No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.
Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.
This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.
This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.
Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.
I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.
Anthony
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http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/voyage-into-the-arctic-as-summer-ice-vanishes-20090324-9860.html
Arctic summer could be ice-free by 2040.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16158893/
Quoting: Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.
Citing lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR
(“updated 12/11/2006 5:42:21 PM ET”)
I count 245 References. I think this has been going for about 12 hours. That’s 20 references per hour.
By tomorrow, Anthony, you should have close to 500. I might suggest an equally hilarious exercise would be to find out how many years out (starting in 1954, with the offical start of Hot Fusion research) “practical fusion power” is placed. Typically a “new major advancement” is made about once every 3 to 5 years. At that point it is said with AUTHORITY that ‘break even” will come in 5 to 10 years, and power production in 15 to 20 years. It’s a GREAT gambit, that has them puppies “fed” for almost 60 years, to a levelized cost of $1,000,000,000 per year. (All for nothing.)
1869 : Arctic Summers Believed To Be “almost free of ice”
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/1869-arctic-summers-believed-to-be-almost-free-of-ice/
Cited Source: http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/
(Posted on February 23, 2011 by stevengoddard)
Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
Cited Source: Jonathan Overpeck, chair of the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee. (no link provided)
Bjorn Carey; Date: 23 August 2005 Time: 09:22 AM ET
Ice-Free Arctic Ocean Possible In 30 Years, Not 90 As Previously Estimated
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090402143752.htm
Story Source: reprinted (editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily) from materials provided by University of Washington.
Journal Reference: Wang, M., and J. E. Overland. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophysical Research Letters, 2009; 36 (7): L07502 DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037820
ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2009)
Arctic Largely Ice Free in Summer Within Ten Years?
by John Roach
Source: sea-ice expert Peter Wadhams, og (sic) the University of Cambridge in England
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090921-arctic-sea-ice.html
Added Quotation: “Serreze’s group in Boulder, though, is on record saying the Arctic’s summer sea ice will fully melt around 2030. Other groups have put the ice-free date as late as 2100.”
National Geographic News October 15, 2009
North Pole May Be Ice-Free This Summer
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/environment/May-June-08/North-Pole-May-Be-Ice-Free-This-Summer.html
by findingDulcinea Staff
“After a drastic polar meltdown last year, climate scientists say that the Arctic region is primed for the previously unimaginable.”
“The North Pole may be free of ice for the first time in history,” said Canadian climate scientist David Barber to Canwest News Service. “This is a very dramatic change in the High Arctic Climate System.”
Post dated June 26, 2008 02:12 PM
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20021207_seaice.html
http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/qthinice.asp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article767459.ece (no catastrophic prognostications with this one for the ice but bloody funny comments on drowning polar bears……….total bollocks).
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm (13/4 pages down……prediction for all gone by 2013).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080620-north-pole.html
http://www.desmogblog.com/melting-north-pole-no-problem
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=i3ZWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=2OQDAAAAIBAJ&pg=1581,5524109&dq=heat+wave+north+pole&hl=en (this one says reindeer get hit by lightning caused by artic heating…..almost as good as polar bears drowning).
http://www.lightnet.co.uk/informer/environment/20000820.htm (a rich source of dire catastrophic disastrous prognostication this one).
Right, that’s my pathetic contribution………..hope some of it helps.
“At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” – NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally, quoted in an article by Associated Press, December 12, 2007, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
I’m thinking, since crowd sourcing is to ease up the work, that maybe crowd sourcing works best with “smaller” communities for generating less work. :p
The google search term
ice free Arctic by “1995..2100”
brings all 24,100,000 pages where the [phrase ‘ice free Artic by’ followed by any year from 1995 through 2100.
1. Dec 2007 “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
2. same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
“Professor Wadhams said the Arctic was now being set up for further ice loss in the coming years.
“The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
“There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
3. Same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Dr Mark Serreze was asked to give one of the main lectures here at this year’s AGU Fall Meeting.
Discussing the possibility for an open Arctic ocean in summer months, he told the meeting: “A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that’s what our models were telling us. But as we’ve seen, the models aren’t fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate.
“My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of.”
4. Joe Romm repeats the 2013 date at :
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
Will work on this more later….
