Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
There’s an article in the latest issue of Science magazine, called “Strengthening the UN Agencies In Order To Protect The Authors’ Paychecks” … just kidding, that would be the title if they enforced the “Truth in Advertising” laws for pseudoscientific papers.
In fact it is called “Navigating the Anthropocene: Improving Earth System Governance” (paywalled), apparently named specifically so we won’t be forewarned what it’s about. It is a two page article produced by an entire alphabet of no less than 33 listed authors, from Abbott to Zondervan, supporting my theorem that V ≈ 1 / A^2. (Restated in English, my theorem says that the value V of a scientific article is inversely proportional to the square of the number of authors A … but I digress.)
Figure 1. Are these the kind of men you want to run your global economy and make binding rules governing your everyday actions? Would you buy a used car from either of them? 33 authors say yes …
So what is the huge problem they claim to be curing? First sentence of the article sez:
Science assessments indicate that human activities are moving several of Earth’s sub-systems outside the range of natural variability typical for the previous 500,000 years (1, 2).
Gosh … really? “Science assessments”, that sounds impressive. You mean some scientists have actually falsified the null hypothesis, someone has actually shown that current climate is “outside the range of natural variability” for the last half million years?
Intrigued by claims that someone has completed the daunting task of figuring out how to measure the “variability typical for the previous 500,000 years”, and always willing to learn something new, I turned to references 1 and 2, expecting to find some irrefutable hard-hitting peer-reviewed scientific studies. After all, this is their excuse, the reason for their brilliant plan to redesign the world’s entire economy and governance systems, so it must rest on solid, verifiable science, no?
Well … no. Turns out the references are:
1. W. Steffen et al., Global Change and the Earth System (Springer, New York, 2004).
2. H. J. Schellnhuber et al., Eds., Earth System Analysis for Sustainability (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2004).
That’s it? Two books? From 2004? Steffen has a doctorate in Chemical Engineering and is a strong advocate of carbon taxes. Schellnhuber has a doctorate in Theoretical Physics and his advocacy revolves around the fabled climate “tipping points” that are not visible in the past, that never actually seem to materialize in the present, but are gonna happen real soon, any day now, honest they are.
Both are climate activists first, and second, and climate scientists third. This is the rock on which the 33 authors are building the First Church of Ecological Redemption?
Saying we need to rebuild the world based on that kind of “evidence” is a joke. They claim we need to totally reorganize the planet, install trans-national agencies, restructure the economy, and create a global system of UN governance, based on a couple of books by two climate alarmists that when published, sank like stones, and deservedly so.
I must confess, the arrogance and hubris of these charming folks seems to know no bounds.
But let me set aside that hubris, let me ignore the total lack of support for their underlying claim, and look at what they propose to do based on a couple of books that maybe three people have ever read. To spare them further embarrassment, I won’t expose the equally ludicrous “citations” for their individual claims. Here’s what they say we should do, their seven “building blocks” for our glorious future:
First, the environmental agencies and programs of the United Nations must be reformed and/or upgraded.
Upgraded? Because they’ve been so successful to date? For example they say they want to develop the United Nations Environmental Programme into a “strong environmental organization with a sizable role in agenda-setting, norm-development, compliance management, science assessment, and capacity-building.”
Look, 33 author-folk, I do not want the UN to have ANY role in “compliance management”. That’s just another name for UN eco-cops. I don’t want the UN involved in “science assessment”, that’s a recipe for guaranteed disaster, even scientists struggle with that one. I don’t want the UN involved in any way in “Agenda-setting”, or “Norm-development”, no matter who Norm is. I don’t want them in any of this. These are the same folks who brought us the Kyoto Protocol, soaring energy prices, Agenda 21, pensioners shivering through the winter, tropical forests clear-cut for oil plantations, failed carbon cap-and-trade schemes, and the IPCC … and building on that stunning lack of success, they now want to restructure the world? Thanks, I’ll pass.
Second, it is crucial to strengthen the integration of the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable development, from local to global levels.
What does this mean, “strengthen the integration of the pillars”? How do you “integrate” pillars? This is meaningless bureaucratic bafflegab. I discuss their so-called “pillars of sustainable development” nonsense in my post “Rio+20 meets Agenda 21“.
