The sun – still slumping

The latest solar cycle update graphs have been released by the NOAA SWPC today, and the anemic cycle 24 continues:

The current count isn’t keeping up with the prediction line in red. Not only is the sunspot count low, so is the 10.7cm radio flux and the Ap magnetic index:

One thing that is getting active though is the solar wind, the Boyle Index took a big jump just a couple of hours ago, values over 200 are rather rare:

From Rice University, click for more

As did the speed, note the step function:

ACE RTSW (Estimated) Magnetic Field & Solar Wind

NOAA – Space Weather Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

That jump is likely due to this coronal hole CH532, now directly facing Earth:

What I find most interesting (and troubling) though is this image today of the sun from SDO:

The contrast of the sunspots is really low. The Livingston and Penn plot continues its downward slide:

Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source.

More on the L&P research and the potential for sunspots disappearing soon here: “All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”

More data at the WUWT Solar reference page

 

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of

Is a Maunder Minimum on its way?
Interesting times.

NeedleFactory

What’s with the flat spots in the Boyle Index?

Carsten Arnholm (Norway)

“What I find most interesting (and troubling) though is this image today of the sun from SDO:”
“The contrast of the sunspots is really low.”
The contrast is low due to low quality image processing of the yellow colorized version. For a much better assessment of the sunspots use the non-colorized versions with higher resolution, referred to under the yellow image on the solar reference page.
Either http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_HMII.jpg
or even http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_HMII.jpg
The contrast is fine visually, but the umbras are getting smaller. The L&P effect is clearly real.

Nobel Prize winners, Al Gore and the UN’s IPCC, have assured us Earth’s climate depends on CO2, not on the Sun.

John F. Hultquist

I find the following in the linked-to post:
They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field.
Note: temperatures have risen
So,
What Earth sees is down.
What Earth feels is up.
The first of the above is interpreted by many to predict a cooling Earth.
This makes no sense.
What else is going on?

Thanks for the update, Anthony.
Solar intensity is still on the wane even as the current solar cycle (SC 24) heads toward its maximum next year. If David Archibald is correct, SC 25 could be even weaker. We may be headed for a long-term cool-down, which would impact agricultural production in the northern hemisphere grain belts.
We should be far more worried about a global cooling than global warming. As history shows, extended periods of cold have led to widspread famine and loss of life. A warming planet is a good thing.

RobW

Will we see Ice festivals on the Thames again? Only time (not computer models) will tell.

RobW

Seriously though. These results of solar observations make the case for more research into frost tolerant crops. There seems little doubt the weather/climate of my youth is about to return. I did enjoy the igloos/ snow forts we made and played in.

mizimi

“They also observed that SUNspot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field.”…..is what I think they are saying?

SanityP

For someone who isn’t very fluent in speaking and understanding “sunspots”, this is just another one of those swosh-moments. Can someone who do speak “sunspots”, give us minions an abbreviated “The Idiot’s Guide to sunspots”, please? What does it all mean ? Are we doomed ?

bobbie becker

whats it all mean to the average Joe/Jane?

Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
Please read the whole article, down the page is an update to the Penn and Livingston projection of when the sunspots disappear.

Informative post. Thanks Anthony.
I think the slump in spot numbers will continue.

Thanks, Anthony. Good post.
These are bad news. While nature is getting cooler we getting poorer to avoid warming that is not happening.

@SanityP – A Sunspot is a magnetic storm on the sun. By themselves, sunspots don’t necessarily mean anything, but many believe that the sunspot number is related to Earth temperature. More sunspots = Warmer Earth, Less sunspots = Cooler Earth.

GlynnMhor

It appears more and more that Landscheidt may have been right:
http://www.landscheidt.info/
No mechanism connecting changes in net solar angular momentum to changes in solar cycle strength is offered, but the various Grand Solar Minima do crop up historically in conjunction with perturbations in net angular momentum.
So it’s not a theory, and maybe not yet an hypothesis, but what is called in Science a Law.

