UPDATE: 1/15/2012 11:30AM PST The probe is down, but see how the BBC fouled up the reporting of it here -Anthony
Look up in the air, it’s a bird, its a plane, no it’s Phobos-Grunt! Video follows.
From Sky News: An out of control Russian spacecraft could crash land on southern England sometime this weekend, scientists have warned.
The minibus-sized Phobos Grunt is loaded with 11 tonnes of fuel that was supposed to take it to Mars and one of its moons.
But the on-board computer failed shortly after take-off last November and the spacecraft’s orbit of the Earth has been getting lower ever since.
Chief engineer at the UK Space Agency Professor Richard Crowther said it is expected to explode as it enters the atmosphere, scattering debris along a 200km track – anywhere between the M4 corridor and the Falkland Islands.
But he told Sky News that fragments are most likely to fall into the sea: “If you look at the Earth from space, most of it is covered by water.
“The UK is very small by comparison. The probability of it falling in such a small area is very, very low.
“It doesn’t keep me awake at night.”
The Russian space agency Roscosmos estimates that between 20 and 30 fragments, weighing 200kg in total, will make it back to the Earth’s surface.
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It doesn’t look good:
Image from heavens-above.com
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Eduardo Ferreyra says: the real name of the so called Falklands Islands is Islas Malvinas.
Sorry, Eduardo, the real name is the Falklands. At least until the Argentines take it back but, I wouldn’t hold my breath. 😉
LearDog says:
one has to keep in mind that specific components of this craft were DESIGNED to survive re-entry into the atmosphere…
Why would they want to do that? The only atmosphere the designers could have considered entering would be that of Mars. Which is considerably less dense than that of Earth.
The orbit is at a 51 degree angle to the equator, which is why a twenty minute or so change in reentry time could put it over the UK instead of the Falklands on that particular orbital track.
Here’s a link to the Heavens Above page that updates with the latest orbital elements (every few hours), showing the current orbit, position, apogee, perigee, etc. Currently, it’s at 136 km (84 miles) for the perigee, 157 km (97 miles) for apogee.
http://heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=37872&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET
This is, so far as I can tell, absolutely unprecedented in the space age; the thermosphere must be heavily contracted for this to be possible. (it’s in the thermosphere, but the density of the thermosphere varies with solar activity. If, as some think, we’re nearing solar max for the current cycle, one would expect the thermosphere to be far denser at lower orbital altitudes than it is. In other words, we’re seeing proof that this solar cycle is a low one.
Finally, regarding the Falklands; I’ve been there, and love the place. Wonderful people, who are still living with active minefields and other after-effects of the Argentina’s attempted conquest, plus the fear that they will be attacked again.
I got a chuckle from the post claiming that the old Spanish name is the correct one, due to what the French called the islands in the 15th century. That was risible on so many levels. First off, the 15th century means 1400-1499, and the first voyage of Columbus was in 1492. So, what did the French call the Falklands in the 15th century? Nothing, as they were unseen and undiscovered until the 16th century.
Second point; since when does the 15th or 16th century name for a place dictate the correct name? By that logic, most of our maps for everywhere are wrong, and to name one example, Argentina is the wrong name for that particular country. So, that basis for saying the Spanish name is the correct one for the Falklands is just as valid as the rest of the Argentine “claim” to the islands: pathetic and utter bunk, with no basis in either logic or history.
If it hits the Falklands then it’s the Malvinas OK?
Eduardo Ferreyra says:
January 14, 2012 at 6:22 pm
And the real name of the so called Falklands Islands is Islas Malvinas, as they were named “Malouines” by French whalers from Saint Malo in the 15th Century…
Garethmanmresponds
Living in a country used a as unit of measurement we have one useful rule in deciding what a countries name is. And that is, what do the residents of the country call it? If they call it Malouines or Falklands or Las Malvinas that is their choice and we should all respect that. By the way Wales is also generally known as Cymru by Welsh speakers, It is never known as England. Perhaps we will all have a view of this descending spacecraft which may give us a bit of insight that we are all living on the same planet and are part of one human community.
And all because Spain and Portugal had divided the world up between them… 🙂
Argentinia went to war over the islands as a distraction from their own domestic problems, as did Maggie when she retaliated as a distraction for her own, she won the next election on the strength of it.
