No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.
Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.
This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.
This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.
Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.
I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.
Anthony
What a fantastic support by WUWT readers! I applaud you all!!!
This whole project very much needs some precise definitions, otherwise there will be a lot of hand-waving about the meaning of an ‘ice-free Arctic’ when it comes to the crunch.
When climate change fetishists say ‘ice-free’ they don’t really mean literally ice-free. They mean much less ice than now – little enough to dismiss what remains as insignificant.
We need to hold them to their literal statement by defining ‘Arctic’ and ‘ice-free’ in such a way that they cannot state the ‘Arctic is ice-free’ unless it literally is completely ice free. No icebergs, no bergy-bits, no growlers, nothing.
Time for the fetishists to come out and say precisely what they mean by ‘ice-free’.
Otherwise I’m not playing.
Global Warming Making Allergies Worse
Basically an increase in Co2 has been beneficial to plant life, but man made climate change seems to only increase those nasty plants that produce pollen, Yes that would be all of them.
In this clip you will hear the expert opinion of a medical doctor who says “because we’ve had a lot of rain, and now we’ve had a lot of dry weather for a lot of weeks, and we’ve had a lot of patients in that we haven’t seen in years”.
It really makes sense that plant life evolved to take advantage of just such a process, Co2 + Rain = more plant life followed by a seasonal dry weather spell to blow a lot of pollen about.
But there is still the suggestion of man made global warming causality.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years-20110712-1hbl8.html
http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_ice_march_2011-76831
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
http://www.universetoday.com/84369/scientists-predict-arctic-could-be-ice-free-within-decades/
http://thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16158893/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/arctic-summer-could-be-ice-free/
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-scientists-warn-that-there-may-be-no-ice-at-north-pole-this-summer-855406.html
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-03-scientists-arctic-ice-free-decades.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/12/061212-arctic-ice.html
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/artic-may-be-icefree-by-2050-russian-expert/127548-51-96.html
http://www.thecourier.com.au/news/national/national/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years/2223666.aspx
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20050928_trendscontinue.html
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
http://blog.tomevslin.com/2007/10/the-ice-free-ar.html
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-15/world/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt_1_sea-ice-arctic-ocean-thicker-ice?_s=PM:WORLD
http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/coast_sea/sea-surface-temperature
Googling ‘arctic ice “tim flannery”‘ yields 71,500 results. Life is too short to check them all but I’m sure there are some howlers there. He never lets the facts stand in the way of a good scare story.
Prominent players: Film Industry
Billy Liar says: July 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
<otherwise I'm not playing. You don’t need you to play, they have a captive audience in toddlers and children who don’t yet have the cognitive ability in parameters of time/space.
Ice Age: The Meltdown MArch 2006
The film exceeded expectations by opening with an $68,033,544 in its first weekend
“In the opening scene, Scrat, the saber-toothed squirrel climbs a glacier but accidentally opens a hole in it. The world of ice is slowly melting. The creatures of the Ice Age are all shown enjoying themselves on slides and pools made by the melting ice; among them the three protagonists of the first film: Manny, Sid, and Diego. Sid opens a day camp, where none of the younger creatures take him seriously, nor do Manny and Diego, which leaves Sid seeking a daring deed. Fast Tony, a local con artist is claiming that the earth will flood and that the bark and reeds which he sells are needed to stay alive. Manny dismisses the idea, but is distracted…………”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Age:_The_Meltdown
No Time for Nuts can also be found on youtube.
At NOAA’s site, by 2035: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html
Using the observed 2007/2008 summer sea ice extents as a starting point (Figure 1, above), computer models predict that the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summertime within 30 years (Figure 2, above). (Where it says 2035)
and this one:”Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years” David Adam, environment correspondent, The Guardian, September 5, 2007, Retrieved September 5, 2007
I’m short of time to read earlier comments and as these are well known, especially the Goracle one, apologies for the likely repeat of these. Also I haven’t checked the links lately so I hope they’re still working.
Gore in 08 – ice free arctic in 5 years http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/the-annotated-gore-climate-speech/
Pen Hadow in 09 – ice free arctic in 10 years http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6326446/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-a-decade-according-to-Pen-Hadow.html
NSIDC this year – ice free arctic within thirty years http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
Ice Age: Continental Drift July 2012
Also a search on Google ‘national geographic ice free Arctic’ brought up pages of reports, many with dates Anthony.
