From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
University of Miami study rethinks the ocean’s role in Pacific climate
The new study can aid scientists in better understanding regional and global effects of climate change in the Pacific
MIAMI – November 15, 2011 – University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science researchers have climate scientists rethinking a commonly held theory about the ocean’s role in the global climate system. The new findings can aid scientists in better understanding and predicting changes in the Pacific climate and its impacts around the globe.
According to the study’s lead author, UM Rosenstiel School Professor Amy Clement, the tropical atmospheric pressure system know as the Southern Oscillation (a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure commonly observed as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which brings unusually warm water across the Pacific Ocean basin) plays a bigger, more fundamental role in the climate system than just being El Niño’s atmospheric counterpart.
Scientists have long believed that the Southern Oscillation exists due to its connection to the ocean. “This study changes the textbook version of one of the most fundamental aspects of atmospheric circulation,” said Clement, whose study was published in the August 2011 issue of American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios – one with a static, current-free ocean and another with a fully dynamic ocean. The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.
In a news item in the Sept. 29 issue of the journal Nature, Research Institute for Global Change scientists Jing-Jia Luo said, “…Clement et al. argue impressively that it is not necessary to couple ocean dynamics to the atmosphere in models to reproduce tropi¬cal climate modes and their associated global connections.”
British physicist Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the Southern Oscillation in the early 20th century when trying to understand and predict India’s monsoons, which caused torrential rains and widespread famine in the region. He proved that this large-scale sea-level pressure in the tropics connected India’s weather with other weather patterns across the world.
“This new development can help link climate patterns between distant region, such as rainfall patterns in Australia and drought in the Southwestern U.S.,” said Clement.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Wil – the decision process behind the spatial lay down of climate data/models has frustrated ne for years.
If you have a coupled climate model, and you get the same result regardless of whether you couple it to a full or a “static, current-free” representation of the ocean … well, I must confess, my first explanation would be “trouble with the model”.
In addition, I don’t know how you’d test to find out about the trouble. I mean, if the coupled model gives the same results with any ocean … makes it hard to figure out what’s going on.
The abstract says:
So the hype is only partially true. You need to couple the ocean heat and moisture fluxes to get the SO response …
I’ll have to get the article and read it. I’m not even sure what they think they’ve done, much less what they have actually done.
w.
Willis, you said:”I’m not even sure what they think they’ve done, much less what they have actually done.” I’ll go you one farther… I’m not sure they know what they they’ve done.
Jean Parisot says:
November 15, 2011 at 10:29 am
Wil – the decision process behind the spatial lay down of climate data/models has frustrated me for years.
—————–
Hopefully Anthony and others will use this site to question why as you and I apparently have been doing for decades.
Willis said: “I’m not even sure what they think they’ve done, much less what they have actually done.”
===================================
In a nut shell, they discovered that I can’t grow tomatoes in a La Nina year………….. 😉
DJ says:
November 15, 2011 at 10:09 am …
has hit my McDonalds button today (“I am lovin it”)
In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios – one with a static, current-free ocean and another with a fully dynamic ocean. The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios in their model, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present in their model even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.
“This new development can help link climate patterns between distant region in our model, such as rainfall patterns in the model Australia and drought in the model Southwestern U.S.,” said Clement.
There ya go. Fixed that for ya.
Joe Crawford says: “Willis, you said:”I’m not even sure what they think they’ve done, much less what they have actually done.” I’ll go you one farther… I’m not sure they know what they they’ve done.”
And I’m not only not sure what they think they’ve done matches what they’ve actually done, I’m not sure what they think they said they’ve done matches either what they’ve said they’ve done or what they think they’ve done.
I’m not sure these people have discovered anything except how to get publicity. Willis Eschenbach is being kind. I am not even sure a fully dynamic ocean model exists. I know they have models called this. I have not examined any for some years so I could be out of date. I have not had a physical oceanography course for a long time. Maybe they now have static models so good or dynamic models so poor that the results are the same. This is like looking for an absolutely straight line, of macro length in nature. Good luck.
