University of Nebraska claims record drought in the USA? Not so fast…

From the University of Nebraska-Lincoln  comes a news release about the 12 year old U.S. Drought Monitor dataset, proclaiming “record worst ever” as if this has some relevance in history. Sorry, I have to call BS on this. Take June 1934 for example:

Well over half of the USA then was in moderate to severe to extreme drought.NOAA wrote in 2002 describing the summer drought then:

The most extensive national drought coverage during the past 100 years (the period of instrumental record) occurred in July 1934 when 80 percent of the contiguous United States was in moderate to extreme drought.

Compare that to June 2012 where UNL claims 47 percent of the CONUS is experiencing “some level of drought”:

Color me unimpressed with the University of Nebraska’s PR fear mongering which can easily be dispelled in a few seconds of Internet search. Source: NCDC here. Now let’s see how many feckless reporters pick up this UNL press release  from Eurekalert and run with it as “worst ever” without bothering to check history.

US Drought Monitor shows record-breaking expanse of drought across US

Nearly 47 percent of nation experiencing some level of drought, officials say

More of the United States is in moderate drought or worse than at any other time in the 12-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor, officials from the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln said today.

Analysis of the latest drought monitor data revealed that 46.84 percent of the nation’s land area is in various stages of drought, up from 42.8 percent a week ago. Previous records were 45.87 percent in drought on Aug. 26, 2003, and 45.64 percent on Sept. 10, 2002.

Looking only at the 48 contiguous states, 55.96 percent of the country’s land area is in moderate drought or worse – also the highest percentage on record in that regard, officials said. The previous highs had been 54.79 percent on Aug. 26, 2003, and 54.63 percent on Sept. 10, 2002.

“The recent heat and dryness is catching up with us on a national scale,” said Michael J. Hayes, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at UNL. “Now, we have a larger section of the country in these lesser categories of drought than we’ve previously experienced in the history of the Drought Monitor.”

The monitor uses a ranking system that begins at D0 (abnormal dryness) and moves through D1 (moderate drought), D2 (severe drought), D3 (extreme drought) and D4 (exceptional drought).

Moderate drought’s telltale signs are some damage to crops and pastures, with streams, reservoirs or wells getting low. At the other end of the scale, exceptional drought includes widespread crop and pasture losses, as well as shortages of water in reservoirs, streams and wells, creating water emergencies. So far, just 8.64 percent of the country is in either extreme or exceptional drought.

“During 2002 and 2003, there were several very significant droughts taking place that had a much greater areal coverage of the more severe and extreme drought categories,” Hayes said. “Right now we are seeing pockets of more severe drought, but it is spread out over different parts of the country.

“It’s early in the season, though. The potential development is something we will be watching.”

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint endeavor by the National Drought Mitigation Center at UNL, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and drought observers across the country.

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To examine the monitor’s current and archived national, regional and state-by-state drought maps and conditions, go to http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

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Sunspot
July 6, 2012 3:40 pm

Aaaahhh, you got to keep that man made global warming dream alive otherwise you miss out on funding, getting your name up in lights or selling papers.

July 6, 2012 6:02 pm

Public radio Marketplace is running a feature on the current heat wave, mentioning one earlier heat wave in 1995, but carefully skipping all the other much bigger ones.
“We need to prepare ourselves for a world in which these events will be happening more and more often.”
Idiots.
I remembered that 1887 had a big blizzard, so I assumed it would also be a stuck-jet year. Sure enough, there was a long and serious heat wave in the East, accompanied by deadly straight-line winds. Hmm. Sounds familiar.
It’s reported here in an archived 1933 paper, which was looking back at 1887 to remind people that 1933 wasn’t so bad! Of course the journalists of 1933 weren’t hopelessly stupefied and lobotomized by today’s infinite pile of fashionable toxic ratpoop, so the article is written in a lively and objective way. Wouldn’t it be nice if we had sane journalists today?
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1876&dat=19330730&id=mj4sAAAAIBAJ&sjid=pMoEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6839,4290783

Jesse
July 6, 2012 8:45 pm

Anthony,
This post is overreaction and misrepresentation. The press release was clearly about the history of the relatively new drought monitor they have. The focus of which is monitoring drought as it is ongoing. The release does not contain the phrase “record worse ever” which you place in quotes. By this you misrepresent the press release and the University of Nebraska. I expect better from you.
You are correct. Feckless reporters may well take this and misrepresent it for The Cause. This is important. However, that is not the university’s fault. They clearly made an effort, however slight of saying “history of the U.S. Drought Monitor” NOT of history in general. Yeah, journalists for The Cause are wont to go there, there’s no need for you to do it.
This post could be about how UNL may become used by feckless reporters. Or how they should be more careful to prevent being misused.

July 6, 2012 10:14 pm

I wonder if the authorities should browse through a few old newspapers to get a better idea about hot weather, droughts and climate change. It’s pretty easy to look at a few stories dating back to the 19th century in Australian newspapers. Follow the links below and you won’t stop laughing …
Sydney Morning Herald – Glaciers, Icebergs Melt As World Gets Warmer (29 Sep 1951)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/18233023
Sydney Morning Herald – The Earth is Getting Warmer (24 Sep 1949)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/18131092
The Daily News – Climate – Evidence of Change – Interesting Speculations (14 Mar 1927)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/83047235
West Gippsland Gazette – Change in Climate (19 Mar 1912)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/68657631
The Daily News – The North Pole – Causes of Change of Climate Change (16 Apr 1923)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/77891667
Cairns Post – Temperate Arctic (3 Mar 1923)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/40174175
Examiner – Is the Earth Getting Warmer? (26 May 1906)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/38087689
Worker – Heat Wave in America (10 Jul 1913)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/70826226
Clarence and Richmond Examiner – Record Heat Wave (24 Aug 1911)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/61615246
The North Queensland Register – Heat Wave in America (30 Sep 1896)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/85420248
The Daily News – Heat Wave Abated (10 Jun 1925)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/84060564
The North Queensland Register – The Heat Wave in America (8 Jul 1901)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/84911725
etc, etc.
In the 1940s, it seems that Greenland and the glaciers were all melting, sea levels were rising, temperatures had climbed for a hundred years, the mercury was up 2C over the past 40 years, species had migrated hundreds of kilometres, Kilimanjaro ice was disappearing, etc, yet our grandparents cared so little for us they didn’t introduce a CO2 tax.

Ilma630
July 9, 2012 1:54 am

Just do as we did in the UK, and declare. Hosepipe ban. We then had the wettest June for a long time. And who says Gid doesn’t have a sense of humour 🙂