I’ve been given a link in email today to a public forecast page for July by weather prognosticator Piers Corbyn, which you can investigate in full yourself here. I find his web pages and forecasts hard to read, and even harder to accept any more, because in my opinion, he presents them like a carnival barker with overuse of exclamation points, bright colors, over bolded texts, random font changes, and fantastic claims. It tends to set off my BS meter like some tabloid newspapers do. Here’s his USA forecast for July:
[UPDATE: 7/8/12 – The full USA forecast has been made available by Mr. Corbyn and is available here for your inspection: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/usa-1207-july-inc-public-summary-news-page-full-fc-key-usa-maps-and-extremes-slat8a-prod-29jun.pdf ]
Some people say however, that despite all that unnecessary gaudiness, he makes accurate predictions. Because he’s made a public forecast and advertised its availability, urging “people to pass the links on”, here’s a chance to find out if he demonstrates the skill that is claimed.
He made this bold claim yesterday:
“Terrible weather is coming the world over this July so WeatherAction has issued free summary long range forecasts for USA and for Europe…”
He sounds like Joe Romm or Bill McKibben talking about “climate disruption”. Of course, it could just be another July in the northern hemisphere. Here’s the rest:
The USA pdf link is issued today on July 4th to go with the Europe link issued the day before. We urge people to pass the links on.
“We also expect very serious near simultaneous solar-activity driven deluges and stormy conditions around the world during our top Red Warning R5 and R4 periods. Any communication of the forecasts must acknowledge WeatherAction”
– Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecasters
WeatherAction Free Summary Forecast for July USA:-
“Could it get worse? Yes!” – Extreme thunderstorms, giant hail and ‘out-of control’ forest fires’
pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No32.pdf
(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3y28b/full )
WeatherAction PUBLIC warning Europe July 2012 “Off-the-scale” Flood & Fire extremes likely (WA12No31)
pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No31.pdf
(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3p7pm/full )
The USA forecast map he provides is a bit hard to read, since it seems he scanned it in from print…note the dot patterns in the graphics. I present it here from his PDF page.
Here’s his forecast page for Europe:
He lists “off scale” weather in NW Europe is one of the claims. I wonder how one should define “off scale” weather.
As Carl Sagan once said:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
So now that Mr. Corbyn has put forth some extraordinary claims, we can catalog here the evidence to support those claims, and revisit the results at the end of the month. I urge readers to continue to post both pro and con evidence here as the month progresses. I’ll put a link to this thread in the WUWT sidebar so readers can add information that might be relevant.
Since Corbyn is a fellow climate skeptic, let’s give him a fair but factual evaluation to find out if these claims hold up, of if he’s simply following the path of some prognosticators of the past, such as Jeane Dixon, who made claims so broad that even a small kernel of happenstance occurrences after the fact were used to justify confirmation of the prediction. According to the Wikipedia page on Dixon:
John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions.
I don’t know that is what is going on here with Corbyn or not, but since he’s put out an open 
forecast, let’s find out. Inquiring minds want to know.
UPDATE: here’s a video of Corbyn explaining his methods:
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1. Piers admits he got the last 10 days of may wrong and has learnt from it.
2. His method is to develop a form of expert system into which he puts solar/lunar data. his present predictions are based on the low magnetic field of the sun making weather similar to the early years of the LIA.
3. His visceral hatred of the IPCC/Met. Office modelling scam is based on the dilution of standard meteorology in favour of an imaginary CO2 effect. The Met. Office meteorologists are fighting back against the dumb modellers but have clearly been forbidden from bringing Piers into the fold.
For the UK, I predict seagulls with speeds up to 30 mph in coastal areas, with the possibility of ice-cream later.
Canadian weather forecasters have predicted a warm and dry summer for Central Canada .Personally I see this extra warm weather extending all the way to September possibly. A similar pattern existed in 1949. So all the erratic weather events associated with extra warm weather are a real possibility especially at the boundary areas between the warm and colder regions . Some of these erratic events have already happened to date in June like extra rain and heavy floods in some areas, hail, high wind and tornadoes , power black outs, etc. Europe often gets some of its weather from across the Atlantic as can be seen via the current jet stream patterns . Some of this western warmer air is going to get to Europe like the heat from El Nino events does but slightly lagged . So some of Corbyn’s predictions are no surprise. I am not surprised at his predictions . They may not all happened to the degree he states but he quite rightly is waving a flag of a threat that may be real for some parts of Europe and North America.
I agree, it’s a shame that Piers behaves the way he does. His site is appalling and his forecasts over sensationalised. However, his forecasts, which are based on betting methods, do appear to be better than the standard Met off (which appear to be useless).
I’m on holiday in SW england from france and have watched carefully all this weeks forecasts. I give the Met Off 0/10. This is where their HQ is. We saw rain where they forecast sun and cloud and rain in lieu of cloud. Not one day correct.
