From Slashdot:
After years of beautiful concept cars, envy-inspiring demos, and missed production targets starting in 2008, high-efficiency car startup Aptera is liquidating its assets.
A pointed excerpt from Wired’s account:
“The truth is, Aptera always faced long odds and has been in trouble for at least two years. The audience for a sperm-shaped, three-wheeled, electric two-seater was never anything but small. It didn’t help that production of the 2e — at one point promised for October 2009 — was continually delayed as Wilbur ordered redesigns to make it more appealing to the mainstream.
Aptera had a small window in which to be a first mover in the affordable EV space, and that window closed the moment the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt hit the market. At that point, Aptera teetered on the brink of irrelevance.”
While I like the idea of electric cars for city travel (I have one a bit more practical than that above) I’ll admit that they don’t make much sense for an everyday family car, and making a car that looks like something out of a Woody Allen movie puts an even greater damper on the marketability issue.
The reason that many electrics are three wheelers are due to arcane laws in the USA that allow three wheelers to be licensed as motorcycles, with no upwards spped limit or crash testing required, while four wheelers must be limited to 25mph (40km/hr) as NEV’s (Neighborhood Electric Vehicles) or must go through crash testing that cost upwards to half a million dollars. While Leaf and Volt have passed that (Since Nissan and GM have deep pockets) it leaves the smaller companies struggling to find a niche outside of the limited “Ed Begely Junior” market.
Here’s a look at Leaf and Volt EV sales in the US from The Daily Bayonet:
===================================================
Nissan sold 672 Leaf vehicles and GM sold 1139 Volts.
Nissan is still far in the lead with a grand total for the calendar year at 8720, though GM is slowly closing the gap at 6142 sales. Note that for comparison purposes, the 326 Volts sold in December 2010 are not included. To balance this, Volts which spontaneously combust are not deducted from total sales, despite the total loss of vehicle, and sometimes the home too.
Whether or not stories of fiery Volts will affect future sales remains to be seen, though for a car in its early stages of adoption to require complex ‘power-down’ procedures in the event of accidents isn’t a good sign. Imagine if Ford had advised Pinto owners to follow a protocol to drain the gas tank after a collision. Not good.
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Ralph, A lot more goes into producing a car that is marketable, safe, and reliable (36 – 100 mile warrantee) than what some guy can piece together in his garage. Heck, Honda probably doesn’t make much on a conventional S2000 seeing that it is a 2 seat roadster, which is a niche vehicle. The creator of the electric S2000 admits that the performance still has as yet unresolved issues.
“… Power steering is electric assist. Air conditioning isn’t installed yet but coming later. I haven’t test range or top speed yet but hope too soon after I finish my cell balancers…”
Ramon Leigh, Just like we’ve been hearing about solar for at least the last 50 years we are also constantly hearing that some new miraculous battery technology that is just around the corner. Generally if something sounds too good to be true that is because it’s not true. The proof is in the implementation.
Some people like to malign internal combustion engined equipped vehicles. I think that perhaps the modern car performs so well and is so ubiquitous and reliable that people take it for granted. It probably is the difference between people that regard the car as a utility and don’t really know or care much about how it works and actual car enthusiasts who spin wrenches.
Blade says:
December 5, 2011 at 7:17 am
I’ve always said that the easiest way to spot a malcontent (liberal greenie progressive socialist neo-comm whatever) is by their lack of a sense of humor. Fortunately we normal people do not have this problem, on the contrary some of the funniest stuff ever written comes from the skeptic (true science) community. Both of these guys are responsible for soda stains all over my computer …
Ralph [December 4, 2011 at 8:31 am] says:
Sorry different Ralph.
Justa Joe says:
December 5, 2011 at 10:12 am
Ralph, A lot more goes into producing a car that is marketable, safe, and reliable (36 – 100 mile warrantee) than what some guy can piece together in his garage. Heck, Honda probably doesn’t make much on a conventional S2000 seeing that it is a 2 seat roadster, which is a niche vehicle. The creator of the electric S2000 admits that the performance still has as yet unresolved issues.
It simply shows the car makers aren’t any further ahead in their designs for electric vehicles than a doit-yourselfer.
>>Ralph says: December 5, 2011 at 6:57 am
>>A Honda S2000 converted to electric. Funny the
>>manufacturers can’t do this.
The name ‘Ralph’ has already been taken, please use something else. You are making me look like a schizophrenic here !!
.
