Guest post by David Archibald
The first prediction of the current climatic minimum was made by Hubbert Lamb in 1970 in a report (Weiss and Lamb) for the German Navy. He did it by making a reconstructed record of the average frequency of south-westerly surface winds in England since 1340. Quoting Lamb “We sense a cycle or periodicity of close to 200 years in length.” and “There may be a valuable indication of the origin of this apparent 200 year recurrence tendency, in that the sharp declines of the south-westerly wind indicated in the late 1300s, 1560s, 1740s-1770s and now, in each case fell at about the end of a sequence of sunspot cycles which built up to periods of exceptionally great solar disturbance (around 1360-80, the 1570s, the 1770s, the 1950s and more recently). The frequency maxima of the south-westerly wind, and evidence of warm climate periods in Europe sustained over several decades, all bear a similar relationship to these variations of the Sun’s activity.”
Following is Figure 11.6 from Lamb’s 1988 book “Weather, Climate and Human Affairs”:
The frequency of the southwest wind at London is shown by the solid line. A tentative forecast (broken line) is made simply by moving the whole curve 200 years to the right, i.e. the forecast implied by accepting the apparent 200 year recurring oscillation shown by the series.
The most successful prediction of the current minimum, in terms of lead time and detail, was made by two researchers in the US later that decade. Using tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon in California, in 1979 Libby and Pandolfi forecast that, “by running this function into the future we have made a prediction of the climate to be expected in King’s Canyon; the prediction is that the climate will continue to deteriorate on the average, but that after our present cooling-off of more than the average decay in climate, there will be a temporary warming up followed by a greater rate of cooling-off.”
In a Los Angeles Times interview, Libby and Pandolfi gave a more detailed forecast:
“The forecast is for continued cool weather all over the Earth through the mid-1980s, with a global warming trend setting in thereafter for the rest of the century – followed by a severe cold snap that might well last through the first half of the 21st century.”
“Both the isotope record and the thermometer record show neat agreement for the cold decades at the ends of the 17th and 18th centuries, when temperatures fell by 1-10th to 2-10ths of a degree.”
“More recently, the world has enjoyed an agricultural boom during the past 70 years or so. The Earth’s annual average temperature has risen by about 1 to 1½ degrees, about as much of an increase as the decrease during the Little Ice Ages, during this interval.
When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now thorugh the mid-1980s. “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold – if we believe our projections. This has to be tested.”
How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”
The remarkable thing about the Libby and Pandolfi prediction is that they got the fine detail right, up to the current day, which gives a lot of credence to their projection for the next fifty years.
In 2003, two solar physicists, Schatten and Tobiska, published a paper which included the following prediction: “The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
The next prediction of the current minimum was made by Clilverd et al in 2006 using low-frequency solar oscillations:
Clilverd predicted that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would have amplitudes similar to that of Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum before a return to more normal levels mid-century.
A Finnish tree ring study (http://lustiag.pp.fi/holocene_trends1000_INQUA.pdf) followed in 2007 – Timonen et al. This is a portion of a figure from that study showing a forecast cold period starting about 2015 that is deeper and broader than any cold period in the previous 500 years:
Summary
Libby and Pandolfi provided timely warning of the current cooling more than thirty years ago, through the proper use of tree ring data. Given the enormous societal and financial consequences of that cooling, it would be good application of climate research funds to have a number of groups replicate and update the Libby and Pandolfi work.
References
Clilverd. M.A., Clarke, E., Ulich, T., Rishbeth, H. and Jarvis, M.J., 2006 “predicting Solar Cycle 24 and beyond” Space Weather, Vol. 4, So9005, doi:10.1029/2005SW000207
Libby, L.M. and Pandolfi, L.J. 1979, Tree Thermometers and Commodities: Historic Climate Indicators, Environment International Vol 2, pp 317-333
Schatten, K.H. and W.K.Tobiska 2003, Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?, Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 35 (3), 6.03
Timonen, M., Helema, S., Holopainen, J., Ogurtsov, M., Eronen, M., Lindholm, M., Merilainen, J and Mielikainen, K. 2007 “Climate patterns in Northern Fennoscandinavia during the Last Millenium” Xvii INQUA Congress
Weiss, I. and Lamb, H.H. 1970 ‘Die Zunahme der Wellenhohen in jungster Ziet in den Operationsgebieten der Bundesmarine, ihre vermutliche Ursachen and ihre voraussichtliche weitere Entwicklung, Fachlich Mitteilungen, Nr. 160, Porz-Wahn, Geophysikalisher Bertungsdiesnt der Bundeswehr.
