Weather Post by Dr. Ryan N. Maue
As the ridge of high pressure slowly edges eastward over the eastern USA, dewpoints in the 80sF and temperatures over the century mark are creating heat index values typically seen in Iran, Yemen, or Saudi Arabia. Along the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, sufficient moisture combines with the oppressive desert heat to generate heat indices in excess of 130F. As of 1 PM Eastern on Friday, parts of the DelMarVa peninsula are feeling the effects of Northern Hemisphere summer Middle-Eastern style.
From coolwx.com/extreme “Extreme Weather Site“, which keeps track of crazy global METAR or station data, Baltimore MD has a HI of 129F. An unofficial “records” site co-authored by myself shows current temperatures compared to daily and monthly records going back between 30-60 years. While some stations have much longer historical records, this quick-look is indicative of record high/low temperatures, and inspires the reader to cross-check the local National Weather Service office daily climate page to verify the “all-time” high. For instance, Newark NJ (KEWR) is going to test it’s all-time high temperature, currently sitting at 104F…
At my Florida State weather maps site, I plot up a variety of useful quantities from the brand new NAM/WRF 4-kilometer mesoscale forecast model which runs four-times daily over the Continental USA. These include simulated radar reflectivity, 2-meter temperature, and heat-index. It is cool to watch the near-surface temperatures wax and wane with the daytime heating or plunge as a thunderstorm cools an area with its outflow pool.
Historical Heat Index and 2-meter Temperature from the RTMA 2.5 km mesoscale analysis: 2-meter temperature (last 48-hours), heat-index (last 48-hours)
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July 22nd and here in Calgary, Alberta we have a high of 55 degrees F. When is global warming going to arrive here?
I live in the midwest and it was quite hot at the beginning of the week. On Monday we set a record for Heat Index with a temp of 118°. It was 112° on Tuesday. In both cases the real temp was only on the lower 90s. The dew point was over 80°. On Wednesday the temperature remained about the same but the humidity dropped and the difference was noticeable.
When someone says it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity … sometimes they are right on. I played golf all 3 days and could barely finish my round the first two days. On the 3rd day it didn’t even seem that hot.
As I’ve been noting, by and large, this is contained within the Southeastern quadrant. Surprise, surprise, most of that area has a Continental Subtropical climate.
This ongoing “drama” is not news. It is MSM hype.
Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that “consensus” AGW theory is correct and global warming is the cause of the current U.S. heat wave. By what mechanism would global warming, which amounted to about 1 degree from 1980 to 1998 and little or none since then, cause a heat wave averaging about 15 degrees above normal over a region comprising just 2.7% of Earth’s land mass (i.e, the eastern half of the continental U.S.)? Do the climate models predict this? Is Michael Mann’s “loaded dice” analogy the best explanation the Team can come up with?
Steve (Paris) says:
July 22, 2011 at 11:01 am
Meanwhile it has been raining solid for ten days in Paris with temps never much above 20°c. Much the same across Europe it seems. Where are the headlines?
In SW France we have had temperatures of 39°C and 17°C just in the last month. The 39°C is not unusual but the 17°C. Average for this time of year is 26°C. I have never been in jeans and pullover in July in France and I have never slept with a blanket and over cover before in july in France but I have this year !!! Nothing in the lie sheets though. It’s cold !!
Fact is that It does not matter how intelligent model simulation we could construct, it won´t be able to stop the next solar minimum….
Heat index update, Mid-Atlantic states experience Middle East climate…
Then….all what is missing is a few Jihadists 🙂
feet2thefire says:
July 22, 2011 at 12:21 pm
“Come to Chicago folks! (If you can sell your houses and move…) The place where almost all the bad weather avoids!”
Also the place where bad politicians never avoid. 🙂
Mid-Atlantic states experience Middle East climate
On the local weather I watch, for the benefit of those with loved ones deployed overseas on the last two *official* US war-type military operations, they sometimes show the next-day temps and weather for Iraq and Afghanistan. Right now, from here in central Pennsylvania, Afghanistan doesn’t seem that bad.
