local area over the past year (52%).
• Six in ten Americans (61%) recall unusual weather events occurring elsewhere in the United States in the past year (other than their own local area), perhaps reflecting extensive media attention to the record-setting drought, high temperatures, and strong storms in the summer of 2012, as well as the unusually warm winter of 2011-2012.
• Half of Americans (51%) say that droughts have become more common in their local area over the past few decades, an increase of 5 points since last spring. This national change was driven primarily by a major shift of opinions in the Midwest (66%, up 25 points since March), which was hit hardest by the summer drought.
• A majority of Americans (58%) say that heat waves have become more common in their local area over the past few decades, up 5 points since March, with especially large increases in the Northeast and Midwest (+12 and +15, respectively).
• More than twice as many Midwesterners say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave (83%, up 48 points since March) or drought (81%, up 55 points) in the past year.
• Northeasterners are more likely to say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave (52%, up 10 points since March) or drought in the past year (23%, up 6 points).
• Southerners who say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave increased to 61 percent, from 50 percent in March.
• An increasing number of Americans in the West say they experienced either an extreme heat wave (49%, up 13 points since March) or drought (41%, up 10 points).
• One in five Americans (20%) says they suffered harm to their health, property, and/or finances from an extreme heat wave in the past year, a 6 point increase since March. In addition, 15 percent say they suffered harm from a drought in the past year, up 4 points.
GROWING MAJORITY SAYS GLOBAL WARMING IS AFFECTING U.S. WEATHER
Poll Shows Americans Believe Global Warming Is Making Extreme Weather Worse
October 9, 2012 – (New Haven, CT) A new national survey finds that 74 percent of Americans say “global warming is affecting weather in the United States” – up five percentage points since March 2012. Likewise, 73 percent of Americans say that global warming made the record-high temperatures of the summer of 2012 worse, while 61 percent say weather in the U.S. has been getting worse over the past several years, up nine points since March.
“Americans have just experienced two years of record-setting extreme weather events, and are increasingly connecting extreme weather in the United States to global warming,” said Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University.
Half of Americans (52 percent) recall unusual weather events that have occurred in their own local area over the past year, while 61 percent recall unusual weather events that have occurred elsewhere in the U.S. Half of Americans (51 percent) say that droughts have become more common in their local area, an increase of five points since March, 2012. This national change was driven primarily by a major shift of opinions in the Midwest where two out of three respondents said droughts have become more common (66 percent, up 25 points since March).
58 percent of Americans also say heat waves have become more common in their own local area, up five points since this March. In addition, 20 percent of Americans say they personally suffered harm to their health, property, and/or finances from an extreme heat wave in the past year, a six-point increase since March.
“Extreme weather is clearly having a serious impact on millions of Americans, though the impacts are different in different parts of the country,” said co-investigator Dr. Edward Maibach at George Mason University.
In the Midwest, a large majority (71 percent, up 21 points since March) says extreme weather has caused more harm to crops over the past few decades. In addition, large majorities of Midwesterners say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave (83 percent, up 48 points since March) or drought (81 percent, up 55 points) in the past year.
In the South, a majority (56 percent) says the weather in their local area has been getting worse over the past few years, while a majority of Southerners (61 percent) say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave in the past year, up 11 points since March.
In the Northeast, 40 percent say that droughts have become more common in their local area (up 15 points since March), while a majority of Northeasterners (52 percent) say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave in the past year, a 10-point increase since March.
In the West, 49 percent say that extreme weather is causing more forest fires (up seven points since March). Forty-nine percent of Americans in the West also say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave in the past year (up 13 points since March), or a drought (41 percent, up 10 points).
The data are from a nationally representative survey of 1,061 American adults, ages 18 and older, conducted from August 31 – September 12, 2012. Respondents are members of GfK Knowledge Networks’s KnowledgePanel®, an online panel of members recruited using probability-based sampling methods (random digit dial and address-based sampling). Key demographic variables were weighted to match US Census Bureau norms. Margins of error (at the 95 percent confidence level) for the populations discussed are as follows: Total: +/- 3 percentage points; Northeast: +/- 7 percentage points; Midwest: +/- 6 percentage points; South: +/-5 percentage points; West: +/- 6 percentage points.