Does the wind play a significant role in ENSO?
Link:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=stack0n140w_19980101_19981231_hf_stk1w_eps281t_2011111514.gif&P2=stack0n140w_19980101_19981231_hf_stk1w_eps281t_2011111514.plt&P3=649&P4=828&P5=/cache-tao/st1/jsdisplay&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif.csh
Or is it all the fish swimming in the same direction? 🙂
In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios – one with a static, current-free ocean and another with a fully dynamic ocean. The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.
Wonder if they also disconnect the land masses from the atmosphere in their computer simulation would they also show an unchanged ENSO signature?
Could it be the internal simulation atmosphere dynamics have been so tuned in the model that it always produces the same assumed “world”. Seems that might explain a lot we have seen in these model generated papers.
It strikes me that there is sometimes some disconnect between what is published in the Anglosaxon world and elsewhere.
This article reminds me of the challenging hypothesis by Leistenschneider (Germany). See:
http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-anzeige/la-nina-und-el-nino-was-sich-dahinter-verbirgt-und-was-sie-wann-ausloest-die-sonne-ist-an-allem-schuld/
It is in German, but with Google Translator one might get the gist of it.
I would be grateful for comments from people who are more knowledgeable than I am in these sorts of things.
Is it really called an experiment when you use models to get the results? I’m not a scientist, so this is an open question (not rhetorical).
James, that’s not an easy question to answer.
A scientific experiment is a situation designed to allow measurement of some effect predicted by a scientific theory/hypothesis.
In this case, the effect they are measuring is whether ENSO as an atmospheric phenomena is linked to or driven by ENSO as an ocean phenomena.
They aren’t actually measuring anything real, So i’d say this isn’t a scientific experiment.
However, what they are doing is deriving predictions from 2 different theories (coupled and uncoupled ENSO) and then comparing these predictions to the results of previous experiments encapsulated in the model(s). So I’d say this is science.
‘Reanalysis’ is IMO a better term for what they have done.
And then there is La Nina. That erratic box of climatctic chocolates.
Is La Nina more or less signifcant because it’s erratic, or because it might be the overall Ice Age Cycle signal that ultimately ends the Interglacial?
[snip – Mr. Sargent, while this is not directed at me, I really do grow tired of your condescending attitude toward me and others here – you are welcome to rewrite your submission, and resubmit it, sans the degrading snark – Anthony]
Scientists have long believed that the Southern Oscillation exists due to its connection to the ocean.
No, is that so? That’s like saying that scientists have long believed that rain exists due to its connection to the clouds or similar. That’s stating the bleedin’ ovbious surely……..
It started as a way of entertaining British troops in WW2, and now it’s driving the climate?
Gracie Fields would be proud.
Some sources say that Gilbert Walker’s work was never accepted by “mainstream” climate prophets. Be that as it may, Andres Urdaneta, an Augustinian navigator for the Spanish , needing to get back to Mexico from the Philippines in 1565, reasoned that a wind gyre like that known to exist in the Atlantic might also exist in the Pacific. He sailed north, picked up the westerlies and made landfall 4 months later off the California coast whence he sailed home to Acapulco. For the next two hundred years the eastern Pacific was a Spanish lake. Galleons sailed west from Acapulco and touched land around much of the southwestern Pacific, while also running a regular schedule to and from the Philippines. Maps of the period also indicate that the Spanish were aware of the prevailing currents along their preferred routes.
What practical knowledge do we get from this study that Urdaneta didn’t know? Who named the Southern Oscillation El Nino? Was that name influenced by the statue of a Christ Child that Magellan presented to the wife of the ruler of Cebu? Urdaneta discovered this statue and built a church to house it in 1565. Answers at: william.s.kessler@noaa.gov Your tax dollars at work.
Yet another model-based study.
