There was a lot of controversy leading up to this moment, as we covered previously on WUWT where NSIDC put a new trailing average algorithm online with no notice, and bungled the climatology in the process, needing a fix. As has been the case before when NSIDC data goes wonky it was those bloggers of “breathtaking ignorance” who spotted the issue before NSIDC did and brought it to their attention.
Here’s today’s graph: (NSIDC publishes a day behind)
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
Now, it should be pointed out that it hasn’t crossed the normal line, and it only touches it because of the line width, it is still ever so slightly below normal according to Cryosphere Today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
I noted yesterday that the difference was -0.070, so it has nudged away from the normal line a bit. This is supported by the NORSEX data, enlarged here:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png
Clearly though, by the NORSEX data, Artic Sea Ice was briefly above the 1979-2006 monthly average, but is now headed back down. NSIDC’s trailing average will filter out this short above normal excursion, and I predict that it will turn slightly away from the normal line tomorrow or the next day.
Overall though, we have a pretty full north polar ice cap, especially in the Bering Sea, which has seen record high extents this year. This is encouraging:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.png
All of this bears watching at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page but we’ll soon be into the ho-hum period when all of the years data converge on the way to the minimum sometime in September. While we have near normal extent now, that doesn’t always translate into near normal minimums.
Paul Westhaver says:
April 26, 2012 at 8:51 am
I want to know what is sacrosanct about the 1979 to 2000 average?
==========================================================
Paul, this explained it to me better than anyone had……
Rewriting The History Of The Arctic
NSIDC tells us that the satellite era began in 1979, and they show extent declining steadily during that period.
This is fascinating, because the 1990 IPCC report told us that the satellite era began in 1972, and that ice extent was much lower in 1974 than in 1979.
NSIDC has been hiding the incline, but what about the period before 1974? The widely published graph below shows a sharp drop in ice extent from 1969 to 1974.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/04/25/rewriting-the-history-of-the-arctic/
but, but, but the Arctic screams “Its Piomas chart after Piomas chart all the way down!”
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
In my opinion, the temperature chart on WUWT Sea Ice reference page is the most critical. If there comes a summer where the temperature in the Arctic does not cross above the horizontal black line (melt line), then we might be in serious trouble. This chart is also, IMHO, the best predictor of summer minimum, barring unusual wind conditions like those in ’07.
Bill
Frank K. says:
April 26, 2012 at 9:03 am
John West says:
April 26, 2012 at 9:07 am
If it wasn’t for all that nonsense, this would be a complete non-issue.
As it is, there is nothing more enjoyable that the prospect of watching self-appointed, so-called “experts” fall flat on their backsides.
I wouldn’t be too excited about this, it was very similar in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as well, this year’s value is only slightly above this new cycle. I’m pretty sure it won’t hold near the line and will sink again. Check the interactive chart:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
…and disable all years before 2008. you’ll see this year is pretty normal.
Before we start blasting all the ecomentalist about their bad/wrong predictions of an ice free arctic, let’s remember, there are 4-5 months before the minimum is reached. It’s could happen :^)
Would it be possible to find graphs, or make graphs, of each years ice extent plotted against the ’79-’06 average? It could be done in 5 year blocks to keep the lines readable. It might help in understanding variability over the years.
“Normal” – does that mean it is at right angles to the plain of existence?
RE: GoodCheer says:
April 26, 2012 at 8:46 am
Ice covers slightly less than (or maybe just over) the recorded average. It is interesting that the fraction of new, 1st year ice has increased dramatically, while ice over 4 years old (which was about 20% of ice area through the 80′s) is now almost non-existent (about 2%).
I used to love hearing Paul Harvey. “The Rest Of The Story” is quite revealing……
“In the last few years, the melt and export of old ice was less extreme than in 2007 and 2008, and multiyear ice started to regrow, with second and third-year ice increasing over the last three years.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Does this mean the nice warm weather is over? (And here I was just barely able to grow ripe tomatoes. I suppose I’ll have to drop back to carrots now.)
Mean while Huffington post has great post of the Antarctics melting????http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/04/26/antarctica-melting-quicker-than-scientists-thought_n_1454848.html
sarc off
Silver Ralph says:
April 26, 2012 at 11:28 am
“… about an Indian faker and charlatan, who claims …
…(and…all the other liberal nutters that believe everything that nutty religious cults preach).”
—————————————————————————
As related to Global Warming Religion the following comes to mind:
Indian faker and charlatan who claims…
liberal nutters
nutty beliefs
nutty religious cults
nutty preaching
The IPCC seems to have a lot in common…
It’s all the same crazy stuff.
