Maybe some folk scan listen in on this and take notes.
PRESS ADVISORY: LEADING SCIENTISTS TO DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGE, HEAT WAVES AND WILDFIRES
WHAT: As a heat wave sweeps across much of the country and wildfires rage in the West, many are wondering about the connection between these types of extreme weather events and climate change. Climate Communication has put together Heat Waves and Climate Change, a summary of the latest peer-reviewed literature on climate change and the recent increase in temperatures — a contributing factor to wildfires. Panelists on this call will discuss how climate change contributes to the extreme weather events unfolding now, their public health impacts and how similar risks could multiply in the future.
WHEN: Thursday, June 28, 11 a.m. Eastern Time
To call in and listen only, dial 1-855-244-8681. The event number is 660 341 332.
WHO:
Dr. Steven Running — Director, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Dept. of Ecosystem Sciences, University of Montana
Dr. Howard Frumkin — Dean, School of Public Health, Professor, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer — Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University.
Susan Joy Hassol, Director at Climate Communication, will moderate the panel
Some facts from Heat Waves and Climate Change, which will be available tomorrow:
- Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer
- In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot temperatures has increased 50-fold
- In the U.S., new record high temperatures now regularly outnumber new record lows by a ratio of 2:1; In 2012, the ratio for the year (through June 26) stands at more than 9:1.
- In the U.S., the rise in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere has increased the probability of record-breaking temperatures 15-fold
- If we continue business as usual, the same summertime temperatures that ranked among the top 5% in 1950–1979 will occur at least 70% of the time by 2035–2064 in the U.S.
- By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year
h/t to reader Steve Divine
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In the grip of summer 1963, St. Andrews (VIC, Australia) experienced a widespread bushfire. My parents immigrated from cold war Germany and Holland in 1965. I remember picking up molten bottles from destroyed buildings as a child in our paddock (born 1968). Almost a decade later, the climate crashed to a minimum. It’s not that people forget, just that greenies refuse to remember.. Climate has a cycle, and it’ll remind us all – but will the greenies take note? Doubt it..
Dear Climate Scientists –
The largest wildfire recorded in US history was the Big Burn of 1910. That was one of many catastrophic fire seasons in the early years of the 20th century. In the Big Burn of 1910, over three million acres burned across the West. Three thousand individual fires burned together into a couple of massive infernos that completely destroyed several entire towns.
Questions:
1. Were the massive 1910 inferno and the other intense fire seasons in the West from 1900-1930 the result of the tailpipe emissions of the Connestoga Wagons that carried the previous generation’s pioneers to the western US?
2. The enormous wildfires of the 1900-1930 period caused the US Forest Service to implement its “10 AM” policy in 1935. Under this policy any wildland fire was immediately and aggressively fought. The name comes from the notion that if a wildland fire was reported, it was to be completely out by 10 AM the next morning. This policy continued in force thru the late 1980s.
Those fifty years of aggressive fire suppression have resulted in a massive fuel load accumulation in Western forests. The typical pre-suppression fire season of many smaller, low intensity fires would periodically clear out the dead trees and other fuels without destroying the forest. For fifty years, however, the 10 AM policy effectively eliminated those small, low intensity fires. The only fires that burned were those that quickly became large enough that they could not be controlled. This allowed those fuels to accumulate, leaving us currently with what foresters call the “Propane Forest”.
So – lots of big fires in the early 1900s greatly depleted forest fire fuel stocks in the first third of the last century. Then fire suppression allowed those fuel stocks to rebuild at an unnaturally rapid rate for the next five decades. Then the “10 AM” policy was replaced in the 1980s with the “Let it Burn” policy, which allowed most naturally caused fires to be allowed to burn. Might this chain of events have something to do with fire frequency and intensity increases over the period 1935 – present?
3. Have you no shame?
“With wildfires often in the news, Charles Lafon, associate professor of geography, has studied the fire history of forests throughout the southern and central Appalachian Mountains. He says trees can reveal key information about fire events…
“We found one tree that has had at least 14 fires, and we found many other trees that had endured multiple fires,” he explains. By piecing together the fire-scar record from numerous trees, he and his students and collaborators learned that fires occurred frequently, about once every 2–10 years. He found some trees with scars dating back to the mid-1600s.
“The point is, there have always been fires in forests. Sometimes fires are a good thing because they are nature’s way of starting over and producing new growth, and sometimes they are destructive.”
“Many tree species that inhabit fire-prone areas have thick, protective bark,” he points out.