Ric Werme says:
November 15, 2011 at 9:05 am
No replies, but my Email may have worked, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for got updated this AM, and I updated the ENSO meter before dinner.
The last six weeks from last year and this year:
Weekly SST data starts week centered on 3Jan1990 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06OCT2010 18.7-2.1 23.2-1.7 24.8-1.8 27.1-1.4 13OCT2010 18.9-2.0 23.0-1.9 25.1-1.5 27.1-1.3 20OCT2010 19.1-1.9 23.2-1.7 25.1-1.5 27.0-1.4 27OCT2010 19.8-1.4 23.6-1.4 25.2-1.4 27.0-1.4 03NOV2010 19.7-1.7 23.4-1.6 25.2-1.3 27.0-1.4 10NOV2010 19.5-2.0 23.5-1.5 25.2-1.3 27.2-1.2 ... 05OCT2011 19.8-1.0 24.1-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.7-0.7 12OCT2011 19.7-1.2 24.1-0.8 25.8-0.8 27.9-0.5 19OCT2011 20.0-1.0 23.9-1.0 25.8-0.7 28.1-0.3 26OCT2011 21.2 0.0 23.8-1.1 25.4-1.1 28.0-0.4 02NOV2011 20.5-0.9 23.9-1.0 25.6-0.9 27.9-0.5 09NOV2011 20.5-1.0 23.9-1.1 25.7-0.8 27.9-0.4Less strong, umm, less anomalous than last year.
Ric Werme says:
November 15, 2011 at 5:23 pm
There is a distinct pattern in them thar numbers that encapsulates the east to west nature of ENSO nicely.
Notice how the anomalies are stronger in the 1+2 region than the 3 region which in turn are stronger than the 4 region.
In the 2011 list, we see the 1+2 region varying somewhat with pools of warm water infiltrating the upwelled cool water.
In other words, La Nina is about to get strangled at the source, the 1+2 region.
It’s also interesting to note that despite the menace this La Nina threatened with (the Australian BoM was in a tizzy because they were put under pressure by the Queensland Government for a long range forecast) it (the menace) didn’t and won’t eventuate because the SOI never reached the dizzy heights of last year.
Wil says:
November 15, 2011 at 9:53 am
Moreover, why aren’t the earth’s mountains represented which again comes back to ALL of Canada’s and Russia’s mountain ranges? From the bottom to the top? We too cold for being included? We are part of the earth, are we not?
Surely you are not suggesting that by placing thermometers in the low points on land where cities and towns are most likely to be found, that the global temperature record does not reflect global temperatures. Surely you can’t be suggesting that because mountains are almost entirely excluded from temperature records in place like BC which is almost entirely mountains, that just maybe the temperature records are not accurate.
Maybe I’ve got this wrong but … if the atmosphere does not affect the ocean AND CO2 is part of the atmosphere AND the oceans are warming … doesn’t this mean CO2 is not responsible for ocean warming? So, if the oceans have been warming then it seems like the only thing left is that big shiny thing in the sky. Oh yeah, if that big shiny thing can warm the oceans might it not be able to warm the atmosphere as well?
We’re these guys trying to disprove AGW?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/15/enso-a-bigger-climate-driver-than-once-thought/#comment-797694
“including the link to the relevant pre-print paper”
Where will this “pre-print” be published?
“A preprint is a draft of a scientific paper that has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preprint
“Expressed in the Crossref terminology, any draft, starting from the Author’s Original Version but prior to the Accepted Version is a preprint, whereas any draft from the Accepted Version onward, including the Version of Record or Definitive Work is a postprint.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postprint
So please do inform us all, once your “pre-print paper” has passed the postprint stage, if you don’t mind..
The website states;
“HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemiation of scientific research papers, whether they are published or not, and for PhD dissertation. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.”
So that pretty much means that, if you how to write something, they’ll post it.
climate driver?
The sun drives the climate. ENSO is a domino further down the causality chain. It can be a bigger or smaller domino on closer inspection, but it ain’t a climate driver.