The report: Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind comes from an ongoing national study, Climate Change in the American Mind, by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. The study is funded by the Surdna Foundation, the 11th Hour Project and the Grantham Foundation.
In addition to Dr. Leiserowitz, principal investigators included Geoff Feinberg and Peter Howe of Yale University and Drs. Edward Maibach and Connie Roser-Renouf of George Mason University.
==============================================================
Here’s the survey: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Extreme-Weather-Public-Opinion-September-2012.pdf
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Two obvious things everyone overlooks. People stay inside more. They aren’t out in the weather so the few times they are they are surprised by what the weather is doing. They don’t know how to prepare for the weather so it seems to them that it affects them more. The other issue is the land use changes man has made. Over up a bunch of land with buildings, concrete and asphalt and any rain appears worse since there is more run off. Shoddy construction also means that it doesn’t take much wind or weather to tear things up. Some five year old houses near me are already having their wooden fences leaning over and falling down because they weren’t put up properly.
A third potential factor is people don’t stay in the same area, they move around. They have no history, no memories of what weather has been like where they move. So it seems worse just because it is different to them.
Basically people don’t have any common sense anymore.
Extreme weather plastered all over the cover of the National Geographic magazine’s September issue.
In the fifties it was the atom bomb tests. Before that comets. Now it’s CO2.
Better sensors, larger populations, and video camera phones make it easy for these people to scam the naive. The fox is getting chicken little to do his dirtywork for him.
The most extreme weather “event” I have EVER experienced (in 57 years) occurred Oct 31-Nov 4, 1991. I didn’t blame anthropogenic CO2 on that weather event then, and I don’t blame it now for the (drop in) extreme weather events today. This weather occurred in eastern/northeastern Minnesota, and was caused largely by the much more hyped “Perfect Storm” off the northeast US and maritime Canada, essentially halting the eastern movement of all other weather patterns. In Minnesota, we called it the “Halloween Blizzard,” not Athena or some other such rubbish.
Started snowing about 2 PM on Oct 31, by the time my young children went out trick-or-treating, there was about 5-6 inches on the ground. Halloween this year began on a Thursday. Friday was the only day in 11 years I spent in MN where snow kept me from going to work. Will spare you the blow-by-blow, but by Sunday morning it was still snowing, and we had received 45 inches of snow. My wife had to pull a double shift at the local pulp and paper mill, then went back in to sub for another employee who couldn’t get in, riding a snow machine the last mile or so to the mill.
Monday morning, Nov 4 when I arrived at work, the temperature had dropped to -20F, after the cold front that had been sitting on top of us for 3+ days finally moved on. Less than 50 miles either side of the center line of the cold front there was ZERO snow. We had been in the bullseye for more than 3 days.
It was weather, unusual to be sure, but just weather.
quote: In the South, a majority (56 percent) says the weather in their local area has been getting worse over the past few years, while a majority of Southerners (61 percent) say they personally experienced an extreme heat wave in the past year, up 11 points since March.
They must live in Texas. In South Carolina this past summer was pleasant compared to the one before, and we had plenty of rain. Then again, maybe they consider rain bad? A few years back we had about two months without a drop. That was bad.
With climate and the Middle Ages is really a case of “Plus ça change (plus c’est la même chose)”
– In the Middle Ages only a very few experts who could interpret the truth. Then it interpreting a Bible in latin. Now it is climate models and temperature data that we need the learned interpreters.
– In the Middle Ages anyone who questioned that truth was a heretic, and declared under the spell of evil spirits. Not much difference there either.
A couple of months ago, I started looking at the past weather records for
Tulsa so that I could speak reasonably to the individuals who were worrying
about how hot the rest of the year could be expected to be.
