No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.
Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.
This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.
This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.
Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.
I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.
Anthony
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Here’s one from Ban Ki Moon in 2009, avidly reported by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (I submitted a complaint after this was on BBC TV News):
“If this trend is not stopped, we may have a virtually ice-free Arctic within 30 years,”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8230921.stm
BBC
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
This is one of my book marks:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/
I think this fits the bill, and you probably already know about it. 🙂
Anthony, I often use “Google Scholar” for these quick & dirty projects. I entered “arctic ice free” into the search bar and found numerous hits, including many free .pdf downloads. Please see:
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=arctic+ice+free&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C14&as_sdtp=on
I hope that helps, email me if you need more specific help or need copies of the actual papers. I can get past paywalls with my UIC sign-in. Cheers, Charles the DrPH
by 2013 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
by 2019 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
by 2030 http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
by 2015 to 2020 http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845
maybe by 2031 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
And also the ice cap was already gone last year according to this report:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 – something that hasn’t happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher. this according to Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet.
More from the BBC:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm
From ClimateCrisis.net, “The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050” with a footnote: “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Also quoted in Time Magazine, Vicious Cycles, Missy Adams, March 26, 2006.”
See >here.
http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
“NOAA cites as its source on Arctic sea ice a study published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters by J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang. (Overland works for NOAA at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Wang is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, in Seattle.)
http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
In their study, Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.” (quoted text from http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845)
Second prediction is 2013: Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, source http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Hard to tell which if these are the same study, repeated by difference media outlets. It’s kind of shocking how many of these are out there though. But here is one:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
Not sure if these qualify, but here are a couple from old newspapers.
Calgary Herald 1972 – ice-free within 20 – 40 years:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=cGxkAAAAIBAJ&sjid=GH0NAAAAIBAJ&pg=2702,2002323
Deseret News 1959 – ice-free “in not too many decades”:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=eYxSAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Q0gDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4992,1227845
Headline: North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
Dateline: June 20, 2008
Source: National Geographic News
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080620-north-pole.html
http://viewfromthenorthernface.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/record-melt-will-see-arctic-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030/
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/a-face-off-over-arctic-sea-ice/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/sep/02/john-kerry/kerry-claims-arctic-will-be-ice-free-2013/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wade-norris/rejoice-ice-free-arctic-s_b_322751.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,316501,00.html
Then, of course, there are these clowns:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-15/world/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt_1_sea-ice-arctic-ocean-thicker-ice?_s=PM:WORLD
This is a good one:
“Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Friday, 27 June 2008”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-scientists-warn-that-there-may-be-no-ice-at-north-pole-this-summer-855406.html
The Praeger Handbook on Contemporary Issues in Native America by Bruce Elliott Johansen, Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT (2007), p. 285:
Watt-Cloutier told a climate-change conference in Seattle on October 27, 2003, “I am not being alarmist when I say that many inuit leaders have concluded that the long term impact of climate change is the ‘ultimate’ threat facing [the] Inuit.” By 2070 to 2090, said Watt-Cloutier, scientific projections suggest that year-round sea ice will be limited to a small portion of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. The rest of the arctic will be ice-free in summer.
More long-term than most:
“Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105”
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
Hi Anthony
I have copied and pasted various web links below, I typed in “when will arctic be ice free” into google and got 1.5 million websites. Since you are supposed to be taking it a bit easier and attending to other things I have not copied the other 1,499,993 links. You are right of course there is an absolute wealth of b******t out there.
Hope this helps
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm From Dec 2007
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-g lobal-warming.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-wi thin-a-decade.html ( I am surprised at the Daily Telegraph spouting such drivel)
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2010/will-the-arctic-be-free-of-summer -sea-ice-in-30-years
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-i dUSTRE59E18W20091015
motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/05/chart-day-arctic-sea-ice
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/10/climatechange.arctic
Here’s a newspaper article from 1926. The North Pole was pretty much ice free in 1926, as reported by the crew of the first dirigible flight across the N. Pole:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=5louAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oNkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6377,694076&dq=north-pole+water&hl=en
Today’s North Pole ice cover is huge by comparison. And then there’s John Daly’s report of open water at the formerly solid ice covered, impenetrable Polar region back in 1817:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.”
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Research Project: http://www.skepticalscience.com/icefreearctic.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
http://www.350resources.org.uk/2011/04/08/arctic-summers-predicted-to-be-ice-free-by-2016/
http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
Ok, I’m having too much fun doing this. One more:
“NCAR News Release
Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040
December 11, 2006”
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
Last Chance: Preserving Life on Earth by Larry J. Schweiger, Theodore Roosevelt, IV, Fulcrum Publishing (2009), p. 24:
[Maslowski] warned scientists that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.
Also on p. 109.:
Another instance in a long line of US media failures occurred on December 12, 2007, when Wieslaw Maslowski, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told a large gathering at the American Geophysical Union meeting that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.
Here’s my contribution:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
http://toryaardvark.com/2011/07/12/no-the-arctic-wont-now-be-ice-free-in-2012-but-it-might-be-by-2030/
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years-20110712-1hbl8.html
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/27/norweigan-expert-arctic-ice-free-in-2008/
http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050824081334.htm
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
http://hot-topic.co.nz/gone-for-good-arctic-ocean-ice-free-all-year-by-the-2040s/
http://en.mercopress.com/2011/01/30/north-pole-waters-will-soon-be-ice-free-new-report-says
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/arctic-to-become-ice-free-in-next-30-to-50-years/156555-2.html
“This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
Sorry in my haste I lost the link to the article I took this from. I hope you can find it if I cannot.
I liked this one.
It is not about Arctic Ice but that was just an example wasn’t it ?
http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/#ixzz1SI8Sz6p2