Ben Kellett says:
April 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
“On the odd occasion that the current sea ice extent touches the normal line, everyone starts crowing that everything is normal. This is madness! The current sea ice needs to trend as much over the line as it does below it, ”
Globally.
Mycroft says:
April 26, 2012 at 1:04 pm
more nutty.
“and given the cold pdo
Which means warmer water in the Bering and southerly wind stress.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/”
This is incorrect. You graphic shows the ‘winter time’ pattern. The key factor for ice melt is the summer pattern. Have a look at the link below and you’ll see that an NOAA study clearly shows the cold PDO results in cooler water in the Bering sea.
http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/PDO.htm
To be honest this is consistent with the fact that ice there is above average at present – and there seems to have been a recovery in that region since the PDO flip in 2007.
Yill Barber says:
The temperature chart on WUWT Sea Ice reference page is the most critical. (….) This chart is also, IMHO, the best predictor of summer minimum.
It sounds logical to me, but have you done any analysis supporting a relation between temperature and summer minimum? And which time frame is most critical or predictive, in your view?
After 2007, 2008 came with a noticeable recovery in the September minimum, and then there was another big recovery in 2009. I believed that a full recovery was posible and that 2007 had really been an anomalous thing. But when everyone was expecting further recovery in 2010, it went down a little bit. And at that point (even with the two recoveries, they were all in the top 3 of the years with less ice in September), I remember saying to myself, well, it doesn’t matter, I still think ice will recover, it just fluctuates, so a bit down now doesn’t matter as long as we get some more recovery in 2011. But September 2011 came and we had another big loss, reaching almost 2007 levels.
I definitely don’t believe in claims of ice loss predicted for any time closer than 20 years from now. But I do think that we will end up there. Since 2007, we have had very low solar activity and two years with La Niña, and in spite of it all summer ice didn’t really recover to pre-2007 levels. I can’t tell whether that’s a bad or a good thing. But less arctic ice in the future is to be expected.
No-one much cares about the winter ice. Its the summer min that is always the exciting bit.
So, who wants to bet that the summer minimum won’t be substantially below “normal” this summer? I mean, with real money, not just empty words.
REPLY: A number of readers care, and my inbox was full of requests to get an update. You don’t have to read posts or comment on them, nobody is forcing you when you “don’t care”.
My suggestion to Mr. Connolley, is to enter the ARCUS contest as I have done the past two years – Anthony
Rewriting The History Of The Arctic
NSIDC tells us that the satellite era began in 1979, and they show extent declining steadily during that period.
This is fascinating, because the 1990 IPCC report told us that the satellite era began in 1972, and that ice extent was much lower in 1974 than in 1979.
NSIDC has been hiding the incline, but what about the period before 1974? The widely published graph below shows a sharp drop in ice extent from 1969 to 1974.
I have to defend the NSIDC here. They have been learning more about the oldest arctic and antarctic ice from satellites. There are some very good people that work for Walt Meir and my company produced updated Nimbus I (1964), Nimbus II (1966) and Nimbus III (1969-70) images from their High Resolution Infrared Radiometer.
Sometime in the future we will have an almost continuous record going back to the early 1960’s.
The thing is area of rotten ice in the Arctic is some thirteen million square kilometer above average now, because in the old days none of it was rotten, but now one can hardly find a piece that escaped rotting. Admittedly, it is hard, thick, dense and cold as hell, but at its core it is nothing else but water, albeit with molecules being arranged in a curious way. However, it does not make it genuine ice, does it?
I seem to recall some Russian reports covering about 150 years of artic port data as recording artic ice as possibly fluctuating on a 70 year cycle. If the peak ice of the cycle was about thirty years ago then we would have been on steady decline over the most recent period. But if the reports of weakening of the solar cycle potends a bit of cooling, maybe the arctic ice extent will swing back up again.
If it is a cycle then the “normal” line is meaningless, and if the cycle is 70 years then you cannot deduce much over just 30 years. The Stephen Goddard link above is great – could that have been the upswing in ice extent, peaking around 1971?
Personally, I wouldn’t care about arctic ocean ice cover at all if it weren’t for its (apparently) “strong influence on the weak-minded.” 🙂
[off topic, old news ~mod]
“Ice is nice, but liquor is quicker” (after DP).
[page boy wandering around]
“Death Spiral!”
“Death Spiral!”
“Death Spiral anywhere in the house?”
[resounding silence…]