Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Of course, the media are advancing all kinds of claims about the current drought affecting much of the US, because it is the “worst in fifty years”. They claim that it is clear evidence of global warming, that it shows how much things have changed, that this is the face of global warming.
Figure 1. “Drought in Australia”, or as it is known there, “Australia”.
Does this drought show how things have changed? Yes, for the better. The US drought situation was worse in the 1950s. And before that, it was worse in the 1930s. And before that? Among the first entries when I google “megadrought are these:
Tree rings document ancient Western megadrought
Sierra Nevada 200-year megadroughts confirmed
Scientists find evidence of ancient megadrought in southwestern U.S.
I don’t want to minimize the suffering of those in the drought-affected areas. Droughts are bad news for the people affected. But this is not the worst drought in 50 years—it’s among the best droughts in 5,000 years. So the claim that big droughts are evidence of human-caused warming is a sad joke.
But that’s not my favorite drought joke. It’s this one:
As reported by Agence France Presse (AFP)
Iran drought part of ‘soft war’ by West: VP
The drought in southern Iran is part of a “soft war” launched against the Islamic republic by the West, the Fars news agency quoted an Iranian vice president as saying on Monday.
“I am suspicious about the drought in the southern part of the country,” Hassan Mousavi, who also heads Iran’s cultural heritage and tourism organisation, said at a ceremony to introdue the nation’s new chief of meteorological department.
“The world arrogance and colonist (term used by Iranian authorities to label the West) are influencing Iran’s climate conditions using technology… The drought is an acute issue and soft war is completely evident… This level of drought is not normal.”
You probably didn’t realize that the US was that Machiavellian. You didn’t know we were using our secret weather control technology to create a drought in Iran, while simultaneously not using the same technology to turn off the drought in the US.
That way, you see, we had hoped to throw off Iranian suspicion. We figured that if we had a drought at the same time our secret weather machines were causing the Iranian drought, the Iranians would be fooled into thinking that we couldn’t control the weather… but the crafty Persians are the representatives of an ancient civilization, they were too quick-witted to be taken in by that transparent ploy.
That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it …
w.
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Actually, drought conditions in Iran are completely normal for this time of year. But their monitoring computers have been infected with the “droughtnet” virus, which exaggerates all reported readings: dry becomes extremely dry; wet becomes extremely wet; etc. This is supposed to undermine the country by promoting panic, wasted expenditure of resources, insider power struggles, etc. Similar to Stuxnet, droughtnet is capable of moving from system to system until it finds one with the right indicators to identify it as a weather reporting system. Once safely nestled there, it hides and waits for orders. It is capable of updating with new variants and usually disguises its data alterations by marking them as “statistical adjustments”, with impressive-sounding names. It is also capable of altering older records in the database, which in turn generate alarming, but false, trends.
Some initial analysis of the virus suggest it can also infect computers used in architectural design and planning in order to subtly prefer weather monitoring sites with specific defects which also serve to exaggerate readings, particularly temperature.
The inspiration for the droughtnet virus is not known, but one source claims extensive contacts were made with climatology researchers worldwide during the 2-4 year period before its first known appearance. Since then, the virus has manifested four distinct revisions and there are indications a fifth major variant is in the works.
No group or nation has officially claimed responsibility for “droughtnet”, but informed suspicion centers on the US, Israel, and Pennsylvania State University. Normally, we would expect some loose lips in the Obama administration to leak details of US involvement, but in this case senior officials may squelch any suggestion the drought is not both real and unprecedented, unless claiming otherwise would enhance the President’s re-election prospects.
/sarc off
steveta_uk says:
July 17, 2012 at 8:52 am
Perhaps there isn’t an OFF position – so having ‘tested’ the machines in the US first, the situation can only get worse!
Ah but we found out how to put ours in reverse in the UK!
BTW in regard to my comment above, TWC’s graphic for Peak % Area in Severe to Extreme Drought shows July ’34 at 63.1% versus 32.7% currently, which would seem to indicate that 2012 “rivals the Dust Bowl” about as closely as I “rivaled” Kareem Abdul Jabbar for No. 1 center in the NBA BITD.
.Mike Bromley the Kurd says:
July 17, 2012 at 9:10 am
I find this a bit odd…the border between Iran & Iraq runs along the drainage divide of the Zagros for the most part. In order to divert water back to the Iranian side, the Iranians would have to enter Iraq and dam the headwaters of streams that flow down the Iraqi side of the divide.
The border meanders, and it’s mostly defined by the high ground — about half the streams and small rivers between Kirkuk (many of the Kurds Saddam relocated are moving back, in case you were curious) and Baghdad have their sources in Iran.
Mike — were your folks Kurmanji or Sorani speakers?
Gail Combs says:
July 17, 2012 at 11:48 am
YOU STOLE that rain from IRAN, just ask them.
Here is how the UK stole that rain from the middle east. link
I like that link and it made me think that if a cyclone is a depression (because we get depressed when it rains) then an anti cyclone should be an elation!
Not American weather machines. Dick Cheney’s weather machine. The same one that spun up Katrina and aimed it directly at New Orleans. Of course that evil man doesn’t care that he has it set to create drought here, to!
I joke of course, but there are people who will believe anything.