Interesting article at Solar Cycle 25
http://sc25.com/index.php?id=395

Rhys Jaggar

‘SanityP says:
September 3, 2012 at 8:29 am
For someone who isn’t very fluent in speaking and understanding “sunspots”, this is just another one of those swosh-moments. Can someone who do speak “sunspots”, give us minions an abbreviated “The Idiot’s Guide to sunspots”, please? What does it all mean ? Are we doomed ?’
1. The sun has things called sunspots on its surface some of the time and the numbers of them have been shown to oscillate from a minimum through a maximum and back down to a minimum in a cycle whose length varies from cycle to cycle but is usually around 11 years.
2. Due to changes in the sun’s magnetic field, the solar cycles are usually grouped in pairs of ‘odd cycles’ and ‘even cycles’. One pair is called a Hale Cycle which is usually around 22 years.
3. It has been shown that certain features in the global weather patterns show cyclical patterns, some of which are linked to one solar cycle, others to the Hale cycle. There are other ‘footprints’ of shorter or longer duration which are also linked to interactions between solar and lunar variables; solar and big planet variables etc etc.
4. The effect of sunspots is to change the intensity of certain radiation emitted from the sun which reaches the earth. Occasionally, these can be major pertubations when features called ‘Coronal Mass Ejections’ or ‘Flares’ occur. These have effects on radio signals, satellites and other things orbiting our earth, so folks like NASA, the Hubble Telescope guys etc etc monitor these things carefully.
5. People have noticed that every few hundred years the sun ‘goes quieter’ or ‘very quiet’ for a few decades to several decades. These periods are called minima and are usually named after someone. The Maunder Minimum in the Middle Ages was particularly quiet, whereas a smaller minimum occurred in the early part of the 19th century and was called the Dalton Minimum.
6. Although understanding is still far from complete, researchers are now trying to link solar activity, specific solar output to weather patterns, either short-term or long-term. Piers Corbyn of Weather Action Ltd is someone who makes a living out of this, being particularly adept at predicting extreme weather events associated with solar/lunar pertubations several months ahead of time. His method continues to evolve, as he would freely admit both to his subscribers and those who read his website (www.weatheraction.com).
7. In general, also, the fewer the sunspots you get in an 11 year cycle, the greater the likelihood there is of cooling of the earth. Conversely a series of high sunspot cycles, as occurred in the 20th century, is postulated/believed to be associated with a warming climate. The Little Ice Age was associated with the Maunder Minimum, which was the quietest period of sunspot activity in the past 500 years.
8. Researchers are also wondering whether frequencies of volcanoes/earthquakes/tsunamis etc can be linked to the sunspot cycles. There is certainly no official scientific proof of this, but people are looking at it and having attempts at predicting such events. Time will tell whether they are accurate or not.
9. Of course, if scientists could predict how sunspot cycles would pan out a few decades in advance, this would be extremely valuable for mankind if our politicians, financial communities and farmers made good use of such information for the benefit of societies. In particular, if we were able to predict a marginalisation of yield in major growing areas like Canada, the Northern Mid West of the USA, Russia/Ukraine etc due to the onset of a mini ice age, then efforts would surely be made to evolve agricultural production through lower latitudes. It’s by no means clear that we are able to do this yet and it may take 100 years more of detailed research before it does become possible.
10. Really detailed monitoring of the Sun has only become possible in the era of satellites and telescopes and therefore data prior to about 1950 isn’t really as accurate as the measurements since 1979, when the first satellite data started coming through. As a result, true understanding of what sunspots looked like back in the 1700s, 1800s etc etc is never going to be as accurate as scientists would like. Nonetheless, data from 24 cycles of sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum is what scientists use for their predictions for the future.
11. Currently, many scientists believe that the current cycle (24) and the next one (25) will be much weaker than those which have preceded them. There is a body of opinion which believes this points to cooling tendencies from the sun, although how any warming of oceans may compensate for that in terms of air temperatures and subsequent land temperatures is less clear. Scientists who believe that solar output is a major contributor to temperature fluctuations on earth are therefore somewhat skeptical about the ‘global warming’ scaremongering going on particular those who postulate increasing carbon dioxide as the major forcing mechanism.
12. It would not be considered ludicrous therefore for politicians to plan for little rise in temperatures for the next 30 years and they should certainly scenario plan for a possibility of significant cooling. Given, however, that the Dalton minimum in the early 19th century only lasted for 2 cycles before solar output increased again, until proven otherwise, it should be assumed that a return to potentially warmer fare may occur thereafter. Politicians will ask scientists, however, to be constantly looking out for signals that the sun may be going into a deeper sleep and they should be planning how to manage a Northern Hemisphere which might become dangerously short of food in the absence of the Sahara not becoming more fertile in response, should a Maunder-style minimum come to pass.
I wouldn’t expect anyone to take this as gospel truth, nonetheless, I reckon it’s probably a fair summary for non-experts and certainly doesn’t say anything which is clearly false.

Brian D

Is sunspot 1560 our first truly equatorial spot group of the cycle? If so, does that indicate we’re truly entering the max?

I am not an alarmist. I would really like the world to keep warming up at the rate (the real one) that we saw over the last century or so. But I also believe that watching the sun is the best way to guess what comes next and it does not look good. I don’t really want to see a frozen river in the middle of London.
We need a warm climate for our food crops. We have 7 billion people to feed!

SanityP

Greg Steele says:
September 3, 2012 at 9:06 am

Thanks. A short and to the point elevator speech there.