Third, better integration of sustainability governance requires governments to close remaining regulatory gaps at the global level. One such area is the development and deployment of emerging technologies, such as nanotechnology, synthetic biology, and geo-engineering. Such emerging technologies promise significant benefits, but also pose major risks for sustainable development. They need an international institutional arrangement—such as one or several multilateral framework conventions—to support forecasting, transparency, and information sharing; further develop technical standards; help clarify the applicability of existing treaties; promote public discussion and input; engage multiple stakeholders in policy dialogues, and ensure that environmental considerations are fully respected.
In other words, they say we need some kind of UN global laws to cover just a few things like nanotech, synthetic biology, and geo-engineering … but don’t be concerned that they are only proposing to regulate so little. They will soon extend the regulations to cover other crucial issues like transparency, ensuring that cropland is used to grow fuel instead of food for the hungry, technical standards, cow flatulence, windmill numbers, and “ensuring that environmental considerations are fully respected”. Gotta get that respect …
Does anyone (other than rent-seekers) actually think that having the UN make global laws, or even global recommendations for laws, is a good idea? Has it worked well in the past? Heck, has it ever worked in the past? Nothing springs to mind … but these 33 authors want to build a world economy and governing system based on a UN system that is riddled with waste, corruption, and theft, has only succeeded fitfully if at all in these realms, has absolutely no checks and balances, and these days is known mostly for three things—corruption, meaningless resolutions, and lifelong sinecures with obscenely bloated salaries for the proponents of “sustainability governance” and the like. Spare me.
Fourth, integration of sustainability policies requires that governments place a stronger emphasis on planetary concerns in economic governance. Environmental goals must be mainstreamed into global trade, investment, and finance regimes so that the activities of global economic institutions do not undermine environmental treaties because of poor policy coherence.
This is more lime-green flavored Koolaid. Nothing is sustainable. Sustainability is a chimera, a will of the wisp, with no agreed-on definition. It is a meaningless feel-good word used to justify whatever projects the authors are pushing this week.
Fifth, we argue for a stronger reliance on qualified majority voting to speed up international norm-setting. Political science research shows that governance systems that rely on majority-based rule are quicker to arrive at far-reaching decisions and that consensus-based systems limit decisions to the preferences of the least ambitious country. Yet at the international level, majority-based decision-making is still rare and needs to be further extended especially when Earth system concerns are at stake. Weighted voting mechanisms can ensure that decisions take all major interests among governments into account without granting veto power to any country.
Oh, yeah, “qualified majority voting”, that sounds like a winner in an organization like the UN, where five years ago or so Libya chaired the UN Human Rights Commission, and then it was Iran as Chair, they’re such experts on Human Rights … care to guess in which direction the “weighting” of the “weighted voting mechanisms” is likely to go? Not in your favor, would be my guess …
Sixth, stronger intergovernmental institutions as outlined here raise important questions of legitimacy and accountability.
Yes, they certainly do raise important questions. Unfortunately, these important questions have never been successfully answered. The first question is, why do we need a given UN-based “intergovernmental institution” at all? Second question is, does it do anything but provide a fat salary to pluted bloatocrats? Third question is, how will we kill it when it goes off the rails, as all of these organizations have done in the past? Fourth question, are any of these institutions either legitimate or accountable in the slightest? You know … important questions … but don’t worry, the 33 authors don’t answer them, or even attempt to answer them. For that they’d need maybe 66 authors. They just assume that the very real issues of illegitimacy and un-accountability and widespread corruption and lack of checks and balances, problems that have proven insoluble in the past, don’t really need anything but a few discussions, meetings, and resolutions to fix them right up.
Seventh, equity and fairness must be at the heart of a durable international framework for sustainable development.
I particularly love the seventh “building block” in their seven-point plan. It’s the reason for the whole paper. At the end of the list comes lucky number seven, the real issue, which is “equity and fairness”.
Now, you may not have have guessed this, but “equity and fairness” is the UN secret code for … money.
More money.
Lots of money.
Your money.
Some of which will no doubt eventually flow into the pockets of some of the 33 authors. Some of which will flow to third world despots. And most of which will assuredly line the pockets of unelected bureaucrats.
