No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.
Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.
This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.
This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.
Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.
I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.
Anthony
1947
“The Arctic is Melting
A mysterious warming of the Arctic climate is slowly manifesting itself, said Dr Haas Ahlmann, Swedish geophysicist at the University of California yesterday”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/22429983?
1952
“Polar Ice Caps Melt
New York, Sunday. Polar Ice caps were melting at an astonishing rate, Dr. W. S. Carlson said.”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/49236255?
1950
“CLIMATE CHANGE. World is warming!
The Arctic Ocean had risen about an inch in the last 80 years, due to the sun melting the ice packs.”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/49734531?
I enjoyed reading Wil’s post, I remember the global cooling predictions from the 60’s/70’s but was not aware that it was just panic repeating itself.
The whole point that the warmists are missing (and some of the sceptics) is that a long term trend in climate change cannot be determined in less than say 50 years. To state that one given weather event is due to climate change is nonsensical because extremes of weather have happened throughout history.The longer you wait the greater are the chances that extreme cold or heat will occur, as will more powerful hurricanes and tornadoes. Likewise with non-weather events such as tsumani, volcanoes and earthquakes.
Best of luck with analysing all the information Anthony, I don’t envy you, but I think that WUWT contributors have done you proud!!
Not to rain TOO much on the parade, but it is important to read the predictions carefully.
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be mostly ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will some open water?
* Do they predict the Northwest Passage will be open?
Glancing thru the links, I see some of that seem to match all the different criteria. For example, the North Pole did come relatively close to having open water (interspersed with ice) in 2007. It would not take TOO much more melting to get the Pole itself ice-free even though that would leave a great deal of ice in the Arctic Sea as a whole.
Heck, at least one of the old articles was addressing the melting of GLACIERS in Alaska and Norway, not sea ice! The second-hand reports in newspapers and press releases of scientific information are notoriously inaccurate, and I would be very wary of using such sources.
LOL Anthony! I don’t even have to post a thing! This is one fine team you have here.
What I find most impressive and that pulls the rug out from under the warmists are the many first hand reports from the 1800’s and early 1900’s that describe a dearth of ice in the Arctic. Funny, I don’t recall all life on earth disrupted then. How come it is expected to be disrupted if the ice melts in the future? How come those South Pacific islands were there then, as they are now? The links that are particularly hilarious are the ones that use the words, “for the first time in history!”
I think it has something to do with progressive thought that doesn’t require one to learn from history. Their world begins now and any change is necessarily bad because it suits their need for crisis resulting in their control of the rest of us.
A big round of applause to all of you!!!
As a side note, not a single troll! Amazing how they scurry into the darkness when faced with overwhelming evidence that what they spew is unadulterated crap!!!
I tried to compile all the links above with a webbspider. It can be found in the google docs link below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aqbt9MMxg7tWdEU4WmRDUk1OZl85TWlCOHNvYVV2VWc&hl=en_US
I can’t guarrantee that all links are there but I think most of them are. Anyone can edit it so if you have more links or want to add information in the other collumns you can do so. Simply click on the link. And don’t forgett to save the document.
Well, let’s not forget the other side of the equation, with skeptical experts such as Joe Bastardi saying essentially that the Arctic will never be ice free, and is essentially in the process of recovery. On this very blog, regarding 2011’s sea ice melt and recovery, last December he said:
“The ice is coming back, will do so in forward and back steps, with forward defeating the back steps. I am on record as saying we will be back to 1977 levels by 2030. The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. Like the 70s, cries of ice age will start again. So my forecast for next years melt is for 5.5.”
Sorry Joe, but you’re really missing the boat on this years melt. I hope someone didn’t pay you for the forecast.
But Anthony, I suppose the point of your research is to show how foolish and wrong the warmists have been about their ice free predictions, and that’s all well and good, but it misses the bigger issue about trying to predict the future state of a system undergoing non-linear changes.
Ha!
The Arctic will be ice-free the next time you blink. And, thereafter, it will be ice free each and every time you blink.
Anthony,
Another equally important preparation for Gore’s Climate Change onslaught would be to have at hand documentation on
earlier climate incidents similar to the ones in the last few years.
E.g. the Arctic melt in 1922 (and earlier documented instances), tornadoes history, drought history, etc.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/arctic-summers-could-be-ice-free-by-2040/article859608/
We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far,” NCAR scientist Marika Holland, the study’s lead author, said in a release.
