From the University of British Columbia, David Flanders is trying to scare Canadians over sea level rise. Only one problem, the math doesn’t work.
Preparing for the flood: Visualizations help communities plan for sea-level rise
Researchers at the University of British Columbia have produced computer visualizations of rising sea levels in a low-lying coastal municipality, illustrating ways to adapt to climate change impacts such as flooding and storms surges.
The researchers are working with a municipality south of Vancouver, Canada that is surrounded by water on three sides and is expecting the sea-level to rise by 1.2 metres by 2100 – a change that would affect a number of waterfront homes, inland suburban developments, roads and farmland.
Considerable infrastructure has been built below current and projected high water levels, and could be inundated in the event of a dike breach. The images produced show how different adaptation strategies that could be implemented in the municipality and are being used to help make decisions about how to best prepare for the future.
“To me, the visualizations are the only way that you can tell the complete story of climate change and its impacts in a low-lying coastal community,” says David Flanders, a UBC research scientist with the Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP), who will present this research at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Vancouver on Sunday. “In other words, seeing really is believing in this case.”
“It can be hard to mentally grasp what rising sea-levels can mean on the ground but our visualizations give people a glimpse of what their future world will look and feel like in their own backyards. They help community members understand how their quality of life can be affected by climate change, and by the decisions they make to deal with climate impacts.”
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  IMAGE:Visualizations of higher water levels in Delta portray what would happen to the community if it does nothing to prepare for rising sea levels.Click here for more information. |
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BACKGROUND
The municipality of Delta, B.C. is in an agricultural region with a population of about 100,000 (Fig. 1). Historically, the municipality has used dykes to protect the land from flooding and tides – a common strategy used by coastal communities.
New provincial guidelines for the construction of new homes have more than doubled the recommended finished floor elevation to compensate for rising high water lines. Similarly, the guidelines for sea dike construction have increased considerably, in some cases suggesting a top-of-wall more than two times their current elevation above mean sea level.
Working with the municipality, Flanders and his colleagues at CALP have created visualizations of sea-level rise in Delta and four alternate scenarios that show different ways Delta could adapt. These were constructed using a cutting-edge 3D geovisualization process that integrates climate modeling scenarios, inundation modeling, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data, land use and urban design.
Visualizations of higher water levels in Delta portray what would happen to the community if it does nothing to prepare for climate change (Fig. 2).
“Combine the sea-level rise with bigger storms, more wind, more waves and high-tide and that’s an enormous amount of water,” says Flanders.
The four alternate scenarios show Delta over the next century where the municipality adopts various strategies to prepare for sea-level rise including: raising the dikes (“Hold The Line,” Fig. 3); building offshore barrier islands to absorb the impact of incoming storms (“Reinforce and Reclaim,” Fig 4); moving parts of the community out of the floodplain and on to higher ground (“Managed Retreat,” Fig. 5); and reducing vulnerability through design by raising homes, roads and critical infrastructure above the floodplain (“Build Up,” Fig. 6).
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 IMAGE:Visualization: The municipality of Delta adopts a strategy of raising the dikes to prepare for sea-level rise.Click here for more information. |
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The visualizations packages not only show what the region could look at the end of the century but also takes into account other important factors like the cost of each solution for the municipality, the cost to individual property owners, and the trade-offs between protecting roads, habitat, homes, waterfront views and agricultural production.
“What is becoming evident is that there is no single, perfect solution. Each alternative pathway has trade-offs associated with it, and this planning process has been very effective at communicating those trade-offs, and assessing acceptability,” says Flanders.
“Communities will have to decide what their priorities are, and likely plan for a mosaic of different solutions, because each neighbourhood has its own set of concerns and its own idea of what will be possible. This visioning process can help inform these kinds of tough decisions that many low-lying communities will have to make over the next 20, 50 and 100 years.”