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Anthony,
I thought I’d try a different angle. I searched Russian sources, since I doubt many people here will search using Russian language keywords. These are leading me to other examples. I’ll put the clearest immediately below.
http://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2011/webprogram/Session3012.html
http://byers.typepad.com/arctic/climate-change/
http://byers.typepad.com/arctic/2010/09/another-big-ice-arctic-thaw-say-experts.html
http://cc.rsoe.hu/index.php?pageid=news_read&hirid=569
http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2281
http://www.nps.edu/Academics/Centers/CCC/news/zellenOct09.html
http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2009/12/united_states_leadership_in_th.html
http://whitehorsestar.com/archive/print/23493/
http://rn-t.com/bookmark/13083801
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/26/us-climate-arctic-idUSTRE70P6TE20110126
http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-environment/scientists-thrash-arctic-early-warning-system-details-news-501661
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Polar_Bears_and_Three-Year-Olds_on_Thin_Ice_(historical)
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html
Interesting.
http://www.springer.com/earth+sciences+and+geography/oceanography/book/978-1-4020-9459-0
My first digging….
http://www.newsru.com/russia/06jul2011/arctic.html
Проблема освоения Арктики обострилась по причине глобального потепления и таяния льда. Ледяной покров не только сокращается, но и истончается. Ученые не исключают, что в скором времени Арктика вообще может остаться без льда. По прогнозу специалистов, уже летом 2020 года суда смогут свободно плавать в водах Северного Ледовитого океана.
My translation:
The problem with developing the Arctic is made worse because of global warming and melting of the ice. The ice cap not only is shrinking, but is disappearing. Scientists do not reject the idea that in the near future the Arctic in general may be free of ice. Specialists estimate that by the year 2020 vessels will be able to sail freely in the Arctic Ocean.
Almost a date, but not quite.
http://www.ng.ru/science/2011-06-22/9_massa.html
Доктор биологических наук, почетный полярник Игорь МЕЛЬНИКОВ
Сейчас несомненно, что потепление в обоих полушариях продолжается. Продолжается таяние морского льда и покровных ледников, продолжается деградация вечной мерзлоты, что приводит к высвобождению метана и двуокиси углерода и, как следствие, росту концентрации «парниковых» газов в атмосфере. Чтобы понять и прогнозировать динамику этих процессов, нужны мощные финансовые вливания в мониторинг природы полярных областей. Это нужно и важно понять ответственным лицам, принимающим решения.
My translation:
Doctor of biological sciences, honored polar expert Igor Melnikov
It is indesputable, that warming of both hemispheres is continuing. The melting of sea ice and polar glaciers continues, the degradation of permafrost continues, that will lead to the release of methane and carbon dioxide, and consequently, to an increase in the concentration of “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere. In order to understand and predict the dynamics of these processes, we need an enabling infusion of funding for monitoring Nature in the polar regions. This is necessary and important for responsible leaders to understand and make decisions.
http://www.itar-tass.com/c108/171481.html
Тридцатичетырёхстраничная «Стратегия для Арктики на 2011—2020 годы»
Новейшие научные исследования показывают, что последние шесть лет стали самым тёплым периодом в Арктике за всю историю наблюдений. Область снежного покрова и морского льда здесь значительно сократились, а южная граница вечной мерзлоты в России и Канаде сдвинулась на север. В Арктике потепление происходит вдвое быстрее против общемировых показателей. Ожидается, что к 2100 году горные ледники и ледяные покровы здесь потеряют до 30 процентов своей общей массы, а Северный Ледовитый океан в ближайшие 30—40 лет будет практически свободен от льда в летний период.
My translation:
Thirty-four nation “Strategy for the Arctic, 2011-2020”
The latest scientific research indicates that the last six years were the warmest period in the Arctic in the entire history of observation. The area of snow cover and sea ice here has significantly decreased, and the southern edge of permafrost in Russia and Canada has moved north. In the Arctic, warming is occurring twice as fast as the world average. It is expected that by 2100, mountain glaciers and ice cover here will lose up to 30% of their mass, and the Arctic Ocean in next 30 to 40 years will be practically free of ice during summer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.
Moderator:
I have collected the 236 URLs before 2:44pm into an open office spread sheet. If Anthony is interested I can email it to him.
2008 according to the Norwegian scientist Olav Orheim
Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?
http://www.norwegianmoose.com/2008/03/polar-ice-cap-melting-away-in-2008.html
“How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we’ve heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013.”
“The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer. Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer – it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 – Orheim told Xinhua that “if Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away.”
Roy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in November 2004, was a uniquely detailed study of Arctic climate compiled by 300 scientists over three years. The study found that while temperatures in the Arctic have increased significantly since 1980 (Figure 1), there was also a period in the 1930s and 1940s when temperatures were almost as warm. If one defines the Arctic as lying poleward of 62.5° north latitude (Polyakov, 2003), the 1930s and 1940s were the warmest period in the past 100 years. Looking at Figure 1, one cannot dismiss the possibility that temperatures in the Arctic oscillate in a 50-year period, and we are due for a cooling trend that will take temperatures below normal by 2030.
