UPDATE: 1/15/2012 11:30AM PST The probe is down, but see how the BBC fouled up the reporting of it here -Anthony
Look up in the air, it’s a bird, its a plane, no it’s Phobos-Grunt! Video follows.
From Sky News: An out of control Russian spacecraft could crash land on southern England sometime this weekend, scientists have warned.
The minibus-sized Phobos Grunt is loaded with 11 tonnes of fuel that was supposed to take it to Mars and one of its moons.
But the on-board computer failed shortly after take-off last November and the spacecraft’s orbit of the Earth has been getting lower ever since.
Chief engineer at the UK Space Agency Professor Richard Crowther said it is expected to explode as it enters the atmosphere, scattering debris along a 200km track – anywhere between the M4 corridor and the Falkland Islands.
But he told Sky News that fragments are most likely to fall into the sea: “If you look at the Earth from space, most of it is covered by water.
“The UK is very small by comparison. The probability of it falling in such a small area is very, very low.
“It doesn’t keep me awake at night.”
The Russian space agency Roscosmos estimates that between 20 and 30 fragments, weighing 200kg in total, will make it back to the Earth’s surface.
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It doesn’t look good:
Image from heavens-above.com
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Duck
Rur roh….
The question I have is not so much about the debris – but the 7 tons of hydrazine on board….in aluminum container. I’m thinking ‘explosion’ – but can that occur in the upper reaches of the atmosphere?
Further – one has to keep in mind that specific components of this craft were DESIGNED to survive re-entry into the atmosphere…. They’re going to land – its merely a question of where….
Should be renamed “Grunt-o-Phobia”. Simple enough.
But you can never be too careful though. Give me a $100 MM grant and I will develop a model for where it will hit based on tree rings from Siberia. Predictive? Nah. Lucrative, you betcha. So what if my paper will come long after the thing has hit. Think of our children and grandchildren. Or at least think of mine. I could leave them a lot of taxpayer money with that kind of grant.
Amazing that with the “stuff” that has fallen out of orbit, that it hasn’t hit a major city.
I’ve been tracking this thing for a couple of hours.
At time of posting 90 miles up, 17,500 mph over Peru.
Matthew W says:
January 14, 2012 at 11:51 am
Amazing that with the “stuff” that has fallen out of orbit, that it hasn’t hit a major city.
Honestly, it’s really not.
Bugger, I just painted our Southampton (England) House… 🙂
Matthew W.: Here is a map of USA “urban areas”… that is, all densely-populated (>1,000 people per square mile) areas with population of more than 10,000. Notice how little of the nation is taken up by urban areas, much less large cities. In the rest of the world’s land area the situation is similar, if not even less urbanized.
‘A major city’ be blowed.
The House of Commons?
Now you’re talking. Fingers crossed……
Too bad it failed. It sounds like it would have been a very intersting mission.
IF one of the hydrazine canisters survives reentry and hits a populated area… they is going to have some explaining to do…
its always amazed me that they do not keep a self destruct system operational on a redundant system to minimize such a problem…
Matthew: Did you all of a sudden forget that it must have an EF rating to have enough “bad luck” to hit a major city?
Duck and Cover
“The UK is very small by comparison. The probability of it falling in such a small area is very, very low.”
Famous last words: “They couldn’t hit an elephant at this r….”
“Gruntmobiles” are notoriously chunky vehicles.
To give some idea of speed it’s, at time of posting, now over the northern tip of the Caspian Sea
at 103 miles up (yes, it’s gained height) 17,465 mph.
Shows it’s really getting knocked about up there !
It’s a pity. All that wonderful technology, all those great tools. Who will join me in saluting a star mangled spanner?
I am reminded of a bit of sci-fi I read a decade or so ago, where a nuclear-powered satellite was due to fall to Earth (pretty sure it was an anti-nuclear writer). One of Great Britain’s newspapers (in the book) shows a picture of England, with a target ring over one of its cities. This, of course, causes all kinds of howling from the people living in said city.
Later, the satellite comes down, and Explodes- right in the heart of said city.
Hold onto your seats over there.
It’s been nice to know you guys. Goodbye.
…CRASH!
Bill H says (January 14, 2012 at 12:24 pm)
“its always amazed me that they do not keep a self destruct system operational on a redundant system to minimize such a problem…”
Good idea, but if there’s an explosion in orbit, it will produce thousands of pieces of shrapnel. The Space Station is already having to duck and weave it’s way through orbit to avoid bits of junk. The Chinese created a nightmare cloud of lethal bits when they blew up a satellite with an ICBM 5 years ago.
The only safe way of disposing of redundant space systems is to do a controlled de-orbit. This needs a rocket motor. Which, unfortunately on Phobos-Grunt, is exactly the thing that doesn’t work!
simply SMASHING…. 🙂
cui bono says:
January 14, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Shrapnel is one thing but bus sized derbies is quite another..
Maybe it’s time for a smaller rocket that can attach and push it from orbit? expressive? Yes.. or we could just use our shuttles as garbage trucks… I’m sure there is a market for collecting space junk..
Love the painting. Straight out of a 1960’s sci-fi magazine cover.