UPDATE: Allison Rogers, Miss Rhode Island 2006, responds below
UPDATE2: Paul Higgins, who also appears in the video, responds in comments here 2011/09/20 at 6:31 am
Because, well, Miss Florida wasn’t available.
Our friend Ecotretas writes: It is rising…
Climate Reality has had some good moments. Like the moment below, where Paul Higgins, Associate Director of the American Meteorological Society Policy Program tries to answer some pretty easy questions. The first one is how much has the sea level risen in the past 50 years? And how much is it expected to rise in the next 50 years? Easy to get the numbers, as it has risen about 17 cm in the 20th century, so a good reply would be half of that, or about 8.5 cm. And if it is rising at 3 mm/year now, and it is not accelerating, it would rise 15 cm in the next 50 years, less than half a foot…
Higgins didn’t have a clue, but suggested that in the next 50 years it would be in the neighborhood of less than half a meter. Gosh, when scientists don’t have a clue, then the priests just jump in. Meet Allison Rogers, former Executive Director from Green the Capitol. Who is this cute girl, I thought? Well, like she was presented before, she has a degree in Religion and was Miss Rhode Island 2006! These beautiful girls just say whatever they hear, and for her, the sea level can go up 39 feet, well you know because all that ice from Greenland and Antarctica could just melt…
There were more questions. Higgins still didn’t know… We just can’t emit more CO2. You just have to see the video to get an idea how good this Climate Reality was… If you cannot see it below, or want a better quality, just go here, and fast-forward till 52:53
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Allison Rogers, Miss Rhode Island 2006, responds in comments:
Anthony,
The source for the 39 feet reference in my response is here:
“World on the Edge” – Author: Lester Brown, 2011. See page 75.
“How far might the sea level rise? Rob Young and Orrin Pilkey note in ‘The Rising Sea’ that planning panels in Rhode Island and Miami assume a minimum rise of 3.5 feet by 2100. A California planning study uses a 4.6-foot rise by century’s end. The Dutch, for their coastal planning purposes, are assuming a 2.5-foot rise for 2050.
If the Greenland ice sheet, which is well over a mile thick in places, were to melt completely, sea level would rise 23 feet. And if the West Antarctic ice sheet were to break up entirely, sea level would rise 16 feet. Together, the melting of these two ice sheets, which scientists believe to be the most vulnerable, would raise sea level 39 feet. And this does not include thermal expansion as ocean water warms, an important contributor to sea level rise.”
– Allison Rogers
Well, 4-6 inches is less than half a meter, so I guess Higgins’ answer was correct.
Allison, thanks for participating here with your citation.
Keep in mind that the 39 feet is only a wild projection, It’s a very extreme hypothetical, similar to “What if aliens came to earth”. I trust you will eventually work through your youthful propensity toward such horrific fantasies and will one day assume a more positive and realistic world view.
Allison Rogers – good to see you paying attention to the discussion on WUWT.
The key word in your position is “IF”. It’s a passport to let the imagination roam free. “If the Greenland ice sheet, which is well over a mile thick in places, were to melt completely, …”
“IF” I ignore conservation of energy, I should be able to float around the room unsupported. But I don’t, and I can’t. The idea is not even worth talking about. Neither is melting mile-thick ice sheets near the poles, or the entire break-up of WAIS.
Not such a good point on planners Allison – they don’t know more than Joe P Average. British planning authorities listened to tales of a warming climate and saved on winter salt for road treatment. Then Britian found itself importing emergency supplies of salt when the last couple of winters failed to follow the script.
I have yet to see any planning, anywhere by anybody, of what to do if the sea levels decide to drop precipitously, as in a repeat of the Little Ice Age.
Every sort of planning is afoot for only 1 face of the coin of climate.
Harbors would need dredging, as well as entrances to canals, navigable rivers and access to dry dock would be impaired.
Modern Maritime would be caught flatfooted.
Wow, I can normally stomach embarrassing TV, but this is properly toe-curling, agonising tripe of the worst sort. I had to switch off after the ‘scientist’ did his second Hindenburg impression.
Whoever he is, I should imagine he’s got his head in his hands next to an empty bottle, wishing he could wake up from this enduring nightmare he’s brought upon himself.
My father-in-law (a senior lecturer for many years) would say to this chief “You’ve fallen foul of The 5 P’s, old boy – lack of Planning and Preparation equals Piss-Poor Performance. Go and do your homework!”
As for this whole Climate Reality circus, a gargantuan crock of bovine faeces. Al Gore should wind his neck in.
To Ms. Rogers, welcome! We appreciate your participation.
Please consider, it takes two things to do anything, time and energy (ask my children, it is what they will tell you, and they will add that Gibbs free energy must be minimized). The amount of energy required to melt so much ice is beyond normal comprehension. The time involved to transfer that much energy and accomplish so much phase change is also outside our regular capacity to comprehend. Such time frames and so much energy required make discussion of sea-level rise within a human lifespan silly if we start talking in units as large as feet and meters.