“Some trees depend on fires for their own reproduction. One such tree is the Table Mountain Pine. Through a feature called serotiny, its cones often will not open to release the seeds unless they are heated by a fire, ensuring that the new seedlings emerge at an optimal time to survive and grow — right after a fire has cleared away the competing vegetation.”
“The decline in fire frequency during the 20th century, for example, permitted tree species like red maple to encroach into pine and oak forests. Now the pines, oaks and other fire-associated species like the Peters Mountain mallow are declining in abundance, reducing the commercial value of the timber and diminishing the quality of wildlife habitat.
“Today, agencies like the U.S. Forest Service, the National Park Service, The Nature Conservancy and private landowners use controlled burning to try to restore the fire-associated vegetation.”
http://tamutimes.tamu.edu/2011/09/07/tree-rings-reveal-forest-fires-from-hundreds-of-years-ago/
The key insight into the problem of increasing extreme weather events is kurtosis.
As the climate warms, for whatever reason, the range of weather extremes and their incidence increases. The probability distribution is not Gaussian.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120105_PerceptionsAndDice.pdf
Note in fig7 how the record back to 1900 is examined both for the globe, N. hemisphere and US. As just 2% of the surface the US shows much greater variability, but the increased probability distribution for extreme events is still detectable.
It should be on right about now . . . anyone listening in? If so give us an update . . . and post it here for those of us who have no access. Please . . . pretty please!
Weather is not climate only when its suit them. Local heat waves as we all know are by these guys prove of CAGW.
Funny, today it snowed in Norway. OK, not in the whole country. Only in the far north, but still, remember it’s the 28th of June. http://bit.ly/OCuh55
http://www.theage.com.au/world/record-arctic-ice-melt-20120628-2155a.html
And the Arctic. Don’t forget to discuss the improved measurement and funding, especially the funding, since 1979.
regards
Your usual suspects don’t need much prepping either by all accounts?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/06/25/Former-Katie-Couric-Producer-Says-NBC-Indefensible-Asks-What-the-Hell-Is-Wrong-With-You-Guys
Climate communication = bare faced lies aimed at the dim-witted and the gullible (aka MSM)
Barbee says:
June 27, 2012 at 8:37 pm
June 27th and we have already broken the all time record for “post-tropical cyclones” reported in the northern hemisphere.
It might help you to understand what you are saying. From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone
Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.
Extratropical cyclones encompass a class of storms with many names. Although they are sometimes referred to as “cyclones”, this is imprecise; cyclone applies to numerous types of low pressure areas. The descriptor extratropical signifies that this type of cyclone generally occurs outside the tropics in the middle latitudes of Earth. The term mid-latitude cyclones may be used because of where they form; “post-tropical cyclones” if extratropical transition has occurred. Weather forecasters and the general public often describe them as “depressions” or “lows”. Terms like frontal cyclone, frontal depression, frontal low, extratropical low, non-tropical low and hybrid low are often used as well.
Who is it that counts every ‘depression’ or ‘low’ in the Northern Hemisphere?
http://drtimball.com/2012/current-global-weather-patterns-normal-despite-government-and-media-distortions/
“By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year”
Back in the mid 90s, we had two ‘500 year floods’ on the MIssissippi river within a three year time span, in the St. Louis MO area! Should we have projected them to continue occurring every 2 years, based on that ‘trend’.?
I think they rely on people who spend all their time in carefully climate controlled conditions and don’t have the first clue what the great outdoors are really like. Of course, it’s hot. It’s the midwest and it’s nearly July. Yes, we had an early summer, but the temps are about what you’d expect them to be – mid to upper 90s with some triple digit. It’s just abnormally dry.
In reply to tonyb
Sat here at 300m in the Pennines we are experiencing a summer that more resembles late October or early November. Incessant heavy rain, gales and maximum day time temperatures of 14C since April, interspersed with an odd day or two of 25C.
The last 3 winters have been harsh with heavy snowfall and temperatures below -10C. Our last sustained warm spell was 2006 when I was able to grow chillis outdoors.
Since 2006 low temperatures and a lack of sunshine have ensured that tomatoes have failed to ripen. In a fit of optimism I am currently trialling a variety of tomato developed for US airmen to grow in Greenland. So far it is not looking to good .
I shudder to think of what situation we would be in after the last 3 summers and winters if we were medieval peasants.
PS I can supply more snails if you run out.
David H
We haven’t had a summer in the Pacific Northwest for at least 3 years. It’s July, and we barely hit 60f on Whidbey Island today. I had to mow my lawn yesterday with a heavy sweatshirt. We’re supposed to finally get some sun in a couple days, but the temps aren’t supposed to even hit the mid 60s.