7.8 preliminary estimated strength
Blogging on phone more to follow
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=1&id=pacific.TIBPAC.2012.03.20.1813
7.8 preliminary estimated strength
Blogging on phone more to follow
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=1&id=pacific.TIBPAC.2012.03.20.1813
Kind of a mash-moosh there.
1. When molecules are heated, they move faster Yes
2. and expand. No. The molecules are unchanged; the solid, liquid, or gas spreads out because of more vigorous collisions.
3. the sun’s cooling No. The Sun is not cooling; the “quiet period” is the frequency of breaks in the “surface” due to magnetic storms etc. reducing. = fewer sunspots and less solar wind.
4. earths surface cooling. Maybe. Small cooling or pause in general warming.
5. related to Possible; less solar wind may permit more cosmic ray seeding of clouds causing shading of the surface.
6. the plates are contracting No. Plates are moving, not contracting.
7. increasing seismic activity No. No statistical increase is occurring.
1½-2 out of 7. Not too good.
Oh my god, this earthquake must be linked to the fracking in lancashire, do they have flammable water as well (as shown on al ja beeba last night)?
I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here, but my hackles are starting to fluff-up nicely with this earthquake prediction stuff. Michele’s predictions, which Tall Bloke admires…and I respect Tall Bloke…lead to Bendandi’s planetary alignment stuff, and the folks who are into that are intoTesla coils, with others going off to planetary harmonics, and if one follows up those sources, on we go to crop circles which involve rationalistic explanations along with a cocktail of occult stuff leading to the Mayan Calendar and 2012 cataclysms, which continuum take us…right back to Michele’s planetary alignment hypothesis and earthquake predictions which…on the face of it, look pretty weak to me. This is all confusing to my little brain, knowing that real discoveries were often made by people who also dabbled in the pseudosciences. Anyway, not wishing to offend anyone, I’m getting queezy about all this, but I stand ready to be advised or chastised for my ignorance and paranoia.
@ur momisugly Steinar Midtskogen
say :And also where?
Today …My predictions … 48h global temporal window.
No area or continent.
I am working on the methodology….working in progress.
say :There is a magnitide 7,0 – 7,9 earthquake somewhere every three weeks. That’s about a 5% chance every day.
False
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/
Peter Kovachev says:
March 21, 2012 at 4:07 am
I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here, ..
The truth is that there is no statement from geologists sounding ‘We do understand the physical process which triggers the earthquake and because of that we do know when and where a quake in future will occur.’ To me this indicates that they know nothing more than you.
On the other side there are many serious hints available to the science community that as well earthquakes but also solar flares are connected to planetary geocentric and heliocentric harmonics . For those who belief in statistics, there is a significance that these harmonics correlate with the > Mag 7.0 earthquake frequency.
http://www.up-research.com/image/35year.gif
But statistics only indicate that there is a relation; statistics don’t show which geometry or mechanism cracks the surface of earth or Sun; to solve the whole thing it needs a lot of disciplines and some unbiased researchers, free from the presumptuous talk of the mob in politics and blogs.
The truth is that in the present society there is no one who would pay some scientist for this theme. Like you the society argues ‘One, who deals with planets is known as village idiot, who is involved in communism, witchcraft, UFO’s, aliens, AGW, and worrier on white horses sounding along the sky.
V.
Peter Kovachev says: March 21, 2012 at 4:07 am
I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here,…
Hi Peter
We collect data, look at data, see if there is anything there, if it is than outline some kind of hypothesis, collect more data, firm-up or modify hypothesis, and follow a path towards of formulation of a theory or alternatively discard initial ideas, and then start all over again. It is hard, long work with large uncertainties, where disappointments and failures lead success by a ratio likely to be many 100s:1. Every failure is eliminating one path out of the many, so in itself is a worthwhile contribution to the finding eventual solution.
Science doesn’t advance by doing nothing; there are no ready made solutions.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm
Michele Casati says:
March 21, 2012 at 4:25 am
say :There is a magnitide 7,0 – 7,9 earthquake somewhere every three weeks. That’s about a 5% chance every day.
False
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/
So, three M7 quakes so far this year, I’d call that pretty much on track with that frequency. I googled for the frequency and found 18 a year. Here’s another page saying 15 a year, and also giving the statistics for the last few years:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
I’ve run a seismometer at home for several years which picks up M6+ quakes anywhere in the world, and I’d say that M7 quakes are pretty common. Based on that I’ll happily predict right now a M7 quake within the next 48 hours, and with some luck (but not too much luck) I’ll be right. Have more people making other predictions, and pretty soon someone will be right.
