Quote of the Week – the climbdown on methane and climate change

There’s been a lot of worry-buzz in the usual circles over methane plumes bubbling up in the Arctic related to this NSF press release:

Press Release 10-036

Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated

Thawing by climate change of subsea layer of permafrost may release stores of underlying, seabed methane

Illustration showing leakage of methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

The permafrost of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (an area of about 2 million kilometers squared) is more porous than previously thought. The ocean on top of it and the heat from the mantle below it warm it and make it perforated like Swiss cheese. This allows methane gas stored under it under pressure to burst into the atmosphere. The amount leaking from this locale is comparable to all the methane from the rest of the world’s oceans put together. Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Credit: Zina Deretsky, National Science Foundation

To his credit, Andrew Revkin of the New York Times inquired with the field researchers on the methane bubbles. He writes:

Shakhova and Semiletov, whose earlier analysis of methane in the region was published in Science last year, had been unavailable for comment when I was preparing my piece, as they had gone on vacation shortly after their presentation. When they were back on the grid they got my e-mail inquiries and saw the post. Their response clarifies their differences with other research groups and emphasizes the importance of critically evaluating scientific findings before rushing to conclusions, either alarming or reassuring. One clear message, which I endorse, is the need to sustain the kind of fieldwork they’re doing.

The reply from Semiletov and Shakhova is enlightening and is the QOTW:

We would first note that we have never stated that the reason for the currently observed methane emissions were due to recent climate change.

In fact, we explained in detail the mechanism of subsea permafrost destabilization as a result of inundation with seawater thousands of years ago.

We have been working in this scientific field and this region for a decade. We understand its complexity more than anyone.  And like most scientists in our field, we have to deal with slowly improving understanding of ongoing processes that often incorporates different points of views expressed by different groups of researchers.

Do you think Joltin Joe Romm, who agreed with the story by Gillis (but panned Revkin’s story then) before the clarification…

Carbon Time Bomb in the Arctic: New York Times Print Edition Gets the Story Right

Writing:

The NYT would seem to be schizophrenic on this crucial topic, but Gillis clearly has the story right and it isn’t reassuring at all.

…will carry now this clarification? It seems schizophrenic interpretations my not be NYT’s fault at all, especially since the field researchers have clarified on record that they don’t see “climate change” to be involved at all.

Don’t hold your breath.

Kudos to Andrew Revkin for doing actual journalism and going straight to the source.

Of course the bigger problem than Joltin Joe Romm are the non thinking serial media and blog regurgitators. Perhaps WUWT readers can advise them of the correction.

‘Fountains’ of methane 1000m across erupt from Arctic ice – a greenhouse gas

Daily Mail – ‎Dec 13, 2011‎
The Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted a survey of 10000 square miles of sea off the coast of eastern Siberia. They made a terrifying discovery – huge plumes of methane bubbles rising to the surface from the seabed.

Rapid rise in Arctic methane shocks scientists

New Zealand Herald – ‎Dec 13, 2011‎
By Steve Connor Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.

Scientists Discover Giant Methane Plume in Arctic Ocean

Kozmedia News – ‎Dec 15, 2011‎
By Robert Williams on Dec 15, 2011 | Filed Under Science | 0 comments Russian scientists have discovered hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1000 meters in diameter, bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Scientists are concerned that as the

Scientists worry about giant plumes of methane in Arctic Ocean

DigitalJournal.com – ‎Dec 14, 2011‎
By JohnThomas Didymus By JohnThomas Didymus. Scientists are worried about methane bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The thawing of the Arctic as temperatures rise is releasing methane in the seabed. Scientists say high levels of the gas in

Giant plumes of methane bubbling to surface of Arctic Ocean

Updated News – ‎Dec 14, 2011‎
Russian scientists have discovered hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1000 meters in diameter, bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic Shelf recedes, the unprecedented levels of gas released could

Chilling discovery: Arctic ice releases deadly greenhouse gas

People’s World – ‎Dec 14, 2011‎
Methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, has been found by scientists in deadly, bubbling plumes on the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The scientists, who were undertaking an extensive survey of the area, were utterly

Where am I? > Home > Climate > Vast Stores of Methane Are Rel…

Environmental News Network – ‎Dec 14, 2011‎
Deep under the icy waters of the Arctic, Russian scientists have discovered vast stores of methane, the potent greenhouse gas, far worse than CO2. The scientists sampled the waters along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and discovered that the methane

Methane in the Arctic: The end of the world, or what?

