By Viv Forbes
A scheming cabal of green bureaucrats, academics and corporate speculators is trying to scare us into a mess of energy taxes, subsidies and rationing in order to combat what they call “catastrophic man-made global warming”.
Climate alarmists speculate that if the level of harmless carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled (which may or may not happen in a century or so), world temperature may be one or two degrees warmer than it would have otherwise been.
The proposition that this mild warming, if it occurs, would be “catastrophic” is so laughable that they had to invent “positive feedbacks” to multiply this scare to maybe six degrees in a century. However the emerging evidence, and Earth’s past history, show that feedbacks are negative – the vast oceans tend to stabilise warming temperatures so that even the two degree forecast is probably excessive.
In many places in Australia, temperature rises about sixteen degrees from dawn to mid-afternoon – over say eight hours, or two degrees per hour. So people who can cope with a daily warming of 16 degrees over 8 hours are supposed to panic about a fudged forecast of two degrees over a century – about the warming we feel in just one hour every morning. Even less “frightening” is the less than one degree of warming that has occurred over the last 200 years.
Why worry about warming anyhow?
The world has never suffered “runaway global warming” even when carbon dioxide levels were far above those of today. But it does suffer regular ice ages. It is not warmth that causes hardship and mass extinctions – it is the deathly grip of ice. The Little Ice Age that ended just 150 years ago was a time of failed crops, abandoned farms, advancing glaciers and famines. Even in modern times, there are more deaths caused by winter cold snaps than by summer heat waves. And those people free to move (tourists and retirees) always flock to warm places like Florida, Bali and the Riviera, not to frigid climes like Siberia, Alaska or Antarctica.
Moreover, more warmth always causes extra evaporation from lakes and oceans. What goes up, must form clouds and come down somewhere as extra precipitation. And if there is more carbon dioxide and water in the atmosphere, plants will grow better. Why do we need carbon taxes and ration cards to protect us from a warm moist climate with more luxuriant plant life?
The whole climate scam is just a smoke screen to hide the UN inspired grab for more taxes and more power.
Viv Forbes,
Rosewood Qld Australia
I am happy for my email address to be published.
Steven Mosher says:
September 30, 2012 at 7:27 pm
in 1995 a few hundred people dies in Chicago as the result of a heat wave. Mostly the elderly and the very young. So warmer and moister is not a good thing for everyone. A simple look at what a 2C increase in temperature would mean in terms of excess deaths is pretty instructive. Of course UHI makes it worse. In a warming world it’s pretty easy to find some winners and some losers.
If folks want to doubt the danger of heat waves they are of course free to do so. But the elected officials in many US and foriegn cities already have warning systems in place, because they are actually accountable for their beliefs.
==============
Or just run the cold water in the bath.
No need for elected officials, or beliefs.
Steven Mosher;
In a warming world it’s pretty easy to find some winners and some losers.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
1. In a cooling world, the losers out number the winners hundreds to one compared to a warming world.
2. In a world stripped of cheap energy, the losers out number the winners by millions to one compared to either cooling or warming.
3. You still have not substantiated your claim from another thread that new data and processes justify adjusting temps from the distant past downward. I’d appreciate it if you could justify said claim.
Reblogged this on Bohls Neighborhood Talk.
davidmhoffer says:
3. You still have not substantiated your claim from another thread that new data and processes justify adjusting temps from the distant past downward. I’d appreciate it if you could justify said claim.
david..
the data is output from their models.
the natural trend isn’t anywhere near steep enough, so obviously all the old data MUST need to be adjusted downwards to reflect the “reality” of their models.
sorta like homongenising rural temps to match urban temps.
lazy teenager says:
“Sure, but the same amount of fall in average temperatures would bring on the ice age. Saying a rise of that amount has no effect is not physically consistent.”
Steve @ur momisugly lazy teenager says:
“That’s true enough. both sides of the argument should stop conflating short and long term trends.”
From a given global average temperature, consider a long-term down-trend in temperature, delta-t that would eventually spawn continental icesheets. Now, from that same global average temperature, consider a long-term (same length of time) up-trend by the same delta-t. Which trend is more quickly returned to the pre-trend global temperature?
AndyG55 says:
September 30, 2012 at 8:45 pm
I say it’s curve fitting to match Co2 increase, “proving” Co2 as the primary driver.
If it doesn’t fit, you must adjust the hell out of it. h/t Johnnie Cochran
Steven Mosher says:
September 30, 2012 at 7:27 pm
“in 1995 a few hundred people dies in Chicago as the result of a heat wave…”
Heat waves are deadly, who would disagree with that? Do they have moist heatwaves in Chicago?
Here are some earlier heatwaves… You know, before CO2 became the cause of warming.
11 August 1900,
It was reported in the US that 26 die in record high temperatures of up to 107 degrees F.
2 July 1900,
In New York Nearly 400 people die in one day during a heat wave, with Temperatures up to 110 degrees F (37 degrees C) in the shade.
