![antarctic.seaice.color.000.thumb[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/antarctic-seaice-color-000-thumb1.png?resize=320%2C320&quality=75)
As you may know, I have been using Cryosphere’s Antarctic Sea Ice Area data to show the record levels of Antarctic Sea Ice.
But I just found another data set, NOAA’s Sea Ice Extent here. (thanks to commenter HaroldW at the Blackboard)
And it turns out day 265 set an all time record, and then day 266 (Sept 22nd) broke that record. Days 265 through 270 are now the 6 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!
11 of the top 15 extents are now in 2012.
Anyone wonder why NOAA isn’t making a fuss about this?
| Year | Day of Year | Ice Extent |
| 2012 | 266 | 19.45418 |
| 2012 | 268 | 19.4478 |
| 2012 | 267 | 19.44631 |
| 2012 | 270 | 19.4433 |
| 2012 | 269 | 19.41601 |
| 2012 | 265 | 19.36135 |
| 2006 | 264 | 19.35934 |
| 2012 | 257 | 19.35567 |
| 2012 | 271 | 19.35207 |
| 2006 | 267 | 19.34999 |
| 2012 | 264 | 19.34204 |
| 2012 | 259 | 19.33522 |
| 2006 | 265 | 19.3289 |
| 2006 | 268 | 19.32669 |
| 2012 | 258 | 19.31503 |
Ferdberple says
We are in a period of rapid magnetic pole change.
As the north magnetic pole moves towards the north geographic poles, the ice is decreasing at the north pole. As the south magnetic pole moves away from the south geographic pole, the ice is increasing at the south pole.
100 billion dollars spend on climate research, at the “best” minds in the field missed this very simple connection between climate change and the earth’s magnetic field. The paleo evidence is clear, the climate changes when the magnetic poles change.
Or, are we to believe that CO2 and climate change control the magnetic poles?
Henry says
Considering there are giga tons of bicarbonate in the oceans, that react like
heat + HCO3- => CO2 g + OH-
it is clear that the heat increase was leading CO2 up, as from about 1950 or 1951, when (natural) global warming started. So that was a red herring to start off with.
I doubt the connection you make, though, as my results are showing that, although the SH and NH are cooling at different rates, the absolute value for the rate of cooling down (when looking at energy-in) is more or less constant for both hemispheres.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/29/according-to-noaa-data-all-time-antarctic-sea-ice-rxtent-record-was-set-on-sept-22nd-2012/#comment-1095536
I think my connection with a difference in the shield on top of earth makes more sense, but if you can prove to me that this could somehow be related to the earth’s magnetic fields, somehow, I am open to that, but waiting for some proof. (Vukcevic?)
I’m looking specifically for changes that occurred at around 1951 and 1995.
For those confused by Cryosphere’s Anomaly graph, they are graphing sea ice AREA.
This post is about sea ice EXTENT.
Sea Ice Area came within 10,000 sq km of breaking the 2007 record.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/antarctic-sea-ice-could-it-get-an-closer-without-breaking-the-all-time-record/
Sea Ice EXTENT blasted the 2006 record.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/09/29/wow-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-all-time-records-set-in-2012/
“What is the difference between sea ice area and extent?
Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent
NOAA probably isn’t making a fuss about this because it is behavior that is well within the limits of models. The Arctic, on the other hand, IS outside of most modeled ranges.
redoing the analysis of NH I did this week, for SH we find this:
Taking ALL available data not just this years’ min/max, whatever. We are talking about climate change so we’d better look at the rate of change directly rather than trying to guess it from the ice cover time series.
Taking rate of change and applying a 365d filter to remove the annual component we find this :
http://i48.tinypic.com/5dsb68.png
The post 2007 period has been unique in the record which both poles showing increasing rate of change at the same time , rather than the usual see-saw.
We are not in what appears to be also unique with BOTH poles showing +ve rate of change in ice cover at the same time.