Please, take the time to familiarize yourself with http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm. Dr. Scotese has one of my favorite quotes, “During the last 2 billion years the Earth’s climate has alternated between a frigid “Ice House”, like today’s world, and a steaming “Hot House”, like the world of the dinosaurs.”
His graph shows the current average global temperature to be about 286 K (~13°C). Note that the average global temperature over the time life has existed on earth (and a little longer) has generally been closer to 298 K, with an average of roughly 291 K. Given that the normal temperature of the earth runs about 5°C higher than it is now, and that it has warmed less than 1°C over the last 150 years, it hardly seems possible to suppose a catastrophe is waiting for our grandchildren. I am far more worried about the current political policies and debt policies for my children and grandchildren. Heating our homes, cooking our food, lighting our hospitals, running our factories is good. The fact that our current method of doing so produces plant food must actually be considered a bonus.
Educate yourself more and start with the writings of Willis Eschenbach here on WUWT. Aside from simply being worth reading, his discussion of the water cycle and tropical thunderstorms, and how this acts as a thermostat on earth should more than quell your fears regarding the small amount of warming that adding CO2 may account for. The earth is a ball of water. Only the sun and the water matter in the end. The rest just adjusts things up and down a little, no more than 5% according to Dr. Scotese and his graph sited above. We are in far more danger from another ice age, burying Rhode Island under unimaginably thick ice, and starving most mammals, but fortunately, geology tells us it will be millennia before that sets in again, well, at least a few centuries. Perhaps our inventive progeny will solve those problems long before then. (And they better do even more. We had better be able to get off the planet or be able to divert that rock when it comes. Another big one like a few that have hit the earth over the last several million years, and we are ALL gone.) Just the facts. And remember these facts: CO2 is as essential to life as H2O and O2. Human ingenuity and spirit has beaten the worst mother nature has been able to throw at us for tens of thousands of years. Sure, nature always wins the battles, but we always preserver and rebuild. Finally, cold kills; warmer is better—just ask the dinosaurs.
RockyRoad says:
September 15, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Don’t despair, Steve Mosher… You can always fall back on Al Gore.
(Sorry for the cheap shot, Steve, but I considered as an alternative Dr. “Civil Disobedience” Hansen, Michael “I’m not a crook; stay outta my emails” Mann, and Phil “Lost Data” Jones, among others. You should probably be happy with Ms. Road Island (did I miss-spell that correctly?) and this generic climsci scientist–at least they’re not swearing at the audience.)
Oh, the mirthful humanity…..
Robroy says:September 16, 2011 at 8:09 am
I Know how to spell knew. I just blew it. Yes, you all can blame the bong.
If you knew what the new gnu knew, you’ld be alright.
Is “you’ld” a contraction for ‘you all would’? Being a northern boy I may have missed out on a regional colloquialism.
It’s good for Miss Rhode Island 2006 to find out about WUWT, and participate. From the logs of my blog, timing and geographical location, she also visited mine… What an honor!
I hope she will continue reading. Maybe she’ll be a skeptic soon, but that will only happen if she is intelligent. Given she has a degree in Religion and a pageant title, I’ll doubt she is.
But I also have faith 😉
Oh good grief, so we’ve sunk so low as mocking a young person’s interest in religion? Shame on you all, especially Anthony for selectively setting the stage for making fun of the person rather than talking about the facts.
But since it seems to be more important to you to talk down to a lovely lady, here’s a couple other credentials you missed: Her religion degree and her Masters in Education was from Harvard. She’s also studying Studying National Security Strategy at the Naval War College.
She’s obviously an intelligent person with a diverse background. Plus judging from her reply, she has more class than you and no need to defend herself from your personal attacks.
Which is more than I can say for myself. I think y’all are pathetic.
It looks like she only drove by to drop in an excuse for her ignorance; a reference to some hypothetical “what if” sea level numbers.
Apparently she did not stick around long enough to discuss or learn something new.
Hi Anthony,
Thanks for providing your readers with the link to the video of my comments during the Tonga panel of the Climate Reality Project. I’m happy that my remarks are getting attention and appreciate your help bringing traffic to the video.
Some readers of this blog might be interested to see what I had to say on the other panels I was part of. They’re all available in their entirety here: http://climaterealityproject.org/video/.
I was on these six panels:
Victoria (the panel starts at 43 minutes, 20 seconds)
Tonga (starting at 34 min, 03 sec)
Aukland (starting at 17min, 30 sec)
Solomon Islands (starting at 39 min, 28 sec)
London (starting at 39 min, 04 sec)
Husavik (starting at 35 min, 50 sec)
Those who watch will see that I made four main points (all based on comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence): 1) climate is changing, 2) humans are causing climate change, 3) human caused climate change poses considerable risk to human society, and 4) basic economic principles suggest that putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions would bring net economic benefits to society.
Best wishes,
Paul Higgins
Hi Anthony,
I see you posted Allison Rogers response up high next to yours. That was nice of you. Might you be willing to do the same with mine? (Not this one but my response from 6:31 am today).
Best wishes,
Paul Higgins
REPLY: Happy to do so, post updated with a link to your comments – Anthony
Thanks for the link Anthony.
Paul