How the Spanish claimed control:
“@Katabasis: Yes, that is how inexact the prediction is, they cant even pick which hemisphere it will land in. Do you get that?”
– I guess it’s me being mystified (yet again) at the sloppy nature of journalism in this case. Mentioning both the M4 corridor and the Falklands seems like an immensely crappy attempt to tie it in primarily to the UK despite the fact that the potential area it could fall into is huge and the landmasses in question very small in relation.
– It’s also amusing given how many fewer factors there must be at work here in projecting its final trajectory than there are for predicting the climate that the potential range of outcomes is so huge and uncertain.
At http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/Misc/PhobosGrunt3.php and http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/Misc/PhobosGrunt4.php estimates made today have Phobos-Grunt reeentering around 18-19 hrs. UTC on its 1097 orbit.
Mark says: January 15, 2012 at 12:45 am
Why would they want to do that? The only atmosphere the designers could have considered entering would be that of Mars. Which is considerably less dense than that of Earth.
It was suppose to land on Mars’ satellite Phobos (no atmosphere), pick up some samples and return those to the Earth, hence important to survive the Earth’s atmosphere re-entry.
View of Phobos-Grunt
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/01/14/article-2085869-0F747F3B00000578-214_634x564.jpg
At least the albedo has increased thanks to the orbiters. I guess that there will be some global warming to come from this one falling down?
I haven’t checked the zarya,info pages, look good, but here’s a newsy story.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/russian-space-probe-crash-earth-hours-15364707#.TxLWvW9SQsI
Roscosmos said the unmanned Phobos-Ground will crash between 1641 and 2105 GMT (11:41 a.m. and 4:05 p.m. EST). It could crash anywhere along the route of its next few orbits, which would include Europe, southeast Asia, Australia and South America. The U.S., Canada and much of Russia are outside the risk zone.
At 13.5 metric tons (14.9 tons), the Phobos-Ground is one of the heaviest pieces of space junk ever to fall on Earth, and one of the most toxic too. The bulk of its weight is a load of 11 metric tons (12 tons) of highly toxic rocket fuel intended for the long journey to the Martian moon of Phobos. It has been left unused as the probe got stuck in orbit around Earth shortly after its Nov. 9 launch.
Roscosmos predicts that only between 20 and 30 fragments of the Phobos probe with a total weight of up to 200 kilograms (440 pounds) will survive the re-entry and plummet to Earth. It said all of the fuel will burn up entirely in the atmosphere.
The probe’s fuel tanks are made of aluminum alloy and should melt early on re-entry, backing up the official assurances. If the fuel indeed burns on re-entry, the probe’s dry weight of 2.5 metric tons (2.75 tons) puts it firmly in the league of the ordinary.
Katabasis says:
January 14, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Except for the degenerate cases of an equatorial orbit and especially geosynchronous orbit, satellites visit both hemispheres on each orbit. The orbital plane has to go through the center of the Earth.
MattN says:
January 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm
More than that, I should think. 100 degrees of latitude, so 6000 nautical miles, add to that the longitude difference, it’s a ways.
I keep forgetting what Low Earth orbital speed is, but remember the circumference of Earth is about 24,000 miles and the period is 90 minutes, so 18,000 statute mph. If the reentry prediction time has a +/- 30 minute error, that gives a 60 minute window, so reentry will be anywhere along an 18,000 mile path.
Both of you (and anyone else), check out http://www.zarya.info/images/PhobosGruntReentry3.jpg – it will likely change frequently, but it’s a good map now showing that if it goes over the Falklands, it will take several orbits before it goes over England. I thought that might be the case, but didn’t have time for more than a top of the head response. So it appears the M4 to Falklands estimate was really just to give the range of latitudes where the satellite could fall in the UK and absolutely nothing to do with a specific prediction.
In my head I’ve been singing ‘ Decay of Phobos Grunt’ to the tune of ‘the Days of Pearly Spencer’, although it is missing one syllable.
Ric Werme says:
January 14, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Quote “.. maybe subsequent comments. snip [from]… an amateur astrologer tumbling over France:” ‘200km …Midland, Texas,…French Falklands, discovered in some other century with Roman numerals.’ Amateur astrologer tumbling! New candidate for Olympic Games.
Thank You, Ric: you started my day with nose-blown cereal and milk!