“These changes are surprisingly rapid.”
19 December 2006
@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf!
http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/amcelhinney/2009/08/19/exclusive-lies-revealed-greenpeace-leader-admits-arctic-ice-exaggeration/#more-207706
Greenpeace Leader Admits Arctic Ice Exaggeration
by Phelim McAleer & Ann McElhinney
The outgoing leader of Greenpeace has admitted his organization’s recent claim that the Arctic Ice will disappear by 2030 was “a mistake.” Greenpeace made the claim in a July 15 press release entitled “Urgent Action Needed As Arctic Ice Melts,” which said there will be an ice-free Arctic by 2030 because of global warming.
Under close questioning by BBC reporter Stephen Sackur on the “Hardtalk” program, Gerd Leipold, the retiring leader of Greenpeace, said the claim was wrong.
“I don’t think it will be melting by 2030. … That may have been a mistake,” he said.
Link to Video
19 August 2009
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
More details
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/arctic-ocean-ice-free-summer-by-2015.php
Arctic Ocean Ice-Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows – Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 09. 1.09
Science & Technology (science)
photo: Nick Russill via flickr
Anyone keeping up on the pace of Arctic summer sea ice melting, take note: Mongabay is reporting on new research presented by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark (and others) which says that if current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2015:
These latest estimates are based on new data on the rate of rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice — 2004-2008 saw a total decline of 67cm. (More on this from NASA.)
What’s more, scientists reported “rapid increases” in the amount of ice lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet — 60% of which is coming from icebergs calving off glaciers. The remaining amount is coming from increased surface melting, which is no longer confined to the southern part of the ice sheet — the amount of ice accumulating in the inland part of the ice sheet is starting to decline as well.
Read more: Mongabay
Arctic Ice Melt
Arctic Sea Ice Melt 20 Years Ahead of Schedule, Scientist Maintains Tipping Point Assertion
NASA Confirms Dramatic Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice – Multi-year Ice the Size of Alaska Lost
Arctic Just Witnessed Fastest August Ice Retreat in History
@ur momisugly Adrian Ocneanu
I was going to suggest the very same thing Adrian. That could turn out to be the best compilation of data ever in this debate!
Cryosphere: The big melt
Alicia Newton
To read this article in full you may need to log in, make a payment or gain access through a site license (see right).
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/reshigh/2007/1007/full/ngeo.2007.31.html
Nick Shaw says:
July 17, 2011 at 10:12 am
@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf.
____
I think Joe knows certain things well, but knows nothing about sea ice or what is happening in the Arctic. He is assuming that historical cycles of climate will constantly repeat themselves, just like the seasons do. This is why Joe makes a better weatherman than a climatologist. We’ve got an atmosphere on this planet whose composition is like nothing the planet has seen in at least a million years. Joe seems to discount this, and that’s why he probably ought to stick with weather forecasting, and leave longer term climate changes to others.
R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions.
Venter says:
July 17, 2011 at 7:16 pm
R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions
____
I realize that Joe B. is a hero among some of the skeptical faithful, and so my challenging his credibility in predicting the direction that sea ice is headed in the longer-term amounts to heresy. Joe has yet to prove he understands anything about the dynamics of Arctic sea ice. He seems to assume that some cyclical ocean or solar cycles can explain everything that’s going to happen. He discounts the 40% increase in CO2 we’ve had over the past few centuries. This of course, is reason enough he’s a hero to the skeptical faithful, but IMO, he knows nothing about where the Arctic sea ice is headed in the longer term. He keeps looking for a recovery, that just seems quite reluctant to happen.
Going through my “keepers”, found this one: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php
I have no idea if someone already mentioned this one.
Good Luck.
Reply: Why didn’t you look? Too much trouble to use the search function on your browser? It turns out no one has previously, which is ok, since the link you gives goes to an error page. ~ ctm
Oops. You need the last litlle bit.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250
On Bishop Hill is an interesting list of all the climate scares in the past 114 years
Climate Change Timeline – 1895-2009
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/7/14/abraham-on-the-mwp.html
It is from Peter Walsh; to be found as the 7 th comment to the Abraham’s topic.
WUWT at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/24/nyt-expert-says-arctic-ocean-will-soon-be-an-open-sea/ covered a Feb. 20, 1969 New York Times article titled “Expert Says Artic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea.”
Why not run a book and take bets on an ice free arctic? I’d go for 2030 myself.