OMG, it’s worse than we thought!
Skeptic and Alarmist talking:
(Any resemblance to any actual conversation is coincidental.)
Alarmist: The ice is melting, we’re doomed!
Skeptic: What ice?
Alarmist: The arctic sea ice is melting unprecedentedly; this proves that the world is warming catastrophically due to man’s activities.
Skeptic: The arctic is one region not the whole world, Antarctic sea ice is growing. Evidence of regional warming is not evidence of Global Warming or whether the warming will be catastrophic or what causes the warming.
Alarmist: The Antarctic sea ice doesn’t matter.
Skeptic: Antarctica is part of the world isn’t it?
Alarmist: You’re not a climatologist.
Skeptic: I’m not a mathematician either, but I still know 2+2=4.
Alarmist: It’s more complicated than that; it takes computer models to figure out what’s going to happen and why.
Skeptic: A computer model can only make projections based on its programming, GIGO.
Alarmist: Most climatologists agree that the world is dangerously warming due to man’s activities.
Skeptic: Most cryptozoologists agree that the North American Wood Ape exists.
Alarmist: Why would climatologists lie?
Skeptic: I didn’t say they were lying, most probably believe what they’re saying.
Alarmists: So, if you believe that they believe and they’re the experts then why not believe them?
Skeptic: Because they could be under the influence of confirmation bias, noble cause corruption, or conflicts of interest.
Alarmists: You’re a denier.
Skeptic: What am I denying?
Alarmist: You probably don’t believe we went to the moon.
Skeptic: There’s ample evidence we went to the moon, so I do believe we went to the moon.
Alarmist: The same people, NASA, say the world is warming dangerously from CO2 emissions.
Skeptic: It’s not exactly the same people, but nevertheless it’s not about who says what but rather what can be reasonably established by evidence.
Alarmist: Evidence like the arctic sea ice disappearing?
Skeptic: Yes, that is evidence of arctic warming but not necessarily evidence of global warming and certainly not evidence that it’s anthropogenic or catastrophic.
Alarmist: But arctic melting is consistent with the models that project dangerous global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions so it is evidence of man-made dangerous global warming.
Skeptic: Ok, but its thin evidence at best, for example, a half-eaten cookie on Christmas Morning is consistent with a visit from Santa Claus, it’s not solid evidence of a visit from Santa Claus.
Alarmist: But the climatologists say they can’t think of anything else that might have caused the warming, unlike you’re example where others could have eaten half the cookie.
Skeptic: So, I’m to take “argumentum ad ignorantiam” as evidence solid enough to base policy that effects the entire population of the world?
Alarmist: Yes, the precautionary principle demands we act now, just in case.
Skeptic: The precautionary principle demands we not apply the precautionary principle, it’s self-contradictory. We’d never do anything or make any progress if we didn’t violate the precautionary principle.
Alarmist: You’re exaggerating; taking it too far.
Skeptic: Well, do tell, what is the acceptable threshold of precautionary principle application?
Alarmist: It depends.
Skeptic: Let me guess, on the opinion of the experts?
Alarmist: What’s wrong with that?
Skeptic: Only everything.
Alarmist: You’re such a cynic.
Skeptic: Hey, I have some future beach front property I’m selling, think of your great grandchildren.
A recent paper by Tsedakis (I think – ref not to hand) described a polar seesaw – reciprocal cooling and warming by the two poles – as a prelude to the end of an interglacial period.
Curious
I too was pretty lost when I began to look into this area. With two postgraduate degrees, I believed that I could learn the subject to some extent, but as my areas of study had zero to do with what all climate science involves, I decided to begin at a very basic level and build on that foundation. A number of books were highly readable, understandable and well-documented.