Regarding the UK the current weather warnings from the Met Office for Friday are fairly horrible http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/
and from the local Manchester paper they are reporting 50mm rain
http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1582677_weather-warning-flooding-alert-as-50mm-of-rain-is-forecast-to-fall-in-greater-manchester?all_comments=1
I agree with everyone else about Piers’ graphic design – not the easiest on the eye. But it’s a bold move and (while not looking forward to the predicted weather) I wish him well with it.
I think an appropriate response to people who point out that (for instance) it wasn’t the coldest UK May in a century is to point out that Piers, like any forecaster, updates his prognosis later if things start deviating from his forecasts, but also improves his model. The first three weeks of May fitted his prediction very well, and I recall from watching the charts at the time that during the fourth week there were a couple of shonking great lows which sat to the west of us all week. Assuming that Piers’ original assessment was that those lows would be over the UK in the fourth week, he would likely have been spot on for the whole month – and from a darn sight further ahead than the Met Office would try. As it was, he revised his theory and came up with a newer version which (presumably) tried to build in whatever blocked those lows from reaching us.
But as Alan the Brit says, if he wasn’t any good at it he wouldn’t still be in business. FWIW, the Met Office promised us torrential downpours here in the Midlands only this morning; as I write it’s a shade over 26°C and 21% RH outside, with the sun out most of the afternoon. Now, I’m off to re-wax my jacket!
Chris Hope says:
July 5, 2012 at 9:05 am
I analysed Piers Corbyn’s prediction for May in the UK at http://www.chrishopepolicy.com/2012/05/how-cold-is-may/
Short answer: He was wrong. I will be interested to see how wrong he is in July
So where is it that you work, Chris? His forecast was 75% correct. It was far more accurate than the “above normal temps, below normal rain of your met off. Don’t expect too many people to ask for your analyses techniques. They are abysmal.
Thank you Anthony for taking a measured, cool, truly scientific look at a hot, sometimes-inspired guy. Your points are well made.
Slabadang says: July 5, 2012 at 9:07 am
Lets be fair and critical at the same time!
Ive followed Piers for many years now and I am very certain in my conclusions that Piers has some prediction skills far beyond standard meteorology. But hes a pure disaster when it comes to structure management and communication…
This looks like a considered statement, thanks. My own impression is that Corbyn used to win overall (not every time) at the betting shops on his forecasts, and they had to stop him betting. I also seem to remember that Boris the Mayor of London listened to him rather than the Met Office and thereby London was prepared for the freak snow and ice we had December 2010.
A starting point is to check the measurements of July rain and see if any of those are off-scale. I look forward to the thunder-flood measurement graphs. I think the giant hail might depend upon the current beanstalk crops. Crystal Gale’s tour schedule does not list Europe at all, so damage is not likely from her; I don’t know how many other gales will be there.
RyanMaue: +1
I think it’s a tad disingenuous to take one set of predictions and grill the guy if it does not completely materialize, just as Chris Hope did in his pubescent blog. So the last ten days of May changed the forecast… big deal: 20 days were miserable and the switch occured one week earlier.
Yes Corbyn appears quite a character but do we truly believe that if he was making no waves his work would be noticed?
Finally comparing him to McKibben, Romm is totally unfair.
Whether right or wrong his claims are testable unlike the CAGW cheerleaders.
I don’t understand how I’m supposed to tell if Piers is right or not. He only makes four “forecasts” that are so vague that Nostradamus would be proud of them:
As far as I can see, not one of those is specific enough to be falsifiable. How hot is “searing”? How many fires? Just how high is a “variable band of high(er) pressure”? How “frequent” will the low pressure be, and how low does it have to be to count?
I like Piers, and I’ve corresponded with him. But I keep waiting for him to make an actual verifiable checkable falsifiable forecast. Perhaps he’s made one, I haven’t checked them all, but the ones I have looked at have been the equivalent of these, vague claims about “searing” heat and “frequent low pressure”.
My own forecast is that we will continue to have waves of thunderstorms, tornadoes, forest fires, and frequent instances of high and low pressure, particularly over the NE, SW, NW, and SE parts of the US.
w.
His site has some design elements in common with http://timecube.com/ . His prediction style is getting a little “alarmist” and shot-gun style – I’m sure in the barrage of shouty assertions on those pages (I didn’t have the mental stamina to wade in very far) SOME of those predictions will stick.
My cynical view is that this “open public release” is nothing more than a marketing ploy. Even if none of his predictions eventuate, he’ll have generated traffic to his site and maybe sold a few subscriptions.
Just my twopenneth
1) ALL forecasting of specific weather over a period of greater than say, a week, is fairly fanciful – and anyone who feels it is not is dreaming IMHO.
2) Thus, it follows that any such forecasting must be ‘speculative’ and must be described in fairly broad terms. So, I don’t think it’s fair to pick on Piers’ textural context too much! (though his site and hyperbole is indeed excruciating!). But my first thought was to recall the quatrains of Nostradamus and the inumerable events ascribed to his drivelling writings!
