At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
I just saw on Drudge that Bloomberg is ordering 300,000 New Yorkers to flee the hurricane. I also heard on the news that much of the public transit system (forget the major city) is going to be closed down, a first it said.
Seems to me they are trying to make this into a bigger deal than what it might be.
Is it just me (a Brit living in England), or does anyone else think that Irene is getting hyped into a bigger deal than it really is, perhaps because it’s about the only hurricane there has been for two years, and the warmists are desperate for something to scare people with?
Also, I read somewhere that it’s very unusual (and therefore scary) for hurricanes to track this far east into the Atlantic. I’m not a big hurricane-watcher, but I thought that an awful lot of hurricanes track eastward up the US coast, and then out over the Atlantic where they eventually arrive up at dear old Blighty. We get about one a week, as best I can figure.
Too late for this one, but is there any mileage in a controlled nuclear explosion at selected height to diffuse hurricane pattern at earlier stage? I know it’s a horrible suggestion.
Tides for East 41st Street, New York City starting with August 25, 2011.
Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible
F 26 Low 1:26 PM 0.5
F 26 High 7:45 PM 5.1
Sa 27 Low 2:14 AM 0.1 _ 6:18 AM Rise 4:29 AM 6
Sa 27 High 8:25 AM _ 4.7 _ 7:37 PM Set 6:28 PM
Sa 27 Low 2:18 PM _ 0.1
Sa 27 High 8:33 PM _ 5.3
Su 28 Low 3:00 AM _ -0.2 _ 6:19 AM Rise 5:42 AM 2
Su 28 High 9:10 AM _ 5.0 _ 7:35 PM Set 7:01 PM
Su 28 Low 3:10 PM _ -0.1
Su 28 High 9:19 PM _ 5.5
http://www.saltwatertides.com/cgi-local/newyork.cgi
Sunday morning high tide might be problematic for NYC
Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.
Matt Lynch: ” tossing them around like they were toys.”
They’re just swaying gently from side to side!
LOL! that’s the best it could do? Bring it on!
I’m amazed at the gaggle of hopeful media, standing with their cameras trained on the beaches, praying for the worst. After mis-informing the public about how to react to this moderate threat, they’ll wonder why it is that they are ignored when a real NATURAL threat comes along.
The North Carolina Barrier Islands look like they are going to take a hit. Gee that’s never happened before! A lot of areas will see major rainfall (too bad this one hadn’t headed into the Gulf and strengthened to Cat 3 before moving into central Texas). Of course, anyone within reach of a tidal surge should get to higher ground. There are both benefits and costs to living that close to sea level. Always have been, always will be. Too bad we can’t sue God when this happens.
I have to laugh at the Warmistas. Where’s the category 4 Superstorm slamming into New York City and killing thousands? The media and the Warmista pseudo scientists can only stand by with their cameras and hope.
Matt Lynch,
I wasn’t the least bit impressed by that video – assuming you linked the correct one.
Everyone else – does anyone actually believe that Irene ever really made it to Cat 3, for the first major hurricane of the season?? If you look at the NHC numbered discussions, there’s a suspicious lack of sea-level wind measurements and “we’ll stick with an initial [meaning current] intensity of 100Kts while we check out the aircraft measurements”… There was one where the aircraft measured 99kts at some altitude (700mb I think) and they allowed that to pass for 100kts at sea level! I’m not convinced…
Rich.
While Irene is following the track predicted days ago quite nicely, the intensity hasn’t quite ramped up to the feared Cat 4. Now it lookes like Irene will come into NC and up the coast as a Cat 1 hurricane. That seems to be a sympton of this hurricane season, where it took until “I”, as in eye-rene, to get a full hurricane. Eight tropical storms, from Arlene to Harvey, and all of them losers.
So there’s something in the air that’s keeping the intensities down, and I bet it’s not CO2.
Forecasting intensity has always been harder than predicting the track. They’ve called the path of Irene really well so far. Given that path up the bogs and bays from NC to NY, it’s a real good thing the weakening will save the day.
at this type is is PURE HYPE, the storm is weakening and moving into VERY DRY air…..it also is jogging EAST now and could NOT make any landfall in the USA.
those saying it will be a huge storm hitting NYC at 7PM sunday are without a clue….and are going to cause harm later on, when a real storm is coming the people wont believe it after the HYPE on this one.