It’s definitely colder here in NSW Australia. I lost my veggie patch two months ago to frost (that’s two months before Winter). Now that we’re right on the brink of Winter, we’re had minus C every day for two weeks straight (most frequently -5 C). It’s going to be a long cold Winter this year, with more to come by the sound of it.
Pamela,
Here is a link to the 2500m ages from Gebbie and Huybers.
http://geosciencebigpicture.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/2500-metre-age-from.png
You can see that the abyssal water off california is 1600 years old.
One can think of the PDO as an alternation in upwelling between the eastern and western North Pacific. The bottom water for the THC is formed in the North Atlantic and the Antarctic Vortex. I doubt that anyone knows to what extent this bottom water is entrained in the upwelling, but if it is, the water upwelling in the current California PDO phase was formed during the fall of the Western Roman Empire.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 20, 2012 at 12:41 pm
The Libby and Pandolfi projection is well past its sell by date.
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I don’t see the logic. The longer a prediction rings true, the greater its value.
The prediction that is well past its sell by date is the mainstream climate science prediction that warming would continue and accelerate post 2000.
What we have seen instead is very limited warming, below the most optimistic IPCC projection for what would have been possible if we eliminated 100% of all CO2 emissions in 2000. Yet CO2 emissions are accelerating under UN policies as jobs are shipped from energy efficient factories in the west to less energy efficient facilities in the east, all in the name of reducing CO2.
Now we hear “warmest decade in 1000 years”. Which of course means that 1000 years ago condition were warmer, without any human CO2 production, which means that current temperatures are within natural variability.
Look at the 1930’s to find a warm decade. We have seen anything like the dust bowl conditions that existed at that time. This tells us that current conditions are likely not as warm as they were at that time. 1934 was the warmest year on record in the US until Steve McIntrye pointed it out. You can adjust the records, but there are still folks that remember.
Read the CIA report from the 70’s and the famine that was projected if cooling continue. The world is fortunate this didn’t happen, and the 80’s and 90’s continued the earlier warming, and agriculture boomed. We fed the increasing population due to warm weather.
If temperatures start to drop there will be starvation and famine on a scale we cannot yet imagine. What would happen in our modern cities with 10+ million people if the food supply was cut off?
http://mgg.coas.oregonstate.edu/~andreas/pdf/S/schmittner07agu_intro.pdf
Good basic intro to oceanic overturning circulation. If I were a climate scientist, this is where I would be doing research. And I would hope that others would be looking to the atmosphere for the other part. It should be basic research geared towards temperature, density, and pressure measurment as well as the flow of conditions from one area to the next.
NOAA proclaiming near record warmth:
NOAA hoping no one pays attention to this important part:
Ignore the last part of the linked article. It introduces the obligatory dreaded CO2 affects on the circulation patterns. By the way, the article is from a book.
Oh dear, Pamela is at it again. That big shinny hot thing in the sky is moot. Yeah. Sure. I still can’t find something else in the solar system that caused simultaneous heat-ups on the inner planets. Perhaps the CO2 from my F150 and the cow farts all had such high escape velocities they made it all the way to the other planets. EIther that or those darn Martians and Venusians are sneaking in SUV’s and charcoal grills while I wasn’t looking.
Fairly OT, but right now the Sun here is in complete eclipse, and the sky is dim.
7:38 am, Monday 21 May in Tokyo.
u.k.(us) (May 20, 2012 at 1:44 pm) suggested:
“Don’t be too hard on our fiery Irish lass.
We are all here seeking truth, as best we can.”
“Seeking” truth? Pamela ignores truth.
Her acidic spin is strictly inadmissible under existing observational data [ http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png – from ftp://ftp.iers.org/products/eop/long-term/c04_08/iau2000/eopc04_08_IAU2000.62-now ].
I can suggest that you consider sensibly reordering your hierarchy of loyalties to acknowledge the dominance of the most fiery lass: Nature.
Regards.
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Trude Red And Sparkly Paladin says:
May 20, 2012 at 8:39 am
It would be quite ironic if the very things globalwarmists are trying to get rid of are the very things which prevent complete freezing.
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You might enjoy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallen_Angels_%28science_fiction_novel%29
http://www.baenebooks.com/10.1125/Baen/067172052X/067172052X.htm?blurb
Paul Vaughan says:
May 20, 2012 at 1:25 pm
“Careful inspection reveals that she remains a STUNNING natural beauty.
