From Duke University , another Durban doozy, yes we’ll have roasted fowl in the trees because they may not be moving fast enough.
DURHAM, N.C. — Tropical birds are moving to higher elevations because of climate change, but they may not be moving fast enough, according to a new study by Duke University researchers.
The study, published Thursday in the peer-reviewed online journal PLoS ONE, finds that the birds aren’t migrating as rapidly as scientists previously anticipated, based on recorded temperature increases.
The animals instead may be tracking changes in vegetation, which can only move slowly via seed dispersal.
“This is the first study to evaluate the effects of warming on the elevation ranges of tropical birds,” said Stuart Pimm, Doris Duke Professor of conservation ecology at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment and a co-author of the study. “It provides new evidence of their response to warming, but also shows there is a delay in their response.”
Evidence from temperate areas, such as North America and Europe, shows that many animal and plant species are adapting to climate change by migrating northward, breeding earlier or flowering earlier in response to rising temperatures.
“However, our understanding of the response of tropical birds to warming is still poor,” said German Forero-Medina, a Ph.D. student at Duke’s Nicholas School who is lead author of the new study. “Moving to the north doesn’t help them, because tropical temperatures do not change very much with latitude. So moving up to higher elevations is the only way to go, but there are few historical data that can serve as baselines for comparison over time.”
What is going on with tropical species at higher altitudes is important, Forero-Medina said, because about half of all birds species live 3,500 feet or more above sea level, and of these species, more than 80 percent may live within the tropics.
In 2010, the authors of the new study and a team of biologists participated in an expedition to the summit of the remote Cerros del Sira mountains in central Peru – a place visited by only a few ornithologists on prior occasions. The complex topography, geology and climate of the mountains have produced isolated patches of habitat with unique avian communities and distinct taxa.
Forero-Medina and his colleagues used survey data collected on bird species in the region in the 1970s by John Terborgh, research professor emeritus at Duke, to compare past and present distributions.
“Using John Terborgh’s groundbreaking data — the first ever collected from this region –gave us a unique opportunity to understand the effects of 40 years of warming on tropical birds,” Forero-Medina says.
The biologists found that although the ranges of many bird species have shifted uphill since Terborgh’s time, the shifts fell short of what scientists had projected based on temperature increases over the four decades.
“This may be bad news,” Pimm said. “Species may be damned if they move to higher elevations to keep cool and then simply run out of habitat. But, by staying put, they may have more habitat but they may overheat.”
CITATION: “Elevational Ranges of Birds on a Tropical Montane Gradient Lag Behind Warming Temperatures” German Forero-Medina, John Terborgh, S. Jacob Socolar & Stuart L. Pimm. PLoS ONE, Dec. 7, 2011.
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This peer-reviewed study all goes to prove the old idiom that “A hand in the bush is worth two birds on the arm.”
“JohnWho says:
December 8, 2011 at 11:23 am
So, the chicken crossed the road to get to a warmer climate?”
No, two spinsters were on a farm when they saw a rooster chasing a chicken. The chicken tried to run across the road but got hit by a car and got killed. One said to the other: “See Esther, she would rather be dead!”
This smells like the crap Chamiedes serves up on his website http://www.thegreengrok.com….
Well then, someone needs to start a campaign to get these birds on board with AGW. Come on social media, come up with some catastrophic commercials geared towards our feathered friends! Maybe some ‘sploding baby bird eggs would help moves things along.
LamontT says:
December 8, 2011 at 4:03 pm
The 30 – 40 degree temperature swings daily in the California Central valley must then be killing birds right and left.
Anyone?
LamontT
I saw a dead pigeon AND squirrel this week. So there you go…. Definitely caused by Global Warming! I mean, what else could have caused it?????
Oh, I live in Fresno.
I just ruined my little joke… I blame Global Warming.
We’ve also had these stupid studies blaming shrinking birds, sheep, etc on global warming.