Why has the TSI data been recalibrated since Wang Lean Sheeley? Surely TSI is a more valid metric than the sunspot count?

thanks Greg Steele for the explanation but it still leaves out the significance of
“solar wind, the Boyle Index ”
“radio flux and the Ap magnetic index”
“ACE RTSW (Estimated) Magnetic Field & Solar Wind”
“SDO”
“Livingston and Penn plot “,
I agree with
SanityP who says: “For someone who isn’t very fluent in speaking and understanding “sunspots”,{…}What does it all mean ? Are we doomed ?”
AND
bobbie becker who says: “whats it all mean to the average Joe/Jane?”
Can someone give us a summery of what it means?
and Russ, I didn’t see any clarification on Livingston and Penn or anything down the page–the link went to the reblog and then linked back here. circular.

WLF15Y

Just came across this article in Science Daily. Has this been dis-proven? Can’t find much info online about it.
100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun’s Magnetic Cycles
ScienceDaily (June 7, 2002) — HANOVER, N.H. – Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth’s climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun’s magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles,
a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020607073439.htm
I realize it’s a bit old although that doesn’t make it wrong. Any comment from the solar experts posting? If it’s legitimate, seems like a slam dunk…..

It may sound odd, but I would say that the last cycle’s (SC23) peak of activity, gone away more than a decade ago is the important factor in the current temperatures.

kramer

Low solar activity is nothing to worry about because the control knob of the Earth’s temperature is the all powerful global warming gas CO2. It’s so powerful that it has caused the temperature to rise hundreds of years before CO2 started to rise according to ice core data.

The high Boyle index and the “step” in solar wind speed are due to the passage of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun friday evening. Note the temperature is around 100.000K and density is about 10/cm3; with a coronal hole these values would be near 1.000.000K and only a few particles/cm3.
The CME was due to the eruption of a filament. For a clip of this magnificent explosion see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKz18xwPO44 There are many more clips of this event on You Tube.

For SanityP and any others who are not familiar with this subject, may I recomment the book The Sun Kings, by Stuart Clarke. For anyone interested in the history of science, as well as the science itself, I found this to be a fascinating book.

vukcevic says:
September 3, 2012 at 10:23 am
It may sound odd, but I would say that the last cycle’s (SC23) peak of activity, gone away more than a decade ago is the important factor in the current temperatures.

Well, if your hypothesis of an approximately 10 year lag in response to solar activity is correct, then I can see why you say this.

Robuk

Mike Mellor says:
September 3, 2012 at 10:00 am
Why has the TSI data been recalibrated since Wang Lean Sheeley? Surely TSI is a more valid metric than the sunspot count?
Sun spot count is just an indicator, Less spots appear to cause cooler temps on earth, I don`t think our esteemed scientists have figured out the actual mechanism yet.

Steve C

Thanks for an interesting, though not particularly reassuring, post on our subdued sun. Getting older in a country which never misses opportunity or excuse to jack up energy prices, I have a certain grim interest in the situation. Radio propagation is pretty unspectacular most of the time too – I shan’t be suggesting a milliwatt QSO ‘twixt UK and Chico anytime soon.
It just ain’t got that maximum feelin’. Interesting times.

Kev-in-Uk

kramer says:
September 3, 2012 at 10:30 am
Ah, that will be all that invisible, all powerful ‘dark matter’ that only attaches itself to CO2 molecules and causes a backward warp in time to heat former times! Don’t laugh, it’s probably only a matter of time before some climate science ‘team’ comes up with such a theory……OMG, what have I done…LOL

Peter

If there is good evidence that a solar minimum is happening, and that it will have drastic effects on global temperatures, should not some group be trying to get this imformation out to the public.
Because
The global warming scare has pretty much run its course, it doesn’t really grab the average persons attention anymore. So the media is ready for the next planet ending threat. Combine that threat with the fact that, it by its very nature, proves massive fraud by all those people who lied to the poor naive media and you might have the next media meme.
And unlike GW, GC is a genuine threat to humanity. Especially as we are about due to take the big dive into another ice age.

aaron

That curve is pretty flat. I think we could peak early, like the beginning of the year.

gringojay

Cooling ambient air isn’t the only crop limiter. It is colder water irrigating rice during the 10 – 12 day booting-up stage of micro-spores prior to plant reproduction’s seed heading that depresses crop yield. Approximately 4% less sterility occurs for an extra 1* Celsius water temperature. Experiments with different rice seeds irrigated prior to heading show 8 – 70% seed spike sterility if water 19.2*C; other experiments with water 12*C gave sterility from 17 – 79%.

Mark N

So, a little medium to longterm speculation in property might be a good investment in Spain, Greece, etc. Could solve the Euro crisis if they can just hold out.