…And she’s having a VERY interesting relationship with Father Sun:
Solar-Terrestrial-Climate Weave
http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png
”
Fascinating, Paul – the checkerboard pattern repeats after 22 years (a full magnetic reversal cycle). What variable do you show? Simple temperature anomaly?
Latitude says:
Thanks Lat.
The FOURTH warmest. I guess the folks at the Weather Channel MIS-read the stats.
Bob the Swiss says:
May 20, 2012 at 11:50 am
In Switzerland 2 days ago it snowed at 800m. In the newpapers they compared this with temperatures known during 1700 period …. the ‘litte ice age’…..
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Well on the opposite side of the Atlantic it was 44F (7C) this morning. The record low was 39F ( 4C) in 2002. Normally the highs are in the nineties (33C) by this time of the year and the lows around 60F (16C) (Mid North Carolina)
Mike says:
May 20, 2012 at 11:54 am
When is solar max for cycle #24 expected ? Surely it is getting close.
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Depends on who you ask but 2013 is a common date given. If it does what other weak cycles do it may be at the “peak” and plateau for three or more years. Google Layman’s sunspot count for some decent graphs. (quick access)
Myrrh says…..
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Myrrh, Do not miss the “update” to Milancovitch. http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/07/in-defense-of-milankovitch-by-gerard.html
Luboš Motl gives a good summary and a link to the paper.
Pamela Gray says:
May 20, 2012 at 2:08 pm
“Again, the null hypothesis, and where our research dollars should be going, is that Earth’s instrinsic systems create these temperature trends.”
That`s a recipe for keeping the money coming and never finding an answer. The trends are trends because of anomalies, and no one will ever find an internal solution to the cause of the anomalies as they are solar driven. With planetary ordered solar theory, I can see exactly what was going on month by month through Maunder and Dalton, and any high or low you care to mention through the Holocene. Clearly, changes in the solar wind speed/temperature are responsible for large short term variations in land temperatures and AO, AAO and NAO status, and are also driving ENSO phase. The only unclear factor is whether we dealing with a small signal that is being amplified by affects on clouds/winds, or whether there is any appreciable extra heat input into the system when the solar wind speed is higher. For example, when the thermosphere gets warmed up 1000 deg C by high speed solar winds, is there an increase in IR from it to the troposphere/surface ? Or the total heat at Earth`s bowshock, which can reach similar temperatures to the corona of the Sun, do we see any of that heat radiate to the surface ? I can`t say I have ever heard of either being considered.
We are all here seeking truth, as best we can.
Pamela Gray says:
May 20, 2012 at 2:08 pm
I understand the theory behind Milankovitch’s suggestion that an eliptical orbit could be the trigger for large scale glaciation. I am not focused on large scale glaciations in my treatise on temperature trend drivers. However, even those much longer cycles are ALSO an intrinsic factor entirely Earth bound. It’s oddly configured trip around the Sun and its strange wobble in the tilted spin as it turns about its axis is the theorized effective mechanism, not solar output.
I’ve found some here:
Schmitt: The Central Role Of The Sun In Climate Change
Harrison Schmitt
http://climatephysics.com/2010/07/10/the-central-role-of-the-sun-in-climate-change/
The way I see it, is that the major cycles are now well enough understood, but although the sunspot cycles are also now being shown to correlate to warming and cooling events within that I think the emphasis is out of skew – the Vostok graphs simplified show dramatic temp rises into interglacials and then a leisurely decline back into our Ice Age, what these variations in Sunspot are doing appears to be merely giving an extra boost into warm within what would otherwise be a steady decline to the ice age norm conditions, hiccups of heat and cold. It does make for a fascinating jigsaw to put all these together.
There are a few gems among the warmist memes here:
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/
“The jet stream is a river of air that flows roughly west to east across the Earth. It varies a lot season to season and year to year, and it can affect regional weather quite strongly. A dip south can bring very cold arctic air to one place while a northward kink keeps another region temperate. When the jet stream is strong it flows well and that doesn’t happen, but when it’s weak it can meander, flopping north and south in various locations. The jet stream strength and direction depends on many factors, including, of all things, ozone.
The dependence is complicated, but the bottom line is the jet stream is weaker when there’s less ozone (it has to do with latitude-dependent temperature gradients across the upper atmosphere; those gradients are strong in winter and weak in summer). Ozone creation depends on UV from the Sun, which is weaker during a solar minimum. See where this is going? Weaker magnetic activity on the Sun means less ozone which means a weaker jet stream which means it meanders more, bringing cold air south in some places.
And where does that happen preferentially? Give yourself a gold star if you guess Europe.”
