I’ve been given a link in email today to a public forecast page for July by weather prognosticator Piers Corbyn, which you can investigate in full yourself here. I find his web pages and forecasts hard to read, and even harder to accept any more, because in my opinion, he presents them like a carnival barker with overuse of exclamation points, bright colors, over bolded texts, random font changes, and fantastic claims. It tends to set off my BS meter like some tabloid newspapers do. Here’s his USA forecast for July:
[UPDATE: 7/8/12 – The full USA forecast has been made available by Mr. Corbyn and is available here for your inspection: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/usa-1207-july-inc-public-summary-news-page-full-fc-key-usa-maps-and-extremes-slat8a-prod-29jun.pdf ]
Some people say however, that despite all that unnecessary gaudiness, he makes accurate predictions. Because he’s made a public forecast and advertised its availability, urging “people to pass the links on”, here’s a chance to find out if he demonstrates the skill that is claimed.
He made this bold claim yesterday:
“Terrible weather is coming the world over this July so WeatherAction has issued free summary long range forecasts for USA and for Europe…”
He sounds like Joe Romm or Bill McKibben talking about “climate disruption”. Of course, it could just be another July in the northern hemisphere. Here’s the rest:
The USA pdf link is issued today on July 4th to go with the Europe link issued the day before. We urge people to pass the links on.
“We also expect very serious near simultaneous solar-activity driven deluges and stormy conditions around the world during our top Red Warning R5 and R4 periods. Any communication of the forecasts must acknowledge WeatherAction”
– Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecasters
WeatherAction Free Summary Forecast for July USA:-
“Could it get worse? Yes!” – Extreme thunderstorms, giant hail and ‘out-of control’ forest fires’
pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No32.pdf
(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3y28b/full )
WeatherAction PUBLIC warning Europe July 2012 “Off-the-scale” Flood & Fire extremes likely (WA12No31)
pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No31.pdf
(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3p7pm/full )
The USA forecast map he provides is a bit hard to read, since it seems he scanned it in from print…note the dot patterns in the graphics. I present it here from his PDF page.
Here’s his forecast page for Europe:
He lists “off scale” weather in NW Europe is one of the claims. I wonder how one should define “off scale” weather.
As Carl Sagan once said:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
So now that Mr. Corbyn has put forth some extraordinary claims, we can catalog here the evidence to support those claims, and revisit the results at the end of the month. I urge readers to continue to post both pro and con evidence here as the month progresses. I’ll put a link to this thread in the WUWT sidebar so readers can add information that might be relevant.
Since Corbyn is a fellow climate skeptic, let’s give him a fair but factual evaluation to find out if these claims hold up, of if he’s simply following the path of some prognosticators of the past, such as Jeane Dixon, who made claims so broad that even a small kernel of happenstance occurrences after the fact were used to justify confirmation of the prediction. According to the Wikipedia page on Dixon:
John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions.
I don’t know that is what is going on here with Corbyn or not, but since he’s put out an open 
forecast, let’s find out. Inquiring minds want to know.
UPDATE: here’s a video of Corbyn explaining his methods:
Does anyone have an old copy of the Magazine ‘Analog” from about 1962? It carried a fact article that if I remember properly was entitled “Is Astrology Bunkum?” The magazine used weather forecasts from the planetary positions and compared them to the USA weather bureau and predictions by roulette wheel. The planets one hands down. I lost my copy in a house move.
So, it’s that he thinks we’re headed for another Ice Age. So it just has to be one or the other.
Looking at the Hadley Centre records going back to 1766, summer rainfall (J/J/A) for England & Wales, which averages 196mm for 1971-2000, exceeded 300mm thirty times, or about once every 8 years.
However since 1958, the only occurrence was 2007, which suggests we have been in a run of unusually dry summers in recent decades. The wettest years were 1879 and 1912.
If July and August come out on average this year will be around 290mm.
I’ll post up in more detail tomorrow.
Piers is better than the Met Office, which admittedly is not saying much.
The Met office stopped their quarterly forecasts because they were hopeless. Can anyone remember their infamous “barbeque summer” farcecast?
However, the Met Office are about to get a new computer (£42,000,000). I am not building up my hopes that forecasts will be better, but at least they will be quicker.
Currently we have from the Met Office for where I live:-
“Issued at – 05 Jul 2012, 13:47
Valid from – 05 Jul 2012, 14:00
Valid to – 05 Jul 2012, 23:55
Scattered heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely at times on Thursday, particularly during the afternoon and evening, with the potential for some torrential downpours in places. Southeastern areas of England are at less risk than areas further north, with any showers there tending to clear later.
The public should be aware that these showers, where they occur, may lead to surface water flooding.”
Actual weather – bone dry.