1) Bjorn Lomborg’s “The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the State of the Real World” (Revised 2001) served well as a basic primer on the broad topic of enviromentalism and pollution. The book covers the entire issue of what and how bad certain pollutants are. CO2 gets a large review. The book also provides a detailed history of how the IPCC muscled into the area and stretched data and internationalized the cabal. The book is a good but not easy read and the reader needs to pay close attention. It is studded with footnotes that support his statements (2930 of them). There is also a large, but probably now out of date bibliography.
2) Lomborg has a second, smaller book, “Cool It” (2007) that is not as encyclopedic as TSE, but his thesis is “OK, assuming we are going to have this global warming you are predicting, what is the most practical, reasonable and economical response to it.” Rather than the Kioto and other wildly expensive and expansive (of governmental power) responses the AGW’s are clammoring for, Lomborg shows that a rational,universal and appropriate response can be raised that will save millions upon millions of lives (assumimg what we’re assuming) and cost billions upon billions of dollars less. His suggestions are so obvious and attainable that one wonders why Lomborg is the only one espousing his program. (Naw: follow the Money).
3) One of the Holy Scriptures of the CAGW people is the 1998 paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes and its bastard spawn purporting to show the hockey stick-like elevation of world tempetures in the late 20th century. A.W. Montford has produced a book, “The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climatgate and the Corruption of Science” (2010). The book explores the Mann, Bradley, Hughes (MBH) paper and explodes its validity in a large number of areas. The book reads like a great detective story except that the clues, dead bodies and missing persons are arcane (to me) statistical concepts used (improperly) in MBH. The book relates in Conan Doyle style how the heroes (McIntyre and McKitrick among others) followed the statistical clues and evidence in MBH that led them to the startling conclusion that MBH is not just flawed but is junk science. That part of the book does not require a statistical background in the reader as Montford educates while he elucidates. Other parts of the book show in shocking detail how the “Team”protected their own rather than scientific fact. This is disturbing to read how these AGW advocates hide and fake data, refuse to release data which forms the bases of their conclusions and began to entrain governments to their AGW purposes. The book is a great read; It does cover some complex and arcane issues but Montford does a splendid job of simplifying and explaining. I also am renewing my forty-year ago relationship with statistical analysis.
4) Another invaluable book is “Red Hot Lies: How Global Warming Alarmists Use Threats, Fraud, and Deception to Keep You Misinformed” (2008) by Christopher C. Horner. This book is more polemical than the preceeding ones but it is very eye opening to learn how the Team and governments collude (am I getting conspirational? Read the book) to thrust wave upon wave of AGW agitprop on all levels of society. The book will shock you, but it is documented with copious footnotes.
Huge thanks again to all of you! I’m so impressed with the time you took and information you shared, jimrjbob. Really, helpful! Geeze, so many great suggestions to choose from, such limited time! In any case I will certainly put “Red Hot Lies” and “The Skeptical Environmentalist” at the top of the list but then again, I do so love a mystery ;). Anyhoo, sure do appreciate you all!
Continued to Curious
5) I have often asked myself WTF is going on; how can these supposedly intelligent, educated and committed AGW scientists become such mendacious and nasty cultists who refuse to release data, who massage data, and who spew hatred at those who have the impertinence and temerity to merely question their conclusions. How can this supposed intellectual elite becomes foot soldiers and pawns to this foolish movement and warping of science, all for the end of the Cause? A fabulous answer is provided by Rober Zubrin in his “Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism” (2012). Probalby anyone with a college degree knows at least most of the history found in this book, but it is the way that Zubrin connects the minds and attitudes of such people as Francis Galton, Margaret Sanger, Rudolf Hess,Paul Krugman and Paul Ehrlich with today’s (self-proclaimed) climate savants and their methods and their goals. Zubrin provides a description of and intellectual connection to that movement which is (counting Malthus) hundreds of years old and going strong.
6) Blogs. I find the following blogs helpful: Climate Audit (McIntire), WUWT (Watts), Bishop Hill (Montford). They inform as to the current issues being debated; what the various “sides’ are saying and what seems to be the reasonable position. The comments provide a free insight into many brilliant (and acerbic) minds and they challlenge one to follow and understand the issues under debate.