>Justa Joe says:
> …
>Ramon Leigh, Just like we’ve been hearing about solar for at least the last 50 years we are also
>constantly hearing that some new miraculous battery technology that is just around the corner.
>Generally if something sounds too good to be true that is because it’s not true. The proof is in
>the implementation.
Right on the money Joe, I’ve been waiting 4 years for my Coleman Flashcell Screwdriver (http://www.ultracapacitors.org/index.php?option=com_content&id=76&task=view). No telling how long I’ll have to wait for a “miracle” battery that does away with the ICE.
Any R/C electric plane pilot (like myself) can point you to online boards like rcgroups.com where you can find lots of posts and videos on the problems we still have with lithium cells. Puffing, fires, explosions and even cells just plain wearing out after a couple of years are still major issues. And no car company has standardized ANYTHING to do with the battery packs including replacement or even charging…. lets see how just just the evolution of packs every couple of years will make that $15-25K battery obsolete and likely irreplaceable when it wears out (or the salesman tells you it’s trade-in value is zero when you go to get your next vehicle….)
From Dan in California on December 3, 2011 at 10:51 pm:
Check eBay for “electric bicycle kit”, they have plenty. Voltages are in 12V increments from 24 to 48V, ratings from 250 to 1000W. Brushless hub motors, actually the assembly is a replacement spoked rim, 26″ normally (others available) with reported top speeds of 24 to 60 km/hr (15 to 37 mph). Rear wheel units with a 5 or 6 gear sprocket, sprocket-less front wheel units. Prices vary, expect with shipping to be around US$250 without batteries, expect many sellers to ship “sea mail 7-8 weeks” from China or thereabouts although there are “local” US sellers with faster shipping. Included is controller w/ charger function, brake and “throttle” controls, LED headlight/battery meter unit with key lock… Just turn signals and a speedometer short of being an electric moped conversion. All the packages look so much alike, I could believe they all come from the same Chinese factory.
Put one or perhaps two units on an “adult tricycle” like a nice Schwinn Meridian, under $300 with a 300# weight limit (Target listing) although I’ve read elsewhere they can take more weight. With the large rear basket you can haul groceries and stuff, use it for the daily commute. Actually there’s a review on the linked Schwinn company site where someone did that, 36V 500W, at 15mph got 20 miles to a charge, saved $95 in gas in a month.
So for under $1000, well under with just one motor, you have a nice little fair-weather commuter vehicle, which doesn’t need vehicle insurance or registration and is easy to park, which will keep going even if the battery runs out (you can pedal), and will let you brag about your Greener-than-thou credentials.
Heck, use 12V batteries with some creative wiring and switching, you could bring along a common 12V automotive solar panel and charge when possible when not in use, I found a 50W unit for $180, a 20W for $80. You could go for the full voltage, even charge during use, but that’s the range of golf cart chargers and much more expensive. For example, here’s one that’s 36 or 48V, 100W, for a mere $1100 with shipping.
How would you carry that panel? You don’t, you mount it above the seat with lightweight metal tubing, it’ll help keep the rain and sun off your head, then you can ride it even more.
Everything together would be cheap to acquire, cheap to keep, versatile and suitable for many daily tasks, never use a drop of gas, and if you conscientiously use it instead of a car whenever possible then you’ll undoubtedly save money, with a potential payback period of under one year. Plus all your Green friends will be incredibly jealous.
And this represents the height of current electric vehicles being truly affordable and worthwhile, and the only one I’d consider getting, which I am btw. You could give a new one to at least 30 different people for what one 2012 Prius plug-in will cost. They even have a decent shot at being truly run by 100% renewable energy, with low-cost at-home chargers as needed. If you’re really truly worried about “carbon emissions” then you’d support these, as it’s very possible for the only in-use emissions traceable to them to be extra CO2 from the users themselves when they accidentally get some exercise and manually pedal them.
But will any national or local governments get behind the concept with fiscal support to reduce carbon emissions? Nah, it makes more sense to them to give people, who already have the money and/or credit to buy new hybrid and all-electric vehicles, even more money and/or credit to buy those vehicles, even though those vehicles will yield just a tiny fraction of the possible energy and emissions savings of the systems I’ve proposed. For them it’s not about saving the planet, but saving election votes, and especially saving the campaign contributions of those who can most afford to pretend to be Green.
Arnold Ring,
I’ve doing a little research on your idea about using EV batteries to charge during “off-peak” hours and discharge during “peak” hours for domestic electricity consumption. I can see where you’ve got that idea as the internet is littered with guy’s suggesting this. This idea originates from Nissan promoting the use of the EV for emergency back-up power during black-outs. As far as I can tell, however, neither Nissan nor Toyota has recommended using their battery for general electricty consumption.