Not knowing much about the science behind quakes, I shall simply imput what I was reading on another site, which begger me down I cannot remember. The prediction was, every 180-186 days an earthquake would happen at or above mag 6, this is due to the earths orbit around the sun, when it appears on the opposite side of the sun to where it was on the last quake, the core will “move”, not flip as some have suggested, but simply move a bit. This will cause a big quake. I was reading this just after Christmas and the prediction was for between March 20 to March 26. So for the poster who asked for a prediction on when the next big one is going to happen, if this persons research is correct, in 180-186 days from this earthquake (which I believe is around September some time) there will be another big one, 6 or higher. As to where, stuff a duck if I have any idea where. So having said that, I personaly will be very interested to see if this persons research/findings/predictions continue to hold out. waiting to be shot down in flames in 3….2……1…….
E.M.Smith says:
March 21, 2012 at 2:37 am
As I understand it, it is not just “phase of the moon” but is “phase of the moon at perigee”.
The analysis I showed http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Full-New.png was precisely using as key times Full [and New] moons within 2 days of Perigee.
Steinar Midtskogen says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:04 am
I’ve run a seismometer at home for several years which picks up M6+ quakes anywhere in the world, and I’d say that M7 quakes are pretty common.
Based on that I’ll happily predict right now a M7 quake within the next 48 hours, and with some luck (but not too much luck) I’ll be right. “
People who are busy on the relation between major earth quake events/location and the planetary pattern along the ecliptic do not playing statistical games to win as you are happy with.
People like me are calculating harmonic indices out of the planetary pattern of the time, which have a relation to major quakes.
That this is different to your statistical game can be seen from a graph about the time in May 2008 in China: the planetary index correlates with the number of global registered earth quakes per day. And because these are global quakes frequencies, it indicates, that the cause is not local, ( a cause from the planet harmonic pattern).
http://volker-doormann.org/china_2.gif
My prediction for a major quake out of the planetary pattern was precise of 35 minutes; you can try to explain it with statistics.
V.
The strangest thing about this earthquake was, that there was an earthquake exercise planned and started 3 minutes before the actual quake took place! See the actual Mexican news item (google) translated! Foreknowledge or mere coincidence? Judge yourself! Watch videos and read article!
Pamela Gray says:
March 20, 2012 at 7:27 pm
John, that reminds me of a song, but I’m either too old or had too many glasses of red wine to remember much of it.
=========
LOL, thanks for sharing Pamela.
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 20, 2012 at 10:12 pm
There is no evidence that earthquakes have anything to do with the phases of the Moon. Here is the number of earthquakes greater than M5.5 since 1900 as a function of moon phase: http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Full-New.png there is no correlation.
=========
Thanks Leif,
Perigee occurred on March 10 after the full moon on March 8. The new moon is due on March 22 with Apogee on March 26. These alignments don’t coincide with yesterdays quakes and Michele’s prediction. It would be interesting to see the calculations she used to make the prediction.
The study Michele Casati cited above is finding a statistically significant correlation based on events from the earthquake catalog. The methodology appears to add the moon position (longitude) and the value of the SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon] angle before the earthquake is plotted with respect to the lunar position.
“During this study it was noticed that the variation of the horizontal component of the earthquake plot (NM-FM-NM (which is also represented as -180 degrees 00 degrees +180 degrees)), has some bearing on the timing of earthquakes picked from a small area of a high-seismicity region. This paper studies and explores this phenomenon in detail.”
The statistically significant correlation is very curious. Note: Earthquakes occur every day in California but it wasn’t included in the study.
Anthony,
I noticed this yesterday and thought I’d mention it.
The NOAA url I follow for earthquakes is http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/
It doesn’t mention the 3rd Mexico earthquake reported above. What’s up with that?
Ran down some more information on USGS.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/260_15_eqs.php
The rift I was referring to is not in this area of Mexico. Its pictured in Guatemala on the USGS site.
Number of earthquakes in the OAXACA, MEXICO:
Today: 10 quakes (4.2 – 5.0) note: 50% are now offshore
Yesterday (20th): 9 quakes (4.6 – 7.4)
@ur momisugly John from CA
My empirical methodology
Look my graphs
There are two stages prior to major events geofisic.