31 August 1906.
London: A heat wave brings Temperatures as high a 93 degrees Fahrenheit in the shade
23 May 1908,
Uganda: 4000 deaths from severe famine in Usoga region.
9 July 1911,
US: 652 deaths in a week are reported during a heat wave.
9 August 1911,
London: Hottest day in the capital for 70 years, 97 degree Fahrenheit in the shade.
26 August 1911,
London: Reported that 2500 children have died in the recent heat wave.
28 August 1911,
London: Thousands Die in record heat wave and has set Britain’s death rate soaring. With a mortality rate for all ages of 19 per 1,000.
22 May 1922,
London: The highest May temperatures for 50 years, 88 degrees F in the shade recorded.
28 August 1930,
UK: 34 people have died in a heat wave: temperatures in London soar to 94 degrees F (34 degrees C).
11 July 1938,
Eskimos in the Arctic complain of a heat wave: it is 67 degrees F (19C).
I have a lot more on heatwaves, let me know if you want a list of hurricanes, forests fires, floods, blizzards, thunderstorms or even examples of weather extremes like this for example,
a period of 13 months in the UK .
9 August 1911,
London: Hottest day in the capital for 70 years, 97 degree Fahrenheit in the shade.
16 August 1911,
Manchester: Reported that the city is living on food reserves and that famine threatens
28 August 1911,
London: Thousands Die in record heat wave and has set Britain’s death rate soaring
4 February 1912,
UK: Big Freeze takes hold as temperatures drop to as low as -35 degrees F.
26 August 1912,
UK: Worst August rainfall on record, six inches in 12 hours causes floods that cut off Norwich and other towns.
Record breaking heat, areas threatened by famine, record heat wave, thousands die then a Big Freeze, record rainfall and floods.
All recorded before man made global warming and CO2 levels were lower.
Steven Mosher says:
“A simple look at what a 2C increase in temperature would mean in terms of excess deaths is pretty instructive.”
So what are you saying about a 2C increase in temperature? What will it actually do?
David Ball says:
“I say it’s curve fitting to match Co2 increase, “proving” Co2 as the primary driver.
If it doesn’t fit, you must adjust the hell out of it. h/t Johnnie Cochran”
if you use enough “variables”, “constants”, “f-factors” etc etc, you can make a curve match basically anything from the past record, ESPECIALLY if you are allowed to adjust the past record as well.
Predictive value …. NIL !!!!!
Steven Mosher thinks that elected officials are accountable for their beliefs.
Anybody still wants to argue with him? About anything?
Lack of water storage areas, for whatever reason
or
Problems with declining water aquifers?
Kill two birds with one stone, arrange to direct floodwater and/or excess flow into the aquifers . Bingo additional storage and aquifer level decline solved on one go.
Something that always annoys me about these “In a hundred years…” projections is that they totally ignore the likely technological innovations that will be developed during those hundred years. Yes, it’s a good idea to cut down on pollution where we can, but to proceed on the assumption that NO solutions or fixes or ameliorations will be found to these problems is simply unrealistic. And, as I believe has been pointed out here many times, the theories that produce computer models making wild projections while ignoring their own inherent limitations and their inability to account for confounders and unknown or under-appreciated natural processes, are also open to a lot of criticism.
Should you plan for your individual economic future? Should you try to have a saftey cushion built in? Of course. But should you plan for it on the basis of your income never increasing while simultaneously every possible economic disaster befalls you? Only if you love ulcers.
– MJM
Grey Lensman says:
“Kill two birds with one stone, arrange to direct floodwater and/or excess flow into the aquifers . Bingo additional storage and aquifer level decline solved on one go.”
That’s what they are doing in Perth, Australia. They are even treating effulent to very high standards and injecting it into the aquifers. Perth has very little above ground water storage. And not much rain. And it get pretty warm in summer !
While it is apparently true that a 2 degree fall in temperature can lead to an ice age I see no particular harm in the climate moving two degrees further from an ice age. Only if the ice caps melt is there any down-side to warming, and I don’t see much chance of Antartica melting any time soon: at an average temperature of -30 degrees, 2 degrees is too small a warming to do anything much. Water freezes at 0 degrees.
It has been my observation that during heat waves that kill, there is a lot of humidity. It is the water vapour and not CO2 that keeps the heat in.
Chinooks are quite common where I used to live (Alberta, Lethbridge, Age 5 and 6) and they cause large temperature swings. One of the largest temperature swings in history, at least in Canada, was in Pincher Creek, the temperature rose by 41°C (74°F), from -19 to 22°C (-2 to 72°F), in one hour in 1962.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_wind
AndyG55 says: ”Stefan, Yes, we should have built more dams down here”,
AndyG, clouds drop the rain close to the coast in Australia, but not in Brazil, WHY?. If you don’t know how to fix your car – look at the one that is fixed, to learn. Andy, clouds avoid dry heat! Reason they are repossessing farmer’s water – farmers irrigate when is hot / dry – that water evaporates and fights against the dry heat created in the center – minus that small contribution = dry heat will increase and come closer to Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane (where the vote is).
