From NCDC’s spring report here
More record warmth as scientists warn of global tipping point – CNN.com
— It’s hot out there. But this time, it’s more than idle watercooler talk, according to weather scientists.
At the same time the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center has released a report noting that this spring in the United States has been the warmest since record-keeping began in 1895, a group of scientists has published a paper in the journal Nature warning that the planet is approaching a critical tipping point because of climate and other factors.
Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.
In its report issued Thursday, the climate data center said the average U.S. temperature between March and May was 57.1 degrees, 5.2 degrees above the long-term average from 1901 to 2000.
While May was only the second-warmest on record, it was still in the top third for monthly average temperatures, marking 12 consecutive months with temperatures in that range, said Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.
“For that to happen 12 times in a row in a random circumstance is one in 540,000,” he said.
Globally, NOAA reported in May that the average temperature in April was 1.17 degrees warmer than the average from the past century, making it the fifth-warmest April since at least 1880.
It was the 326th consecutive month that global temperatures exceeded the 20th-century average, NOAA said.
The warm spring weather in the United States was partially the result of the waning La Niña, a pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific that tends to help direct the high-level jet stream and influence weather patterns nationwide.
But it was also partially the result of long-term climate change, Crouch said.
“The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” he said.
…
A shift in the biosphere is possible by 2100 if nothing is done to better predict changes and act upon them, said Anthony D. Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley and lead author on the Nature article.
“If we do nothing, I personally think we hit this tipping point,” Barnosky said Friday. “It means the world will be very different, losing biodiversity and (affecting where) species live in particular places.”
Full story here
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It is also interesting and a bit humorous to note this table at NCDC, where the word “coolest” is verboten.
For example:
| Nome, AK | 9.3 °F | 16.1 °F | -6.8 °F | -1.5σ | 99th warmest of 104 yrs |
5th coolest would be the way I would describe that.
Yes it was a warm spring. But not warm everywhere. But was it really driven by AGW, and was it “The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” ?
This is the same sort of logic that is employed as we saw during the Russian Heat Wave of 2010.
One spot on the globe becomes the focal point and “proof” that AGW is happening. This gets touted in the media. Then later, a study comes out saying AGW wasn’t the main driver.
NOAA on the Russian heat wave: blocking high, not global warming
But that doesn’t get much attention because it doesn’t have a gloom and doom quality for MSM News.
But this was found to be based on a synoptic pattern, basically weather noise. This spring in the USA is no different. Even the father of global warming, Jim Hansen says the same thing: (hat tip to Chris Horner and the CEI FOIA efforts for us being able to see this email)
And here in the article excepted above, Jake Crouch, CNN, and other MSM outlets aren’t even talking about a full year, just three months.
“If it bleeds it leads”, was never more true.
Some graphs: (thanks to Joe D’Aleo, all data NCDC data)
The state monthly records through the end of the 2009.. This depicts the 12 monthly records for the 50 states (600 data points). There were likely March heat records set in some states and perhaps some other months so the 2010s will show and take away from some prior years.
The 1930s stands out as the hottest decade, the 1910s and 1950s were second, 1990s third and 1980s fourth. This decade doesn’t rank although it is early.
All time cold records look like this.
It seems the climate was much more variable, with more extremes in the 1930’s.
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I think Glenn and Bill Tuttle are locating some interesting discrepancies in the discussions of these scientists versus the reality of what we can actually see in the world.
Bill Tuttle says:
June 10, 2012 at 2:59 am
Glenn says:
June 9, 2012 at 11:16 pm
I do not see that in the abstract provided free from Nature. But one of the co-authors, Nick Matzke, said on the Panda’s Thumb:
“Humans are also engaging in massive external forcing of ecosystems, first by direct conversion (43% of the Earth’s land surface has already been converted to agricultural use)…”
Well, if he’s not counting that part of the Earth’s surface that’s desert, forest, mountains, double- and triple canopy jungle, tundra, prairie, or swampland — nah. Still doesn’t add up.
@Glenn Skankey
The tiny graphic with the Abstract shows some of the genesis of the 43% value. Hard to see.
Arable land is about 10% of the land surface with less than half of it in annual cultivation. The meaning of agricultural land may be stretched to include forest products and use of pastures but to believe Nick Matzke’s statement that “43% of the earth’s land surface has already been converted to agricultural use . . ” requires some sort of solid citation rather than an odd quote like “humans are engaging in massive external forcing of ecosystems”. In my opinion, scientists gathering to brainstorm “solutions” to problems need to be very careful about reporting their findings to the media. Folks tossing these bits of ill informed “facts” out there for CNN or Rueters to pick up are not promoting solutions but rather creating more problems.
I have no respect and cannot “believe” any of these so called scientists anymore. Fortunately science is not a belief system so unless these folks can show me the data, they are wasting my time.
Bernie
If “tipping points” existed, there would be no life or atmosphere on Earth.
We exist, therefore “tipping points” do not exist.
There is another temperature picture that Hansen does not give . According to NOAA/NCDC in the Contiguous US since 1998, the year to date , annual , winter,spring and fall temperatures all show declining temperature trends . Only the summer shows a rising trend . In Canada since 1998 the annual,summer and fall linear tempertaure deviations from 1961-1990 averages show completely flat linear trends . The spring temperature trend is falling . Only the winter temperature trend shows a rise mostly due to last year’s warm winter , otherewise it also was flat up to 2011. Regionally and annually of the 11 regions in Canada according to Environment Canada , 7 regions show declining temperature deviations , 2 are flat and only 2 are up[ mostly high Arctic . ] So according to my analysis there is no overall warming trend or tipping point present in the North American temperature trends . Lets keep things in proper perspective .
