At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Problem is the boy’s cried wolf now, what happens next time?
I think some of the Americans may have gone a bit OTT about Irene. Its now windier in Scotland but we don’t have wall to wall news about it.
I am very glad that Irene ended up being an anomalous storm that defied prediction. It certainly had all of the characteristics and conditions all lined up for a real monster. 950 mb is awfully scary, and it is understandable that we should have taken all steps possible to prepare for the worst. However, every once in a while something comes along that shows us all that we aren’t perfect, and that we still can make honest mistakes. Stuff like that happens, and most folks will understand that. But the political and media grandstanding of the past few days has gone well beyond anything even resembling a reasonable response. In their desperation to attract viewers the media has behaved in a shameless and disgraceful manner. Politicians of all stripes have debased themselves in a desperate attempt to use Irene to advance their own popularity. How on earth did we let these reprehensible reprobates get where they are? And are we going to ever do something about it?
Gary D says:
“Prepare for the worst – hope for the best. My thought is everything worked very well. People were well prepared, emergency management was well prepared, and everthing went smoothly. What’s wrong with that?”
Here’s what’s wrong with that:
New York City probably lost at least one day’s worth of economic output as a result of the Mayor’s decision to shut the city down and possibly more since it is unlikely the city’s transport system will be back in operation for Monday morning’s commute. Since nearly 4,000,000 people work in the city and since the number of employed in the US is about 140 million, then it would be reasonable to estimate that NYC’s economic output is between 3% and 4% of US GDP. Since US GDP is about $15 trillion, then NYC’s annual GDP is somewhere between $450 billion and $600 billion. Thus, the loss of only one day’s economic output in NYC would be between $1.25 billion and $1.65 billion. The city was essentially shut down from noon on Saturday and probably won’t be back in full swing until sometime on Monday. That’s two full days but let’s be conservative and say one day’s output was lost.
The question is, was more than $1 billion in damages avoided by shutting the city down? Did the evacuation of 370,000 people (if anyway near that many actually paid attention to Bloomberg’s pronouncement) save even one life? Was even a single injury avoided? It’s more likely that the elderly and the sick suffered more from the efforts to “save” them than if they had simply stayed put. In the end, the city experienced a heavy overnight rain with some strong winds with the storm nearly over as people woke up on Sunday morning.
So at least $1 billion of economic activity was lost in NYC with no discernible benefit either in lives or in property. For a businessman worth more than a billion dollars, Michael Bloomberg’s decision looks more like political grandstanding rather than the action of a leader carefully weighing the costs and benefits of his actions.
Read this and laugh:
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/08/hurricane_watch_2011_the_wrath_2.html
Note that there is a picture of a guy kayaking in Manhattan. The location given for the pic is the vicinity of West Broadway and Grand Street in Soho. Anyone familiar with that part of Manhattan knows that that the area around that intersection is especially low lying. One can also see that the water is only a few inches deep so the flooding was probably very localized and probably didn’t last very long. In other words, it’s a staged picture.
Looks like Nanny Bloomie stepped in Irene’s Diaper….
The fact that now NOAA has brought up budget cut issues after this storm. Makes me believe they over-hyped this storm ON PURPOSE all for budget issues.
“Now might be a good time for Republicans to rethink their proposal to cut 30% from the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) – the agency responsible for tracking hurricanes. Noaa says the Republican cuts will destroy its ability to warn of hurricanes 5 or 10 days out. That’s crucial lead time to carry out the preparations and evacuations we’ve been seeing this weekend with Hurricane Irene.”
I can see Bloomberg getting it in the neck from many quarters if the subway isn’t running tomorrow morning (and it doesn’t sound like it will be).
John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42 am
Perhaps on the next storm (we might not have to wait long!) there should be no official forecasts or they all should include an +/- 2 standard deviation error range. Then we can see how well that works!
Why won’t NYC’s transit system be back in operation?
Ric Werme says:
“Why won’t NYC’s transit system be back in operation?”
This quote from the NY TImes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/nyregion/new-york-expects-lengthy-recovery-of-transit-system.html?hp
“New York City’s public transportation system remained paralyzed on Sunday afternoon even after Hurricane Irene moved away from the city, and the authorities expected a lengthy recovery that would most likely leave many commuters stranded on Monday morning. “
Lord help us if Irene touches the southern tip of Greenland and a few extra icebergs calve off. You see, that’ll be worse than they thought.
Re: John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42
Are you saying this was just another summer thunderstorm, and that nothing serious happened today?
No, a catastrophe didn’t occur, but there was certainly a good chance that one might, and some very serious, widespread damage has occurred. So fortunately, and I do mean fortunately, things turned out better than they could have, but there was still every reason for caution.
Perhaps this is another case of Jonah’s dilemma, no matter what you do you are going to wind up losing.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119034422671234942.html
The MTA could have kept the transit system running on reduced schedules. There were some pictures of tunnels blocked by debris and in these cases, the above-ground elevated sections would have been shut down. Where service was down, buses could have been pressed into service to provide shuttle service to stations still operating. Parked trains could have been moved from low lying areas to more secure locations.