To produce the visualizations, Flanders is working with other landscape planning researchers at CALP, climate scientists on the climate forecasts, coastal engineers who can calculate what water will do during a storm when it slams against the dikes, land-use planners who know current policies and how strategies could potentially roll-out on the ground, and a working group of members of the public. These participants helped to build the scenarios and assess their acceptability.
Flanders and his colleagues have begun to show these visualizations to city planners and engineers, local elected officials, and members of the community. He notes that “many individuals seeing the images for the first time had a very emotional response.”
The work borrows from international precedents, but CALP is unique in combining visualization, stakeholder input, and evaluation of results comprehensively in the Delta study.
“Other communities around the globe could gain insight from this on how to address their own local concerns, whether it’s sea level rise, forest fire risk, changing snow pack, or other issues.”
CONTACT:
David Flanders
Research Scientist, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning
Adjunct Faculty, School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture
Tel: 604.328.3448
Email: david.flanders@ubc.ca
Heather Amos
UBC Public Affairs
Cell: 604.828.3867
Email: heather.amos@ubc.ca
Simulated images are available by contacting Heather Amos at heather.amos@ubc.ca or 604.828.3867 (cell) and will be available for download Sunday, Feb. 19 at 1 p.m at: http://www.aaas.ubc.ca/media-resources/photos/
Photos of Flanders are available at: http://www.aaas.ubc.ca/media-resources/photos/. A video of Flanders is available at http://www.aaas.ubc.ca/media-resources/videos/ ]
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OK let’s review this statement:
“…expecting the sea-level to rise by 1.2 metres by 2100 – a change that would affect a number of waterfront homes, inland suburban developments, roads and farmland. ”
Current rate of sea level rise is 3 mm per year, as has been shown repeatedly, there’s no evidence of acceleration.
This is supported by tide gauge data, for example:
Battery Park tide gauge from NOAA:
Let’s do the math for British Columbia.
Sea level rise is 3.0 millimeters per year, per TOPEX satellite data. We have 88 years left to 2100.
88 years x 3 mm/year = 264 mm or .264 meter
1.2 meters – .264 meters = 0.936 difference, almost a whole meter.
The press release and study is simply more of this silliness without paying attention to reality:
Freaking out about NYC sea level rise is easy to do when you don’t pay attention to history
Read the whole story to see how badly these predictions fail under the slightest scrutiny
Paul Vaughan, CTV and the Globe and Mail are Thomson Reuters owned… and Sir Crispin Tickell of climategate fame is a trustee of the Woodbridge Company, investment arm of the Thomson Reuters Foundation… So anything alarmist is their bread and butter.
The funny part regarding the Weaver paper is that he used to be THE official go to IPCC climatologist in Canada, especially for the Globe and Mail… and yet now according to the nature of readers comments, the green crowd is not enjoying this study at all…
Are they going to dig some dirt on him now? LOL
From the Vancouver Sun article by Scott Simpson:
“Doing nothing is not an option at all,” Flanders said, adding that he expects the municipality to adopt a mix of options in lieu of a single solution.”
LOL, of course doing nothing would mean NO consulting contracts on top of the UBC salary…
“SFU’s Clague said the sea level may be changing more rapidly than it has in several thousand years, and its historic stability has given people around the world the mistaken impression that it’s not prone to dramatic change.”
Clague is not GSC, my mistake. He is SFU, the same outfit than O surprise, Mark Jaccard of BC Carbon Tax fame! Unless the journalist is misattributing him, he should be ashamed of making such false statement. Tides Gauge in Vancouver and the latest ENVISAT CNES/ESA/LEGOS/CLS is showing NO acceleration and at 0.752 mm/y prove him wrong.
Postmedia is truly becoming as much a shill as Globemedia.
Tonight’s news broadcast, about the rising sea levels. Clague and Flanders make the sales pitch.