Anyone thinking that SLAT must involve a lag between incoming solar wind conditions + lunar position and resulting weather forecast should note this post from Piers in the “Biggest solar storm since 2005” thread in late January:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/24/biggest-solar-storm-since-2005/#comment-874936
Alan the Brit says: We shall see what develops, if he wasn’t any good at it he would have gone out of business by now!
False logic. Have the Met Office gone out of business?
Anthony: You do not have to wait you can check Piers record historically. Presumably past weather is recorded in detail so all you have to do is obtain his forecasts and check them against the actual wearther, Earth Quakes etc. Also to be fair you should do the same with the Met Off and a U.S. weather forecasters. I look forward to the results.
As I sit here in Derbyshire, England, we’ve just been visited by a downpour extreme in both intensity and duration. The Met office never forecast this. Latest forecast at 18:00 was for rain to move into England from the West by dawn tomorrow.
For a fairer assessment would it not be better to pay for the full 9 page forecast? Seems this 1 page taster is designed to get people to do just that! If my business depended on the weather I would subscribe for Piers forecasts, I find them much more accurate than the MO for the longer range, the May forecast put out in the middle of April saved me a ton of work replanting seedlings. However the forecasts are too expensive to justify for a hobby weather watcher like me, so I make do with the rather ambiguous free summaries.
Looking at the warm spot in the North Atlantic SST anomaly map pointed out by Mr. Tisdale the other day, coupled with the Southerly track of the jet-stream viewable on the stomsurfing model [1], I think it is safe to assume the UK will be getting above average rainfall for the next couple of weeks.
[1] http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
Anyway, what Piers predict can’t be worse than the long range weather forecasts we hear sometimes from the multimillion dollar/euro computer programs of the different Meteorological Services (you know the notorious “soft winters without snow” forecasts of the UK Met Office…). A few months ago, the different programs were tested on their predictions and the skill was about 50%, as good as what the average fortune teller would do. With a crystal ball at a fraction of the price of the computers…
From a graphic design point of view, I think Piers’ website looks fantastic. In an age of overly-polished, off-the-shelf, formulaic, WordPress-style dull conformity, it is refreshing indeed to see a website governed more by its proprietor’s enthusiasm for his work than by a preoccupation with the vagaries of fashion which one normally associates with a high street teenage boutique.
The web needs far more websites like Piers’. And it is a lesser place without them.
Co2Sceptic says:
July 5, 2012 at 10:51 am
As I pointed out above, his forecast for July is so vague as to be useless. If you ask believers, they’ll tell you that astrology IS right MOST of the time … but again, that’s just because the prognostications are vague and can apply to just about any result.
Is Piers more accurate than the UK Met service? Near as I can tell, most astrologers are more accurate than the met service, but hey, that’s just me …
w.
P. Solar says:
July 5, 2012 at 11:16 am
False logic. The Met Office is supported by the government and loses nothing if it is wrong. Not only can it not go out of business, like most government agencies it is harder to kill than a Hydra.
Piers, on the other hand, is running a private business that must sell its wares to survive.
w.
Piers has done an exemplary job with his forecasts. The weather we are experiencing is indicative of global cooling, not global warming. A cooler climate is more prone to severe droughts. As you have pointed out on numerous occasions, the sun is entering a dead phase, which will portend 30+ years of severe global cooling. We last saw this in the 17th through 19th centuries, when ice festivals used to be held on the River Thames and snow and cold would last from late fall into mid-spring in parts of North America.
P. Solar says:
July 5, 2012 at 11:16 am
Alan the Brit says: We shall see what develops, if he wasn’t any good at it he would have gone out of business by now!
False logic. Have the Met Office gone out of business?
——————————————————————————————————————————-
The MO is not in business. It has a guaranteed income from our taxes.
Piers depends on customers making a choice to pay for his forecasts. And they can stop if they don’t like the product.
Dr. Corbin’s did his science degrees at a college in the London’ Exhibition Road
(I went there too), so no surprise that his a bit of a ‘showman’.
http://www.exhibitionroad.com/
Adrian Kerton says, July 5, 2012 at 10:54 am
Could it be this one by any chance? FIrst article looks like it might fit:
http://www.isfdb.org/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?56773
You can pan through the issues via the backward and forward links next to Notes: heading.
Perhaps rather than just report on Corbyns long range forecast (July), you should compare the Met Office long range forecast (Monday)?
As an Englishman I find him an embarrassment. I’ve attended one or two meetings in the House of Commons committee rooms where he has made presentations and sadly I have to admit he fits the Steve Jones description of ‘Pratt’ (sorry US readers you may have to look that up somewhere). I agree with Anthony about his written stuff; fonts, colours and what have you – he hasn’t a clue. He’s on the right side, though I think he presents a wonderful target for the other side and his net effect is negative.
