While alarmists bloviate about three months of warm weather citing it as cock-sure proof that global warming is at fault (like they always do), we have this from the University of Missouri-Columbia. It is research figuring out why this spring was so warm, and noting that in 1889, it happened the same way before.
Note how the ENSO pattern differences affect the USA:
2 warmest winter months in Midwest history may have connection
Discoveries could help predict weather in the future
COLUMBIA, Mo. – This past March was the second warmest winter month ever recorded in the Midwest, with temperatures 15 degrees above average. The only other winter month that was warmer was December of 1889, during which temperatures were 18 degrees above average. Now, MU researchers may have discovered why the weather patterns during these two winter months, separated by 123 years, were so similar. The answer could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models.
Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.
“During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada. Rain storms follow the jet stream, leaving the central and south-central states dry, while blocking air from moving south into the Midwest, resulting in higher temperatures.”
The discovery of the similarity between these two months, even though they are separated by 123 years, could help scientists understand the variability within climate patterns and assist them with future weather predictions. Thus, scientists could further understand how climate is changing and how variable it is becoming.
As well as being La Niña years, 2012 and 1889 also featured strong Artic Oscillations, a pattern of air pressure that wraps itself around the North Pole. During these times the air pressure is low and the oscillation traps and keeps cold air in the artic. With oscillation keeping cold air to the north, records showed a strong “ridge” over central North America. Ridges often bring record heat into an area, explaining the unusually warm winter temperatures, Lupo explained.
“The La Niña pattern has continued into the summer and will continue to affect the weather,” Lupo said. “This will cause droughts and above average heat throughout the Midwest from Texas to Iowa. A new El Nino pattern could develop this fall and bring favorable weather conditions to the Midwest; however, I don’t see this happening.”
Lupo is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society in London and is a member of the International Panel for Climate Change that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
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so some things can not be posted
fine, later
Dang, I wrote /blockqoute in my previous comment. I don’t have my blockquote emacs macro at work.
Anthony, what’s the source and date of this article? It’s rather different from what I found at http://cafnrnews.com/2012/06/months-of-extremes/ .
The most important thing about this work is that it appears to be more data then model dependent. Lets all give it up for empirical science.
So how exactly do you have weather without it being climate? Do you understand what “climate” means?
Andrew says:”Alaska has been cool”
Opps, sorry, that’s consistent with La Nina, at least according to the chart, not El Nino. Silly me. But, warm Northern US is consistent with an El Nino pattern.
Mike Jonas says: “think the index is based on atmospheric pressure differences between two points”
AFAIK, the ENSO meter is based off of SST, you are probably think of the Southern Oscillation Index. And it’s Tahiti and Darwin, I believe.
Barbee says: “I am referring to the prevelance fo dry drought-like conditions @ur momisugly the lower latitudes of both TX and FL as illustrated on the EL Nino chart above.”
I assume you mean La Nina, as the chart above shows Florida and Texas Wet for El Nino.
Which is what I’ve found with my composites, and indeed we’ve (South Florida) had wetter weather coming out of La Nina, although, still before El Nino has begun.
And the UK summer is looking nice as usual, I’m sure the MET mentioned no rain this year in April.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2159048/UK-weather-Forecasters-predict-major-flooding-Atlantic-storm-sweeps-in.html
David L. says:
June 14, 2012 at 10:07 am
Raise the temperature a little and you have “is this a sign of global warming?” all over the news
Here is the reason why!
http://drtimball.com/2012/ipcc-control-calculations-of-annual-human-co2-production-for-political-agenda/
Wll, late spring here in Victoria BC is not warm (it was unusually warm several weeks ago, also my impression is that precipitation patterns were different this year.
25 states did not set a March record. 5 are from 1907.
Alabama 64.5 1907
Arizona 58.4 2004
California 58.8 1934
Colorado 42.2 2004
Delaware 54.1 1921
Florida 70.7 1907
Idaho 43 1934
Louisiana 68.5 1907
Maine 35.4 1946
Maryland 52.8 1921
Massachusetts 44.1 1946
Mississippi 65.1 1907
Montana 41.9 1986
Nevada 49.6 1934
New Hampshire 39.4 1946
New Mexico 50.3 1910
North Carolina 59.4 1945
North Dakota 40.7 1910
Oregon 48.3 1934
South Carolina 63.1 1945
Texas 66.2 1907
Utah 46.1 2004
Virginia 55.2 1945
Washington 46.9 1992
Wyoming 39.8 1986
In my article ‘The long slow thaw’ I examined thousands of contemporary weather records in reconstructing CET from 1660 back to 1538.
I made this comment;
“Due to its geographical location British weather is often quite mobile and periods of hot, cold, dry or wet weather tend to be relatively short lived. If such events are longer lasting than normal, or interrupted and resumed, that can easily shape the character of a month or a season. Reading the numerous references there is clear evidence of ‘blocking patterns,’ perhaps as the jet stream shifts, or a high pressure takes up residence, feeding in winds from a certain direction which generally shape British weather.”
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
Looking at the first two graphics of this WUWT article the position of the jet stream has a fundamental effect on shaping the weather in that period. Either by itself- or in conjunction with one of the ocean oscillations- the jet streams seem to meander and ‘stick’ in position causing –in the case of the UK- long periods of westerlies (warm/wet) or easterlies (cold/dry in winter, hot/dry in summer)
As such it increasingly seems to me they are one of the great effects on our climate. Has anyone seen a good article on jet streams and their influence or got any special knowledge on the subject?
tonyb
The average of the global March, April and May values according to GISS is (0.47 + 0.55 + 0.65)/3 = 0.557. That number would give a global ranking of 7th on GISS. (2010 was the warmest at 0.63.)