In addition to the problems with using an EV battery for this purpose previously outlined in this thread. There is an inherent problem with the charge/discharge efficiency of batteries in general. Basically depending on Myriad factors the amount of energy you put into a battery during charging is greater than the amount of energy received during discharging. Lithium Ion batteries, which the Nissan has, are best in regard to efficiency, but you’re still talking as low as 90% efficiency depending on rate of discharge.
This link explains details of lithium-Ion charge/discharge characteristics.
http://www.large-battery.com/news/373.htm
Has anyone actually seen a Leaf or a Volt on the road yet? I haven’t spotted one yet.
My 1996 geo metro got me an honest 40 mpg in rural driving. Auto with a 1.3 liter motor made for a quick vehicle. GM bought up Suzuki and slowly screwed the brilliant Geo metro into the ground. Ford had a similar 40+ mpg. The Geo 1.0 gets up to 50mpg or more with the 5-speed transmission. Don’t give me any garbage on how GM or Ford care. Old Man Ford AND Grandpa Chevrolet would climb out of their graves and strangle those responsible for the utter decay and destruction of the American auto industry.
Justa Joe
Yes, charge/discharge has an overhead. Savings from cheap offpeak electricity will at times exceed that overhead.
Nissan didn’t invent the idea of using car batteries as distributed storage. There is literature going back at least a decade. Recent paper here looks at the tradeoffs http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775309017303
EVs are inherently more fuel efficient than ICE. So the price of fuel is all important in the decision to switch from ICE to electric.
None of the government loan relates to the $109K Roadster. It was and is specifically targeted to the new $57K Model S original design 5+2-seater sedan (plus advancing their already world-beating battery and drive system, the ESS). The ‘S’ is spectacular, and has sold out more than the first full year’s production in advance.
Arnold Ring (@ArnoldRing) says:
December 10, 2011 at 9:10 am
Yes, charge/discharge has an overhead. Savings from cheap offpeak electricity will at times exceed that overhead.
Nissan didn’t invent the idea of using car batteries as distributed storage…
———————–
Guy, You’re living in a fantasy world.
#1 I never said Nissan recommended using the Leaf battery for “distributed storage”. In fact I said they did not recommend using the Leaf battery in this way rather only for emergency back-up. There’s literature out there about just about everything. Who cares?
#2 Do you really think that John Q. Public is going to have the time and desire to engage in this nonsense? My guess is even the normay DAILY charging of the EV’s battery will be considered too tedious for the average person.
Say what? Speaking of fantasies …
In the real world, owners of EVs find spending the few seconds required each night to plug in their car, with the consequence that they start out EVERY day with a FULL charge, is immensely rewarding — resulting in involuntary smirks and cackles of glee as they drive past the gas pumps they’ll never again have to visit.
People charge their iphones every night. Even Americans can manage that much hardship
Brian H says:
December 15, 2011 at 9:52 pm
——————-
Talk about Fantasy? Most people visit a gas station about once or twice a week. They don’t have to fiddle around with plugging in and unplugging their car daily, but you’re right most present EV owners probably don’t mind it… because they’re nerds.
Arnold Ring (@ArnoldRing) says:
December 16, 2011 at 9:33 am
People charge their iphones every night. Even Americans can manage that much hardship
——————-
Remember that time when you wanted to charge your “iphone,” but there was a driving rain storm and your daughter’s boyfriend’s car was blocking your access? How about the evening you were just too dog tired to shovel the snow from the entrance to your garage so that you could plug in your “iphone”? Remeber the time that you meant to go into the gargage and plug in your “iphone” but you got distracted and just forgot?
JJ;
your mental models seem to be full of all sorts of debris.
In case you missed it, I referenced actual current ongoing real-world feedback (mostly from the Tesla Motors forums, etc.) . People spend a few seconds after entering their garage plugging in, a few seconds unplugging before leaving, and that’s it.
They love it, notwithstanding your nonsense fantasies.
Brian,
You’re talking Tesla fanboys and the most ardent and vocal Tesla fanboys at that. If I go to the recumbant bicycle forum I’m sure that they’ll be in love with their bikes too. So what? Actually there is probably significant overlap between those 2 groups already.
All I did was give real world examples that people will encounter who are just people that want convenient transportation, and aren’t volunteering to take one for the ‘green’ team.