Hi Willis Eschenbach
When you mention:
[i]his forecast for July is so vague as to be useless[/i]
Have you see the FULL forecast? Or just the FRONT PAGE?
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof” is itself a subjectively defined requirement. By this means many can and do reject out of hand anything they feel like rejecting. I recommend that the requirement be stated objectively:
“Fundamental conjectures require fundamental proofs.”
I’m reminded of this. (Note: March 15th, 2011 was right after the Japanese earthquake.)
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: David Burton
Date: Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 6:32 AM
Subject: WeatherAction
To: climatesceptics@yahoogroups.com
I remember that when I received this email (March 4, 2011) I thought, “No way, Piers, that you can possibly forecast earthquakes from solar effects!”
I’m less certain, now. Wow.
Dave
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Piers Corbyn
Date: Fri, Mar 4, 2011 at 2:33 AM
Subject: [Climate Sceptics] WeatherAction issues extreme (TL) weather warnings for USA & Philippines and gives subscribers MORE Forecasts for LESS + VIDS & NEWS
…
After New Zealand quake Piers Corbyn warns: “Expect more earthquakes world-wide for two years”
http://bit.ly/fAUnOO
…
@ur momisugly Bryan Hunt
Well for the next best thing for NA? How about Farmer’s Almanac?
This was posted at the Farmer’s Almanac site on April 16. I’ll let you decide whether they nailed it or not.
This summer, we’ve predicted that unseasonably hot and dry weather will be on tap for the Rockies and Great Plains, as well as the eastern states, while the Pacific Northwest will see below-normal precipitation.
On the other side of the coin, the Great Lakes and the Midwest could have above-normal precipitation, from locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. Across the Southeast it will be typical summer weather, complete with oppressively high humidity, very warm-to-hot temperatures and the ongoing threat of pop-up showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the late afternoons and evenings. The Southwest should also experience normal summer weather: hot and mainly dry, save for the seasonal monsoon showers and scattered thunderstorms over the deserts.
For Canada, our long-range formula indicates unseasonably warm to hot-and-dry weather across eastern Quebec and the Maritimes from New Brunswick northeast into Newfoundland.
Above-normal temperatures are also forecast for southern and eastern Saskatchewan, nearly all of Manitoba, and northern and western Ontario. Very dry conditions are anticipated for parts of southern Saskatchewan, all of Manitoba, plus northern and western Ontario. These very dry conditions could even spread north as into the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. British Columbia and Alberta should also see below-normal precipitation, though not to the extreme degree of the provinces farther east.
Southern and eastern Ontario, including the Great Lakes and areas in adjacent western and central Quebec, could see above-normal precipitation, in locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Look for a hot spell just about everywhere in late June, with temperatures soaring into the 100s in many areas, followed by stormy weather that will hopefully cool things down. The heat will remain turned up across North America in July, with unsettled conditions, thunderstorms, and another exceptional heat wave toward the middle of the month.
Extremes are often caused by Rossby Waves in the Jet Stream. There are patterns of northern hemispheric pressure systems, temperature, and precipitation that are typical of positive and negative phases of this atmospheric oscillation and that can be used for weather pattern variation predictions. The Sun has nothing to do with exteme weather events.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml
RyanMaue: I agree completely. Often severe weather occurs at night.
His style and website may look exaggerated, but I deeply respect Piers Corbyn for being the only one out there who gradually develops a technique for predicting weather 30 to 45 days ahead.
Yes, he got it wrong sometimes, and he has admitted so various times, that’s why he has now arrived at SLAT (Solar Lunar Action Technique) version 8 last time I read it. His SLAT technique is work in progress.
Basically his hypothesis is that solar activity drives the jet stream (with corrections for lunar influences), and the jet stream drives the large weather events. As far as I know he did correctly predict the large heat wave in Russia and the large flooding at the same time in Pakistan.
I think his SLAT technique offers a lot more perspective on reliable long-term weather predictions that the multi-million dollar (or pound or euro) supercomputers. As Piers Corbyn in his somewhat over the top style complains “the Met Office gets millions from the taxpayers (for purchasing new supercomputers) to get it wrong quicker”, and I certainly think there is a lot of truth to that.
Piers’ technique is based on actual physical phenomena, whereas the standard meteorological models so far leave out the variables that Piers takes into account. Past 14 days the standard meteorological models work with so many variables and chaotic possibilities as to become totally meaningless, whereas Piers’ technique seems to get it right quite a few times.
Finally, please keep in mind that Piers has only recently begun turning his attention to predictions for North America. He is more experienced with Europe, as he has admitted various times.