(1:39 mins)
Protecting BC coastline from rising tides
Mon, Feb 20 – Some of the world’s top scientists are warning that sea levels could rise faster than first believed.
http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/protecting+bc+coastline+from+rising+tides/video.html?v=2199545424#stories/video
Do they assume that people don’t realize that living next to a river or on the coast has problems or don’t they, themselves, realize this. The “elevated first floor” that is seen as some portent was common along the Mississippi River near New Orleans prior to levees and is somewhat common on the bayous. If you didn’t, you flooded. Beach houses built along the North Carolina coast (and elsewhere, I presume) had elevated first stories to handle rising water and storms. Many houses have been built without this along the coast. Some relatives got flooded out this year in a hurricane. They did what they have done for decades: all the valuable papers were moved inland before the storm came and the house was cleaned and restored after the storm. No whining about global warming and rising seas.
I find it hard to believe that anyone regards as creditable research saying that if you live near rivers and oceans that you may have problems with storms and water. Sort of states the obvious.
@TomRude
Do you know why ~1924-1940 data are missing? This could be QUITE important – not about politics, but rather about natural variation — thanks if you have ANY info on this.
“He notes that “many individuals seeing the images for the first time had a very emotional response.””
I think that’s a key phrase to note. It’s not about the science. It’s not about reason and thoughtful contemplation. It’s about emotion. Rather telling.
The most terrified rule in the world is the ‘Rule of three’. An example: “One climate scientist needs four hours for the New York City Marathon. Question: How long need three climate scientists?”
OK. This is not a case for the ‘Rule of Three’. But because some people talk about school children and a suggested deny bias of the WUWT community, here is one of the ‘terrified’ logic on the level of school children:
Question: What is the increase of the sea level h in 102 years in [mm]?
Rule of three
1. The increasing quotient a of the global temperature (hadcrut3) from 1900 AD to 2002 AD is (0.6757° Cel. / 102) a = 0.006625° Cel. per year.
2. The relevant world sea water volume increase for about 1000 m deepness is ~23 mm per 0.1 ° Cel. (@ur momisugly 19° Cel.) from the property of water.
3. The increase of the sea level h in 102 years is (0.006625° Cel. * 102 y * 23 mm / 0.1° Cel.) = 155.4 mm.
Check: Mean sea level increasing (1900-2002) from San Francisco is 1.47 mm per year or 149.9 mm for the whole time interval.
V.
From the press release and picture captions, total usage of “dike”, singular or plural:
5 times.
Total usage of “dyke”, singular or plural:
One time only.
“Historically, the municipality has used dykes to protect the land from flooding and tides – a common strategy used by coastal communities.”
Given the rarity and the context of that spelling, would it be childish and immature of me to suggest there was some Freudian slippage involving a certain common slang meaning of that particular spelling?
I sure hope so, I’d hate to think I got too old and stuffy to give that a deserving smirk. 😉
I do not sorry.
SAVE DELTA, BC! Divert all the funding for so-called “climate science” to raising Delta, BC above the climate modelers’ maximum sea level guesses until further notice!
Delta will probably look a little “odd” perched up there on the cliff overlooking the Pacific, but, that’s not important compared to saving the people and the landscaping contractors!
As climate science will starve, not only will Delta be saved from the 100 meter tsunami sure to come in the next 50,000 years, but all this useless NOISE will stop and we can all have some peace!
Robert, I have nothing but admiration for the courage of the Dutch, and was fortunate to be able to tour the Oosterscheldekering just after its completion. However, as I stated above, and the residents of the Netherlands know only too well, Mother Nature has a long, successful track record of overcoming man’s attempts to thwart her.
British Columbia’s coasts are more likely to be affected by tectonic activity.
Japanese quake an ominous portent for B.C. coast ‘megaquake’
http://www.theprovince.com/story_print.html?id=6185483&sponsor=
PSMSL’s site has much information on their data, such as http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/.
There is a conference in London UK in late March in which PSMSL is participating to some extent, they refer to this session: http://www.planetunderpressure2012.net/session_woodworth.asp.