Tulsa records go back through 1905. The month with the greatest difference between
high and low was January with 26.6 degrees. January 1918 @ur momisugly 21.8 vz January 2006
@ur momisugly 48.4. June had the least with 12.1 degrees. The average spread was slightly
over 18 degrees, but the annual spread was only 5.9 degrees. This strongly
suggests that if the first half of the year is hot, the last part will be cold.
The fact that 2006 was the hottest January and 1918 was the coldest suggests that
it might be getting warmer. Looking at a linear trend through each month
shows a trend for January of -0.684 degrees/century. September has a trend of -2.441
degrees/century. Most months had positive slopes with July the greatest @ur momisugly 1.675.
The slope for the full years was a positive 0.156 degrees/century. I guess that none
of our climate chefs have had a chance to cook those books yet.
The next rows look at how many months in the record have been hotter that the corresponding
last full month. The bottom row is the the value for averaging the years that were hotter.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
6 25 0 9 1 17
1952 1961 1964 1962 1955
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5 44 26 41 46 35
1963 1961 1948 1949 1961 1956
The longest run of above average (on a monthly basis) temperatures is 12 consecutive months,
but in 1967 to 1969 we had 23 consecutive months of temperatures below the long term average. Looking at annual averages, we were above average for 10 consecutive years ending in 2007, but we were below average for 11 consecutive years ending in 1976.
This October, we have seen our average daily temperature go from 4 degrees above normal to 20
degrees below normal.
To me, this seems like CHAOS. I suggest that an extremely unlikely weather event is when it is
accurately projected well ahead of it’s occurrence. Give me daily maximum temperature readings for
a specific location within 1 degree for 7 consecutive days 3 week before they occur and I suggest
that would be very unusual weather.
Sorry about the formatting. I naively expected it to look like what it did in the entry box.
Blame this stuff on Seth Borenstein, Kevin Trenberth, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm et. al if you like, but arguably part of its origins come from Al Gore circa 1995, which coincides with his efforts to talk with members of the reinsurance industry about ways to stop global warming: “Extreme Weather Exacts Rising Costs from Insurers” web.archive.org/web/20000915081827/http://www.globalchange.org/econall/95jul9d.htm
Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America mentions that connection here, “…. in response to meetings in early 1995 with Vice President Gore, our industry will undertake a comprehensive review of the Administration’s climate- and weather- related initiatives …” http://web.archive.org/web/20000915081525/http://www.globalchange.org/editall/95oct1d.htm
And all that stuff has its origins in Greenpeace’s Jeremy Leggett and his 1993 report “Climate Change and the Insurance Industry: Solidarity Among the Risk Community” http://bit.ly/TrMVy9
But who did Frank Nutter quote when talking about extreme weather in 1996? Anti-skeptic book author Ross Gelbspan: http://www.smartcommunities.ncat.org/articles/insuranc.shtml
And it was Borenstein himself who said about recommending books on global warming, “There are libraries on climate change alone. To me they start and end with Ross Gelbspan’s ‘The Heat Is On.’ ” http://www.sejarchive.org/resource/index11.htm
As I pointed out in a February American Thinker article http://tinyurl.com/847nsq2 and in WUWT comments http://bit.ly/PlVjhQ , all paths lead to Gelbspan.
Climate Scientists are not merely fighting for their livlihoods. In a sense they are fighting for their lives, for there is sure to be a back-lash, especially in Europe where the climate fraud has resulted in a completely stupid derangement of the entire economy. People will be looking for a scapegoat.
Climate Scientists who have gone whole hog for the fraud, (as opposed to the few who, I suppose, have remained honest and unaffected by all the loot, luxury and fame flying about,) are like famous ballplayers past their prime. Time to get off the field, fellows. You are embarrassing eveyone.
Of course, “Global Cooling” should precede “Global Warming” on the list. And that term was preceded by some other alarmist fad used to exploit the exploitable.