1°step
Charge solar EM (jumps solar wind)
Solar (flare / cme / coronal holes)
2°step
Discharge (Trigger planetarium)
low solar wind
Input new moon or perigee or planetary alignments inside-outside solar system
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079194698001219
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0012821X67900714
http://www.aip.de/thinkshop/posterpaper/mukherjee1.pdf
http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/
http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf
http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf
http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/1104.2036
Michele Casati says:
March 21, 2012 at 8:28 am
===========
Thanks Michele
Do you have a definition of Earth Tides? The one I found and list above doesn’t make any sense.
Very interesting studies. I’m getting a beam me up Scottie moment from this one.
http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/0801.0876
Scale invariability
M. Omerbashich
(Submitted on 6 Jan 2008 (v1), last revised 9 Feb 2010 (this version, v2))
I recently demonstrated that the Earth is a mechanical oscillator in which springtide induced magnification of all-masses resonance forces tectonics. I here generalize this georesonator concept so to make it apply to any body, anywhere in all the universes, and at all times. It turns out that there is no distinction between physics at intergalactic, mechanist, quantum, and smaller scales. Instead of being a constant (of proportionality of physics at all scales), G is a parameter of most general form: G = s e^2, nonlinearly varying amongst different scales s. The so called scale variability of physics but not of G, imagined as such by Planck and Einstein, is due to springtide-induced extreme resonance of Earth masses critically impeding terrestrial experiments for estimating G, while providing artificial settings for quantum experiments to all trivially “work”. Thus the derived equation is that of levitation. Reality is a system of near infinitely many magnifying oscillators, where permanent energy decay of all oscillation forbids constancy of known “physical constants”. This hyperresonator concept explains the magnetism (as every forced oscillator feature), as well as the gravitation (as forward propagation of mechanical vibrations along the aether i.e. throughout the vacuum structure). To test my claim I propose a Space mission to collect on site measurements of eigenperiods of the Sun, its planets, and their satellites. The levitation equitation enables propulsionless Space travel via gravity sailing: Space vehicle hull ought to be engineered so as to automatically adjust its grave mode, to the vehicle instant gravitational surroundings, akin to trout up swimming.
This jumped out at me. Is this true; http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/1104.2036 ?
Astronomical alignments as the cause of ~M6+ seismicity
Mensur Omerbashich
(Submitted on 11 Apr 2011 (v1), last revised 4 Dec 2011 (this version, v5))
I here demonstrate empirically my georesonator concept in which tidally induced magnification of Earth masses’ resonance causes seismicity on Earth. To that end, I show that all strong (~M6+) earthquakes of 2010 occurred during Earth’s long (t > 3 days) astronomical alignments in our solar system. I show that the same holds true for all very strong (~M8+) earthquakes of the decade of 2000’s. Finally, the strongest (M8.6+) earthquakes of the past century are shown to have occurred during Earth’s multiple long alignments too, whereas half of the high-strongest (M9+) earthquakes occurred during Full Moon. To add to my solution’s robustness, I include alignments to comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) as the only heavenly body currently in our solar system besides planets, and show it impacted very strong seismicity since 2007 (and strongest seismicity, perhaps since 1965). I conclude my empirical demonstration with a two-month, 100%-successful forecast of M6+ magnification, performed online in near real-time in Oct-Nov 2011, and which shows always the same pattern of intensifying-peaking-diminishing of strong earthquakes’ strength during long alignments, and the absence of the pattern outside alignments. Days without killer quake can now be known exactly, amounting to months a year of exact seismic forecast (telling with certainty there will be no strong seisms on that-and-that date). Approximate forecast of strength and timing of strong earthquakes is feasible for the rest of the year, as well as of location once the alignment begins. I thus verified my hyperresonator concept, arrived at earlier as a mathematical-physical solution to the most general extension of georesonator. Hyperresonance is akin to tuning forks triggering each other at distance, so my discovery demonstrates the existence of aether as required for propagation of tuning (interfering) oscillations in Space.
Volker Doorman and vukcevic,
Thank you for your kind replies, gentlemen. And my apologies for taking so long to get back. I like your arguments that research into physical phenomena is a slow, tedious and even risky process and the fewer impediments, the better. I also like the idea of statistics as a sound arbiter. As I grow longer in the tooth, I’m stumbling towards the disconcerting conclusion that certainties are imaginary constructs and all that we think we know is a messy clump of beliefs based on our evaluation of statistical probabilities. I’ll never know if I’ve finally come upon wisdom or slid into idiocy. O, well.
