At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Maybe not a repeat of 1938 then?
Did they have global warming then?
I should have added that all these forecasts might as well be in Chinese as far as my understanding goes. I took out my ability to think rationally back in the 70’s…
I will be very interested to see what Ryan thinks.
So I am wondering whether it is the cold front or the water temperature which at work in weakening the storm.
Doug in Seattle
Me too. I see the sea temps are still quite ideal, and all things being equal this should have been a monster. Until someone comes up with a better explanation as to why Irene is looking to be more of a big, wet kiss, I will go on thinking that we simply have nowhere near enough knowledge of what makes the atmosphere tick.
Saturday morning headlines … “Irene Fizzles” ???
Interesting quote from the NHC discussion issued at 5pm EST:
It’s a strange one, albeit a relief, as to why. The SST maps don’t suggest much cold water upwelling, and Irene’s been moving at enough of a rate to avoid this happening. Certainly no dry air has made it to the core to judge by the water vapour satellite loops, despite there being plenty of it to Irene’s west. SSTs along the path have been plenty warm enough to feed her too. it’s not even as though Irene touched upon the very shallow waters of the central Bahamas, as the core stayed over the deep stuff on the Atlantic fringe between island hops. Maybe that eyewall replacement just didn’t fully complete?
Regarding the false start of TD10, I think I’d have preferred it to have developed further, as it then would’ve been pulled further north and east and petered out over the high seas. If it lies low for a week or so, it’s likely to drift a bit north of west as a tropical wave, so it’s perhaps not impossible it’ll get a second chance of development in a location where it could do some damage.
Good luck to those still on the Outer Banks. Looks like you’re already getting some serious squalls at the mo.
Latest radar loop for Moorhead seems to show an intact eye and very strong circulation, fetching a vast area of the sea surface. Being that it’s a glancing blow, with the storm skittering up the coast, the concept of “front right quadrant” does not apply, the worst incident winds and surge are actually going to be in the front left quadrant / NW portion of the storm. There is surely a massive pile up of water coursing into the sounds through the various passes at this time. And the tide is rising, by my reckoning.
I believe what’s weakened it has been the high to its SSW. There are no feeder bands and that side of the storm. Meanwhile, look at the growing feeder bands on the NNE side. It’s feeding on both the immediate warmth and moisture from the sea surface as well as the ample low level moisture left from the wetter than normal summer conditions from DC north east ward. I think Joe B may be right, it may be stronger off the Mid Atlantic than it has been for the past day or so.
FYI:
http://www.weather.gov/ghls/php/ghls_index.php?sid=mhx&threat=coastal
The mayor’s Bloomberg financial news site regularly features absurd alarmist stories. It’s likely that his evacuation order was motivated by his deeply held greenie-wienie beliefs. What a jackass. I’m glad he over-reacted–it illustrates the alarmists’ Chicken Little mindset.
A long night has begun:
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
909 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT
* AT 902 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENGELHARD…MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40
MPH. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SWAN
QUARTER.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ENGELHARD…MIDDLETOWN…
LAKE LANDING…NEBRASKA…
FAIRFIELD…
PAMLICO BEACH…
FYI: Morehead long range base reflectivity loop – look at the strong cells causing the twisters. In a few hours, this will be happening in Hampton Roads as well. Also, it appears the eyewall has regenerated:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Setting aside all this trivial stuff about trashed buildings and endangered lives for a moment, lets talk about the really important things. Like what effect the remnants of Irene will have on Arctic ice levels.
With the resulting strong and unusually warm winds Irene will bring to the Arctic in a weeks time, I’d expect ice levels there to take a bit of a dip. Note that with ice levels currently closely tracking the record low in 2007, a bit of a dip is all we’d need to set a new record low ice level.
TrueNorthist said: I took out my ability to think rationally back in the 70′s…
Ha! That’s pretty funny. I remember doing some of that in the late 70’s but not enough to do long lasting damage. However, I could be deceiving myself about that.
Ian H says:
August 26, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Setting aside all this trivial stuff about trashed buildings and endangered lives for a moment, lets talk about the really important things. Like what effect the remnants of Irene will have on Arctic ice levels.
With the resulting strong and unusually warm winds Irene will bring to the Arctic in a weeks time, I’d expect ice levels there to take a bit of a dip. Note that with ice levels currently closely tracking the record low in 2007, a bit of a dip is all we’d need to set a new record low ice level.
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However, in the longitudes closest to the Date Line, the ice edge has already begun its advance.
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
Some more tornadoes on the ground NE of Wilmington (NC).
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
============================================
Have you ever seen the inundation map for a Category 2 or even Category 1 storm, striking Long Island from the SSE? It’s not a trivial thing for this to happen in such a densely populated region. Granted this is not as bad as a Cat 3 or above storm making a direct hit on NYC but this could turn out plenty bad. It’s already plenty bad for NC, happening real time, now.
More tornadoes on the ground – near Greenville.
So far no damage reported due to tornadoes. Looking at detailed radar for NC looks like most of them have touched down in the woods and farmland, not in populated areas. That having been said, the outer bands have arrived at Hampton Roads. There are returns showing off of Chincoteague.
A couple of robust cells have popped up nearly atop Cape Hatteras. They are moving rapidly NW. Anyone on a line NW from the Cape toward the VA border should be preparing to take cover.
It’s fizzling out, per NWS at 11:00 pm EDT, see below: (note, Fizzle is an American slang term for diminishing in intensity or force).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Where the table shows time, date, position in Lat and Long, max wind speed in knots and mph.
INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
More of a fizzler, not a behemoth. This is all good, from the perspective of property damage and population deaths and injury.
It was a warm sunny day in NE NC and SE VA, until the cloud shield moved in. As the bands come ashore, lines of thunderstorms are lighting up the radar. One such line has suddenly popped up with a WSW-ENE orientation, heading into Hampton Roads.
@SteveSadlov
I think your knee jerk reaction responses is completely valid.
Many of us have developed a very thick skin to almost any type of headline that
refers to a weather event that sounds even remotely like the ‘it’s worse than we thought’ mantra.
Having said that, I would just like to say to those of you out on the east coast that aren’t concerned, enjoy the cool breeze and showers.
Next up, Delmarva.
(Note – I am definitely not on the East Coast)