It may seem a small point, but to attribute anything with this kind of certainty from such a small sample, less than 1100 people, smacks to me of making the answer fit a preconceived opinion.
I wonder how this tracks across different age groups. Just look at the education our kids are getting in school and you’ll see the more recently they were in school, the more likely they are to believe this.
Lying is not only a sign of poor character, it is also a sign of desperation.
[“A new survey has been released by Yale in cooperation with George Mason University. In it, 74% surveyed say “global warming is affecting weather in the United States”.]
Meanwhile in the UK…
On August 24th, the UK Met Office issued their 3-month outlook, which forecast
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probabilities suggests that September will be slightly warmer than average.
It will therefore have come as no surprise that September in the UK turned out much colder than normal, in fact 0.7C colder than the 1981-2010 baseline, and the coolest since 1994.
Still, maybe they fared better with their rainfall forecast.
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities weakly favour below normal values during September.
Woops! Rainfall was 17% above normal!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/
I’d love a bit of global warming for a change
omnologos says:
“On a more serious note, this all shows how alarmists feed on fear, and quite literally, on dead people. Zombies around us.”
It’s the Zombie Apocalypse!
Only we have a different name for the zombies:
….. Democrats!
with Maibach involved, you know repetitive propaganda is not far away. that he considers lewandowsky a ‘trusted’ voice is no surprise:
21 Sept: Psychological Science: Edward Maibach on the Sticky Problem of Misinformation
“When it’s really important to educate the public about an issue, the most reliable means we have is simple, clear messages repeated often by a variety of trusted sources,” says Edward Maibach, Director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University. Maibach wrote the introduction to the latest issue of Psychological Science in the Public Interest (PSPI), which features a report on misinformation by Stephan Lewandowsky (University of Western Australia, Australia) and four coauthors.
The report, Maibach says, offers clear information about why the human mind is susceptible to misinformation, why misinformation is so hard to let go of once people believe it, and what you can do to set the record straight once misinformation has taken hold. Watch this video interview with Maibach…
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/video/edward-maibach-on-the-sticky-problem-of-misinformation.html
At least use a different font or highlight your text, Anthony and moderators, this is a simple fix of the comments which needs attention still.
As far as this article goes, it shows how far you can bet on the stupidity of the American public!
The survey measures how effectively the alarmist message is being accepted within the general population and relies heavily on the ‘recency effect’ of associating weather variations within the last few years with the alarmist message of ‘anthropogenic climate change’.
MtK
about as scientific a survey as a lewandowsky!
Sept 2012: Yale: The Potential Impact of Global Warming on the 2012 Presidential Election
Yale Project on Climate Change Communication
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication
(It was funded by the Surdna Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Grantham Foundation)
(The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz and Geoff Feinberg of Yale
University, and Edward Maibach and Connie Roser-Renouf of George Mason University)
Climate Change in the American Mind Political Briefing:
Overview
A new national survey of Americans finds that among likely voters, 11% remain
undecided about their vote for president. These “Undecideds” are much more similar to
likely Obama voters than likely Romney voters across a range of climate change and
energy-related beliefs, attitudes and policy preferences…
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Global-Warming-2012-Election.pdf
While these fear-mongering tactics are deplorable, in the the end, they’re just building evidence against themselves for prosecution.
Chronicle of an announced death, Wikipedia style.
I had not posted on this road movie for a while but the occasion is too good to resist.
In the Wikipedia world there are crimes that deserve harsh punishment. Yet those appear magnified when “the Cause” could be threatened by the presence of “Global Warming Deniers” in the vicinity of Climate Change greatness.
The late French climatologist Professor Marcel Leroux (d.2008) experienced a second death at the hands of William M. Connolley and his acolytes. In “Death of a Salesman” the renowned software engineer goes full steam ahead in justifying his execution to the outside world http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/10/04/death-of-a-salesman/
From the height of his pretentious bumptiousness, he dismisses the condemned scientist’s life and work and goes on indulging in conspiracy theory about some honorific title the long serving professor received ten years ago. That Connolley is now chasing ambulances should elicit a smile since having been restricted in his editorial prerogatives following a scandal; his wings appear to have been clipped, only dead climate scientists beware! Or so you may think…
But living scientists too should be on the lookout for Connolley’s grim ripping endeavour!