“the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities”
no way. the total land area of the planet is 57,308,738 Sq. Miles.
but alinsky recommended absurdity as a means outrage in order to validate the troll’s credentials by the emetic effect on rational persons in his book Rules for Trolls.
How can you trust these guys when they can’t even do a standard probability calculation. 12 times in a row of any 50/50 odds is 1 in 4096 not 1 in 540000 so they are out by more than 2 orders of magnitude before they even start – just nuts.
Hansen’s comment about looking at the global temperature record is revealing. It is this which is in the hands of the very climate scientists who have been predicting Global Warming.
Consider this.
– We have strict audit controls in accountancy, because we know that of conflicts of interest in business producing their profit measures. They may profit from misdirecting others, like shareholders and tax authorities.
– We have strict regulations on testing pharmaceuticals, as companies may exaggerate the benefits and understate harmful side effects.
– In national statistics, we do not view as reliable figures which are not produced by an independent statistics bureau.
So why should we consider reliable global temperature figures be any different?
Compare
http://www.economist.com/node/21548229
the contact details at this site – http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Whenever a skeptic quoted 1934 as ‘the warmest year’ the AGW proponents howled them down saying but that was only the USA it was not the hottest year globally! So now we get to a similar position again – and all of a sudden the AGW requirement for the heat to be global is dropped? How very climate scientist of them.
Steven Kopits says:
June 9, 2012 at 10:41 am
“How the Electric, Self-Driving Miracle Car Will Change Your Life”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/08/self_driving_car?page=0,0
. . . And save the world.
A: Did you write the title and the sub-head, also? Because those of us beyond retirement age and living in rural areas will need a miracle to see much change in our lives from electric vehicles. Mostly these things will belong to the next generation.
B: However, a group of people that cannot drive but generally function well (poor visual capability being just one reason), could benefit greatly by a fleet of small self-driving vehicles. Locally, a subsidized small bus (~24 seater) can pick people up for shopping, doctors visits, and so on – with a severely restricted schedule. Weekends and evenings – say for a free concert at the local university – are not serviced. So bring these things on. Use the money now going to supporting the CAGW agenda.
C: Batteries need to be handled like a tank of gas. Build a battery plaza or Miracle Car Emporium (MCE) for “on the fly” exchange of power packs. Without the cost of buying an expensive and “rapidly” changing component — these vehicles would have a better chance. A breakthrough in battery technology would have no consequences for the owner of the car. The Better Place station is a prototype:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2066975,00.html
D: Pickup trucks (common in rural areas) ought to have a solar-panel canopy fully wrap-around to charge the battery. For a full sized pickup that would be about 80 sq. feet of collector. Develop a spray-on collector. Cost should not be more than the 3-layer fancy paint jobs called “pearls.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearlescent_coating
Hoser says:
June 9, 2012 at 10:47 am
Early record levels . . .
Records, cycles, normal distributions and so on – try this:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/record-temperatures-and-female-fields.html
John F. Hultquist says:
June 10, 2012 at 7:47 am
D: Pickup trucks (common in rural areas) ought to have a solar-panel canopy fully wrap-around to charge the battery. For a full sized pickup that would be about 80 sq. feet of collector. Develop a spray-on collector. Cost should not be more than the 3-layer fancy paint jobs called “pearls.”
If you’re talking about a camper-type outsert for a pickup’s bed, between gravel, dust, and errant tree limbs, most solar-types around my neck of the woods would be completely destroyed within a few weeks. They might do well in the UCLA* area, though.
*Upper Central Lower Alabama
Brian H says:
June 9, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Bill;
Since AGW lives exclusively in GCMs, there may very well be a mechanism therein which emulates causation of blocking highs.
AGW in my Gun Control Module?!? So *that* explains why my M134’s dispersion has been all over the map!
Bill Tuttle says:
June 10, 2012 at 8:35 am
“. . . completely destroyed . . .”
http://www.seeitornot.faketrix.com/content/thrash-pics/page2/originals/pickup-truck-overloaded-vehicle-crash-picture.jpg
Curiousgeorge says:June 9, 2012 at 6:36 pm
“@ur momisugly markx ……Be careful what you say …”
Thanks for the warning George, but I don’t think my comment implies ANY sort of ‘threat’. Not that I’d construe Keller’s statement as a threat either, but I’ve expressed no desire to ‘meet’ anyone.
I agree with what Hansen says if you remove the implication that only ‘contrarians’ cherry pick data.
The statement of one year’s data being quite noisy holds for warmistas too.
Quite frankly, the fact that it has been ‘quite warm’ the past 10 years is, in real times, climatological noise too.
The public have been blitzed with the notion that a decade is enough for a ‘tipping point’, when science would indicate that it is nothing of the sort. A tipping point may come within a decade, but a decade may not be enough for a tipping point. Pretty simple really: it depends on the data.
First question: what defines a ‘tipping point’?
Second question: what degree of certainty in ascribing a ‘tipping point’ is a suitably scientific certainty?
Third question: how rigorous is the calculation of ‘certainty’??
Not much for Mr Hansen to answer there, is there????
KnR says:
Once again we find that weather is climate but only if it helps ‘the cause ‘
They can’t even stick to their own dam ideas on what is and what is not climate .
Or for that matter what is “local” and what is “global”…
Dear Mr (Dr ?) Crouch
When the surface temperature record has been manipulated as much as it has, and always in the same direction, the odds drop of a string of anomalous high temps drop from 540,000 : 1 to evens.
Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.
“..abrupt and unpredictable..” – After all the billions we’ve thrown at these fools they warn of “warming” but refer to all of it as “unpredictable”.
I WANT MY MONEY BACK!
****
OssQss says:
June 9, 2012 at 8:02 pm
****
Thanks for those old videos. The first season of “Lost in Space” was actually very good, until “Dr Smith” started dominating it.