Readers may recall last week when I highlighted a press release that said Birds apparently can’t outfly climate change. It seemed ridiculous and there were many questionable claims in that work. Now from Cornell University we have this today:
As climate change sets in, plants and bees keep pace
ITHACA, N.Y. — No laggards, those bees and plants.
As warm temperatures due to climate change encroach winter, bees and plants keep pace.
An analysis of bee collection data over the past 130 years shows that spring arrives about 10 days earlier than in the 1880s, and bees and flowering plants have kept pace by arriving earlier in lock-step. The study also found that most of this shift has occurred since 1970, when the change in mean annual temperature has increased most rapidly, according to Bryan Danforth, Cornell professor of entomology, who co-authored a study published the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Dec. 5, 2011.)
“It’s an illustration of how valuable our natural history collections are at Cornell, even if you don’t know in advance how these collections might be used,” says Danforth. Lead author Ignasi Bartomeus and senior author Rachael Winfree are both entomologists at Rutgers University.
Although the triggers for bee spring emergence are unknown, bees may simply be cued to emerge when temperatures rise above a threshold over a number of days, but “if climate change accelerates the way it is expected to, we don’t know if bees will continue to keep up,” says Danforth.
Co-authors include researchers from the American Museum of Natural History, University of Connecticut, and York University in Canada. Jason Gibbs, a Cornell postdoctoral associate, conducted and supervised a team of undergraduates entering bee data at Cornell.
This research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the American Museum of Natural History.
From 1910 to 1940 in the continental US annual temperatures rose at a trend of 0.45 degF / Decade
From 1970 to 2000 the rise was 0.54 degF / Decade ok, so, lets see if there were any major differences in seasonal temperature changes that might account for a difference in the arrival of Spring (wonder what they used as their definition of arrival of spring, though)
Spring trend:
1910-1940 0.25 degF / Decade
1970-2000 0.52 degF / Decade
Summer trend:
1910-1940 0.66 degF / Decade
1970-2000 0.22 degF / Decade
Fall trend:
1910-1940 0.25 degF / Decade
1970-2000 0.33 degF / Decade
Winter trend:
1910-1940 0.65 degF / Decade
1970-2000 1.16 degF / Decade
So temperatures for the early rise were more evenly divided between the seasons with most of the rise coming about evenly in summer and winter with much less rise in fall and spring.
Temperatures for the later rise come mostly in winter and spring with relatively little rise in summer and fall temperatures. So it makes sense that we would see spring arrive earlier.
Since 2000 we are seeing annual temperatures changing at a rate of -0.70 degF / Decade
Spring -0.82 degF / Decade
Summer -0.14 degF / Decade
Fall 0.60 degF / Decade
Winter -2.70 degF / Decade
Most of the current change is in Winter and Spring with very little change in summer temperatures and warming fall. So I would expect Spring to have begun arriving later the last few years and that matches my experience with my plum trees. They bloom now about a week or two later than they did in the late 1990’s. Winters are getting much colder in the US over the past 10 years, though.
So in reference to my above comment, what people who are more closely tuned to their weather conditions (farmers, gardeners, etc) over MOST of the US (with the exception of the Northeast) should be noticing is:
No great change in Summer high temperatures but “Indian summers” with fall coming later. Colder winters than usual lasting longer with a late spring thaw.
This data could be very regional. I noticed the study comes from Ithaca, NY. The Northeast has been experiencing different weather than the rest of the US due to circulation changes. They have been getting generally milder weather but I don’t know the seasonal distribution of the temperature change, just that the Northeast is bucking the national trend.
I don’t think that the conclusion that birds don’t adapt to climate change is correct. As I noted in an earlier post here was a fall in temperature along the Eastern Seaboard of about 4 deg Fahrenheit between 1950 and 1965, due to changes in the AMO. Checking the individual state records for the Black Capped Chickadee (the MA state bird) as the temperature fell the birds migrated South, Northern state populations fell and they started appearing for the first time in North Carolina. As temperatures picked back up over the past 30 years the original population densities were restored.
It turns out that the population does appear somewhat sensitive to temperature with maximum populations occurring in a relatively narrow temperature range, but that is another story.
I would say migration isn’t taken into account often enough. We have already seen that with other species that have “gone missing” only to appear in a different location with a changed migration pattern. These people perform a census by checking the same places as previous years, note a population change and assume the entire species has undergone that change. Well, maybe not. Or maybe a predator species has increased in the area. A lack of cod in an area, for example, might mean an abundance of bluefish which has scattered the cod.
Everyone knows birds walk when the temperature is above 72F.
Personally wouldnt mind seeing less seagulls.
So would the hood of my car, for that matter.
Crosspatch hits the nail on the head with this comment
‘I would say migration isn’t taken into account often enough. We have already seen that with other species that have “gone missing” only to appear in a different location with a changed migration pattern.”
* * *
Exactly what biologists cant seem to figure out.
Up here in BC, we had a large decline in salmon in the Fraser river one year. People screamed ” It’s Global warming” and started to panic, worrying about about how we destroyed the stocks.
The next year set all-time records as millions of salmon came rushing back, and in greater numbers. ( Insert Star Wars joke here.)