Prominent players: Educational TV
National Geographic streams at 7.30 pm. prime time children viewing and internet access for pictures (no drawing these days) for school projects. No year dates avail, presume streaming in 2011?
Do not state by ‘no ice by XXX’ but sublimal messages of melting ice which fits the (visual) narrative designed of much ‘science’ and ‘history’ delivered to kids these days.
National Geographic channel Educational TV :p (search ‘Arctic ice’)
1. On Thin Ice
Superbly suited to their environment, polar bears thrive in the planet’s most hostile corners.
There is no more iconic symbol of strength and adaptation to the elements than the polar bear. An animal so superbly suited to its environment that it thrives in the most hostile corners of the planet. But this magnificent master of the arctic is once again in danger of disappearing. From the far north of the Canadian wilderness, to the arctic islands of Norway, leading scientists are in the field working on the cutting-edge of polar bear research, dedicated to securing a future for this magnificent creature. It is not too late for their survival, but only just. It is a race against time and one they are determined to win. The frozen expanses of the Arctic are shrinking at an unprecedented rate and the very survival of the polar bear is literally on thin ice. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/on-thin-ice/
2. Polar Bear Alcatraz
Imagine being marooned on an Arctic island with the highest density of the biggest land predators anywhere on the planet?
The polar bear is the biggest land predator of them all. So imagine being marooned on an Arctic island, with the highest density of polar bears anywhere on the planet. Two men are willing to do just that. And to this tale of survival is added the touching story of an orphaned cub which is forced to go it alone in a world of ice. Time and again, the bears test the men’s endurance as they explore the majesty and splendour of the polar bear at its most wild and raw. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/polar-bear-alcatraz/
3. Six Degrees
Examine the irreversible changes brought on by global warming
How is it that cheeseburgers consumed by Americans have a larger carbon footprint than all the SUVs in America? And how can we play our part in stopping climate change? http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/six-degrees/
4. Waking the Baby Mammoth
In this unique story of discovery, a perfectly preserved baby woolly mammoth suddenly is found, triggering an investigation into her life and death at the end of the Ice Age. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/waking-the-baby-mammoth/
source:- http://natgeotv.com.au/ (italics added)
I am not sure if this counts, but it is interesting. http://www.popsci.com/content/arctic-ice-free-year
Here is one from Tory Aardvark http://toryaardvark.com/2011/07/12/no-the-arctic-wont-now-be-ice-free-in-2012-but-it-might-be-by-2030/
and one from The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
One from National Geographic http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
Are the dates normally distributed about some mean?
ice free arctic between 2050 & 2080
paper – http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011/tcd-5-1311-2011.pdf
Recent wind driven high sea ice export in
the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea
ice decline
I am sure you have this one but if not it bears repeating:
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/arctic-sea-ice-gone-by-2015-a-challenge-to-david-barber/
Kindest Regards
2035 – http://www.arcticprogress.com/2011/01/us-navy-north-pole-ice-free-2035/
Here’s an interesting letter from 1928 on the rapid warming in the arctic in the 20’s:
http://voksenlia.net/met/lyr/green_harbour.pdf
It doesn’t predict an ice free arctic, but it shows that the warming at that time seemed so alarming to scientists that some doubted that the measurements could be correct. Here’s a quick translation:
“I’m sending you a report of the monthly means in Green Harbour and an explanation by meteorologist Birkeland, where he states his opinion that there must have been a change in the thermometer setup, since the climate seems to have become milder during the recent years.”
“While not denying that there can be temperature fluctuation in the arctic regions lasting such a long time as this, I’d still like to ask you whether you’re aware of any change in the thermometer setup, or in anything else that could influence the temperatures that are recorded.”
The station in Green Harbour (Grønfjorden) is in Svalbard, was located near today’s Russian town Barentsburg. The reply was that there had been no changes.