Grist Magazine – ‎Dec 14, 2011‎
by Christopher Mims The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

Unprecedented Methane Plumes Bubbling in The Arctic

SustainableBusiness.com – ‎Dec 15, 2011‎
Dramatic, unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – are bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean near Russia, reports UK’s The Independent. Scientists who have been studying the area for nearly 20

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Update: In case you are wondering what CH4 concentration in the atmosphere looks like, here’s the latest data from NOAA:

The Y axis is Parts Per Billion (PPB) Plot visualizer here. Data here. I noted back in 2006 that CH4 had stabilized, now it is slightly rising again.

Bill Illis in comments adds the Barrow, AK monitoring site in the “permafrost zone … and it is right next to the frozen permafrost/frozen methane beds of the high Arctic.”  and notes it is “pretty well flat right now”.

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LazyTeenager
December 27, 2011 7:07 pm

DirkH says
Ow. Mister Expert System Analyst is here again.
———–
Senior Checkout Chick actually. Its amazing what you pick up from talking to the customers. But thanks for the compliment.

Bill Illis
December 27, 2011 7:27 pm

Lazyteenager,
The science was always based on Methane levels stabilizing at some point, mostly because of its short life-time in the atmosphere.
The earlier estimates had it stabilizing at about 2400 ppb, I haven’t looked but the IPCC AR5 will certainly use a lower number now. You can probably find it here.
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/
It appears certain that Methane will stabilize at below 1950 ppb.

Bob Shapiro
December 27, 2011 7:42 pm

“The permafrost of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (an area of about 2 million kilometers squared)…”
I think you mean 2 million square kilometers. As written, that’s several thousand times all the surface of the earth, oceans and all.

Rhoda Ramirez
December 27, 2011 8:13 pm

I’m getting the feeling that this is like the ozone hole nonsense: Do these plumes represent something new that is happening or something that we’ve just recently be studying? Does ice/snow hinder methan movement? Those ice shelves argue that methane can outgas at deep pressures so how is surface ice going to stop it’s outgassing?

December 27, 2011 10:24 pm

Josualdo says:
December 27, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Bill Illis says: December 27, 2011 at 1:59 pm: Methane levels are not increasing. CO2 is going up, but Methane is not.
Mauna Loa and CSIRO say yes, just a little.
==================================
CSIRO can only detect it because it is so close to the BS emitted by all of our federal government shills in Canberra.

December 27, 2011 11:52 pm

Does anyone have a copy of the Shakhova and Semiletov paper? It’s behind a paywall and I would be grateful for a link to check out exactly what they do say about their hypothesis of 1000yr old inflow of water.

December 28, 2011 12:59 am

it looks like LT is really very lazy. The fact is that there is no single answer regarding the formation of diamonds.
A quick Google search brought up some interesting information. One paper from Adelaide University challenges what I was taught a very long time ago about the formation of diamonds. The claims in that particular paper seem to be a bit thin.
However, let’s look at the fact that diamonds are made of carbon. This is a truth.
The common element for coal, diamonds oil and even natural gas is carbon!!
As for the point about viability of extracting the natural gas, when you have an oilfield strike like the one in the Gulf of Mexico, or even Westernport Bay for that matter, or the NorthWest Shelf off the coast of West Australia, the extraction of the methane in the form of natural gas should be a no brainer.

December 28, 2011 1:00 am

, you are not wrong. There is a lot of hot air that is emitted here in Canberra!! The methane that is emitted from on the hill is so bad that the weather has been quite cold!!!!

Joel Heinrich
December 28, 2011 1:59 am

Here, for those of you interested in a more global view:
http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg/products/summary/sum35/15_plate2_ch4.pdf
from http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg/
So, yes, while we had the warmest decade EVAH!, the concentration was actually decreasing.