Even after two ” inquiries” they were forced to admit they had no idea why the salmon took the year off.
There is still so much we don’t know about animal behavior and migration patterns.
I don’t remember a lot of national press about the recent salmon runs in Oregon that were the largest ever in recorded history, either. Looks like things are set to go gangbusters for next year’s run, too:
http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/dec/12/big-spring-chinook-run-forecast-columbia-river/
That’s after some exceptional runs this year:
http://news.opb.org//article/cowlitz_silver_salmon_run_could_set_record/
The Atlantic salmon seem to be doing pretty well in some places, too
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/winooski-river-fishway-has-a-record-salmon-spawning-run-2011-11-22
Some of these runs aren’t just “good”, they are the best ever in recorded history but you will never hear that on the national media because the idea in the national media is to tell people that the natural environment is constantly deteriorating. Ask people someone outside the local area what they think salmon runs of today compared to 50 years ago are and I would be willing to bet they would believe they are most likely smaller. Nobody hears that we have more salmon than ever in many of these rivers.
Birds being unable to escape temperature changes is a bit like being unable to outrun rising sea levels of 0.1mm per annum.
The BBC has a program called Countryfile, another alarmist show with some country news. On it there was an interview with a Dr Tim Rich of the Natural Museum Wales who claimed that small alpine flowers growing in Snowdonia were in danger from a 2C temperature rise because they ‘have nowhere to go’ since they were already at the top of the mountain. Never mind that these same alpines grow in Switzerland where summer temperatures frequently exceed ours in the UK and that these plants survived previous warm periods when temperatures were higher than now.
I have emailed Dr Rich a question about this but so far no reply. I am not holding my breath.
J. Felton says:
December 12, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Up here in BC, we had a large decline in salmon in the Fraser river one year. People screamed ” It’s Global warming” and started to panic, worrying about about how we destroyed the stocks.
The next year set all-time records as millions of salmon came rushing back, and in greater numbers. ( Insert Star Wars joke here.)
I remember, about 20yrs ago in the UK, we couldn’t drive more than a few hundred yards without passing a flat hedgehog. Now it’s a rare sight. Must have been the evil motorists targeting the poor creatures (BBC Version).
On the hills where I live, two springs ago, the place was covered in foxgloves. This year the numbers were far lower; it was the turn of the rose-bay willow herb to flourish.
There is no ‘balance of nature,’ delicate or otherwise.
But when we are dealing with greenies who can believe that plants can fly faster than birds, observations are futile.
Maybe a dumb question but, which ‘spring flowers’ are they looking at?
In this part of the world, ‘spring’ is kinda defined by when daffodils, narcissii, snowdrops etc emerge.
But lots of these are sold as cut flowers and plant breeders are constantly trying to get them to flower earlier and earlier so as to command a premium price.
So, just wonderin’, these folks ain’t confusing plant breeding advances with climate change by any chance?
As a non-scientist, I am wondering if the people coming up with these conclusions e.g. that “It’s global warming” if salmon do not appear one year, are incapable of getting beyond a base idea.
What I am getting at here is that they do not seem to have a concept beyond their own expectations.
A good example this year was the balmy weather that we had in Canberra at the beginning of August. I would have simply called it an early spring, or perhaps just a sign of what might be coming. However a radio personality who has never experienced Canberra weather before started rabbiting on about “climate change” being the cause of those few balmy days. Well, since then, the weather has been anything but balmy for several months, and here we are in summer with a morning temperature of 6C.
“Although the triggers for bee spring emergence are unknown, bees may simply be cued to emerge when temperatures rise above a threshold over a number of days, but “if climate change accelerates the way it is expected to, we don’t know if bees will continue to keep up,” says Danforth.”
How exactly does it follow that if bees respond to a certain threshold temperature, then bringing that temperature foward, they wont be able to respond? Either we’re missing a vital part of the reasoning in this report of his press release or he clearly needs lots more money to come up with that reasoning pronto.
but “if climate change accelerates the way it is expected to, we don’t know if bees will continue to keep up,” says Danforth.
What a bunch of dishonest people. If you get a few years in a row of warming this is a trend to Armageddon, but if you get a 130 year trend of bees and plants adapting you are not sure they will continue to do so. Let a geologist/engineer help you botanists and entymologists out. Plants of a given species generally cover wide swaths of latitude – hey even longitude: I saw what appeared to be the same birch trees, scotch thistle, dandelions, clover, etc. etc in Ukraine as I’ve seen in Canada and a large part of the US. Pretty much the same bees are operating in North America at least. If Tennessee were to start its spring 30 days later, then their similar plants and bees would wake up the same time they do in Ontario. You-all should be ashamed of yourselves. Oh, and a little more help for you entymologists, the bees like more than one kind of flower so they are already adapted even more than you thought.
> I cannot believe that some city slicker with a PhD just theorized that bees may become active when the temperature gets to a certain point. The trouble with scientists that grew up in a city
Hey! Do you know where Ithaca even is? It’s all farm country and forests up here. We’ve got real birds and bees to study. This isn’t some Central Park naturalist spouting off on the way to Starbucks.