3) Our resident comedians at the UK MetOffice are no better – in fact probably an awful lot worse (but that would require lots of analysis to demonstrate!), especially when they talk about weather ‘probability’ – things like 33% chance warmer, 33% chance colder and 33% chance of ‘average’ – LOL – and I’m sure their computer cost a darned lot more than Corbyns’??
4) My counter argument to Piers’ claims of accuracy and ability would be to demonstrate his method(s). If they are shown to be valid, even 80% of the time, they would be worthwhile to know? Only then, perhaps, would his apparent eccentric and egotistical behaviour become somewhat more acceptable to us general skeptics!
In March Piers gave two low probability predictions for the UK April/May.
Winds from East and colder East coast but warmer west.
Much higher than average rain.
Both predictions were against the usual UK pattern.
The UK met office predicted a drier than usual period and thus supported the hosepipe ban being introduced.
Piers was proved uncannily correct.
In May for UK June Piers predicted cold wet and large hailstones.
The reason he said was the Jet stream moving south and blocking.
UK met office predicted usual weather for period.
Piers was proved uncannily correct.
The final irony was in late June the UK met office came up with a reason for the unusual wet cold weather
The reason was the Jet stream moving south and blocking.
So in LATE JUNE the BBC showed the recently updated theory from the met office with a graphic that was almost an exact copy of Piers graphic produced in MAY.
Talk about a clear embarrassment for the establishment.
A good post Anthony. I agree Corbyn’s presentation and communication skills are bizarre, eccentric and very possibly unhinged at times. He lets himself down with how bad it is. I also think his forecasts(I bought December 2011’s forecast) are too hard to follow to be of use. As far as how accurate his predictions are…
I think mentioning Piers Corbyn here is far to much honour for this guy. Piers Corbyn made himself ridiculous in NW Europe around 2009. His forecast were all extremely incorrect and to attract more attention he came with the wildest forecasts (superstorms), which again were also correct.
Europeans start to grin when they hear his name
As far as the UK is concerned, the Met Office say :-
The probability that UK precipitation for July/August/September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/6/3/A3-plots-precip-JAS.pdf
Instead of a £300 million computer, perhaps we should have given them a coin to toss.
Why is that horrible, nasty Sun doing this to us?
What a nasty thing for a friendly Sun to do to us.
Hi
I support and promote Piers Corbyn at ClimateRealists.com, and you are right that he makes claims that are wrong some of the time, but in general he IS right MOST of the time in the way the weather unfolds during a month. The Met Office issue a “higher then” or “lower then” average temperature forecast along with “dryer” or “wetter” then average that is little of use and they have millions of tax payers funding to do this.
Piers is way ahead of the MO but as he does not support “man made” climate change, he has no funding, instead he has real customers who want real result, and they are happy with what he does.
I posted the recent Front page news article about his 100 year cold UK May prediction issued in the “Daily Express” in MID APRIL it went wrong for the last ten days of May due to a huge Sunspot going off later then Piers or anyone else had forecast and it threw this prediction out for 10 days by changing the jet stream location to a higher track. After ten days of the jet stream resumed its original location and the UK reverted to having a much cooler June then the MO or anyone else had forecast. What im trying to say is Piers has a very good way of forecasting weather patterns in advance using the predictable solar events on the Sun. But if the Sun does something unexpected then as we noticed in the UK at the end of May, the forecast kicks in again!
Take a look at this link from ClimateRealists.com and you will see what i am saying:
http://climaterealists.com/?id=9746
Re Ryan Maue: \”Anthony, I’d encourage readers to post their own hyperbolic forecasts.\”
Here are my predictions for July:
Searing burgers, steaks, and sausage will dominate the West. Consumption of massive quantities of slow smoke barbecue and beer will cover the South East and South West. There will be an epidemic of children nation wide playing in pools, streams, and lakes. Summertime pandemonium will ensue across the land. Young lovers will seek cool shady and private places, people will get sunburned, fatso\’s (like me) will wear inappropriate clothing and cause laughter. Massive groups of teenagers will gather in public places and hang out. There will be copious quantities of cotton candy, funnel cakes, kettle corn and other questionable food items consumed at county and state fairs. A bunch of tweakers will set up camp next to you and blast heavy metal music all day and night.
(I wish I had the skills to change text size, font, boldness, and italics in all of the above.)
It is going to be another long and horrid summer.
I’m more intrigued by how his SLAT technique is reputed to work. Solar wind + lunar position used to lookup conditions in the past giving forecasts months ahead. Doesn’t that mean Piers must be able to predict solar flares and coronal holes? I’d love to know how he does that.
Just by looking at the spacial daily temperature and how it’s been changing over time, versus the ENSO… I’ll throw out a “July will be milder and gentler, temp and weather wise respectively, than June for the central and eastern continental United States. The Pacific NW will warm versus July averages relative to June.”
Let’s see how well an almost totally random prediction like that will work relative to his!