WTF

In 1998 solar activity wasn’t at particularly high level, and year 2010 was just one year off from solar minimum, although it was the second warmest year on record.
In contrast to that, the most active solar cycle maxima was obseved during solar cycle 19 in 1957, and yet the global average temperature on that year was 0.87 degrees celsius below of that during the last minimum, 2009.
So clearly there are other factors than just the solar activity that enforces the evolution of global temperature. And, if it’s not the shape of solar radiation spectra that explains the current temperature evolution, then there have to be something else to consider.
Could the missing factor be the fact that we have changed the composition of our planet’s atmosphere?

The Wind Speed jump isn’t from the coronal hole, It’s from a filament released CME that impacted us, creating a Moderate Geomagnetic storm. That particular coronal hole wouldn’t get to Earth until later in the week due to the Parker Spiral.

The filament eruption from Friday isn’t mentioned above. But, these are nice videos to see of it.

Different spectrum views:

One view, slow motion. I read that someone dubbed it “The Dragon” because in this view you can see as the material is about to leave the picture it looks like a dragon opening its mouth:

Just the close up of the multicolor view:

Jerker Andersson

Does anyone know if there are any updated data availbale for the following image:
Jet streams
Which was referenced in this post:

I am interested in to see if cycle 25 has shown up yet, a year has passed since that plot and haven’t been able to find any updated data. I may be searching at the wrong place.

Jerker Andersson
Gunga Din

John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 7:54 am
I find the following in the linked-to post:
“They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field.”
Note: temperatures have risen
So,
What Earth sees is down.
What Earth feels is up.
The first of the above is interpreted by many to predict a cooling Earth.
This makes no sense.
What else is going on?
====================================================================
I think “temperatures have risen” is referring to the temperatures of the sunspots, not spots on the Earth.

Schitzree

Does anyone know if the torsional oscillation mentioned in the June 2011 WUWT article ever started up? It’s failure to do so was one of the early signs that was suposed to point to a comming Grand Minima, but I can’t find any other mentions of it past 2011.

Tom in Indy

Question: Do the more densely packed observations toward the end (2011-2012) of the umbral charts have an interpretation? Thanks.

Ulric Lyons

It’s curious how often these sun slumping posts appear just before the sun bursts back to life again. Given that the last two main uplifts in activity (mid Nov 2011 and late Apr 2012) were some 154 days apart, the next repeat would be from around Sept 18th, while recent 27 day peaks would suggest the end of Sept as a focus: http://1.2.3.10/bmi/www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

John F. Hultquist

Gunga Din says:
September 3, 2012 at 12:45 pm
John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 7:54 am
G.D. says: I think “temperatures have risen” is referring to the temperatures of the sunspots, not spots on the Earth.
“Ay, there’s the rub”
As the temperature of the sunspots increases they brighten and do not appear against the background of the Sun – as they do when they are cooler (and darker). This seems like the surface of the Sun, being overall brighter, would be radiating more. And this causes the Earth’s atmosphere to cool — How?
There have been numerous ideas presented in the last 6.5 hours since my first comment. Many folks see the count of sunspots as a proxy for something that alters Earth’s climate. Just what that might be still eludes the best scientific minds. Those suggesting cloud formation and albedo** think they have a dog in this fight. Others argue against that. Because CO2-CAGW fails in so many ways, and we have a lot of alternatives shouting “Look at me!” – I conclude we do not know.
** http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

charles nelson

WTF?!
CO2 currently comprises less than 1/25th part of ONE percent of our atmosphere.
Since the 1950s it has increased from 350ppm to 390ppm or slightly less than 1/100th part of one percent.
The fact that you would attempt to link solar conditions with simultaneous measurements of the earth’s temperature indicates that you might not have much of a grasp of physics.
Do you by any chance believe in ‘homeopathy’?

Gunga Din

John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 2:47 pm
… Because CO2-CAGW fails in so many ways, and we have a lot of alternatives shouting “Look at me!” – I conclude we do not know.
====================================================================
I’m not a gambler. I wouldn’t bet a few trillion, even if I had it, on a theory unless it was a sure thing. CAGW isn’t a sure thing, CO2 or not.
Shoot! We can’t even say for with certainty what the global surface temperature is let alone whether it’s gone up or down. (See Watts et al.)

@ Rhys Jaggar , thank you–that was a great mini course!
Also Jim Cripwell for recommending “The Sun Kings”
Peter says: “The global warming scare has pretty much run its course, it doesn’t really grab the average persons attention anymore.”
Unfortuantely, they already did that one too, in the 70’s. They need something new–I vote for pole reversal.

charles nelson says:
“Do you by any chance believe in ‘homeopathy’?”
For those unfamiliar with homeopathic ‘medicine’, it works something like this:
Dissolve an aspirin in an Olympic-sized swimming pool. Mix well. Then take a teaspoon of that water, put it into a different Olympic-sized pool. Mix well. Then swallow a teaspoon of that water, and your headache will disappear.
Sound preposterous? That’s homeopathy for you. And it’s not much different from the claim that a tiny trace gas will cause disruption of the atmosphere and climate catastrophe.