While alarmists bloviate about three months of warm weather citing it as cock-sure proof that global warming is at fault (like they always do), we have this from the University of Missouri-Columbia. It is research figuring out why this spring was so warm, and noting that in 1889, it happened the same way before.
Note how the ENSO pattern differences affect the USA:
2 warmest winter months in Midwest history may have connection
Discoveries could help predict weather in the future
COLUMBIA, Mo. – This past March was the second warmest winter month ever recorded in the Midwest, with temperatures 15 degrees above average. The only other winter month that was warmer was December of 1889, during which temperatures were 18 degrees above average. Now, MU researchers may have discovered why the weather patterns during these two winter months, separated by 123 years, were so similar. The answer could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models.
Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.
“During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada. Rain storms follow the jet stream, leaving the central and south-central states dry, while blocking air from moving south into the Midwest, resulting in higher temperatures.”
The discovery of the similarity between these two months, even though they are separated by 123 years, could help scientists understand the variability within climate patterns and assist them with future weather predictions. Thus, scientists could further understand how climate is changing and how variable it is becoming.
As well as being La Niña years, 2012 and 1889 also featured strong Artic Oscillations, a pattern of air pressure that wraps itself around the North Pole. During these times the air pressure is low and the oscillation traps and keeps cold air in the artic. With oscillation keeping cold air to the north, records showed a strong “ridge” over central North America. Ridges often bring record heat into an area, explaining the unusually warm winter temperatures, Lupo explained.
“The La Niña pattern has continued into the summer and will continue to affect the weather,” Lupo said. “This will cause droughts and above average heat throughout the Midwest from Texas to Iowa. A new El Nino pattern could develop this fall and bring favorable weather conditions to the Midwest; however, I don’t see this happening.”
Lupo is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society in London and is a member of the International Panel for Climate Change that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
Encouraging. From the article Dr “Lupo’s main field of study is a phenomenon called atmospheric blocking”. He also mentions the AMO. Good!
In 1889 the AMO would have been in the same phase as now, given the 60-65 year cyclic signal exhibited. But he fails to mention the other biggie…that solar cycle 12 just completed was the weakest in the last 190 years, present cycle excepted.
And common to weak solar activity…increased jet stream blocking. SC24 is looking to be even weaker than SC12.
Look to the Sun…
Typically by mid-June, the HEAT is ON here in North Carolina. This year, not so much. Mid-June and dewpoints are upper-50s, windows open, forecast this weekend is 79F on Saturday with a low of 57F. Well below average. June is making up for March. If this is Global Warming, I’m going to start my car and let it idle all night. I’d take a whole summer of this in a heartbeat…
Warm in the Midwest. Huh. Thought it was called “global” warming.
“Global” warming ended in 1998. Look it up for yourself. The earth goes through warming and cooling phases all the time. Right now it decided to stop warming. I know that missing warming is a “travesty” to global warming advocates.
Heading west on I-84 into Portland, Oregon just before 6 pm today (June 14,2012), I saw a sun dog in a layer of cirrus clouds. This is the closest to summer that I have observed this phenomenon based on ice crystals.
It may come as a shock to many who post on this blog but weather in the USA isn’t the weather for entire globe. Here in the UK the weather since March has been wet and cold culminating in a miserably cold and wet June. So warmth in the midwest of the USA isn’t the harbinger of global warming doom.
Been really cold and wet in southern Alberta. No sign of warm on the horizon either.
apachewhoknows says:
June 14, 2012 at 11:07 am
> so some things can not be posted
> fine, later
One thing that everyoneleseknows is that the unpaid staff of moderators can’t be on duty all the time. Patience.
@Ian says: June 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm – You do know what ‘this blog’ is don’t you?
Shevva says @12.09 am “@Ian says: June 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm – You do know what ‘this blog’ is don’t you?”
I do Shevva but I did note that no one else had commented that warmth in the USA isn’t the same as global warming so I thought I’d make the point
Ian~ a Major point here is that the USA is NOT the entire globe- but the ‘man-made’ global warming crowd, often acts like it is, and is in fact pointing to the mild winter as proof that the Earth is heating up rapidly.
Alan A. says:
June 14, 2012 at 10:19 am
That’s regional balance. Milder somewhere often means cooler somewhere else but the media and laymen in general often forget to mention that or even bother.
