At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
And with the fall in pressure we finally have a proper eye appearing on the 0015 UTC NHC infrared image, rather than the closing of gaps in cloud bands of earlier today. If the wind shear doesn’t pick up and blow the top off it, this could be the prelude to some real ramping-up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg
Don’t worry, America, we’ll take care of that pesky hurricane for you
Sincerely,
Mr Cold Front
Canada
PS. See you in January
a) Need to be specific as to which Jim (I am _Jim and have always been so).
b) Storms only began being named in the 50’s (pointed out in my link above)
c) Pls re-read my post; I understood the question … I just didn’t want to do the research!
.
Hurricane Widget.
Not a bad name for an actual hurricane, come to think of it.
Hopefully the storm will pass just a bit further east of Hatteras than currently forecast, give NE NC some rain for the Dismal Swamp fire and leave me alone. Storms on this track can cause flooding in Hampton Roads but usually the winds are not too high as the long trek up from Hatteras slows it down a lot.
If it goes west and interacts with the front currently over the midwest we can get another Floyd, which had moderate to strong winds, lost the top of a few trees, but an awful large amount of rain. 19 inches at the closest WS to me.
Sorry _Jim, that was for Jim 😉
If you include numbers as well as names, it’s the latest in the list ever (but qualified by improved observational capability).
Category 3 status now reached; winds 115mph, central pressure 957mb. Official direction is now 300 degrees, so the turn may now be underway, in case any Floridians and Georgians were still worried about whether Irene would stubbornly maintain her path (and if Dave Springer was still hoping for a miracle – sorry Dave).
If the models are correct, it looks like New England gets it on Sunday afternoon…
I’m thinking now that Irene will remain off the coast and may brush parts of the coastline…let’s see what the models say later on today…
By the way, a great resource for hurricane information and forecasts is http://www.spaghettimodels.com. Check it out.
Looks like it’s headed for Martha’s Vineyard and then Maine.
Of course, if a climate scientist were to render a forecast, he’d have it clipping the tip of Florida and then finally making landfall on the southern coast of Lousianna.
I don’t think the ‘cane’s eye will make landfall anywhere in the USA but it certainly is going to brush up next to the East Coast.
Credit where credit is due:
“Nick Shaw says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:25 am
Why do I get the feeling this sucker will take the far eastern track and hit Martha’s Vineyard just in time to catch the last of Zero’s vacation?”
Nice call Nick –
Propososed offshore wind facilities and infrastructure (east coast US)
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/12/google-builds-to-the-jersey-shore/
Track of Hurricane Irene…
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
wow global warming in action told ya sarc
Wherever it goes, its field of storm-force winds is very nearly as broad as that of a certain other storm six years ago.
Spring Point airport on Acklins Island about to take a direct hit. Be interesting to see the METAR data for there right now…
Could someone explain what forces suggest Irene will head up the East Coast? I can understand the forecasting showing a gradual movement further from the coast as time has elapsed, but I don’t understand the basis for all the models forecasting an east coast path, rather than an entry into the Gulf, either over FL or by scooting through the Straits of Florida.
Watching the GOES NW Atlantic satellite (@ur momisugly NOAA; water vapor loop), Irene had been forecasted to head to the seam in the wind patterns that had been centered over GA/SC but appears to have shifted weakly to the south over FL over the last eight hours or so but looks like it may shift back to the north again. There’s been no notable shift in Irene’s trajectory, which seems to match up with wind patterns surrounding it (if you click on the HDW-High, -mid, & -low) but if those are the major factors, then it seems that continuing west may be just as likely as curling north. If upper level wind patterns are a predominant factor, the upper level pattern map at Spaghetti Models, wouldn’t that show favor for a westerly track over curling north?
I understand the Coriolis effect’s bias for curling north, but is that enough to offset the westerly wind patterns over the states which, right now, appear to be plugging/shunting Irene’s movement north while effectively offering a smooth escape/void to travel west?
What am I not taking into account or not looking at?
OT – I follow the sea ice page almost everyday because I believe it’s the only thing warmists have left in their arsenal. But what I don’t see is a margin of error on there. Someone who knows better than me, please inform me.
Earth had a synod conjunction with Neptune on the 22nd the Moon is maximum North on the 23rd, Irene has passed TS strength as a result of the Neptune conjunction, and is making the turn to the North, associated with the Lunar maximum North position.
This is the same timing as when Katrina made landfall, correlation is not causation unless it causes things to be predictable like this. Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere not only create the meridional flow surges that become hurricanes, but the overall global circulation patterns as well. With the additional ionizational input from the Neptune conjunction into the global circuit there is enough energy to form something stronger than a TS or H1 or H2, which is all the Lunar effect can manage on its own.
“Dusty says:
August 24, 2011 at 7:57 am
Could someone explain what forces suggest Irene will head up the East Coast? ”
This map might show the reason. Notice the corridor of low pressure pointing North just off the coast of North Carolina. That should pull Irene towards it and that area of high pressure centered near the intersections of South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee will act like a barricade.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/tgsfc1.gif
Michael Tobis says: “The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by cutting our population 80%, unfortunately.”
I presume you’re volunteering to lead the way with yourself….
Prayer
I think its goim\ng to set over the bahamas, the wave will pass, and it will suck right up near the gulf….they have been wrong before…remember Charlie, AND Katrina? Just have a feeling.
Gary Swift says:
August 24, 2011 at 9:17 am
This map might show the reason. Notice the corridor of low pressure pointing North just off the coast of North Carolina. That should pull Irene towards it and that area of high pressure centered near the intersections of South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee will act like a barricade.
——–
Seems possible. Is there an update for that gif, Gary? The two (blocking) highs you note had moved east earlier and now they are gone (on the NOAA satellite loops) , although the frontal line hasn’t changed much.
Checking Spaghetti models a couple of times this afternoon, it appears they’ve updated the models ; most are still holding to the curvature but they have all slide west at its start to keep up with the path of Irene, as Irene does not want to curve yet. Both those various tracks and the NOAA track seem to be running out of room to curve, to the point that Irene will have to make a 90 degree turn if she doesn’t start soon.
Irene’s curving now, and also may be starting an eyewall replacement. The ECMWF model is putting her further west later in the piece now though, so some sort of landfall looks more likely. Hopefully it will be as far north as possible to give cooler seas a good chance to weaken her (and maybe increased shear a chance to cut her up a bit).
Starting to wonder what the system SW of the Cape Verde islands might serve up. If the general synoptic pattern doesn’t change much, it might live a life similar to Irene’s, though it’s too early for us mortals to know at this stage. Ryan, Joe(s), Piers, any thoughts?
I do hope the computers and ensembles have accurately forecast Irene’s path. If Irene doesn’t turn Thursday as forecast, the round of golf I’ve booked Friday morning north of Tampa might be less than pleasant.
Well, it does look like Irene is headed our way (New England). Looks like landfall in NJ, CT, RI, MA on Sunday. Here in NH, we’re going to get LOTS of rain…