Meanwhile, this side of the Pond we have had the wettest summer in living memory – hot on the heels of a spring dry spell that we were solemnly assured was going to persist forever.
All a result of global warming, naturally.
When I see a headline such as: “Worst drought in 50 years” my immediate reaction is that 51 years ago it was worse than today. This does *not* make me believe that modern CO2 production has made things worse. No proof nor even an indication that greater CO2 has an effect.
Minor typo in the Yahoo/ Agence France Presse (extra characters at the end) result in an error.
[Thanks, fixed. -w]
Yes we stole the rain from Iran and now we cannot get rid of it. /sarc
What really puzzles me is that every evening at present here the Sun puts in a brief appearance some time before sunset as if to say yah-boo sucks to you.
Why just every evening?
Personal opinion: Droughts are less severe at places such as Aus and US because vast tracts of land are now farms. Irrigation and water storage systems means more evaporation and evapotranspiration, hence less severe droughts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures were slightly lower than say 100 years ago in and around these farming regions.
Jim G says:
July 17, 2012 at 9:40 am
TomRude says:
July 17, 2012 at 8:53 am
No it’s Hillary’s carbon footprint:
“Since becoming secretary of state in 2009, Clinton has logged 351 days on the road, traveled to 102 countries and flown a whopping 843,839 miles, according to the State Department”
“[SNIP: You may well be right, but this doesn’t add to the topic at hand and really is a bit too far. -REP]”
Agree it added nothing to the topic other than possibly humor, depending upon your politics, but “too far”, come on, there was much, much worse in the news accounts of those days. But all that aside, mea culpa.
It rained .94 of an inch in Midland, TX last night. I don’t care how it got there.
Study says Mayan civilization was wiped out by drought:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/228799.html
“The research published in the journal Nature says a continuous 25 to 40 percent drop in rainfall reduced water supplies in the homeland of the ancient Maya civilization located in what is now southern Mexico and Guatemala.
Researchers at the Yucatan Centre for Scientific Research in southern Mexico and the University of Southampton used modeling techniques in order to estimate the rates of rainfall and evaporation between 800 and 950 CE, the decline period of Maya civilization.”
In Australia – it’s Floods, Floods, Floods – are all caused by AGW.
Of course, when we had the droughts – it was Droughts, Droughts, Droughts are all caused by AGW….
Nothing changes with the Alarmists except the content of their lies
Attempting to generate political capital from an instantaneous weather event…now wherever did the Iranians get that idea?
With wheat prices at record highs due to weather issues, its interesting to look at what they are for the 4 biggest wheat exporters.
USA – drought
EU – too much rain and flooding
FSU – drought
Australia – cold and frosts
If you are surprised by cold weather, its because wheat grows through the winter in Australia.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/13/australia-wheat-weather-idUSL3E8ID1NL20120713
with apologies to the Kingston Trio
They’re rioting in Africa
They’re starving in Spain
There’s hurricanes in Florida and Texas needs rain
The whole world is festering with unhappy souls
The French hate the Germans
The Germans hate the Poles
Italians hate Yugoslavs
South Africans hate the Dutch
And I don’t like anybody very much
But we can be tranquil and thankful And proud
for man’s been endowed With a mushroom shaped cloud
And we know for certain that Some lovely day
someone will set the spark off And we will all be blown away
They’re rioting in Africa
There’s strife in Iran
What nature doesn’t do to us will be done by our fellow man
I wouldn’t dismiss the Iranian claim so quickly. Southern Iran is downwind from Eastern Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both of which have undergone recent rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, especially fossil fuel intensive industries. There will have been substantial increases in aerosols from these places and aerosols are known to have large effects on precipitation downwind from their source.
Regardless of what the Iranians say, the drought in the US is real and severe. Many areas expect 50% or more loss in corn crops. This WILL have an impact, nationally and internationally. See the USDA crop reports: http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/weather_weekly/weather_weekly-07-11-2012.pdf
By the way, according to Flannery, expert in soil moisture physics, the dry soil in the above photograph can’t get wet again when it rains, because it is ‘too hot’ from the drought, so the rivers won’t run, and the waters won’t reach the dams.
Don’t laugh, this sort of argument was used to build costly desalination plants instead of cheap dams, which the taxpayer in Australia is now paying for.
As a teenager a friend of mine supported a book which said that Cyclone Tracy’s erratic course before it smashed straight into Darwin was clear evidence of being steered by the ‘Illuminati/World Government’ using secret weather technology originally developed by Tesler. It was called the Cosmic Conspiracy.
Paranoid delusions feed on themselves, they only need the slightest rationale for whatever suits the delusion. Air could be invisible because your enemy made it that way.
20 years later, he is now (still) more or less unemployable.
Shows what it takes to get a job as head of Iran’s Cultural Heritage and Tourism. Why is political point scoring so self-perpetuating and reinforcing?. Whoever designed this nature of ours has a lot to answer for.
Is it too late in the growing season for corn to create a drought in the corn belt of the US to stop the corn harvest? The ethanol mandated by the government in my gas is costing me a small fortune in my MPG (miles per gal) reduction.
The Iranians may be right. The US has run amuck!
“Drought in Australia”, or as it is known there, “Australia”.
Except when Queensland turns into Lake Queensland.