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Yes no one mentions all the cold/cool weather associated with this. I am in North Carolina and it is 59F. (15C ) The mean temperature for June so far is 68F (20C). We have had ten days where the min. temperature has been below 60F (15C) and five of those have been 51F (10C) The Average min temp is 64F (18C) vs a real min of 60F (15C) so far this month. The average mean is 86F (30C), a far cry from a real mean of 68F (20C) so far this month. So far we have had 45 days of cool weather in May and June.
We had one of the most beautiful Marches on record! VERY warm. Now we are also having one of the most beautiful Junes on record! Very COOL. The difference is June is supposed to be HOT, so when the average is in the high 70s and low 80s, that is VERY Cool. And of course March is supposed to be cold, so when the averages were in the low 70s, upper 60s, that was WARM.
What it is is average when you average the 2 together. What it means is great weather this year. Not climate.
As ferd noted elsewhere, here in Vancouver we’re having “Junuary” weather. That blue swash to the upper left of the continent, there. Not nice.
There are more accurate maps of the ENSO impact on temperature and precipitation produced by the NCEP.
This is world-wide correlation of March-April-May temperatures to an El Nino. For a La Nina, just reverse the colors (Blue to Yellow and Yellow to Blue).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/diag.temp.regr.MAM.png
Basically Texas and the US southeast should be up to +1.0C above normal. Central Russia +1.0C above normal. Northeast North America -1.0C below normal. And that is exactly the pattern observed (understanding that the impacts will be off by a few hundred kms from event to event).
Precipitation M-A-M. Reverse the colors again for a La Nina.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/diag.prec.regr.MAM.png
Otter @2.37am you make a very valid point
No warmth here in the midwest. It was warm in March, but it’s been unseasonably cool since April. Dewpoints the past few days have been in the 30s and 40s in mid June!
Ric Werme – I think that “picks up a Nobel prize” is a fair way of referring to his sharing the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, but I’m happy to add that detail for clarification if you think it’s needed. That prize was indeed obtained “by ignoring all the empirical evidence and persisting with cherry-picked corrupt science“. I don’t think for a moment that the crime was committed by Tony Lupo personally, but like many others he kept silent, did he not?
I do accept your point that my “Now, by studiously ignoring everyone…” statement should have been directed at the author not at Tony Lupo.
Andrew: (and anyone else who noticed)
Yes, I had that reversed. La Nina dry and El Nino wet.
Thanks for correcting my espanol. 🙂
I usually don’t comment on these posts related to my work, but a few points need to be made. The point of this study is to show that these things have happened before, and this is not due to CO2. The media went bonkers with the warm March and we heard that it is global warming on steriods. The point was merely to say it is not unique. Many have made great points here, but we’re getting way off topic and top broad what we’re trying to do. The study is done by an undergraduate student and he is volunteering to do it, thus, it is not funded. I do realize that the rest of the world has not been warm during this spring.
The story itself was written by our University media. They have been very supportive of me. They would rather cite my IPCC credentials to keep others off their back. I must commend my institution for taking arrows for me. I have been part of the IPCC process since 1993. I have stuck with it because I feel it is better to critique (and challenge) them from within rather than from without. I continue to review their work as long as they’ll have me.
Thank you to all who have commented here. The robust discussion shows interest!
A few years back I read a number of studies which suggested that as global temperatures rose, the tropical band would be expected to widen as the Jet streams moved towards the poles.
As you know here in the UK, we’ve suffered from some cold winters recently, and now we have the most horrendous summer that I can ever remember. In each of the cases the explanation has been that the Jet Streams have moved futher south than is usual.
As a warming world was predicted to move the Jet Stream’s towards the poles, Is it reasonable to consider whether a cooling world moves them in the opposite direction?
TonyLupo says:
June 16, 2012 at 10:11 am
….They have been very supportive of me. They would rather cite my IPCC credentials to keep others off their back. I must commend my institution for taking arrows for me. I have been part of the IPCC process since 1993. I have stuck with it because I feel it is better to critique (and challenge) them from within rather than from without. I continue to review their work as long as they’ll have me…..
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Thank you for “venturing into the enemy camp” and trying to add a bit of balance and sense.