7) This whole area is so serious and rancorous in the debate thereof that everyone needs to take a break occasionally and laugh. Other than the complete balderdash that certain true believers spew (See, Lewandowsky, Stephan), I suggest the website of Minnesotans for Global Warming. It is a hoot sort of a AGW Onion. Watch at least the following: “If We had Some Global Warming” (to the tune of “If I had a Million Dollars”) and “I’m a Denier” (to the tune of “I’m a Believer”). If you don’t LYAO, please proceed straight to Mann’s RealClimate blog. You’ll be happier there. At least more at home.
P. Solar says:
September 30, 2012 at 9:58 am
redoing the analysis of NH I did this week, for SH we find this:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
With just a quick visual fit your http://i48.tinypic.com/5dsb68.png seems to track the PDO for the SH line. I am just curious if you have plotted those two together?
So lets get this right, more melt water from land ice means more sea ice and Antarctica is warming so we get more sea ice……..whats gone wrong with the Arctic then lots of warming there and lots of glacier melt, wheres all the expected sea ice to?????
For lots of entertaiment go look at the climate forum on weatheroutlook.com Antarctic sea ice thread.
Grey wolf still predicting the downfall of Antarctic glaciers and ice shelfs, this guy never gives up……until the last record went, then he went a bit quite.heres hoping again. we all doomed
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
Are we on the cusp of another mini-ice age? This is only one event, the question is will we break a record again next year and the years after. Stay tuned.
Notice there is no ice attached to the Antarctic Peninsula in the Cape Horn gap. Why would we expect there to be, when the Atlantic, and Pacific oceans both slosh back and forth through that gap twice a day, bulging up underneath ANY floating ice shelves that tried to form there and breaking them off once they get any extent out into the venturi.
It really is tiresome reading these constant whinings about Antarctic Peninsula floating ice shelves breaking up; It is not a prime location for building floating ice shelves. If you want to do that, move around to the bigger gap south of New Zealand, and build your floating ice shelves there; and quit complaining about no ice on a place that is outside the Antarctic circle anyway.
http://i48.tinypic.com/3025d02.png
rate of change plot showing both NSIDC and Cryo Today’s area data.
The latter runs a bit later so we get to see the end of interval where both were increasing together. SH is regular enough that we can guess that it will just be crossing in to positive again, NH lagging a bit behind unless it deviates again.
Interesting to see the accelerating melting that freaks out so many people in NH was accompanied by an opposing increase down below. Just that all eyes were diverted.
Those seeking a more objective view of the science ought to stop playing along with the once a year minimum game. It is clearly not representative of what is happening. Looking at all available data gives a very different picture.
Watts demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of climate science. Put down the perennial sea ice stats, which come and go every year, meaning very little for the Earths cooling mechanism. The true regulation is kept in the land ice, which is shrinking at an alarming rate.
@ur momisugly andrewmharding September 30, 2012 at 3:19 am
Excellent summation, with one tiny correction called for. A battery stores chemical energy, not electrical energy (“…..to charge a battery up and then convert the electrical energy to mechanical energy…..”).
Sorry to sound pedantic! Your summary is excellent otherwise.
IanM
John Brookes says:
September 30, 2012 at 8:26 am
Or in other words, “I have nothing of substance to bring to the discussion and am constantly being proven wrong , so I will do what I am intellectually capable of.” 8^D
I will ask again. Is it ok with you that JoNova’s site has been continually attacked and shut down?
joanne, Antarctic land ice is growing.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/10/icesat-data-shows-mass-gains-of-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-exceed-losses/
“Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992-2008 from ERS and ICESat: Gains exceed losses – Presented by Jay Zwally”
Zwally is not a skeptic.
As for your comment: “Put down the perennial sea ice stats, which come and go every year, meaning very little for the Earths cooling mechanism.”