I found some weather info for Kabul, detailed 48-hr and general 15-day forecast. For the next week, highs in the low to mid 90’s (°F), lows just above and below 70°. And if the 48-hours is any hint, low humidity! Man, it’d be great to be in Afghanistan for the next week! ☺
Yes, we had the same thing here in MN a couple of days ago. New dewpoint record of 82F at MSP and new state record potentially (needs to be verified) of 88F at Moorehead. Many sites around the Twin Cities reported 84F with temps in the mid and upper 90s producing heat indicies above 120F. In fact MN had the highest dewpoints being measured on earth at that time.
Tom T says:
July 22, 2011 at 11:58 am
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif is not the most attractive map one can imagine, but it is useful.
More signs of Climate Change. When are you guys going to accept the signs?
What are bedridden seniors supposed to do if their air conditioning breaks down? Will someone come get them? Are their any vans that will pick up people and take them to the nearest cooling center? Will there be any nurses or doctors on hand that know how to take care of the elderly in such situations?
What if there is a power outage?
Custering on,
Seneca
@Smokey says:
July 22, 2011 at 10:48 am
NOAA’s latest scare tactic: a fiery red map.
CRS reply Smokey, last Friday would have been a perfect day for James “Venus Syndrome” to give one of his scare presentations on global warming to Congress! He could have turned off the air conditioning and everything, just like last time!
I would love to see that considering what the mood in the capitol must be about now!!
Well, maybe if the temps broke all-time highs and kept doing so. Maryland’s is 110 deg set in 1936. In fact, PA, WV and DE all set their all-time highs in 1936 — the middle of the Dust Bowl heat wave and drought.
Maybe if you could read the signs you wouldn’t make such silly statements.
This is the nth day in a row that Drudge.com has had these kinds of stories:
BIG BROIL: ALL-TIME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY IN NYC, PHILLY…
HORRID…
TEMP MAP…
HELL: NYC waters FLOODED with raw sewage…
Chicago fire crews shut off 2,000+ open hydrants…
Could somebody with some climate credentials email him and point out that 80% of the county has temps in the high 90s and 100s with high humidity EVERY summer?
Out west it hasn’t been too bad – mostly mid 80’s so far. But it seems to be getting closer to the more normal 90s soon. It IS almost August.
Thank you
URL
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Michael Ronayne’s blink gif of the draft copy of the map, vs the final map – note that the maps are showing the very same temperatures – morphing it into a scary red in the final, public version:
http://www.john-daly.com/USGCRP/USGCRP_Animate.gif
Darwin, Australia from November to March (wet season) regularly reaches 95F and 90% humidity. What does that look like on the index
How does this heat wave compare to the 1930’s Dust Bowl years?
heat wave predictions says:
July 22, 2011 at 4:35 pm
What are the seniors supposed to do in this heat?
The same thing as they are supposed to do in the cold, call 911.
“temperature”->”heat index”, “carbon dioxide”->”carbon emissions”, “global warming”->”global climate disruption”
Tower of Babel or 1984?
Post by “Dr. Ryan N. Maue”, first comment by “Ryan Adam Maue”. Same guy? Father/son? Just curious, not suggesting it’s related… 🙂
Best,
Frank
Sure enough – nine hours later and the dew point is up from 62 to 70. It was nice while it lasted. Actually slept rather nicely last night with the drier air. Not quite as likely to happen tonight. Oh well, when all else fails, there’s always …
ice cream !!!
@Tom T says:
July 22, 2011 at 11:58 am
Here’s one I use: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ustemp.gif
@Richard Dupuis W, wow, and you put that so nicely too. 🙂
@Steve (Paris) July 22, 2011 at 11:01 am
“Meanwhile it has been raining solid for ten days in Paris with temps never much above 20°c. Much the same across Europe it seems. Where are the headlines?”
Coldest autumn in Australia for at least 60 years. Wettest July on record. Where, indeed, are the headlines?
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0305&ave_yr=0
Robert, this doesn’t compare yet, give it maybe 5 years though and look back. A primer maybe. We’ve entered an uptick volcanic period that’s surprised me. Will it progress on to the bad news stratosphere reaching biggest eruptions? Who knows? Those will definately cool us off.
They seem to like it hot in the nation’s capital. Since the hotter it gets the more political incapacity comes out of Washington DC, wouldn’t it be an idea to take air conditioning away from those dunderheads? A cut to help pay debt.