John R T
Matthew W says:
January 14, 2012 at 11:51 am
Amazing that with the “stuff” that has fallen out of orbit, that it hasn’t hit a major city
—-I sincerely hope you said that with your fingers firmly crossed and hanging on to the nearest bit of wood, Matthew W! Don’t tempt the gods, it’s too dangerous!
The “Mars Monster” strikes again!
It is so very reassuring that the Obama Administration has made the United States dependent on Russia for sending our astronauts into space. (Sarc)
Interested readers might like to monitor the SeeSat Mail List Archives at http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/index.html (mantained by Ted Molczan).
The Compilation of Phobos-Grunt Decay Estimates v12 is at http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/0179.html (as of 2012 Jan 15 12:52 UTC).
Latest estimate by Ted Molczan: 2012 Jan 15 20:07 UTC, uncertainty 2.15 hrs.
Failure in Russian high tech workmanship? Who would ever believe it.
John R T says:
January 15, 2012 at 6:30 am
Oh good, you picked up on the tumbling abiguity.
When you finish your coffee, check out my http://wermenh.com/deimos.html about the Olympic Leaps on Deimos at the annual Martian Festival. Sorry, no gymnastics, it’s all track and field. Thanks for the segue!
It is headed for the Falklands, I suspect Argentina.
It’s the ‘Falklands’ – and it ALWAYS will be. We spilt blood over those islands and no one here is going to forget it. As long as the islanders want to be protected by the Britain then so be it. Argentina has no claim to the islands at all, not even a little bit. The Falklands were inhabited by British people before ‘Argentina’ existed as an idependent nation! If you take the bizarre view that any island close to a country belongs to THAT country then we start entering a fantasy world, like Hawaii belonging to Mexico, not the US, and Corsica belonging to Italy, not France, amongst MANY others. The Falklands are 500 kilometres away from Argentina, so if we start down this silly route then Japan belongs to South Korea and Russia, Ireland belongs to Britain, Iceland belongs to Greenland, and New Zealand belongs to Australia. Small islands have a right to exist in peace without being threatened by a country that cannot even get its own affairs in order.
MattN says: January 14, 2012 at 3:58 pm
This is a correct statement. The space agencies cannot determine when the spacecraft will reenter the atmosphere. Now just to a small degree, but to a large degree. They will be lucky to be able to determine to within 2500 miles the impact point. In fact, they might not even get the actual orbit of reentry correct. And this is using our “established and settled science” of orbital mechanics!
Not to denigrate the orbital mechanics scientists and engineers, it’s just that small variations in the density of the upper atmosphere during reentry, can have major effects to the trajectory of an uncontrolled deorbiting object that is subject to an uncontrolled breakup/disintegration with possible uncontrolled explosions. As you can tell, there are a lot of unconstrained variables to account for in this “simple” deorbiting problem.
Plenty of posts here rubbishing Russian workmanship, but it’s hardly a uniquely Russian trait to have this sort of failure. Remind me why Skylab had a bit of foil lashed up on it’s back, why Columbia put on a tragic shooting star demonstration, how about the mars rover that’s gotten bogged.
There is a reason why we all sarcastically remark that simple tasks are ‘not rocket science’, credit where it’s due, at least they’re having a go.
What has ESA attempted lately?
I figured it wouldn’t be long before some jumped up git with a cahone insecurity would start harping about the Falklands, simple question; when will you pitiful little twats give it up?
The Falklands never belonged to Argentina; the River Plate Colonies breifly established a penal colony on the Falkalnds, some time after the British had claimed the islands. Not that even that matters; possession is 9/10ths of the law and the Falkland Islands have been part of Great Britain for well over a century. Why not put it to a referendum in the Falklands? Who do you wish to oversea your governance?
1: The Kingdm of Great Britain (who all of the free world have used a model for governance, justice and human rights – even if old Blighty has recently lost the plot over gullible warming ),
2: No one, it’s time for Independence, or,
13: A half arsed shitpot 3rd world dump in receivership; whose only claims to fame are the Guerra Sucia’s 13,000 dissappeared and a pitiful attempt to invade a relatively close, more or less undefended British territory but subsequently being shown the door and escorted from the premises by a numerically inferior force of professional soldiers without enough ammunition.
No brainer really; so take your indignant whining and jam it. The Falklands are the Falklands and will be as long as the Kelpers are happy with the name and completely regardless of sad, whining latin speaking gits with no right to an opinion on the matter.