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
Here are the first 10 links from the Australian Broadcasting Commission that I found (there are many more);
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/24/2372862.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2366850.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/14/2445828.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/17/2367161.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2783870.html
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/05/3030213.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3029916.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1810068.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/06/29/2939896.htm
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752579.htm
I’m not sure if you wanted quotes with them – just more for you to read – so I left the quotes out.
Tim Flannery predictions:
2008
2011-2016
2013; 2040
in a few years; no more than a few decades away; 2013
eventually (with sea levels 80m higher than today)
2006: ice free arctic in 20 years: http://books.google.com/books?id=v_ZR5mYo0FcC&lpg=PA8&dq=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&pg=PA8#v=onepage&q=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&f=false
2005: ice free in summer by 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=QjM0Hb3423EC&lpg=PA471&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA471#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009 – by 2060 http://books.google.com/books?id=1q0XeRmYBi8C&pg=PA2&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAg
2008: Ice free in summer by 2013, ice free year round by 2040; http://books.google.com/books?id=eDkZr3c1uVQC&lpg=PA7&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA7#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009- in summer by 2105: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZnUl4onKLs8C&pg=PT112&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CFYQ6AEwCQ
2006: by the end of this century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WYMUXg-6kZ0C&pg=PA35&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFEQ6AEwCA
2009, by 2030 : http://books.google.com/books?id=XfTISxCa6SwC&pg=PA17&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CEwQ6AEwBw
2009, by 2013: http://books.google.com/books?id=QXo68w7QLaYC&pg=PA119&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC4Q6AEwATgK
2006, by the end of the 21st century: http://books.google.com/books?id=o7UcITvgvGsC&pg=PA9&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAzgK
2008, by mid century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WIRk6cXggkEC&pg=PA4&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBDgK
2011 by 2030: http://books.google.com/books?id=c_omk7wdL_kC&pg=PA23&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=NCAiTv3AEMS9tgeNz-2iAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC8Q6AEwATgU
http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/media/publications-teaching-alpha-112.pdf
No mention of water vapour at all as green house gas…
http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/media/publications-policy-2009-ocean-acidification-workshop-background-paper.pdf
BS PH predictions ..
Hope this helps is some small way: Phil Valentine’s Bullet Points
Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
The National Academy of Sciences report reaffirmed the existence of the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 AD to 1300 AD and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850. Both of these periods occurred long before the invention of the SUV or human industrial activity could have possibly impacted the Earth’s climate. In fact, scientists believe the Earth was warmer than today during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland.
What the climate alarmists and their advocates in the media have continued to ignore is the fact that the Little Ice Age, which resulted in harsh winters which froze New York Harbor and caused untold deaths, ended about 1850. So trying to prove man-made global warming by comparing the well-known fact that today’s temperatures are warmer than during the Little Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to show a catastrophic temperature trend.
Something that the media almost never addresses are the holes in the theory that C02 has been the driving force in global warming. Alarmists fail to adequately explain why temperatures began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850, long before man-made CO2 emissions could have impacted the climate. Then about 1940, just as man-made CO2 emissions rose sharply, the temperatures began a decline that lasted until the 1970’s, prompting the media and many scientists to fear a coming ice age.
A letter sent to the Canadian Prime Minister on April 6, 2006 by 60 prominent scientists who question the basis for climate alarmism, clearly explains the current state of scientific knowledge on global warming. The 60 scientists wrote: “If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.” The letter also noted: “‘Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes occur all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural ‘noise.”
In 2006, the director of the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks Alaska, testified to Congress that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than “science fiction.”
“Geologists Think the World May be Frozen Up Again.” That sentence appeared over 100 years ago in the February 24, 1895 edition of the New York Times.
A front page article in the October 7, 1912 New York Times, just a few months after the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank, declared that a prominent professor “Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age.” The very same day in 1912, the Los Angeles Times ran an article warning that the “Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.” An August 10, 1923 Washington Post article declared: “Ice Age Coming Here.”
By the 1930’s, the media took a break from reporting on the coming ice age and instead switched gears to promoting global warming: “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” stated an article in the New York Times on March 27, 1933.
The media of yesteryear was also not above injecting large amounts of fear and alarmism into their climate articles. An August 9, 1923 front page article in the Chicago Tribune declared: “Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.” The article quoted a Yale University professor who predicted that large parts of Europe and Asia would be “wiped out” and Switzerland would be “entirely obliterated.”
A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed “the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.” The article also warned that unless government officials reacted to the coming catastrophe, “mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence” would result. In 1975, the New York Times reported that “A major cooling [was] widely considered to be inevitable.”