Professor Gerhard Kramm is about to experience it first hand if Connolley and Eli Rabett get their way. Check Eli & W’s dialogue on the Connolley’s STOAT blog link above.
In Wikipedia vocabulary this is called “canvassing” and quoting from one of Connolley’s “friendlies” admonishing a much too vocal pro-Leroux editor about the crime: “…off-wiki canvassing of the worst type (canvassing people of a specific viewpoint in order to stack a discussion).” Repent sinner!
Yet when it comes to Wikipedia royalty Dr. William M. Connolley, all is clear. So clear, they did not bother to sub-contract rolling the ball against Kramm two days after WMC asked him to “Well don’t just complain about it, do something about it! –W”?
The Good Samaritan Joshua Halpern a.k.a Eli Rabett himself took on the job! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Gerhard_Kramm
And the boys are following the same, true and proven script than for the Leroux deletion, starting by questioning the victim’s “notability” and stacking up the deck against the poor professor’s unorthodox position on Climate Change during a likely one sided discussion.
Who will be expurgated next? If history repeats itself, let’s recall that Robespierre too was guillotined and with him, “his brother Augustin, Couthon, Saint-Just, Hanriot and twelve other followers, among them the cobbler Simon, were also executed”. It must be true: it is in Wikipedia!
P.S.: screenshots of all linked page have been saved, just in case… LOL
The only weather weirding going on is the tactics of those who stand to profit from CAGW in one way or another. First they say we should all ignore anyone who isn’t a bonafide “climate scientist”. (They get to define who they are.) Now they present polls of non-“climate scientist” as proof on CAGW. Weird.
certainty of belief about reality??? same Bernays-ian crowd:
March 2012: Yale: Global warming’s Six Americas in march 2012 and november 2011
Certainty of the Belief about the Reality of Global Warming – Figure 2
Nearly 100 percent of the Alarmed understand that global warming is happening (97%), and 57 percent of the group are extremely certain…
Q) How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about global warming?
Your local public health department
Your primary care doctor…
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Six-Americas-March-2012.pdf
ABC Australia: I Can Change Your Mind About…Climate
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT: Anthony Leiserowitz
Leiserowitz: And then comes last but not least the group we call the dismissive and this is about 10% of the public and these are people who are firmly convinced it’s not happening, it’s not human caused, it’s not a risk at all and in fact many of them, a majority of them are what we lovingly call conspiracy theorists, these are people who say it’s a hoax, it’s scientists making up data, it’s a UN plot to take away American sovereignty and so on…
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/webextras/anthonyleiserowitz_transcript.pdf
evasive Leiserowitz response in the ABC interview above:
Nick (Minchin): Can I just ask was your survey, the results you’ve just given us was that a properly conducted opinion poll by telephone or door knocking? Was it weighted for, you know, to get a proper demographic sample, how big was the sample, when was it conducted?
Anthony (Leiserowitz): Yeah, great question. So we always conduct our surveys with at least 1,000 people, nationally representative, this is the highest scientific quality of what we do, we can’t get published if we don’t have high quality data. So, yes.
Nick: Do you outsource that to a Gallop(sic) or something or you do it –
Anthony: I’m sorry?
Nick: Do you outsource that to a professional polling company to do it for you?
Anthony: Yes, we do…
Donald Mitchell says:
October 9, 2012 at 11:33 am
=================================================
Here in central Ohio of the top 10 record highs only one occured after 1950. Of the top 10 record lows six were after 1950.
http://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/ILN/pubACIS_results
http://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/ILN/pubACIS_results
(I guess either this part of the globe doesn’t count or we’re ahead of the curve?)