Please read the post i suggested in the comment September 30, 2012 at 6:37 pm – we have a lot to share. ( don’t scare the lazy tanager – by talking about building dams… dams are built by working people)
Steven Mosher says: ” So warmer and moister is not a good thing for everyone”
Mosher, sometime you say things that make sense – but often you are more ignorant than a camel. ”moist” is not warmer, Steven. Compare the hottest in Brazil and Sahara.
Heatwaves are CREATED IN DESERTS. Then they go to civilized areas, to penalize them for listening for people like you. From Sahara / Arabian peninsular heatwaves are going to southern Europe, and increasing – heatwaves from central Australia goes to the coast and burns people in bushfires – Californian bushfires are for same reason as Australian’s – dry air from the desert is vacuuming the moisture from the vegetation for the previous 10 months = big bushfires. If you have stomach for the truth, real proofs: Learn the real truth about water vapor; you’ll be glad you did: http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/water-vapor/
D Böehm says: ” ice core evidence is accepted by both sides of the debate. And there is ample evidence verifying that the MWP was a global event. You could start learning about it here”
:Böehm mate, I have learned about what you are pointing about; well, long, long time ago. That’s why I’ve pointed to you that: the ice cores don’t tell lies; but the ones that use them, doo. 1] both sides were creating the foundation for the Warmist lies – now they use the code of silence about the truth. 2] their 50 000y old ice is less than 300yt old. (please read that post, don’t be scared) 3] is in the ice core written the temperature above Pacific for thousands of years ago?! Pacific is as large as all the dry land on the planet. Pagan beliefs are collapsing – if it wasn’t for the Fake Skeptics – all Warmist would had faced the truth by now. Yes, you are correct: both sides of the sandpit agree on many fairy-tales; but that doesn’t makes the ”proxy fairy-tales” to be correct.
if you read what I pointed, after that, i will give you another post to read; on the ‘ice core subject” or you can see it there as: ”WARMER=MORE ICE”
Steven Mosher says:
September 30, 2012 at 7:27 pm
For interest Steven I suggest you research winter excess deaths in the UK. The UK has a very poor record of protecting the vulnerable from the cold. These links will give you a good start, so you don’t condemn more of the UK population to a miserable lonely death.
http://www.poverty.org.uk/67/index.shtml
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2010-11–provisional–and-2009-10–final-/stb-ewm-2010-11.html
If you are serious about thi, then you can even download official UK government data here:
http://data.gov.uk/dataset/excess_winter_deaths
When you’re old and cold this might be useful
http://www.ageuk.org.uk/pagefiles/2013/excess_winter_deaths_report_oct10.pdf
Now please stop spouting propaganda for your friends and do something useful.
Anyone with an interest in warmth, moisture [and air flow] should study this. It can be used to work out healthy comfortable envelopes for living and working.
It’s not psychometrics by the way!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychrometrics
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
“The whole climate scam is just a smoke screen to hide the UN inspired grab for more taxes and more power.”
On the nail, Viv. The UN has a lot of power but, since no-one anywhere ever voted for them, no authority. And didn’t someone once say, “no taxation without representation”? Ultimately, the UN is the junta we need to depose, and soon.
hmmm…
If the UK were Australia, the UK population would be about 700,000
A single city.
Sounds like genocide to me.
Stefan
“clouds drop the rain close to the coast in Australia, but not in Brazil, WHY?.”
Its a geography thing.. We have what is called “The Great Dividing Range” situated between 5km -100km from the eastern seaboard. Nearly all our major rain storms comes from what is called “east coast lows’ ie low pressure systems off-shore that pump warm moist air toward the coast. This air hits the GDR and is forced upwards, and we get these massive down-pours. These are often very localised.
We do get other rain events but they are generally front vs front events, mostly heading up the coast, with generally with lighter rainfall. On hot days in summer you sort of pray for a ‘southerly buster” to come through.
When the El Nina, La Nino switches, we get a LOTof warm moist air to the north east of Queensland and we get events like the recent SEQld floods.
Stefan
“Reason they are repossessing farmer’s water”
Is that most of the licences were bases on a natural high rainfall period in the 1950s-1980s…..they over allocated. This means that if farmers take their alloted allocations ina normal year (whatever that is down here), then the Darling and Murray rivers stand a good chance of running dry.
Now since the city of Adelaide essentially depends on the Murray-Darling system for its water, this is probably not a good idea… (although some would disagree 😉
There is a balance somewhere, but predicting rainfall and river flows in any region of Australia away from the coast is pretty much like trying to win lotto.
The greens, of course, want to destroy Australian agriculture so want massive cuts in irrigation licences. Its the green way. Whereas the farmers ant to be able to feed Australia and make a living.
Maybe once they get away from the AGW meme, the government will be able to start making sensible decisions about the balance,, who knows. !