At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Why do I get the feeling this sucker will take the far eastern track and hit Martha’s Vineyard just in time to catch the last of Zero’s vacation?
I failed to poste my prediction when it was first requested.
Still predicting a landfall around Virginia, but not sure if the eye will actually cross over land.
Not much hope left of Irene bringing any rain to Texas it would appear.
Where’s that parade of worse than we thought globally warmed hurricanes?
I think that this hurricane will be a beast when it makes landfall. I don’t think anyone has a clue as to where it will actually go. Here is my prediction…
(Every time the United States has told Israel to give up land for peace or they tell Israel to do something against their best interests the United States is hit with a major disaster. Don’t believe me? Look Up a guy named John Muncy on youtube. Check out his video series about how America curses itself whenever the president (republican or democrat) or his minions tell Israel to give up land. It is some fascinating stuff. If it happened just one time it could be written off as a mere coincidence. But tens of times since 1991? Thats a little eerie.)
C’mon Manfred, the US does something stupid vis-a-vis Israel — on a regular basis; repub or dem.
The models are predicting a South Carolina hit, but I should remind people that it could waffle too….
I think its entirely possible for it to head out towards sea on a northward track and miss everything. Odds are, if it misses land in the Carolinas, then odds are it will hit nothing but *possibly Mass./Canada and that area. I wouldn’t rule anything out, but I think it will hit the N. And S Carolina border around Myrtle Beach. That is my edujumacated guess.
The storm has slowly been tracking on less westward route and I think this will continue making what I said probably the gist of it. Unfortunatly, looks as though it will be Cat. 3 or 4 when it hits. Possibly higher if it takes longer to hit land.
They get better at forecasting every year but they have tended to underpredict the curvature near the GA & SC coast. We worry but NC gets hit.
The track they are showing right now has it pointed directly at me, here in the middle of central coastal South Carolina. I work at a bread factory and we’re starting emergency production to try to get product out early to cover the days afterwards. We’re going to be running non-stop for as long as we can safely continue. We provide bread all the way from North Carolina down to about 1/3 the way into Florida. Thankfully, my house is about an hour farther inland than this factory.
Guess it’s a good thing I’m going to go down to Florida next week to visit the ‘home I will retire to at the end of 2012’. Looks like the track keeps moving eastward out to sea as the week progresses. Saturday the track was straight up the middle of Florida, now it shows about 200 miles off shore.
Here’s what I don’t understand. The center of rotation is 100 miles north of any land, but, NOAA puts the eye right over the Dominican Republic. What is going on here? I just checked the Cabarete wind speed, and, it’s only 12 knots… far from hurrcane force. Is the major media just going for the big lie here, because, I don’t see a hurricane force wind. Check it yourself: http://www.windfinder.com/windreports/windkarte_carib.htm
Why did I not designate North Carolina? I think that it will run along the coast between North Carolina and Virgina, but I doubt that the eye will actually cross over the land.
Actually, it will all depend upon what is happening around Northern California today and the interactions of the low pressure systems when they interact.
So for the moment it looks like it’s headed for SC. Still way to far out to tell. If it takes a slightly more westward path than currently projected, it could hit Florida, if it veers more eastward it could miss the US completely. I’m currently in the 50% probability Zone for TS force winds, so even if it stays away from landfall near here I expect some strong “breezes” so to speak.
@DEEBEE And? Go check out John Muncy, you will be astounded. Incidentally Both the Joplin Tornado and the Tuscaloosa tornado struck within 24 hours of Obama telling Israel to give up land. [snip]
It’s pretty amazing how well the models predicted this storm before the wave was even noticed. I started a thread about it on another site on 8/16! And that was only after noticing the run to run consistency for about three days. Normally I don’t put much stock in a forecast 10+ days out but the models were really consistent with this storm and now it looks like they had everything but the exact track right.
The latest model spread has it hitting from FL to NY:
http://i55.tinypic.com/1jlr9d.jpg
It is always interesting to go to the hurricane details page on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov then choose ‘Archive’ from the top menu bar. Then in the Archive choose Graphics Archive (the only entry in the top menu bar). Then choose “5-Day Track Forecast, Uncertainty Cone, and Watch/Warning” from the list of archives. Watch the movement of the predictions as the storm gets closer.
Manfred José Nissley says:
August 22, 2011 at 12:52 pm
I hear there’s almost always a Full Moon two weeks before or after Obama tells Israel to give up land.
Gary Swift, when did you get the order from FEMA for the emergency production?
(Just kidding… Thank the “invisible Hand” that we have businesses than think and act for themselves.)
The track currently shown at the top of this page from NHC, places the eye directly on top of Charleston SC on Saturday morning. That’s a heavily populated area and a major port. That’s exactly where Hugo made landfall too. We really don’t need another one of those.
@Manfred, you’ll excuse people if they equate that with the *correlation* of pirates and temperature, I hope?
Looks like Fran.
why is it they’re naming every band of thunderstorms this year? Irene the first one to possibly be dangerous?? If they keep it up we’ll have “tropical depression Omega” come november… Anyway this one looks a lot like heading out to sea
Does anyone know any cheap or free software that tracks hurricanes? There used to be a small freeware application (that I lost in one-of-many computer upgrades) that gave a simple display similar to the second illustration. The program could also display historical tracks for comparison.
“Twenty people have escaped unhurt from a fire that broke out at Sir Richard Branson’s luxury home in the Caribbean.
British actress Kate Winslet was among those staying on Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands when a tropical storm broke out and lightning hit the house, said Sir Richard.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14616123
Carbon War Room, eh?
New 12z 22 aug. NAM, has storm placed much further west at 84 hours (175 miles). Close enough to warrant hurricane warnings for southern east coast Florida. Why? it has the northern energy less amplified then the coarse global models at 84 hours .if this is correct SC and NC are going to get hit hard, with inland landfall. The NAM is our best northern stream model, so when the
NAM, speaks forecasters listen. First high accuracy short range models says “[Head ] west, young storm.” In short it does
not agree with coarser long range models with regard to northern energy. Nam limit is 84 hours.
Anthony,
Can we leave this (and future hurricanes) stuck to the top of the page? We’re using all of these at our state EMA and it’d be great if we could use WUWT as our one-stop source.