Perhaps you think I’m wrong about what “equity and fairness” means to the UN? Here’s the rest of the paragraph describing the seventh step, the text that immediately follows the quote above:
Strong financial support of poorer countries remains essential. More substantial financial resources could be made available through novel financial mechanisms, such as global emissions markets or air transportation levies for sustainability purposes.
You see, “equity and fairness” means that the countries like say South Korea or Thailand, that have worked and sweated and sacrificed and saved and built up their economies, need to give their hard-earned money to the other countries that haven’t done that … because that’s fair. And equitable.
Because if we turned off the money tap and said “No thanks, we have all the UN bodies we need, in fact we’re desperately trying to kill some, not make new ones”, the game would be over and the 33 authors of this appeal for money would be out of luck and likely out of a job.
And how fair and equitable would that be, after the authors each worked so hard to provide us with … hang on, let me check … OK, on average each of the 33 authors contributed some 41 words of deathless prose to the document. We certainly wouldn’t want that herculean effort to go unrewarded.
I mean, how fair and equitable would that be, not to mention sustainable, for their checking accounts? How can they integrate the pillars without further funding?
w.
PS—I do love the claim that what we need is “novel financial mechanisms, such as global emissions markets.” I’m not sure where these guys have been living during the past decade. But they must have their heads a long ways up their … ivory towers for them not to have noticed how almost every one of these not-at-all-novel carbon emissions markets has burst into flames and imploded recently. I mean seriously, these 33 author-folk are so out of touch with the real world that they think emissions markets are “novel”. Tragic.
But then failure, even repeated failure, has never been an obstacle to this kind of unsuccessful serial doomcasters. They’ve seen their predictions of catastrophe fail time after time and ignored those failures completely, so why should they not do the same regarding the proven failure of carbon markets?
PPS—Don’t get me wrong. I was green before the color was taken over and corrupted by the “green” organizations. I’m still a conservamentalist. Here’s the truth. The countries of the world need sensible, enforceable environmental regulations, or people just dispose of their industrial waste in the nearest stream or in the atmosphere. We’ve proven that over and over. Basically we’re pigs, and we need to regulate accordingly.
My problem is that the UN is entirely the wrong body to be dealing with these kinds of issues. We’ve also proven that over and over. For evidence regarding the current topic, see inter lots of alia the IPCC, the UNFCCC, Agenda 21, and the unending series of annual extravagant climate parties in sunny tourist destinations thrown at great expense and with little or no return.
The UN has done a few things right in fifty years, but overall it has been an abject failure in most things except for what it was originally set up to do (provide a place for countries to talk about disputes rather than going to war). We need environmental regulations, but we definitely don’t need the UN to point us in the wrong direction.
FURTHER READING: A Miasma of Corruption: The United Nations at 50
Who can we thank for the UN? Wilson? Was it Wilson? I wouldn’t be a bit surprised, since he came up with the “League of Nations” and the UN was formed in 1945 to supposedly quell any possibility of another world war. But no wonder the UN is having problems considering its origin.
I think A. Underdal is Arild Underdal, a political scientist from Oslo who is also associated with the Norwegian AGW-promoting CICERO center:
http://www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/people/aca/stvau1/
I was just posting about Greek government, and they way they selected their officials by lot (actually committees of 10 where today we might have a minister).
That, I believe, is why Greek education is so good. Not only did everyone in the country want all citizens to have the educational skills necessary to sit on one of these committees … but those taking the decisions were not the privileged ones, but those who had the run of the mill ordinary school. The point is that if you get ordinary people running things, they tend to have very different priorities – and that doesn’t mean worse!
So, what if we replaced the UN with say … 12 randomly selected people
What kind of issues would like focus on? Poverty, probably. Healthcare – definitely. Education – yes. The price of food. Fair access to land & resources. Corruption of officials. The lack of decent drinking water.
About 100,000th on the list would be global warming. Sure, they would all say: “of course it is important how we treat the earth, blah, blah … but then they would say … but what really matters to me (and not some daft UN official) is …”
R Zondervan is Ruben Zondervan, director of the “Earth System Governance Project”: http://www.earthsystemgovernance.org/people/person/ruben-zondervan
On that page you’ll also find the full names of the Science paper. I’ve googled a couple more of the names, and they were all political scientists.