I would have thought some of that if correct could be explained on the need for animals not needing to store as much body fat because of more abundant food supply during a natural warming cycle?
Hugh Pepper says:
December 8, 2011 at 9:37 am
Clearly, the environments in which these animals have adapted are changing, as a result of climate change and land uses which disturb their habitats. This is a serious matter for these creatures and should not be trivialized in any way. Some species will not be able to adapt to dramatically changed environmental conditions, and their existence is threatened. We should all, be concerned with this reality, because it affects everyone.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Very concerning. It could mean the extinction of Pepper Plants … ;-P
Did I read this correctly, studies 40 years apart, with no monitoring of habitat and temperatures in between? How the heck do these so-called scientists know what these birds have been doing in the intervening years! Those birds could have migrated from valley floor to treeline and back many times in the intervening years, doing what birds do – looking for food, mates and nesting areas.
Well, according to GISS and HadCrut (sources which we are told are impeccable) over the last 150 years or so, global “average” temps have gone up by about 1 degree. The study authors might want to note that if you break the tropics out and look at their change in temperature only, it turns out that the tropics have gone up about 0.1 or 0.2 at the most. Maybe the birds aren’t responding to climate change because the climate didn’t change?
Anthony – I’m not certain that “Durban doozy” has the right ring to it. How about “Durban Myth”?
LexingtonGreen says:
December 8, 2011 at 9:44 am
“Good night. Maybe they are not migrating because it is not getting hotter. Or did I miss something.”
Yeah, apparently bird behavior does not count as evidence for temperatures. The scientists worry that the birds have missed the memo about rising temperatures. No doubt birds have defective temperature measurement tools, unlike Michael Mann, or they detect the changes but prefer a high risk lifestyle. Where are the bird houses located?
This is truly the worst paper I have ever seen. Birds migrate on their own time, and they have to migrate in smaller groups as they don’t tax the resources of their own migratory routes. They are not mindless nor stupid, but this paper sure makes them look like they have no survival instincts at all.
Evidence from temperate areas, such as North America and Europe, shows that many animal and plant species are adapting to climate change by migrating northward….
Yes, the migratory Ducks around here at about 46 degrees North are now paddling around only at the North end of the Lake! While here at the South end on land, I hear that I will still have to deal with the Palm trees and Girls Gone Wild sometime around tomorrow morning. So I’d better say goodbye now, before it’s too late!
But a least that gigantic Jurassic Bobcat took off North, too, after pausing on my patio a few days ago in broad daylight, leaving 31/2″ prints in something that looks like the pictures I’ve seen of snow, while probably trying to escape the oncoming Climate Refugees, Crocodiles, and some early Pterodactyls, themselves credibly reported by Michael “Meester Bandito” Mann himself to be fleeing the Mosquito hordes, Mexican Killer Bees, and some significant numbers of African American Army Ants worked up into a feeding frenzy by the heat.
So the evidence from North America is definitely there…it’s not their fault, but we’re doooomed I tell you! Goodbye, all.
The diurnal temperature changes are greater than the feared alarmist change. Animals follow the food and keep cool, if necessary, by other means like bathing in rivers or pools as can be seen being done by birds in ones own garden birdbath.
A point proving, but failing, paper.
The birds are migrating to higher altitudes? Oh no! They’ll be pining for the Fjords even more now!
G. Karst says:
December 8, 2011 at 9:53 am
I have never seen birds (other than overcrowded chickens/turkeys) die and fall to the ground, due to warmth. I have, however, one -40 F day, observed sparrows and chickadees, drop one by one, to the ground due to the killing cold. Warming is a pleasant walk in the park. GK
=====================
actually a week or more of 40C temps and a drought you will see sparrows and finches and other birds falling off their perches and dying, it does happen in Aus, if theres any water and a bit of shade around they seem to manage ok.
“The biologists found that although the ranges of many bird species have shifted uphill since Terborgh’s time, the shifts fell short of what scientists had projected based on temperature increases over the four decades.”
