Guest post by Indur M. Goklany
On June 29th, the temperature at Reagan National Airport (DCA) in Washington, DC, hit 104 °F and it was duly noted by all and sundry that this was the hottest June day EVAH. Typical was the Washington Post story:
D.C. shatters all-time June record high, sizzles to 104
Mark Richards, weather observer at Reagan National Airport, says the temperature at 2:48 p.m. hit 104, blowing by the old June record of 102 set on June 9 in both 1874 and 2011. We are now experiencing D.C.’s hottest June temperatures in 142 years.
Indeed, 104 °F was the highest temperature ever measured in June in the vicinity of Reagan National Airport. But was it the warmest day in Washington, DC, ever?
This is what Reagan National Airport looks like in the present.
Figure 1: Photograph from 2011. At left foreground is the Jefferson Monument. Behind it on the other side of the river, with the plane hovering over it is Reagan National Airport. Note the development, Crystal City, on the right hand side, also on the other side of the river.
But here is a photograph that shows us what this area look like a few decades ago.
Figure 2: This picture, taken in 1942, shows the Jefferson Monument under construction. There is no Crystal City on the right, nor is there any Reagan National Airport. In fact, as one can see, that area was still being filled in. In the 19th century, the area occupied by the Memorial and adjacent land was also water, since much of this is also filled-in land.
Clearly, comparing temperature readings taken in 2012 at Reagan National against those taken over past decades at the same location is not an apples-to-apples comparison. That is, the data are not homogeneous. And whether the claim that June 29th, 2012 was the warmest Washington June day in 142 years is correct (or not), that claim cannot be supported by merely looking at the temperature readings at the airport.
The two degree difference between the previous record reading and the June 29th one may well be due to both the urban heat island effect and the “airport heat island effect,” a much understudied phenomenon (despite the fact that anyone who has stepped on asphalt in the middle of summer knows that the only thing worse is walking on coals).
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By the way, just as an afterthought; is atmospheric moisture content (WV percentage) a (to within 0.01 %) known constant?
0.01 % is the absolute maximum “human caused increase” of anthropogenic caused CO2 increase in the Atmosphere over these past 150 years.
Richard LLoyd wrote, “Record high temp doesn’t mean hottest day?! Can you not see how silly and laughable that is. Progressive or otherwise, its happening, and its about time we all realised that.”
If the temperature the night before was fairly cool, and a big forest fire ten miles away combined with an unusual weather system to bring the temperature at 11am to a record high that was almost immediately broken by a huge thunderstorm that buried the city in sleet and left it in the low 40s through the rest of the day…
Would that be “the hottest day”?
Conversely, if the record high were 102, but the temp on such a day hit 101 by 11am and stayed between 98 and 101 up through 11pm … couldn’t that quite easily and accurately be spoken of as “the hottest day?
I don’t think “its happening” is a logical followup to a news story about a single record temperature reading.
– MJM
@richard LLoyd
Conservative or otherwise, there is nothing we can do about it and it’s about time we all realized that.
From KR on July 1, 2012 at 2:41 pm:
But looking at “record highs” is a false logic as the base keeps changing.
You generate some random numbers in the range of +/- 2. You add those to 10, and establish the record highs and lows. Then you take more random numbers in the same range and add them to 11. Compared to the previous results you should have more record highs than lows. Then take more of those random numbers but add them to 12. You’ve made it virtually impossible to get any record lows compared to when you were adding them to 10, and virtually guaranteed you’ll only get record highs.
Since based on the mangled historical temperature records it is generally agreed the planet has been warming over the long term, since the ending of the Little Ice Age around 1850, noting there are more record highs than lows is basically worthless as it is nothing more than what would be expected.
Who denies the climate changes? It’s been changing since the planet was formed. Temperatures go up and down naturally. What does it matter if the current trend is going up? One thing, it’s a mere geological eyeblink before the inevitable end of this interglacial and the big freeze takes hold.
But mainly, the onus is still the same. You’re saying “climate change” when you mean anthropogenic global warming, that the rise in temperatures gets blamed on humans. You have yet to prove the rise is not natural, not within the range of natural variability.
And your false logic of “breaking records” is certainly not proof.
KR: “documenting that record highs have outpaced record lows in recent years, at a ratio of 1.14:1 in the 80′s, 1.36:1 in the 90′s, and 2.04:1 in the 2000′s. ”
Well I’m glad you brought that up, because this illustrates yet another Team-AGW confidence trick. How great an increase in the rate of temperature increase would you need to get to ensure that record LOW temperatures were NEVER broken? Well 0.01Celsius per decade would be enough, because once a record low temperature has been set even this slightly underlying trend will ensure that the record low temperature is NEVER re-visited. Since most skeptics point out that there has been a small increase in temperatures for the last 300 years as we exited the “little ice age” and as shown in the central england temperature record there is nothing spectacular about record high temperatures outpacing record low temperatures. If you look at the graph of the CET you will see a record low temperature was set in the mid 18th century – and you can also see that this record won’t ever be broken until the beginning of the next ice-age! No real sign of AGW over that 300 year period however.
