The Texas centered drought versus 1918, 1956 and 1934

Guest post by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, WeatherBell Co-Chief Meteorologist

June temperature and precipitation rankings are in.

Enlarged. Warmest in Texas, Second warmest in Oklahoma.

Enlarged Driest in New Mexico. Fourth driest in Oklahoma. Fifth driest in Texas. Wettest in California.

Texas and Oklahoma has felt the brunt of the 14 state drought that has plagued the south this past winter and into the summer. Almost 20% of the United states is said to have been affected by drought.

Enlarged

The traditional Palmer Drought Severity Index through Saturday looks like this.

Enlarged

Slow improvement has occurred further east along the Gulf Coast and in the desert southwest as seen in this shorter term drought blend. More rains have fallen since the 9th in Louisiana.

Enlarged

The precipitation anomalies in the last 14 days from Louisiana east have been in many areas well above normal, making a dent in the drought. Reportedly up to 13 ionches fell in parts of Lourisiana in the latest heavy rains. Little help has come to most of Texas.

Enlarged

In an earlier post we showed how since south central drought relates to the strength of La Nina in the prior winter and this winter ranked the second strongest on record, a severe Texas drought is not surprising.

Here was the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) since 1876. The only strong La Nina from this atmosphere ENSO emasure was in 1918.

Enlarged

Here was the Palmer Drought Severity Index in July 1918.

Enlarged

The Multivariate Enso Index or MEI bottomed out in 1956, the only period sincce 1950 with a stronger La Nina. Here was the Palmer Drought Severity Index in July 1956

Enlarged

Compared to the near 20% of the country in serious drought, the 1950s when up to 60% was affected and especially the 1930s when 80% of the United States felt the effect of drought and heat.

Enlarged

The 1930s drought peaked in 1934. the drought was centered further north in 1934.

Enlarged

Though the heat wave has spread into the wet areas further north this week creating a literal sauna, the rains and cooling will return there n the next 8 days but the drought will persist in parts of the southern plains. The next 8 day total rainfall shows this. The heat ridge ring of fire is very evident actually shrinking a bit as some showers coming to the southern parts of Texas.

Enlarged

A plot of the worldwide data for the Palmer Drought Severity Index shows that there has been an unprecedented decrease in world drought severity over the past 30 years, possibly due to the plant enhancing increase of CO2.

Enlarged H/t Hockey Stick for this graphic.

Co Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi and I post everyday on weather and climaate issues on WeatherBell.com. For the hobbyiests, our premium blog has daily posts like this and daily Weatherbell blog and FOX Business videos and access to model and other data. We both focus on the short, medium and long range weather and climate and our insight may help your business and personal planning. In our commercial section we have daily special reports for energy, agriculture, hedge funds and retail markets with outlooks for 20 days, months, and seasons. Please help us build that business. If you enjoyed Joe Bastardi’s posts and videos and Intellicast’s Dr. Dewpoint, this blog is for you.

0 0 votes

Article Rating

29 Comments

Andrew

July 24, 2011 6:22 pm

Interestingly, in all the analog years, drought extends all the way up Dakotas, if not all the way to the Canadian Border (and probably beyond in some cases, especially the Dust Bowl drought) But Current Drought is restricted to South of Nebraska.
You know, NOAA has drought reconstruction maps, too, allowing for the possibility of identifying even more previous cases throughout the centuries. Working through them, so far 1780 looks similar, 1786, 1789, 1801, 1805, 1806, 1831, 1855, 1859, 1860, 1862, 1886, also 1909 all have Texas centered droughts, along with several other years with droughts widespread throughout the US. 1925 is also pretty bad in Texas, 1967, 1978…all these are years of either reconstructed or observed dry conditions centered on Texas. The reconstructions may or may not be very good at capturing the reality of the extant and precise pattern of droughts, but these were probably all dry in Texas. Most long before AGW could play a role, including the worst ones.
Check it out:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/animation/pdsi_animation.html

Steve

July 25, 2011 7:05 am

Caleb @ur momisugly 9:48 am Jul 24
No, none of Dora’s moisture made it into TX.

dbstealey

July 25, 2011 6:57 pm

All this arm-waving about what is simply regional weather reminded me of this Irish classic:

SAID HANRAHAN
by John O’Brien
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s looking crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak –
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want an inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain don’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”

Jim White

August 23, 2011 8:15 pm

as a young freshman at UT in 1968 dr. sabah{?} taught us that the earth’s climate continually changed due to many and various influences and yes sometimes it even got warmer, without the help of mankind. chv legman

« Previous 1 2

wpDiscuz

Share this:

Related Posts

Temperatures to Hit Record-Breaking 38C as ‘Heat Dome’ Heads For Britain

UK Met Warns 90F Heatwave Will Cause Power Outages

Hot town, summer in the city

No, New York Times, Climate Change Is Not Making Tennis Players Ill