—————
The birds have shifted exactly as much as required to respond to all changes in their environment, temperature being only one factor. They figure this out on their own, and the survivors have by definition come up with the right answer. The scientists’ “projections” are simply wrong. The only valid conclusion to draw from the study is the models used to make the projections are not useful.
Meanwhile, back in the world of actual observation, escaped/released tropical birds (Monk Parakeets) have managed to survive the winters in Chicago by combining into colonies and building enclosed nests in city park trees. The “climate change” from their native Argentina to Chicago (at least 25 C colder average for the winter) dwarfs anything measured, projected, or even imagined by the IPCC.
Living organisms adapt to change. Show me a model which predicts that and I’ll start paying attention.
Somehow the link included above got deleted. Should be:
http://monkparakeet.com/jmsouth/intro.html
Stop global warming, let’s go green!!!
I have a few other “Stop…” signs I would like to mention, just to add to Dita’s post.
Stop bug bites, let’s go sleevless!!!
Stop toilet lid up, leave it down!!!
Stop mornings, let’s just have afternoons!!!
Stop fat, let’s eat anything we want to goddammit!!!
Stop hangovers, let’s drink as much as we want!!!
Stop staff meetings, let’s get something done instead!!!
Hugh Pepper wrote, “Clearly, the environments in which these animals have adapted are changing, as a result of climate change and land uses which disturb their habitats. ”
Yes, land use changes are the real problem, and, ironically and tragically, some of these land use changes are to grow biofuels such as palm oil. If we humans want to preserve even remnant populations of tropical bird species and other species of the tropical forests, we need to preserve portions of the forests themselves- duh. When friends and I hiked to the top of Table Rock Mountain, SC, about 8 weeks ago and watched hundreds of Broadwing Hawks migrating to their winter home, the tropical forests of northern South America, I wondered if those forest homes would even be there when they arrived. And when we watched dozens of Monarchs flying at eye level to their winter Mexican home, I wodered the same thing. The slight warming of recent decades is a distraction from the real problem of land use change. As a lifelong conservationist and environmental educator, I realize, with some sadness, that we can not preserve all threatened habitats, but, at the very least, we can understand what the real threats are. I sincerely hope Anthony’s readers here do not become alienated from traditional conservationism because of the fear mongering of the green extremists and climate catastrophists.
Some birds definitely can’t outfly windmill blades …
Read your reference:
As I read it, the birds were there because of shade and water. The water ran out, the adult birds left, the immature birds stayed and perished. Like all animals water is the critical factor.
As in human reality… the foolish young birdbrains perish.
The wise old bird lives to breed the females, sip the nectar.
Stupidity kills, always has. GK
Hugh Pepper says:
December 8, 2011 at 9:37 am
Clearly, the environments in which these animals have adapted are changing, as a result of climate change and land uses which disturb their habitats. This is a serious matter for these creatures and should not be trivialized in any way. Some species will not be able to adapt to dramatically changed environmental conditions, and their existence is threatened. We should all, be concerned with this reality, because it affects everyone.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
BULLOCKS!
Animals and plants have been adapting for millions of years to temperature swings of 10C or more.
The real killer that is actually catastrophic to ALL higher life forms on this planet is a DECREASE of CO2 below the level that plants need. That level seems to be in the 180 to 250 PPM range and the planet was getting very close to that range by binding up the available carbon in ways that plants can not use.
For what it is worth, I just had two kids born this morning. That means the TEMPERATURE and SUNLIGHT was similar to September (Rut season for deer and goats) in JULY! The gestation period is 131 days for goats. High temperatures make buck goats and rams infertile. I live in central North Carolina were normal temps are 90 -100F in July. This out of season lambing and kidding has become “Common” over the last few years BTW.
ADDENDUM to last post.
I am very tempted to drive up to Duke and dump these two buck kids on Stuart Pimm’s desk and asking him to explain their existence!