What you have conveniently pointed out to all of us is nothing more than Team AGW “sleight of hand”. Come on KR, admit to yourself that Team AGW are pulling the wool over your eyes and come over to our side.
KR says
I would agree with Richard Lloyd – if you ignore the evidence, climate change appears not to be happening.
Henry says
Actually I agree with you both…….
Climate change is happening. It’s getting a bit warmer on the east coast – for the moment – but not for long, I think.
On the west coast it has been getting colder for quite some time already. At LAX average temperatures have dropped by about 0.5 degrees (C or K) since 1980.
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
To KR,
I for one will start getting real worried when the “Record Lows” outpace the “Record Highs”
If you look at the Holocene temps the earth is getting gradually cooler throughout the Holocene.
Greenland Ice Core temperature graph (10,000 years)
Vostok Antarctica Ice Core temperature graph (10,000 years)
The Holocene has had the most stable temp of the last five interglacials
Vostok Graph of temp, Last five interglacials – Holocene on the left
The CO2 in the Holocene does not have much to do with the stability of the Holocene temperature. Compare the temperatures and CO2 for the Eemian interglacial and for the Holocene interglacial and you can see CO2 is not the “Control Knob”
Vostok Graph of temp, Last five interglacials – Holocene on the right
From NOAA
More on what scientists say drives the climate….
The whole article plus comments is well worth reading.
So regardless of the UHI argument, DC just broke a high temperature record.
We are to understand (believe) that CO2 has caused this.
My two questions:
What caused the record hot day 142 years ago?
How do we know it’s not the same cause now?
How can Washington be hotter than it used to be if Washington, as it was, is not there to BE of any particular temperature?
Richard Lloyd, So how is it you know, you are sure, that CO2 is the cause of record warm temps.
Nobody who looks at the empirical data would deny that our climate has been warming naturally since the so called Littlle Ice Age. There has been no acceleration in that rate of warming even though CO2 content has risen. This defies your CO2 dogma. Look at UN-ADJUSTED empirical data, no models, no fudge factors; there is no evidence.
There is no evidence of CO2 caused catastrophe. To say so is a lie.
I emailed the Capital Weather Gang on Friday and asked how comparing a 2012 temp reading at the National Airport with a 1874 temp that I am sure was not located anywhere near the airport was valid. Funny that I have not received an answer. 🙂
Resourceguy says:
July 1, 2012 at 9:06 am
Nevertheless, Pelosi has the private jet fleet to head out of town at the first sign of a power flicker or heat wave.
==========
In return thousands of people must live without producing any CO2, so that Nancy can be carbon neutral.
The leader in the third world are well paid to make sure these people produce no CO2, so that Important People like Gore and Pelosi can fly all over the world telling us how much we all need to stop producing CO2.
Important People like Strong and Hillary tell us that REDD is the future. That our tax money is needed to convert land in the third world into forests for the benefit of future generations (future generations of Important People). Those generations that live on the land today will have to move somewhere else (because they are Not Important People).
RobRoy says:
July 2, 2012 at 7:10 am
Look at UN-ADJUSTED empirical data, no models, no fudge factors; there is no evidence
=========
Look at average daily maximum temperatures. They have not increased anywhere. Even in the Arctic.
We are told there is global warming, but the evidence says otherwise. What is happening is that minimum temperatures are increasing. The cold is becoming less cold. However, the warm is not becoming more warm.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Thus, what we have is Global Moderation. Not Global Warming. Climate is becoming more temperate and less extreme. It is only Climate Science that is becoming more extreme. Extreme Nonsense.
[snip. Read the site Policy. And use a valid email address. ~dbs, mod.]
A remark, and then a question or two. Or three:
First, a run-down on historic mercury-busting temps can be found here:
http://ggweather.com/climate/extremes_us.htm
You’ll note that while many of these high temps on the hit parade of hell were recent, many if not most of them were earlier in the 20th century. AGW enthusiasts respond sometimes by saying that while that might be the case, note also we’ve not had many super LOW temps of late.
The winters are warming, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever again see parts of Georgia and South Carolina dip to -10 F. Of course, they’ll also say this is well-noted in AGW literature and that warming winters more than warming summers are just the thing one should expect from atmospheric increases in CO2.