I was quite sure the SkS crowd insist that shrinking ice lowers the earths albedo … and I believe it has been demonstrated by one poster here that growing antarctic sea ice should increase earths albedo.
Can’t the warmists agree on one whiney comeback?
This posting ranks (to me) as the best, most informative, in months or years. Definitely one of the best. So many good comments- I can’t name my favorites without slighting someone else also deserving of praise.
IanM
alex says:
September 30, 2012 at 12:49 am
Absolutely uninteresting and irrelevant for climate.
The sun does not shine there in winter, so no influence on albedo.
RACook has already debunked this falsehood, but I’d add that because the SH receives 5% more solar radiation in summer than does the NH, the increase in SH sea ice, of necessity in areas closer to the equator than existing sea ice, will have a much greater climate cooling effect, via albedo, than any warming from loss of Arctic ice.
In recent years the SH has seen unusually heavy snowfalls in Australia, NZ, Argentina and this from S Africa last month, so perhaps we are already seeing the effect of the increased sea ice.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/offbeat/story/2012/08/07/snow-south-africa-strange-weather.html
Jeff D says:
September 30, 2012 at 11:07 am
>>
With just a quick visual fit your http://i48.tinypic.com/5dsb68.png seems to track the PDO for the SH line. I am just curious if you have plotted those two together?
>>
Well spotted.
http://i49.tinypic.com/35a9et4.png
Interesting degree of similarity pre-1995 then it goes to shit, possibly coming back in to synch at the end of the record. But then several patterns fell apart 1997-2007. I don’t know what triggered it but there definitely seems to have been a change in climate patterns during that interval.
Was the large EL Nino of 98 the cause of just another symptom.
Maybe that happens at the peak of every 60 cycle or it was a freak. The detailed records are too short to get a longer view on whether this unusual or not.
PS, just spotted, I should have labelled it d/dt (PDO) , I plotted the differential as with the ice data.
Sigh…
I doubt the writer will be doing a side-by-side comparison with the Arctic sea ice any time soon, however. For that, I’ll see these six days and raise you 30 (it’s been well over 30 days since a new record minimum Arctic extent was set, and we’re still hundreds of square km below the minimum today – see here for more http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png). And if anyone can find any way in which the Antarctic sea ice maximum even comes close to the extent of change seen in the Arctic sea ice minimum, I’ll be pretty impressed at their data fu. Whether you look at duration of the record, total extent (or area) change, relative extent (or area) change, or year-on-year trend, the Arctic change is much larger than the Antarctic.
P. Solar says:
September 30, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Well spotted.
http://i49.tinypic.com/35a9et4.png
Interesting degree of similarity pre-1995 then it goes to shit, possibly coming back in to synch at the end of the record. But then several patterns fell apart 1997-2007. I don’t know what triggered it but there definitely seems to have been a change in climate patterns during that interval.
Was the large EL Nino of 98 the cause of just another symptom.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I was kinda thinking there may be an interaction of the AMO perturbing the cycle but I have not a clue on how one would incorporate the possible interlink of the two cycles. Being a chaotic system we might not ever be able to tell.
Paddy: “the Arctic change is much larger than the Antarctic”
The maximum in the arctic this year hit went to 98% of the 1980s average.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/08/28/arctic-ice-2012-a-little-perspective/
The mean is down about 11% over 30 years. 2012 would have been higher than 2007 if not for the cyclone.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/great-arctic-cyclone-2012-caused-the-record-low/
joanne says:
September 30, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Learn something about temperatures there, not suprising ice is growing..
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWantarctis.gif
Go to the Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
That graph shows that the total sea ice has declined by about 5% (approx. a million sq. km.) since the height of the global freezing scare in 1979.
Actually, Anthony did a really good analysis a couple of years ago: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/global-sea-ice-trend-since-1979-surprising/ Depending on how you measure, the total sea ice may have increased since 1979.