In contrast, the average of the global March, April and May values according to RSS is (0.074 + 0.333 + 0.233)/3 = 0.213. That number would give a global ranking of 10th on RSS. (1998 was the warmest at 0.55.)
To contrast March with May only 6 of the 48 contiguous states have set a record this century.
Warmest May this century
Arizona 72.1 2000
California 69.6 2001
Delaware 69.2 2004
Maryland 69 2004
Nevada 62.1 2001
Rhode Island 61.8 2010
Warmest May before 1900
Georgia 76.2 1896
Idaho 58.2 1897
Indiana 68.4 1896
Kentucky 71.5 1896
Michigan 62.4 1896
Mississippi 77 1896
North Carolina 72.3 1896
Oklahoma 75 1896
South Carolina 76.5 1896
West Virginia 67.3 1896
mfo says:
June 14, 2012 at 9:48 am
Not in Kansas City, Missouri:
Five Warmest Marchs from 1889 to 2012:
If this old fool remembers rightly, some or all of those marchs were followed by cold winters. Now there’s a thought.
I had mentioned elsewhere that I have a list of all time record temps for Columbus Ohio that I obtained in 2007 and again in 2012. The 2012 list included ties, the 2007 list did not. Aside from things like record highs for a date in the 2012 list being lower than the same day’s record in the 2007 list, I just noticed that this tie did not show up in the 2012 list.
2012 list 2007 list
17-Mar 74 2003 Mar-17 74 1889
Curious.
“Only the oldest farts have been through a complete PDO cycle. For most Americans the current negative PDO is untrodden territory. ENSO behavior within the PDO is also novel for most (including me, vague childhood memories of the end of the last negative PDO aside).”
I remember the end of the last negative PDO. It was 1976-77. Back then, scientists dubbed it the Great Pacific Climate Shift. If memory serves me correctly, the winter of 76/77 came very early with devastating autumn storms in California (temps plunged well below freezing even in Death Valley), and strong winds damaged much of the citrus crop in So Cal. By early December artic air masses invaded the Eastern Third of the US, with lows in Chicago around -5 F. The Great Lake Snow Belt kicked in just after Thanksgiving. The following Summer was a scorcher for the eastern half of the US (remember the Son of Sam Summer? Black outs and brown outs all over New England). And the followiing Winter of 1977-78 produced a number of record blizzards from the Plains eastward. Summer came early in 1978, as high temps of over 90 degrees were common all over New England and the Great Lakes beginning in late April. Two years later, the horrendous drought and heatwave of 1980 occured (The Bermuda High extended all the way to Vancouver that summer. San Antonio Texas had high temps above 110 deg for more than a month without a drop of rain).
I think the season variations we’re seeing now go beyond ENSO. It is most likely a combination of regional variations in Atlantic and Pacific SSTs coupled with some unknown teleconnection. How the Hadley Cell waxes and wanes is still a mystery. But, we should have seen this coming last winter when low precip and warmer than normal temperatures dominated many regions of North America. It is too bad that alarmists use these “unusual” weather patterns to push their agenda. They aren’t really that unusual at all.
Hurricane One
Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration May 16 – May 21
Intensity 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min), Unknown
Hurricane one formed on May 16. On strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane and took a curve away from the mainland and dissipated on May 21.This hurricane did not affect land, but was the first May hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, and one of only 4 today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889_Atlantic_hurricane_season
It’s been an unusually cool spring and cool early summer thus far in my section of Authentic Northern California. The rain in my locale has also been underreported, almost 3/4 less than rain in my yard. What is this about a California heat record?
It’s typically in the nineties (f) this time of year, instead it’s been in the pleasant seventies. It’s absolutely perfect out! I guess I must be getting all the nice weather, sorry to be such a hog about it.
http://www.stormpulse.com/1889-hurricane-season
Well here in the UK our central heating has been coming on each morning for the past 3 weeks. Many years have passed since this last happened in june if ever. I blame global warming and not weather because I am completely bonkers.
““During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada.”
==
Tail wags dog…
“Current temperatures are on track to make this June the coldest on record.”
http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Vancouver+stormy+summer+pace+record+cold/6778531/story.html
Also; It’s ‘Intergovernmental’ not ‘International’.
Now, as I mentioned previously, the best we can do is look at analog years (that is, years with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions relative to the present). Since we are still firmly in the grips of a persistent La Nina, the analogs I’ve chosen will try to reflect that. We really don’t have a lot of data to go in regards to a three year La Nina; since 1950, there have only been three such periods (1954-1956, 1973-1975, and 1998-2000).
http://www.talkingpoints.co/?p=359
http://www.stormpulse.com/1954-hurricane-season
For the last 18 months the weather in Vancouver, BC has been generally colder, wetter and darker (more cloud cover). For an region that normally gets more than it’s fair share of this weather the last 18 months have really sucked thanks to two back to back La Ninas. Ironically the last El Nino occurred right when we hosted the 2010 Winter Olympics, when we had 17C sunny days in February and had to truck in snow to the Cypress Mountain location.
And what is going on in the southern hemisphere? Last time I checked (last week) parts of Australia and NZ were experiencing some record, or near record, low temperatures.
I quote:
“Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.”
That is complete nonsense. 2012 can at best be described as an ENSO neutral year while 1889 is definitely an El Nino year. ENSO has nothing to do with these two outliers whose cause must be determined by studying the relevant climate data. First I suggest that Lupo should acquaint himself with the global temperature curves that display ENSO phases. Secondly, I suggest that computer models are not what should be used in view of their notorious inability to correctly forecast global warming. There has not been any warming this century while IPCC AR4 forecast was that twentieth century warming should proceed at 0.2 degrees per decade.