While we wait for NOAA to update their ENSO meter on the WUWT sidebar, Bob Tisdale is way ahead of them. Visually, the La Niña seems rather obvious in the image below:
More is available at the WUWT ENSO page
Weekly ENSO Index Drops Below The La Niña Threshold
by Bob Tisdale
This post will serve as the Mid-August 2011 SST Anomaly Update
NINO3.4
NINO3.4 SST anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) have dropped significantly below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña Event. They are presently at approximately -0.74 deg C.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
GLOBAL
Weekly Global SST anomalies rose since the last mid-month update, but made a minor dip last week. Global SST anomalies usually lag NINO3.4 SST anomalies by a few months so the global SST anomalies should be nearing their seasonal peak for this year, before they start to respond to the depressed NINO3.4 SST anomalies. For the week centered on August 17, 2011, Global SST anomalies are +0.169 deg C. I’ve also included a shorter-term graph so that the most recent wiggles are visible.
Global SST Anomalies
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Global SST Anomalies – Short Term
SOURCE
Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
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John Kehr says:
August 22, 2011 at 10:55 am
I have been keeping a close eye on this for a while now.
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2011/08/what-is-going-on-in-the-pacific/
Still early to call it El Nino, especially in comparison to last year when it was fully developing already. Not say it won’t go that way, but certainly it will be different from what developed last year.
There has not bee a strong cool phase PDO in a while, but it still looks like the PDO is stronger than the ENSO at the moment.
“PDO stronger than ENSO? You probably know that Bob Tisdale considers (correct me if I’m wrong!) that ENSO and PDO are one and the same.
FWIW I think the same as Bob. My guess is that the PDO is the Lorenz or Roessler type biphasic butterfly wing attractor of the ENSO.
Frank Lansner says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Double dip La Nina has been forecasted for a couple of months now from GFS:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif
K.R. Frank
Indeed. This graphic is also on the ENSO reference page here at WUWT.
phlogiston says: “PDO stronger than ENSO? You probably know that Bob Tisdale considers (correct me if I’m wrong!) that ENSO and PDO are one and the same.”
Nope. The PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO. They aren’t one and the same. And regrading the PDO strength, you have to keep in mind that the PDO data has been standardized, If we compare the 1st Principal Component of the detrended North Pacific (north of 20N) SST anomalies (basically the PDO) to the 1st PC of detrended NINO3.4 SST anomalies and eastern tropical Pacific SST anomalies, without standardizing the data…
http://i54.tinypic.com/x6cxvo.jpg
…we can see that the NINO3,4 SST anomaly signal dwarfs the North Pacific signal.
Bob Tisdale says:
August 23, 2011 at 4:36 am
phlogiston says: “PDO stronger than ENSO? You probably know that Bob Tisdale considers (correct me if I’m wrong!) that ENSO and PDO are one and the same.”
Nope. The PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO.
Thanks – the way I worded it rather missed the mark. The point I was trying to make was that you consider there to be a direct link between the ENSO and PDO.
…we can see that the NINO3,4 SST anomaly signal dwarfs the North Pacific signal.
Is this just because there is more Pacific ocean at the equator than further north?
phlogiston says:”Is this just because there is more Pacific ocean at the equator than further north?”
The SST anomaly variations are largest at the equator in response to ENSO. The NINO3.4 region is also a smaller surface area that the North Pacific (north of 20N) and the eastern Tropical Pacific, which are both about the same size in surface area. .
Actually the CFS is the Johnny-come-lately model to predict a double-dip. The model to look at for early prediction is the FRCGC model. It was one of the first ones to predict last years La Nina and it has consistantly been calling for the double dip. See here:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/modelviews.html and
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/index.html
Looking at the west coast summer (or lack there of) it would appear La Nina is hanging around. Consider a solar grand minima impacting the Pacific cooling adds an element that did not exist during the last cool PDO. A cooler Atlantic will really put the northerners in misery.
It should then be obvious to the folks in traditionally cold areas to plan accordingly and for those who get those once in a thousand year severe winter to be even more cognitive. It might save you a lot of grief to have a generator with a few days of fuel, water, and food. I have seen first hand what can happen to those who are not savvy to how nasty a winter can be. It only takes one to end your days.
It’s colder than we thought!
Thanks, Anthony.
Back in May various trolls notably RR Kampen were loudly proclaiming a big el Nino on the way. Even some WUWT heavy-weights like Bill Illis who should have known better got sucked into predicting an el Nino. What happened? It was obvious from April and even earlier that tongues of cold water – albeit small – were spreading along the Peruvian coast both from the north and the south. This signified incipient upwelling that was the inevitable precursor of the upwelling-trade winds feedback which launches a La Nina. Back in April I asked the question – “will it catch?”. Well, it has. The BoM Monthly Subsurface Pacific Ocean Equatorial Temperature Anomalies down to 400 Meters (WUWT ENSO page) show well established cold water at the east Pacific and a La Nina well underway.
Baa Humbug says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Could Bob Tisdale comment on the above post ?
I was interested to see the suggestion that the climate effect of La Nina (and presumably El Nino) could be altered by the SOI index that accompanies it.
Previously I thought that ENSO phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina drove the SOI (or was it vice versa?) but Baa Humbug seems to be suggesting a degree of independence for SOI and ENSO phenomena.
Clarification please ?
From an engineer who looks at the obvious causes and effects, it is without doubt solar and astronomical influences that are driving our climate.
The rather somnolent attitude of our sun at the moment is a rather worrying aspect, and could cause some grief in coming years in regards to world food supplies and creature comforts.
This extended La Nina may forebode the start of some thing more unpleasant than the financial situation that we find ourselves in. With no food surpluses stored as in the past, a just in time mentality prevailing a profound disaster could rapidly occur.
I am rather hoping that the global warming kicks in soon and saves us from seeing suffering of those less fortunate than us.
If the SOI guys are correct, with a 6-7 mo delay .. this will be a short lived event. SOI is running negative at the moment.
I figure we’ll see a dip, then a return to neutral conditions for awhile. Nothing is pointing to an El Nino yet. I don’t know what Looney Tunes Cartoon Hansen watches to come up with such .. but then, I’ve never grasped the line of thinking inherent in enviro-activists.
I live in NM, I can’t take it anymore! I have to move north where its either normally wet or abnormally wet! In the southwest its either abnormally wet or extremly extremly dry!!! The growing southwest populations can’t handle the extended droughts! Is it just me ore are there now far more La Ninas on the horizon compared to El Ninos! Not to mention the sun is ramping up now! God help us(especially Texas) we’re in for a world of hurt for 2012!
Stephen Wilde says: “Previously I thought that ENSO phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina drove the SOI (or was it vice versa?) but Baa Humbug seems to be suggesting a degree of independence for SOI and ENSO phenomena.”
The Southern Oscillation is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. No doubt about that. Are you referring to equatorial Pacific SST anomalies and the SOI? Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies and the SOI data are measured independently, because they are the measurements of two different variables. One represents the sea surface temperature anomalies of the east-central equatorial Pacific and the other is the difference between the Sea Level pressures of two off-equatorial locations. Are the variables coupled? Yes. Do the two indices correlate perfectly? No. The SOI picks up more “weather” noise.
BTW, NINO3.4 SST anomalies can precede the SOI at times…
http://i53.tinypic.com/s483tf.jpg
…which is why I do not pay much attention to those who use the SOI as a predictor of NINO3.4 SST anomalies or as a predictor of the response in Global Temperatures.