There are amphibious armored vehicles driving toward Moffett Federal Airfield (near SF, CA) no doubt to be flown back East to deal with rescues.
BTW – Joe B is on the radio today. He is depicting a fairly impactful event. The issue is, millions of people living on what used to be swampy coastal plains and barrier islands all along the track. If the models ring true, the eye will ultimately move NNE along the coast or just inland, between I-95 and the beach. That means lots of people and very built up places being impacted. Although we normally call the Midwest America’s heartland, from the stand point of a center of gravity in terms of sheer concentration the East Coast from DC up to New England is a heartland of sorts. This is going to be a bad deal.
@ur momisugly Matt Lynch
Some of those waves must have been nearly 3 feet high.
I guess you don’t sail much.
Irene continues to weaken, and the SHIPS Intensity model initialized at 5PM EDT has top winds of 50mph in 48 hours, about the time it will be impacting Long Island. My guess is Irene will be less a threat to New England than a lot of wintertime Nor’ Easters.
Matt Lynch says:
August 26, 2011 at 1:26 pm
“Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.”
I’ve seen worse in the mediterranean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bora_(wind)
Oldie but goodie: click
I understand the President has ordered a state of panic, and the Mayor of New York has instructed citizens to “run for the hills!” Fox News has blown a gasket, and are predicting famine, pestilence and a general breakdown of social cohesion. Lets face it; according to those in power, the world as we know it is doomed.
Aren’t you glad such sane heads are keeping watch over us all?
This might be an interesting buoy to watch:
Current wave height, 24 feet.
Peak gust, 56.3 kts.
Pressure tendency, -0.24 in ( Falling Rapidly )
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013
Its location (41013):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml
Lotta hype here in New England. No batteries, no flashlights, no water…. thank god for the beer!
If the storm surge is over 8 feet I may have to evacuate… but I may just possibly be posting some really cool photos….. ughh.. if we have power.
Hmm, I was just wading through the NWS weather forecast hourly graphs, their track has the remnant eye brushing my home Sunday PM. Moderate wind (45-50), lotsa rain. The track likely will be further away, but maybe it’s worth trying to intercept, though I don’t like driving on tree lined streets in windy rain storms.
The water vapor image shows Irene is pulling in a chunk of dry air. That’s like cutting the storm off at its knees. The storm is big enough and weak enough so it won’t impact things a huge amount, but expect gradual weakening. I don’t think the air is really dry, at least it sure wasn’t at home this morning!
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Bill Taylor says:
August 26, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Hardly “very” dry air. NYC at 7PM? What forecast are you referring to? Irene is going to be in Concord NH then (generally regarded as part of the USA). The last couple of forecasts have sped it up a fair amount. Don’t rely on old hurricane forecasts.
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gacooke says:
August 26, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Where was the forecast for killing thousands? At the time Cat 4 was a reasonable prediction. Here’s an idea – if you’re so confident you can do better, start your own hurricane forecasting service. Do well, and you’ll, well, do well.
BTW, “The Warmista” was meant to be singular, sort of like “The Team” at UEA.
I gotta admit, last night when the pressure fell to 941 I thought FOR SURE we were looking at a cat 4. I was giving tips in to my friend in New Jersey on hurricane preparation…..now…i look stupid as hell for giving her that info. Im never gonna be a weather forecast or model again. Thanks for crying wolf Weather Channel. I never knew you went to the Fox News School of Hype and Hysteria making.
Just wondering… is there an actual eye to this thing? Seems pretty ill-defined to me. Perhaps the media is overblowing Irene
Looks like it will be a damp squib
Seen much worse seas than that often in Wellington Harbour, New Zealand
Move along folks – nothing to see here
It’s interacting with land plus a hefty dry slot got in there. That said, after grazing NC and hitting open water again, and with access to a much more moist air mass in the Mid Atlantic, it could regenerate enough to remain a problem.
This just in; From Advanced Forecasting Corp.
https://www.gplus.com/Hurricanes/Insight/The-storm-cannot-master-its-own-strength
Me, I also see this baby being knocked down substantially overnight. Some are speculating that high alt shear is “tipping” the eyewall over, and Irene pretty much will fizzle to a cat 1 or tropical storm by morning.