The major winter storm in Alaska mentioned overnight on WUWT, while weaker than the previous record storm 1974, gets pegged as being “aided and abetted by global warming”:
While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.
And where’s the proof? There is none, it is pure speculation, and not even good speculation at that.And as we see time and time again, when somebody speculates on these events, the analysis shows otherwise.
- Tornadoes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Hurricanes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Flooding linked to global warming- FALSE
- Increased deaths due to storminess in the era of global warming- FALSE
I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: how do we know the number and intensity measurements of storms aren’t due to reporting bias? 100 years ago, if when such a storm rolled in, did we have satellites, weather networks, and insta-launch web opinion to tell us it was connected to warming coming out of the little ice age? No. Were we even aware of such storms? Maybe – weeks or months later, if they got reported at all.
And what about this statement?
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
What happened in the 1960’s? Weather satellites, and weather monitoring was standardized in Alaska, thanks to it becoming the 49th state in 1959.
And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.
This bears repeating: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective
Tell writer Pete Spotts what you think of this here
h/t to WUWT reader A. Scott
UPDATE: 11/09/2011 7PM PST
Commenter Phillip Bradley writes:
…while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Masters’ claim of,
…an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s
Looks to be false.
I examined the paper and made this excerpt from Zhang et al 2004:
Doesn’t look like any significant trend to me. They write in the paper:
The trajectory counts of cyclones originating in the two regions also show signatures consistent with the CAI variability in the Arctic region (Fig. 11b). Specifically, there was a generally increasing tendency from 1955 to 1980 and a decreasing tendency after 1980 for both types of cyclones.
UPDATE2: 7:45PM PST – The NWS is now making claims of a Cat3 hurricane equivalent in this KTUU-TV news story:
Really? Where?
One the places cited in many news stories as being a problem spot is Kivalina. There’s not even any Cat1 winds there: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAVL.html
And Weather Underground sure doesn’t look all that bad, no hurricane force winds on this map:
The worst I found was Tin City, which briefly had Cat1 level winds:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PATC.html
UPDATE3: 8:15PM PST – the climb-down, no Cat 3 hurricane here:
Earlier today (see comment from John below for full text)
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 …ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD… A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
WWAK82 PAFG 100330 SPSWCZ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 630 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 ... ...STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO BUFFET WESTERN ALASKA... THE STRONG STORM WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING WESTERN ALASKA MOVED NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST REACHING WRANGELL ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HARD HITTING WEATHER WITH THIS STORM IS FAR FROM OVER AS SEA LEVELS RISE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NORTON SOUND...THE BERING STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...BUT THIS DIRECTION FAVORS MUCH MORE MOVEMENT OF SEA WATER INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES RAISING THE WATER LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE TIDES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SO FAR: BUCKLAND........56 MPH AT 316AM WED CAPE LISBURNE...81 MPH AT 700AM WED CAPE ROMANZOF...60 MPH AT 300AM WED DEERING.........61 MPH AT 319AM WED EMMONAK.........62 MPH AT 1100PM TUE GAMBELL.........74 MPH AT 600PM TUE GOLOVIN.........64 MPH AT 1200AM WED KIANA...........54 MPH AT 715AM WED KIVALINA........71 MPH AT 323AM WED KOTZEBUE........74 MPH AT 600AM WED KOYUK...........41 MPH AT 800AM WED MARSHALL........64 MPH AT 1100PM TUE NOATAK..........62 MPH AT 1036AM WED NOME............61 MPH AT 900PM TUE NOORVIK.........67 MPH AT 423AM WED POINT HOPE......78 MPH AT 500AM WED RED DOG MINE....48 MPH AT 935AM WED SAINT MARYS.....61 MPH AT 900PM TUE ST MICHAEL......68 MPH AT 1200AM WED SAVOONGA........76 MPH AT 700PM TUE SCAMMON BAY.....72 MPH AT 800PM TUE SHAKTOOLIK......64 MPH AT 115AM WED SHISHMAREF......57 MPH AT 1216AM WED SHUNGNAK........69 MPH AT 900AM WED TELLER..........71 MPH AT 600AM WED TIN CITY........85 MPH AT 1200AM WED UNALAKLEET......66 MPH AT 1200AM WED WALES...........89 MPH AT 142AM WED
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Global Warming melted the sea ice cover, so the dog can no longer run directly across the ice to fetch the newspaper, but must run and swim a much longer course through the islands to fetch the newspaper with Seth Borenstein’s articles. Poor pooch gets all pooped out and must use the newspaper with Seth Borenstein’s articles to keep the porch clean.
Knowing nothing about AGW I was driving home one night circa 2004 listening to a non BBC radio station when a scientist was being interviewed regarding the climate (think it may have been Prof Moerner). He took the whole nonsense apart including claims about sea levels which I gather was his field of expertise. He finished by saying that the solar physicists were predicting we would head into a very cold period mid-century, similar to the Maunder Minimum experienced in the 1500’s. He went on to say that the scientific community would begin to change it’s mind on AGW around 2007 (it was the change in the sun cycle…not that I knew)
Everything that was forecasted by this professor has come to pass.
Yes. Notice how Seth Borenstein has that whole Joseph Stalin and/or Leon Trotsky sort of look going on…the mustache, hair, political ideaoloy, progressive post-normal science in the service of the proletariat and its enlightened leadership cohort. Style, or substance?
My wife tells me of the wild storm that devastated Holland during her childhood in the 1950s (1953). In fact wild storms have been recorded in the North Sea for centuries.
But if one wants an authoritative perspective on the great storms of history, one must defer to Jim.
“…the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.”
Funny… I thought we were experiencing Anthropogenic Global Cooling and perhaps even a new ice age in the 70’s (caused by manmade particulate aerosols) as there was a demonstrable cooling phase between the years 1940-80….
That time frame also coincided with a large increase of manmade CO2 emissions, yet there wasn’t any warming during that period. Now apparently, there was warming since the mid-1960’s, which coincides with increased weather severity, but even that assertion doesn’t seem to match empiric data available…
It gets so confusing trying to keep all the stories straight…
I am sorry to see that Dr. Masters has entered the realm of the twighlight zone.
Ya know, you can tell a lie a 1,000 times, and it is still a lie, but in the twightlight zone it has overbearing truth. Rod, where are you when we need you. You have to let these poor folks have control of their tv’s and minds again. Otherwise, those of us who live in reality will continue to be bombarded with this nonsense.