That web site refers to Rio+20, a “sustainable development” conference. “Sustainable development” is green facism, based on a negative view of humans leading to a presumption that humans cannot conserve nor develop substitutes – a notion rebutted in books like The Doomsday Myth, which chronicles cases of predicted shortages that did not occur, even in the face of government force .(Like Brazil’s attempt to prevent export of rubber plants to limit use of an uncontrolled resource – plants were just growing in the jungle, which failed. Some plants were exported, and people farmed rubber in SE Asia.)
Background on Delta B.C.
Obviously named for the delta of the large Fraser River, part of it and south Surrey is low due that and a small river or two flowing into Mud Bay/Boundary Bay, part of both are high ground. (The community of Tsawassen
In the low community of Ladner, as in the similar city of Richmond to the north across an arm of the Fraser, dykes and pumping systems are standard. In recent decades both have been improved, Circa the 1980s Ladner went from a 1 in 10 years probability of flooded streets to something like 1 in 50, I don’t know if what it is today. I think Richmond spent money to ensure redundancy of pumps.
I’ve seen winter high water on the other side of the dyke there, a sobering realization. “Nature to be commanded must be obeyed.” said Francis Bacon, oft repeated by Ayn Rand.
Most of the “Fraser River Valley” to beyond Chilliwack is flood prone, some years farmland and a bit of housing.gets flooded. Dykes are slowly being improved.
As for a specific Dutch connection, there’s a reclaimed area near Chilliwack, through which the “Vedder Canal” flows. And immigrants from Holland also settled in the area of Lynden WA, geographically similar but not close to the big river.
The whole system could be improved for general reasons, not for sea level rise that is not happening at anything more than a very very slow rate. Build or buy in lowland, as I have in the past, and you put yourself at risk
…. Keith, living in earthquake country close to the ocean. 😉
@ur momisugly Cam-S:
Indeed as I mentioned in my first post, Sheppard is also behind this fearmongering… When Clague is claiming 3mm/y as a “low ball estimate”, he is simply lying through his teeth.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/products-images/index.html
Envisat the latest satellite is at 0.752mm/y… notice how when chosing all missions, envisat’s curve is in yellow, barely visible… One wonders if they will try to calibrate envisat onto Jason to get rid of the problem, you know some correction well buried in the code…
As for the SFU, UBC activists, these guys have found a way to get consulting fees from taxpayers through fearmongering uneducated politicians, through the stealth lobbying of green councilors, who suddenly panic about the whole affair. It’s bonanza for builders and developers as well since public money is going to be spent to redevelop huge areas.
This is a scam. Check images of Vancouver Stanley Park 100 years ago and now…
@ur momisugly Cam-S
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/products-images/index.html
Envisat 0.752 mm/y not the 3mm/y low ball BS by Clague! Notice how Envisat’s curve is barely readable in yellow when plotting all missions… inconvenient… They may even try to bury some new algorythm to get rid of the inconvenient data…
Saw the Global TV coverage… As guessed in my first post, Sheppard is in the mix…
These guys figured out a way to get consulting fees and who knows perhaps developers subsidies for their departments by frightening uneducated politicians -I have seen the Bull Sheppard spreads- through lobbying by stealth green councilors to divert taxpayers money towards developers and juicy contracts. Meanwhile any storm will provide the “we told you so” forgetting about the history of their own cities…
Check photos from Vancouver 100 years ago…
This is a scam.
Whoopee – so there’s no perfect solution. What an earth shattering conclusion. 2 more things. This publication confuses the “is it happening?” with the “what will happen if it happens?”. Of course, to justify all his work he has to believe it will happen. Secondly, it shows how silly it is to allow any form of development at or near sea level regardless of climate change, tectonic activity, etc
I’m betting on the big one to hit the Lower Mainland first. Hopefully not while I’m visiting.
Climate modelling. Nice work if you can write a good grant application.