It seems to me that we can tell from the sunspots cycle how hot or cold it will be on the way down in the larger cycle. The variations then would perhaps be like the Younger Dryas and Devil’s Hole anomalies, there’s something else happening, globally or locally, to give the variations on the steady heartbeat of the cycles in and out of glacial conditions which has been around for the last c780,000 years when we had the last Earth’s magnetic field reversal, and iirc we’ve had two polar ice caps since that time, before this epoch only one.
Richard M said (May 20, 2012 at 10:14 am)
“…You may see warmists jump onto something like this. They now have an explanation for the halt in warming. They will claim that a lack of significant cooling means the warming has only been held back for a few decades only to return even stronger when this cycle ends…”
Problem is, we’re being conditioned to accept the “fact” that the evil CO2 has been the sole driver of climate since the industrial revolution, that it’s able to override all other natural causes.
If the cold cycle comes, it’s gonna be harder for “climate scientists” to get people to look at that increasing global CO2 level and think “warming”. And if the “warming” is predicted in the middle of a deep freeze, the people will be PRAYING for warmth, and will do whatever will get them there (such as burning lots more fossil fuels), and CO2 be damned.
Gail Combs says:
May 20, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Myrrh says…..
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Myrrh, Do not miss the “update” to Milancovitch. http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/07/in-defense-of-milankovitch-by-gerard.html
Luboš Motl gives a good summary and a link to the paper.
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Thanks Gail – I didn’t realise Milancovitch was still being argued over.. Brilliantly spotted by Gerard Roe, given that the last 30 years have been designed to deflect us from the real science thinking of the likes of Nigel Calder with his pocket calculator.. http://calderup.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/milankovitch-back-to-1974/
ferd berple says:
May 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm
“I don’t see the logic. The longer a prediction rings true, the greater its value.”
Their call for when “it will get really cold” was about 15yrs premature, I don`t see much value in that.
ferd says:
“If temperatures start to drop there will be starvation and famine on a scale we cannot yet imagine.”
Well from my analogues 2015 to 2024 looks like it will the longest cold period this century, and several poor seasons are definitely going to impact agricultural production. Some decent grain reserves would be very much appreciated in 4+ years time.
In reply to Myrrh http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/20/premonitions-of-the-fall-in-temperature/#comment-989986
and,
William McClenney http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/20/premonitions-of-the-fall-in-temperature/#comment-989990
John Kehr wrote a book which in part talks about the Milankovitch cycle in some detail and has stated that was are now in Autumn part of the cycle meaning the Interglacial period is almost over.
He make’s a good case to show that the Milankovitch cycle is real and operating on schedule.
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/the-book/
He recently posted some revealing charts from his book here here :
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/chapters-1-3/
Scroll to near the bottom where he posted charts on the procession of the worldwide cooling that came in two main phases and also the Eemian temperature anomaly.
It is in later charters is where he shows that the Holocene is nearly over and that the planet has been cooling down for around 4,000 years.That each successive 1,000 years is cooler than the previous one just as it happened in other interglacial periods before it.
He use a lot of charts in those chapters too.
It is a darn good read!
I have the book in Kindle and posted a honest review at Amazon.com book review.here:
A Nice Educational Book
http://www.amazon.com/review/R1PNDI279EADEH/ref=cm_cr_pr_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B006009P8W&linkCode=&nodeID=&tag=
This is interesting, many of us have developed a contempt for the Climate Research Unit (CRU) since the release of the two batches of emails that exposed the extent of the rot that had set in, due to the activities of a team of climate scientists bent on owning and skewing research funding to serve their agenda.
Maybe we should devote more time to working with dedicated scientists to restore the CRU, to the sort of institution devoted to science and in memory of Lamb. Encourage whoever holds the key to the rest of the as yet, unreleased emails, to release them, so we can have a final cleansing of the temple of learning, once and for all, and not to destroy the CRU, but to restore the scientific integrity of Lamb as a benchmark of honour to his lifelong work.
The ultimate triumph of the lambs over the wolves of deception.
Perhaps we should start a movement to bring on such a restoration, I am sure that we can come up with an appropriate title for the mission.
I sincerely hope we are not facing a Bond event. It would be catastrophic for a large portion of the world’s population. Russia and China would suffer terribly, Canada would likely become barely habitable. It would be a horrible time.
So we are moving towards a climate zone 2 from the 3 where I currently live. Glad the University of Saskatewan has been researching these babies
http://www.fruit.usask.ca/haskap.html
I’m getting some for my yard this year. Even -7 Celsius doesn’t kill the open blossums. Talk about a tough plant (and tasty fruit as well).
Billions will die.