Khwarizmi
December 28, 2011 2:19 am

Methane is apparently produced in the oceans by vast hordes of hypothetical microbes that may be hiding deep within the sediments. I didn’t make that up…
===
Below the seafloor, an unknown but potentially vast biosphere of microbes may be making the methane that percolates upward.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12764&tid=282&cid=2441
===.
There are also vast hordes of spectacularly real microbes that consume most of that odorless gas. For both varieties of microbes, the real and the surreal hordes, we should be grateful to Gaia, the blessed mother of Titan.

chuck nolan
December 28, 2011 6:44 am

Theo Goodwin says:
December 27, 2011 at 4:52 pm
“The reply from Semiletov and Shakhova is enlightening and is the QOTW:

I nominate this “Quote of the Week” as best ever “Quote of the Week.
—————
I agree it’s beyond the level of your standard run of the mill QOTW and even beyond “Quote of the Month”(QOTM).
Therefore, I recommend Anthony add this to the contenders for Quote of the Year (QOTY).

December 28, 2011 8:52 am

Raise your hand if you didn’t think this degassing didn’t happen during every interglacial period using the same process.

Myrrh
December 28, 2011 10:32 am

Mike the convict says:
December 27, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Also has anyone done any research on the amount of methane consumed by lighting?
Are you thinking of Catatumbo here, the cloud to cloud lightening? http://matthew-miller.suite101.com/the-worlds-largest-lightning-storm-a148124
There’s been very little research done on this phenomenon at all, but certainly a good place to investigate methane feeding lightening. What I find fascinating is the regularity of it, it disappears for a few months at the beginning of the year and then comes back. If you do any searches on it be aware there’s someone called Quiroga an over-excited environmentalist who’s been playing on the theme the ‘lightening has ‘disappeared’, shock horror, but it always does around jan-march and others are pissed off that reporters ignored that bit –

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/world_of_wonders/2011/02/an_everlasting_lightning_storm.single.html
“Muñoz believes methane may increase the conductivity of the air over Catatumbo, allowing lightning to recharge faster and fire more frequently. But he cautions that the mystery of Catatumbo hasn’t necessarily been solved, and he implored me to convey his reservations in anything I wrote. He was disappointed by the way the press trumped up the Catatumbo storm’s supposed “disappearance” last year. The lightning always dies down during the dry months of January and February, he said. There was no reason to be concerned—a sentiment he says he communicated to journalists. “We were interviewed, and we showed them we have no scientific evidence that the Catatumbo lightning is disappearing,” says Muñoz.” [“Ángel Muñoz, who leads a team that studies the lightning at the University of Zulia’s Center for Scientific Modeling”]

December 28, 2011 1:22 pm

“Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide.”
It sounds a bit like a CO2 comedown, too. I note that the flattening of methane in atmos coincides with flattening in sea level rise and flattening in global temps over the past dozen years or so.

Steve Garcia
December 28, 2011 2:14 pm

@Mooloo December 27, 2011 at 4:01 pm:

Babsy says:

Two million kilometers squared is one incredibly GINORMOUS area!

Yes it made me chuckle too. Scientific illiterates writing science reports: what could go wrong?
I presume mean 2,000,000 square kilometres is meant. About 0.4% of the earth’s surface.

Ah, but 2,000,000 x 2,000,000 km sq is SO much cooler – like almost EIGHT THOUSAND times the surface area of Earth. Ginormous, indeed! Hey, but what is a misplaced decimal or such, among friends? (hahah – good thing I checked on my calculator – I almost missed a decimal place myself!)

