As we reported on WUWT on August 24th, La Niña is now officially “back” with this press release from NOAA. Hopefully NOAAwatch will finally move the ENSO meter they produce (in the WUWT sidebar) from neutral to something that reflects the press release.
UPDATE: Commenter ChrisY adds:
James “Handcuffs” Hansen ‘nails’ another one of his climate predictions that he made in March 2011.
“Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.”
Time to hoist the “Mission Accomplished” banner in front of the NASA GISS building.
See also Bob Tisdale’s response.
Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622, ext. 121 September 8, 2011
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back
La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.
NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”
Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.
The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.
La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.
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Gosh,
That probably means that the Horn of Africa will not get the promised IPCC rainfall.
A lot of people is dying, and many more are going to die there.
And bad IPCC projections just made it worse:
http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2011/09/horngate.html
Ecotretas
The report states that exreme weather is on the rise. Is that actually accurate?
caused by CO2 ?
Hmm you mean like, say, the 1950’s?
James “Handcuffs” Hansen ‘nails’ another one of his climate predictions that he made in March 2011.
“Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.”
Time to hoist the “Mission Accomplished” banner in front of the NASA GISS building.
On the one hand they state that La NIna ‘results from the interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere’ and then say it contributes to extreme weather around the globe. The description seems like a covariance, how does it contribute to anything as opposed to being a result of many dynamics and therefore an indictor of what’s to come?
La Nina watch? OK, it is a meteorological phenomenon. But Hardly one that is threatening life and property in and of itself. Strange terms.
It is back although 2nd Niña parts were never as strongs as 1st.
http://weatheredge.blogspot.com/2011/09/la-nina-forecast.html
“La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”
Emphasis added. I have not done the seasonal break downs, but unless the sign of the effect reverses strongly in the non-winter months in that region, I’ve found typically above average temps during La Nina years in that region:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b370/gatemaster99/IEILaNinaTemp.png
No mention seems to be made of the fact that the Entire East Coast tends to be warm during La Nina years, not just southern states, or the fact that some of the Coastal Southwest, not just Pacific Northwest, is colder than normal during La Nina years. NOAA is inaccurately describing the La Nina pattern as far as I can tell. I have used La Nina years that rank in the top twenty when adjusted for long term variation and changing variances. What years do they used for comparisons to get their patterns? I use ENSO years going back to 1895, which is when the US data for temperature and precipitation NOAA publishes starts.
“La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.”
This seems more accurate, for the most part:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b370/gatemaster99/IEILaNinaPrecip.png
However, I note a few differences:
When they say dry in the Southern US, this is mainly true of those climate divisions which hug the southern boundaries of the US. Tennessee and Kentucky are “Southern” (one even old Confederacy!) but are if anything wet, not dry. Also, the dry conditions tend to extend somewhat into the plains states North of Texas. By far the strongest relationship of precipitation to ENSO is found in Southern Texas and South Florida (where I live 🙁 ) however. Wet conditions also cover much of the Coast Mid-Atlantic, and substantial parts of New England, except for Massachusetts.
Ferd says: September 8, 2011 at 10:45 am
The report states that exreme weather is on the rise. Is that actually accurate?
The U.S. has had 10 extreme weather events with 2 billion plus costs of damages so far in 2011. The previous record was 9, tied once. That’s what I heard on MSNBC, someone correct me if I’m wrong. This sure isn’t good news. The moves up or down have become larger since 2007. So this move down may not bottom for a while. Could even go deeper than the last bottom.
Dear Anthony, I am proud to have been in consensus with you about the returning La Niña in August – such a consensus only makes sense is we actually analyze these things impartially and kind of independently.
And I am even prouder that my text “La Niña seems to be returning” was posted on August 23rd, a day before yours haha:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/la-nina-conditions-seem-to-be-returning.html
Hansen gets his usual grade, F.
“Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.” James “Jimbo” Hansen, 2011.
Yet another high quality Climate Product ™ from NASA/GISS 🙂
Ocean levels to continue to fall?…..
“Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.”
===========
1) Define “extreme weather”.
2) Show me some data to support the claim: “extreme weather is on the rise”.
3) I have a brand new snow shovel, 4×4 SUV, 150 foot high-tension tower/lightning rod within about 130 feet of my home, and flood waters have stayed 6-8 feet below my elevation for the past 48 years. Tornadoes are a cause for concern, but I have a crawlspace.
I have at least 4 radar/weather websites bookmarked which I check religiously, lest I miss some exciting weather.
Does this qualify me to be part of your “Weather Ready Nation” ?
Please ?
Isn’t this an 11 year cycle, and didn’t we just have an El Nino contributing to GISS’s record for 2010?
That will make 3 out of the past 5 winters feature a big La Nina. All of the preliminary winter forecasts released so far are for an exceptionally cold, snowy winter in the Northwest, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. The highlights of the last 4 winters (the coldest winter in 30 years last year, heavy snow all years, 2nd place 71% Snow cover in U.S. last year, -50F temperatures, frequent freezing down to Mexica and Florida, ice dams on roofs, wind, blizzards, etc.) will continue this winter? Deep solar minimum continues to create a cooling Earth, and natural 30 year Ocean cycles have moved to the downward temperature trend. Next in the news: 600 mb. temperatures are scary cold.
Twiggy says: “On the one hand they state that La NIna ‘results from the interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere’ and then say it contributes to extreme weather around the globe. The description seems like a covariance, how does it contribute to anything as opposed to being a result of many dynamics and therefore an indictor of what’s to come?”
There are many persons who misunderstand ENSO and trreat it as an index, including some climate scientists. It is a process. Refer to:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/enso-indices-do-not-represent-the-process-of-enso-or-its-impact-on-global-temperature/
La Niña is back, although 2nd Niñas are less strong than 1st ones!!!
http://weatheredge.blogspot.com/2011/09/la-nina-forecast.html
Glad NOAA decided to catch up to the rest of us.
Though we’re in La Nina territory, this will be a mild one IF the trade winds don’t pick up and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) doesn’t reach the heights of earlier this year. Currently it’s just above neutral.
If the winds do pick up, we’re in for another strong one.
Usually during La Ninas, warm Pacific waters are pushed up against the coasts of Australia and Papua New Guinea. Currently there is very little warm water near the Aust. Coast. A strong La Nina accompanied by strong trade winds may push cooler waters through to the Indian Ocean.
No chance of an El Nino now until at least the middle of January 2012
My opinion only
I gues they wont mention this on 24 hours of reality
That sidebar meter isn’t likely to change anytime soon, at least not if it’s based on the CPC’s ONI, which came out this week pegged at 0.0 for a second month in a row; won’t be another update to the ONI until October. The weekly values are still shifting from neutral to negative:
Niño 4 …… -0.2°C
Niño 3.4 … -0.6°C
Niño 3 …… -0.5°C
Niño 1+2 .. -0.7°C
The monthly values, posted at the beginning of each month for the preceding three month intervals are:
Jul … -0.2
Aug .. 0.0
Sep .. 0.0
Again, this is all thrashed out in:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Yes, indeed, El Ninny is back. Too bad they won’t keep him in the Graybar Hotel.
“La Nina is a naturally occurring phenomena”
Is that because no one has yet managed to link it to CO2?
Why can’t climate change also be a naturally occurring phenomena?
>> Ed Mertin says:
September 8, 2011 at 12:06 pm
That’s what I heard on MSNBC, someone correct me if I’m wrong. <<
Listening to MSNBC is very very wrong.
Handcuffs Hansen! Too funny and made my day