On February 19, 2006, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” produced a segment on the North Pole. The segment was a completely one-sided report, alleging rapid and unprecedented melting at the polar cap. It even featured correspondent Scott Pelley claiming that the ice in Greenland was melting so fast, that he barely got off an ice-berg before it collapsed into the water. “60 Minutes” failed to inform its viewers that a 2005 study by a scientist named Ola Johannessen and his colleagues showing that the interior of Greenland is gaining ice and mass and that according to scientists, the Arctic was warmer in the 1930’s than today.
According to data released on July 14, 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the January through June Alaska statewide average temperature was “0.55F (0.30C) cooler than the 1971-2000 average.”
In August 2006, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist who heads the space research sector for the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted long-term global cooling may be on the horizon due to a projected decrease in the sun’s output.
BBC Feb 2001 Global warming ‘could melt Arctic’ and thawing of permafrost in Siberia – “It is predicted that by 2030 most buildings in cities like Yakutsk and Tikisi could be lost”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1178764.stm
=======================
http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/08/researchers-discover-irrefutable-proof-that-arctic-sea-ice-had-disappeared-in-the-mid1800s.html
=============
http://wwf.panda.org/about-our-earth/aboutcc/problems/impacts/polar-melting/
“Northwest passage was ice free for the first time in history in 2007.”
========================================
Gore –
http://scaredmonkeys.com/2011/02/14/an-inconvenient-global-warming-prediction-al-gore-says-north-pole-will-be-completely-ice-free-in-next-five-years/
Al Gore said this in 2009, also said in 2008 and 2007
&
http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/tech-mainmenu-30/environment/2871-are-the-ice-caps-melting
Gore – “The entire polar ice cap … could be completely ice free within the next five to seven years.” said last dec 2009
And has a terrific report from NOAA’s Monthly Weather Review November 1922 of big melt in Arctic.
==========
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=205698
2009 Even Tehran gets the news from AP – “Explorers: North Pole summers ice free in 10 years”
============
http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA218.html
October 1998 Buenos Aires Conference On Global Warming: Much Ado About Nothing by John Carlisle National P0licy Analysis
A good read blast from the past – IPCC backtracking on temp predictions, Hansen saying he got it wrong, and lot more including no evidence of Arctic warming and more ice result of global warming – is that the first example?
=========
http://www.thegwpf.org/best-of-blogs/2790-the-bbc-and-salami-climatology.html
About the Maslowski adjustments from 2013 to 2016
=================
2009 Power Games in the Arctic Ocean – take these predictions seriously, 2013 and 2037 mentioned.
http://www.institutenorth.org/assets/images/uploads/files/Power.pdf
=====================
http://globalwarminghoax.wordpress.com/?s=arctic+prediction
Al Gore’s Recycled Doom – has Ehrlich quotes from 1989 and 1990 – you could tie your boat to the Washington Monument..
===============
http://www.bluemarble4us.com/
Has a graphic from US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Showing ice 100% in 1950 and 54% in 2050 – though it looks a lot less in 2050 than 54% – but maybe I just can’t read sea ice thicknesses.
I should have clarified, but you’ve probably figured it out already- the first date is the date of publication, then I give the date of the estimated disappearance of the ice, then the link. I searched at Google books.
2008, by 2020: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZBhNrtPp6DcC&pg=PA210&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by+2020%22&hl=en&ei=CSIiTpO1NI6utweJubC_Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAA
2006: Measurements from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland (an enormous frozen island), and the northwestern shores of Alaska show that floating sea ice … which has been topped with ice for at least 11700 years may be ice-free within 15 years.http://books.google.com/books?id=Yhmar5MiFF8C&pg=PA473&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=iyIiTsnpBoW5twf6m5CsAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&sqi=2&ved=0CEIQ6AEwBQ
2009/10: It is estimated that Arctic summers will be ice-free within 10 years, and the landscapes of the Antarctic will change beyond recognition by 2050. http://books.google.com/books?id=EBLH9KR69JEC&pg=PA90&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=DygiTrHSMIqjtgfnubHOAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwADgK
2007: In the summer of 2006 the Arctic ice area was two million square kilometres less than usual. The latest forecast is that all summer ice in the Arctic will have gone by 2040 at the latest.http://books.google.com/books?id=ApIdAQAAIAAJ&q=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&sqi=2&ved=0CDoQ6AEwAw
2009: And this prediction is from only one model, while many others show the ice will be gone before 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=HDfB3jc62agC&pg=PA98&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&sqi=2&ved=0CD4Q6AEwBA
2003: and if the rate of retreat seen over the last 30 years continues, it is predicted that all will be gone in 50 years time… http://books.google.com/books?id=w8a6lZPMrnUC&pg=PA280&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&sqi=2&ved=0CEkQ6AEwBg