I think what I’m trying to understand is where the borders between science and pseudoscience on this one are. I can already tell that they’re not as sharply delineated as in medicine. With medicine you have medical schools, academia and associations with strict rules, and you have a huge inducement in the private sector to discover anything that is effective, no matter how odd the direction may be. On the other end, you have insurance firms and in some countries, like in Canada, socialized government-managed universal care and in both cases a great reluctance to pay for nonsense. The up-side to this arrangement is that the majority is reluctant to fork out out-of-pocket money for quakery. It was funny to watch the fad of homeopathy ruffle through the well-to-do sector, but the novely has worn off. Imagine, quakery as a conspicuous consumption.
In researching forecasting of earthquakes, though, there certainly is an inducement, but the Earth sciences mainstream appears to have a greater monopoly through the universities, associations and the peer review process. Nowhere near as much money as in medicine, of course, with most of the funds coming from grands or from exploration investment. So, then, unless you guys are in the system, you are out there in the cold. And lo and behold, sidling up, as I can see on the Web, there is a great number of “outsiders” ranging from mildly eccentric to outright wacky. And they all want to sidle up to you because you lend them legitimacy and you are their gateway to the mainstream. To make things even harder, many of the marginal and out-there researchers re extremely bright people who work their butts off under their own resources and sometimes produce valuable results which makes it hard to give them the cold shoulder. So, I suppose what I think I want to understand is where your borders lie and how you interact between the mainstream and the margins. I hope this made sense.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0008mye.php
Magnitude 6.7 – NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2012 March 21 22:15:05 UTC
Here’s a NASA article with a table of tidal forces: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast04may_1m/
Maximum Tidal Forces of the Sun, Moon, and Planets
on the Earth Solar System Object Tidal Force
Moon 2.1
Sun 1.00
Venus 0.000113
Jupiter 0.0000131
Mars 0.0000023
Mercury 0.0000007
Saturn 0.0000005
Uranus 0.000000001
Neptune 0.000000002
Pluto 0.0000000000001
The article authors do not believe planets, even when aligned, exert any measurable effects, which I suppose, is what the discussion here is about. One of the links in the article specifically and perhaps harshly critiques planetary convergence hypotheses: http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html
Please, don’t challenge me on this, folks; talk amongst your selves, as the saying goes. This stuff is waaaaay above my paygrade. I’ll just celebrate my first venture into (light and superficial) research in the Earth sciences !
WTF???? I posted TWICE, and it said I wasn’t logged in – AND LOST THE ENTIRE COMMENT. Then I put in testing 123 and it went through? WTF???
[Reply: I suggest sending wordpress.com some feedback. ~dbs, mod.]
Peter Kovachev says:
March 21, 2012 at 3:43 pm
…………….
Your list of numbers tells you all you need to know. There isn’t much left in the gravity sphere worth knowing that isn’t already well known.
_Jim says: “Why did the EQ not occur earlier? What is the ‘delay’ mechanism…?”
The delay mechanism is the Mysterious Cavern of the Sugarplum Fairy, into which planetary stresses and Trenberth’s missing heat are stored (“In the pipeline”) until such time as the Hyborian god, Crom, orders them released, Or maybe it’s Chthulu.
vukcevic says:
Your list of numbers tells you all you need to know. There isn’t much left in the gravity sphere worth knowing that isn’t already well known.
Thanks! I’m not a math wiz, but I can use the calculator ny brother-in-law gave me years ago and going by those numbers the gravitational force from our planets are measurable, but of no significance, especially when compared to the relatively massive influence of the Moon and the Sun, both of which…I just learned, like the good boy I am…wreak a veritable havoc on us. The Earth Tide, to my astonishment (but old news to you people here), causes an equatorial bulge around to 38 cm from the Moon and and about 18 cm for the Sun! Not good enough to surf on, but still pretty wild.
So that’s it, then, no other measurable influences of any kind? I see from the linked page in your site that you’re displaying fluctuations in the Solar magnetic field, but you are relating it to temperature not Earth activity. Am I missing something? I ‘m new to this stuff. Lolling about while recovering from pneumonia is getting me into things I never looked at before and I’ll be probably rooting around on the Net ’til two in the morning. This WUWT thing, btw, is pretty neat. If I don’t get off my butt soon and get back to my work I predict…no, I project…that I’ll drive the mods nuts with my gentleman’s science hobby and they’ll block me.
Hi again, Peter
That is another story, but don’t ask for details.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GTC.htm
Just a hobby.