I found this, but judging by the comments already here, its probably aleady been spotted
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
I think most of these have already been found but I’ll leave the list anyway 🙂
I searched “arctic ice summer gone” in Altavista and these were the top 10 results:
By 2008 – Olaf Orheim of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat – http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm (posted 01-Mar-2008) and http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php (posted 02-Mar-2008)
By 2008 – Mark Serreze of NASA – http://www.kewego.co.uk/video/iLyROoafYeQw.html (posted either 07-Aug or 08-Jul-2008 depending on whether the date is UK or US format)
By 2012 – Jay Zwally of NASA (Mark Serreze also gets quoted but not mentioning a date) – http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html (posted 12-Dec-2007), also in the UK Daily Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html , the Sunday Herald in Scotland http://www.heraldscotland.com/summer-ice-in-arctic-will-be-gone-in-under-five-years-1.870801 , and on a website called “Beyond 2012” http://beyond2012hq.com/will-2012-be-the-end-for-arctic-summer-ice/
By 2015 – “scientists”, not further specified – http://globalwarmingisreal.com/2009/04/29/will-arctic-summer-ice-have-disappeared-by-2015/ (no post date but there’s a comment dated 20-May-2009 so on or before that date)
By 2029 – Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University – http://www.recycle.co.uk/news/1488000.html (posted 16-Oct-2009)
By 2040 – NCAR – http://www.climateark.org/blog/2006/12/summer-arctic-sea-ice-gone-by.asp (posted 12-Dec-2006, reference http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/geowissenschaften/bericht-75828.html )
By 2019, or possibly as early as 2013 according to Walt Meier.
Arctic will be ice-free within a decade
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent, The Telegraph, 7 April 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
“He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.”
Roy
This may be of interest.
A quote by NSIDC:
Sometimes in everyday use, people associate “the North Pole” with the entire Arctic region. However, when scientists discuss the North Pole, they mean the geographic North Pole, a single point on the globe located at 90 degrees North. The term “Arctic” generally refers to a much larger region that encompasses the northern latitudes of the globe. The Arctic includes regions of Russia, North America, and Greenland, as well as the Arctic Ocean.
Early in the summer of 2008, there were reports that the ice at the North Pole may melt away completely during the summer of 2008. While the possibility existed that the geographic point at the North Pole could be ice-free in summer at some point, NSIDC scientists did not made an official statement as to whether this might happen. The scientific community has a range of predictions concerning when we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. It could be as early as 2013 or as late as 2100. NSIDC’s projections generally fall somewhere in the lower half of this range.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html#north_pole
By 1930 i.e. 81 years ago?
Actually that is the inference drawn in retrospect from a report by the US Weather Bureau in 1922 according to the article below. In reply to a comment querying the source the administrator said that “the weather report was issued by the US weather Bureau in November 1922 and appeared in print in the Washington Post the same month.”
I have not seen the Washington Post article by my impression is that it did not mention a specific date.
Looks like the Arctic will be ice free by 1930
http://www.simplygreencornwall.com/blog/?p=651
“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and
in some places the seals are finding the water too hot,” according
to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consul
Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and
explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate
conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
“Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met
with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth
of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great
masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,
the report continued, while at many points well-known glaciers
have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are
found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and
smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being
encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”
—US WEATHER BUREAU, 1922
Roy
Professor Olav Orheim with his doctoral degree in glaciology is mentioned above. This is from an interview with him, published 23.01.2008 kl. 08:04, in Norwegian, in the leading (and sole) Norwegian technological weekly):
http://www.tu.no/miljo/article132039.ece
He states that the Arctic will be ice-free this summer, but after all, it [huge exclamation marks and laughter and applause here] depends on the weather!
This is another one about an expedition that is embarking on a voyage to the Arctic in order to find out how quickly it all happens, published 30.10.2007 kl. 08:52:
http://www.tu.no/miljo/article118638.ece
They state that it may happen in 16 years time or it may happen within 2100.
There are many more such articles with various degrees of scariness and “if we don’t do something” and surprising consequences – like ice melting will give more drought, but the absurdity of it all made me reluctant to include more.
By all means, the Norwegian media have released thousands of such articles during the last years.
I receive the BBC so will keep an eagle eye put.
Have used the elder wand to move almost all above URLs before 2:09 am into a spread sheet. one page has raw data. Second page has duplicates removed. Anthony, interested?
This is from the biggest swedish daily newspaper. It claims the Arctic may be icefree this summer. For the first time in at least a hundred thousand years. The year was 2008….
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/nordpolen-kan-bli-isfri-i-sommar
Popular Science – 1923:
“Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warning up, with prospect of a great climate change in that part of the world? Science (says “Popular Science”) is asking these questions.”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/37303533?