Those in the know are more than welcome to chime in, warmers and anti-warmers alike, naturally, and do tell if any of these have been re-busted by the current heat wave. It WAS 107 in Columbia SC the other day. Yes, it’s always hotter than hell here, other than the middle of January, but “hot all the time” has to my knowledge not corresponded even here with “Like unto the Mojave desert”.
And yes, it can make a difference. Even 100 F for days in a row is actually tolerable for most garden veggies, even without the first spot of water–one day of 107F, however, can destroy them depending on soil and humidity, etc.—in a single day. No matter how much water and shade given. They can’t handle it.
There ARE tipping points, as the Greens say. Or so it would seem.
Question: Those measurements going back to, say, 100 years or so–just how reliable are they? Do we know if those instruments were calibrated correctly? How so? Has any rightsizing been done to account for any variations, if not?
Temp measurements in 1942, Washington DC are one thing to trust, 1899 would be quite another matter to trust. Or no?
ferdberple says
1) Look at average daily maximum temperatures. They have not increased anywhere. Even in the Arctic
2) We are told there is global warming, but the evidence says otherwise. What is happening is that minimum temperatures are increasing. The cold is becoming less cold. However, the warm is not becoming more warm.
Henry@ferdberple
the first statement is true
maxima are dropping and from the sample that I took you can easily see that it follows on a nice curve downwards,
you can actually easily predict with high accuracy it will go further down
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
Your assumption that minima are rising, pushing up the mean temperature, is in fact the general AGW meme. However, it cannot be confirmed from my sample. Sure, at some places (like Las Vegas) you do get minima rising quite dramatically, but this is due to
1) increasing vegetation (where there was none before)
2) UHI
3) removal of snow (as in some of the northern countries)
However, in general, all three parameters,
Maxima
Means
and
Minima
have started going down, globally,
from somewhere around 1994/5
Earth has some stored energy, but I don’t think it can keep on handling less heat from the sun.
\Eventually it is going to get colder. According to my assessment temps. will continue to drop until at least 2025.
“It WAS 107 in Columbia SC the other hot. ” Typo– make that “the other DAY.”
[REPLY: OK, I fixed your typo, but you need to remember that site policy prohibits indiscriminant screen-name changing. Please select one screen name and stick with it. -REP]
Yea, well, my car thermometer can be 10 degrees cooler than the Bank parking lot thermometer that everyone quotes when it’s *really* hot in the summer. Hi/Lo temp are readings are utterly meaningless since site standards have been tossed out the window. 105 is hot, hell yea, but I’ve expereince a few 105 degree days hundreds of miles north of NC. My dad lived in AZ in the 50s and it was over 100 for practically half the year. It was nice mid-80s weekend her in Central PA and a few weeks ago we had hi tems in the mid 60s in June. Called weather people, it does funky stuff. Now if every summer was hitting 90-100 practically every day for 3-4 months for several years in a row, I’d be starting to worry, and planning on heading north.
Don’t even start on percip. Lots of farms in my area and the farmers are always complaining that it is too wet or too dry. This year’s wet spring was bad for the crops, now that it hasn’t rained for a whole 10 days, welll that’s not true, we have got 3-4 Thunder Storms, but anyway, now it’s too dry! Evidently farmers and greenies don’t know what an average (mean, median or othewise) is.
REP:
Thanks. Sorry about the name flip, but for some reason it didn’t “stick” like on most sites. So on the second post for some reason, perhaps due to the email tag, it reverted by to my real name., Wakefield Tolbert is in point of fact my real name, but few people believe this, it caused issues due to that the last time I was around these parts, with more than a few commenters swearing it must be El Fako, and therefore, since no one believed it anyone, I said “Well, golly wiz wilkers, I’ll just go ahead and make a new handle. So, I tried out a funky new one just for shiggles–one that sounded dark and foreboding and fun. Too bad WordPress says “Verboten”!
Regards,
Pull My Finger says: July 2, 2012 at 11:27 am
“…Don’t even start on precip. Lots of farms in my area and the farmers are always complaining that it is too wet or too dry….”
Ha ha – too true!
I come from farming family. Weather is always the discussion and it is ALWAYS bad …. one week its; “Damn, we need some rain soon …” , the next week I hear; “Damn, we are 2 weeks behind here because this damn rain never stops…”
No doubt if the heat wave were to continue, we’d see this more often.
Yes.Full Snark Mode here. Really now….But don’t tell that to Greenpeace.
http://now.msn.com/now/0703-homeless-polar-bear.aspx
REP;
it’s people like you switching metric systems that caused the loss of the Mars Climate Orbiter. You’d think one horrible example would be enough to learn you, but noooo …