2 pages and 33 authors! Sounds like one of those full page ad efforts. What was the font size?
Countries around the world need to become rich first, only then they can afford to protect their environment. And we can’t make them rich by feeding them money. Money is just oil in wheels of a working economy and they need these wheels, not the oil.
This notion isn’t entirely fair. Sometimes the presence of the individual with he vision makes the difference in making it work. It can well be a brilliant development idea but someone else can’t make it work. The Baltimore Orioles have been terrible since Earl Weaver left. Sometimes it is part idea and part idealist.
UN employees do not pay income tax, no matter where they live.
It’s far worse than that. The UN and all its officials have complete legal immunity everywhere. The UN itself does not have any laws covering what we would call crimes. So, while a diplomat with diplomatic immunity can be prosecuted in his home country for a crime, that’s never the case with the UN. You can’t break laws that don’t exist.
The Convention’s core provision with regard to immunity from jurisdiction is found
in article II, section 2, which runs as follows: “The United Nations, its property and assets
wherever located and by whomsoever held, shall enjoy immunity from every form of legal
process except insofar as in any particular case it has expressly waived its immunity.
The raving loons on the left are hell bent on destroying democracy. They are creating their own deity system, the fear of god is replaced with the fear of climate, the world’s first truly left wing religion. Unlike conventional religion where one chooses to practice, the church of climate catastrophe has a no opt out policy, you are a believer whether you believe or not. The religion aims to turn the world into a globalized North Korea, where a massive Politburo exists to bribe and reward like minded scientists and politicians.
norm-development
=====================
Was;nt Norm the fattie in Cheers. Why would they want that kind of development?
They need an international institutional arrangement—such as one or several multilateral framework conventions—to support forecasting, transparency, and information sharing;
==========================
The Marxism of Intellectual Property. The MArxism virus mutates.
Google any one of the full names in with the word ‘sustainability’ and I think you’ll get a hit on the first page, if not the first hit.
Biermann, Frank.,
Kenneth Abbott,
Steinar Andresen,
Karin Bäckstrand,
Steven Bernstein,
Michele M. Betsill,
Harriet Bulkeley,
Benjamin Cashore,
Jennifer Clapp,
Carl Folke,
Aarti Gupta,
Joyeeta Gupta,
Peter M. Haas,
Andrew Jordan,
Norichika Kanie,
Tatiana Kluvánková-Oravská,
Louis Lebel,
Diana Liverman,
James Meadowcroft,
Ronald B. Mitchell,
Peter Newell,
Sebastian Oberthür,
Lennart Olsson,
Philipp Pattberg,
Roberto Sánchez-Rodríguez,
Heike Schroeder,
Arild Underdal,
Susana Camargo Vieira,
Coleen Vogel,
Oran R. Young,
Andrea Brock,
Ruben Zondervan
The UN is a good-old-boys club for the relatives of 1st world politicians and 3rd world dictators.
Wait, where does the 2nd world fit in there? I guess they got folded into the European bureaucratic boondoggle – not sure if that’s “up or down” on the list.
Doesn’t matter, it’s the “league of pleasantly-dressed thugs” anyway.
While the Science article is behind a paywall, readers may be interested in this related interview with the lead author Frank Biermann.
You got that right. Their diplomatic immunity is the stuff of legend in NYC. In years past it would often be in the headlines, these days it barely merits a mention. The outstanding scofflaw parking tickets alone would probably balance the city budget. Of course that is minor compared to the misdemeanors and felonies. Who in their right mind would agree to the concept of diplomatic immunity morphing into criminal immunity?
I want to live to see the day that UN Plaza is leveled and bulldozed into the East River.
US out of the UN
UN out of the US
P.S. Anthony and Mods … WordPress changed something again. Getting various messages like “You must be logged in to comment with that email address.” and “That email address is associated with an existing WordPress.com account, please log in to use it.”, while using the same email address as always. I noticed that Goddard’s site has also been on the fritz. Trying a different email address for now.
Co-author H-J S is from PIK who helped commission a long report from late 2011 “A New Growth Path for Europe”. Here are the opening statements from the executive summary, 2 quotes.