One major concern was that the East River subway tunnels would flood. Well, then operate shuttle buses from the outer boroughs into Manhattan via bridges and highway tunnels at the height of the storm (which was, incidentally overnight as it turned out). One would expect that the MTA would have had contingency plans in case of a hurricane.
Instead, the entire transit system, including all buses, was shut down and all vehicles parked and restoring service will take time. In the meantime, there is no train or bus service in a city largely dependent on mass transit. For transit users, this situation is no different than if the transit workers went out on strike for two days.
OK. Here in the path of Irene in western New Hampshire. As of 4 PM. We’ve received lots of rain this morning and early afternoon. Some flash flooding in the area. No winds to speak of (maybe a few brief gusts of about 30 mph). That’ s right – NO WIND. What the heck? I brought in all my yard items last night. To call this a tropical storm is a s-t-r-e-t-c-h. Anyway, power’s been on all day. Nothing unusual (except the rainfall amounts). That is all :^)
John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42 am
“New York City probably lost at least one day’s worth of economic output as a result of the Mayor’s decision to shut the city down and possibly more since it is unlikely the city’s transport system will be back in operation for Monday morning’s commute. Since nearly 4,000,000 people work in the city and since the number of employed in the US is about 140 million, then it would be reasonable to estimate that NYC’s economic output is between 3% and 4% of US GDP. ”
Yabbut for every banker and broker leech that can’t get to work on Wall Street economic output rises from about 100,000 people outside the city who actually produce the things like corn and cars and computers and concrete that make up GDP. No doubt it’s a net benefit.
@ur momisugly Ric & Kevin,
Thanks guys, I don’t know if you can tell from the tone of my question that I thought all the fuss an overeaction. But that’s just me, hating every moment that “the authorities” use to “tell us” what to do, when, if educated and knowledgable, we’re quite capable of making rational judgements in our own, and family’s behalf.
See this is what’s great about the skeptics camp, which is really just people asking questions. No one gives a rats clacker about your particular philosophical or ideological bent. Just give you straight facts, and leave it up to the individual to deal with.
Thanks guys.
I wonder if it’s possibly the storm actually saved lives? With all the hype, maybe enough stayed off the highways to lower the highway death toll enough to counteract the storm’s toll?
Could it be the MSM has a contract with Proctor and Gamble to help sell Depends?
Storm fails to match the hype …
Commentary: Hyping the Hurricanes
(Saturday update @ur momisugly 5:15 pm Aug 27; Sunday updates @ur momisugly 7:55 am & 5:00 pm Aug 28)
For the past week, news and weather reporters have been feasting on warnings supplied by hurricane specialists that the US mainland was in store for “a big one” with Hurricane Irene. As with so much these days, the hype was far worse than the storm! Read the rest at:
http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=websterb&date=110827
I think the “flooding” was from rain not going down overloaded storm sewers, not from the overflow of the river. I expect the media will utilize this equivocation to cover their tracks.
I just went on CBC’s web site — the remains of Irene are hitting Montreal. They are predicting 50-100 cm of rain for some areas in eastern Quebec. Too bad that our main-stream media stop reporting at the northern U.S. border. It would be interesting if WUWT could continue tracking this storm through Canada, and after it exits Canada, to see exactly what the final fate of Irene will be. Irene — what a cute name.
Great link…
http://www.real-science.com/uncategorized/locations-85-mph-gusts
only two stations reported gust over 85 MPH. Since the numbers were way lower in SC/NC then predicted, I’d say this storm was way overblown. In fact to predict impossible scenarios (we expected steady winds of 55 MPH and gusts of 67 – final results gusts of 40 MPH) should be considered criminal.
I’d like congress to haul in the NWS folks and have them explain what went wrong. And it’s not an excuse to ask for more funding. Based on this link, I’d say it’s time to defund the NWS by 20% to make sure they don’t over-hype a storm. It cost the economy billions.
I dunno… the storm is over here in Southern New England, but Fox News has a number of “scare stories” leading off…. the danger of flooding over the next several days; a huge mobilization of Guard troops to rescue 21 vacationers stranded in a motel; airline travelers stranded; sea foam stired up by Irene carries many dangers….. I’m probably wrong, but it feels like Katrina didn’t get this much attention. As a hurricane, this was an embarassment.
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If they cannot forecast a storm 5 days ahead, why should anyone believe that they can forecast the climate 100 years ahead? MSN please note – the whole weather/climate industry is a busted flush, because nobody believes a word any more.
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The forecasts of the track of Irene were right on, and it would have been a real mess if Irene had been two categories stronger (as forecast). So, since Irene kind of fizzled, is her middle name “Global Cooling”?
….Glenn says:
August 25, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Just a curiosity, today on msnbc Bill McKibben said that because of the record warm water along the coast that Irene’s middle name is “global warming”.