Bill Illis
December 28, 2011 5:24 pm

Anyone interested in Methane levels over the last 800,000 years.
So that we can see if high temperatures in the Arctic will cause a Methane apocalypse.
Nope.
http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/189/methane800k.png
Today, thanks to man’s use of natural gas (which is mostly Methane), CH4 is up to 1900 ppb. In the last interglacial, the Eemian, when temperatures in the Arctic rose to about +4.5C higher than today, Methane only increased to 726 ppb (while the coldest part of the ice ages background level is about 400 ppb).
The highest Methane levels, at about 800 ppb, occured during an ordinary interglacial 300,000 years ago. The long interglacial at 400,000 years ago, when the southern third of Greenland’s glaciers melted out and small trees even grew in the southern interior of Greenland, only got to 725 ppb.
So no soup/catastrophe for you/AGW’ers.
Please copy and post this chart around the net every time this scary scenario gets brought up.

Werner Brozek
December 28, 2011 5:47 pm

“Myrrh says:
December 28, 2011 at 10:32 am
Muñoz believes methane may increase the conductivity of the air over Catatumbo”
This statement definitely requires an explanation. The electronegativity of H is 2.1 and for C it is 2.5. What this basically means is that the attraction for shared electrons is very close so there is only a very slight polarity. However perhaps of greater importance is that the CH4 molecule is tetrahedral so there is an angle of 109 degrees between all H’s and the C. This complete symmetry means the molecule as a whole has no charged ends.

Myrrh
December 29, 2011 4:26 am

Werner Brozek says:
December 28, 2011 at 5:47 pm

Thank you Werner (though it’s all a bit above my paycheck), does the water in the atmosphere have any bearing on it? I ask because the lightening is cloud to cloud.

Tshane3000
December 29, 2011 11:50 am

[snip. Use only one screen name, per site Policy. ~dbs, mod.]

Tshane3000
December 29, 2011 12:21 pm

[snip. Use ONE screen name per site Policy, Mr Mantylis. Also no use of any d-word. And cool the rhetoric. This is a science site, not an anti-Republican site as you appear to take it (and IANAR). So cool your rants or I will begin snipping. ~dbs, mod.]

Bill Illis
December 29, 2011 4:27 pm

Tshane3000 says:
————-
Those are all great points that should be taken into account.

juanslayton
December 29, 2011 4:37 pm

Andrew: I mean if Howard Hughes can ‘extract Manganese nodules’ from the bottom of the sea in the 1970′s…
Don’t know if HH ever actually extracted anything but a soviet submarine (almost). Never know what you come across when you go grubbing about the bottom of the sea… : > )

Mike M
December 29, 2011 4:41 pm

Has anyone published the yearly loss of natural gas from local and high pressure long distance ( 200+ psi) pipelines? There are gas leaks being repaired all the time around these parts (Boston) but I suspect that there are many many more leaks are going by undetected.
There was one leak near where I work along an abandoned RR track that leaked for a half year. Everyone in the neighborhood could smell it, many people reported it to the local gas company and they would come and check the local lines which were fine. It turned out to be a high pressure line and it didn’t get any service until someone called the local fire department, (a city north of Boston) to point out the bubbles coming up through the standing water and ice in early spring. At least six months of leaking before any action … and that was in the middle of a CITY! So there have to be a lot leaking out in rural areas that will never be detected until the pipes completely split or the leak catches on fire.
http://www.naturalgas.org/images/pipeline_map.jpg

Tshane3000: Since global warming denialism is based on mere belief, trust in discredited and/or nonscientific sources, oddly distorted ideas, and cherry-picked facts, it is religion by definition.

I didn’t know people like you still existed! Have you actually pondered the implications of this ‘cherry picked fact’ with respect to your delusion?: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997
You have it 180 degrees backwards. There is no credible empirical data to support the theory that CO2 from humans causes ANY measurable increase in global temperature… NONE! There are mountains of empirical evidence that CO2 has little or no affect on global temperature at all, (such as that Hadley CRU data above showing no significant warming for over a decade). You are the one in denial.

melty
December 29, 2011 4:50 pm

Tshane3000: I think Bill Illis’ post was supposed to be ironic.

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 29, 2011 8:16 pm

Looks to me like we ought to be drilling wells and sucking it up to burn it into a less risky form, CO2, for the good of the planet, of course 😉
BTW, CO2 LIQUID bubbles out of the sea floor at depth and near the mid ocean ridges / volcanoes. How much? No one knows…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/liquid-co2-on-the-ocean-bottom/