@JustaJoe Despite 100 years of dominance by the ICE, many people still run out of gas every day, lock the doors when the engine’s running, find it too much trouble to go out of their way to fill up because they “think” they’ll have enough (with predictable results) and have trouble starting their gas guzzlers in bad weather.
Not to mention pumping gas when it’s freezing and windy outside.
None of those problems, which we had to cope with for decades prevented the proliferation of ICEs and none of your fanciful objections will prevent “iphones” from becoming popular.
DMarshall says:
December 17, 2011 at 8:22 am
@JustaJoe Despite 100 years of dominance by the ICE, many people still run out of gas every day,
———————–
Running out of gas isn’t a daily occurance for the average person. I’ve only run out of gas twice in my life, and I was a broke young adult at the time. Imagine the increased likelyhood of running out of fuel when your car only has about 50 miles of range, and you can’t just walk to a gas station and bring back a gallon of gas. I hope that you’re not trying to sell me the idea that battery Guzzlers are immune to mechanical problems or running out of juice?
Anyway I never said that these relatively minor inconveniences would prevent EV’s from becoming popular. EV’s have other problems. That’s why they were originally swept from the roadways 100 years ago by the ICE. I find your prejudices about gasoline powered cars to be quite antiquated they sound like some propaganda from the 70’s.
I only brought up the inconveniences involved with daily charging because some other EV-phile on this thread was selling the point of using EV’s as “distributed storage.” I’m merely pointing out that your average Joe is not likely to want to worry about charging the car and trying to game the electric company for a few fractions of a cent per KWh on his electric bill.
@JustaJoe With sufficient numbers of EVs in an area, the use of them as distributed storage is potentially valid. But some car owners will want to play, if the price is right, and many (or most) won’t.
Of course there’s potential for running out of charge – it’s called range anxiety. But you were bringing up the potential hassles of home charging and I’d sooner have to deal with those than with trying to get fuel in bad weather when the stations are well out of my way.
.
Wow, this post is still alive!
The market is passing judgement on EV’s. Probably because gasoline powered cars are just too convenient. Refueling in 3 minutes is a huge advantage, and so is the much greater range of gas powered cars. I’m also opposed to the gargantuan taxpayer subsidies poured into EV’s.
EV’s are like curly tube fluorescent bulbs. The bulbs may save some energy, but who wants ’em? There are too many advantages to incandescent bulbs, including added warmth in winter, no mercury, and despite the claims, my experience is that incandescent bulbs last as long. Plus, I can buy them four for a buck at the local dollar store.
I’ll wait for cheap, affordable LED bulbs – and for EV’s that can go 300 miles on a 5-minute charge. Until then, they’re just too much hassle.
Well Smokey part of your waiting may not be too long.
A former student of mine is very much involved in LEDs and has been for twenty years. He is sanguine about their future.
Apparently the problems are threefold.
The first is to use a very cheap silicon base rather than expensive materials like gallium.
The second is what they call droop, that efficiency falls off very quickly with increased current density.
The third is getting the spectrum right.
Nevertheless he seems to be confident that they have solved all these problems and it is only a matter of moving towards mass production. CFLs he thinks will be as extinct as dinosaurs within a few years. He may well be right.
Which raises another question. A friend of mine is electrical superintendent for a ship management company which used to manage my bottoms before i sold them all: some of us saw the slump coming.
He is fascinated by LED technology not only for its low voltage and high efficiency but its lifetime too, with perhaps 50,000 hours of life they approach the lifetime of the ship itself which implies that the luminaires will also change because you do not need to renew the bulb regularly. Effectually you only need to replace the bulkhead fitting complete with its built in LED.
And of course it is very well suited to continuous monitoring, the basic technology of which they already have, so you can spot a failing unit and replace it when docked well before it conks out. With savings on crewing, it becomes a simple shore job, as well as on board supplies.
As to EVA’s you know my views set out in my above post.
Kindest Regards
a jones,
Thanks for that information. I suspected that LED’s would become affordable because they are so much superior to the competition regarding energy use.
Ludicrous. The distinction between “fanboy” and “satisfied user” is exactly what, pliz??
And I doubt you can find many/any examples of people who dislike, much less gave up, their EVs, especially Tesla Evs, because of the horrifically onerous drudgery of spending 20 seconds plugging in and 20 seconds unplugging each day.
I should also note that for the vast majority, even “each day” is unnecessary, as a full charge will cover several days driving/commuting. At, I again remind you, about 1/10 of the marginal cost per mile of gasoline.