Josef Ackermann: “Make no mistake: a new world order is emerging. The race for leadership has already begun. For the winners, the rewards are clear: Innovation and investment in clean energy technology will stimulate green growth; it will create jobs; it will bring greater energy independence and national security.”
Jean-Claude Trichet: “When the crisis came, the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models immediately became apparent. In the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools. [… } we need to develop complementary tools to improve the robustness of our overall framework [… ] we may need to consider a richer characterization of expectation formation.”
Go get ’em Willis! Huge applause from fellow skeptics and democracy champions over here in the UK. We are also watching carefully the attempts in Australia to silence the global warming truth-tellers and Labour Government critics. All this, plus the EU’s determination to throw good taxpayers money after bad in an attempt to prop up a discredited political European union, orchestrated (of course) by the unelected commissioners of the EC.
The conspiracy of the Left to overthrow democracy and install global government seems to be approaching a critical moment.
For those looking for a clear voice of reason, watch Dan Hannan speaking in Melbourne at the Institute of Public Affairs.
V ≈ 1 / A^2
Nice Eschenbach equation there, Willis!
However I suspect most career scientists will want to go on counting the old way, so that in terms of resumes, a paper with 32 authors has 32 times the resume impact of a single author paper. Even without applying the Eschenbach rule there seems no good reason why a multi-author publication should count for more. One could easily devise a fairer and more meaningful way of dividing the credit while discouraging the proliferation of zombie authors. For example, for a multi-author paper the first-named author could claim, say, 2/3rds of a paper credit, while the other 1/3rd was divided equally between all the other authors.
They could include the name Gore as it would be as plausible a contributer as some of the other ones.
The UN began as an impotent organisation and now it needs a prostatectomy.
From the “Earth System Governance” website:
“The assessment underlying this article has been mandated by the organizers of the huge science conference “Planet under Pressure”, to be held 26-29 March 2012 in London, with several thousand scientists participating. It is also a key contribution of the science community to the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (“Rio+20”).”
Just look at the list of freeloaders and incompetents addressing this massive boondoggle. I suspect you will find many of the “qualified majority” who expect to be voting in international decision-making.
Blade says:
March 16, 2012 at 3:32 am
Glasshouses and stones, Blade!
Check how much the US Embassy owes London in Congestion Charges. It was over £5m a year ago and is increasing with penalty interest every day. Why should I subsidise the US to clog up the roads I want to use???
Willis, as I am sure you are aware, you are just wasting your breath (or ink, or keyboard life). The flimsiness of their arguments is irrelevant, they are just convincing themselves – not difficult since they are convinced already – the opinion of anyone else is not going to be listened to. As far as I can see, ‘global governance’ can only mean world dictatorship, how can anything global possibly be democratic? The closest we get is that the organisations with executive power are appointed by elected governments; or at least governments, some of which are elected. Even then it seems that democracy is increasingly being restricted to choices that are no choice at all. Currently in the UK we have a coalition government that is what should be an unworkable combination of Conservative and Liberal Democrat. They make still lots of noise that give the impression that they are diametrically opposed to each others views, but the process of joint ‘governance’ seems to proceed suspiciously smoothly. I think that ‘liberal elites’ around the world have much more in common with each other than any do with the people they supposedly represent, why would they want the latter to have any say in the business of ‘global governance?’
Hubris from the Dutch Free University: Fundamental change environmental policies necessary
http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/2668/Buitenland/article/detail/3226086/2012/03/16/VU-Fundamentele-verandering-milieubeleid-nodig.dhtml
Please translate Dutch – English in Google Translate
Whenever I see the word “Anthropocene” (especially in the title of a “scientific” paper), I reach for my revolver … or would do, if the UK Gov hadn’t effectively disarmed its citizenry. Thanks as ever, Willis, for a very readable article about something that really needs reading about.
I’d take issue with “Third question is, how will we kill it when it goes off the rails”, though. I see the question as “how do we kill all this UN “global governance” BS before it’s put anywhere near the rails” …
The ring manager gingerly steps over some of the 33 broken and bloodied bodies strewn hither and yon about the ring to raise his arm and award Willis the WorldWide HeavyWeight SmackDown Belt proclaiming him the new World Champion!