I need your help for a short research project

Here’s one from Ban Ki Moon in 2009, avidly reported by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (I submitted a complaint after this was on BBC TV News):
“If this trend is not stopped, we may have a virtually ice-free Arctic within 30 years,”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8230921.stm

This is one of my book marks:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/
I think this fits the bill, and you probably already know about it. 🙂

by 2013 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
by 2019 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
by 2030 http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
by 2015 to 2020 http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845
maybe by 2031 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free

More from the BBC:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm

http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf

Hard to tell which if these are the same study, repeated by difference media outlets. It’s kind of shocking how many of these are out there though. But here is one:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html

Headline: North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
Dateline: June 20, 2008
Source: National Geographic News
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080620-north-pole.html

Then, of course, there are these clowns:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-15/world/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt_1_sea-ice-arctic-ocean-thicker-ice?_s=PM:WORLD
This is a good one:
“Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Friday, 27 June 2008”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-scientists-warn-that-there-may-be-no-ice-at-north-pole-this-summer-855406.html

More long-term than most:
“Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105”
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html

Ok, I’m having too much fun doing this. One more:
“NCAR News Release
Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040
December 11, 2006”
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml

Here’s my contribution:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html
http://toryaardvark.com/2011/07/12/no-the-arctic-wont-now-be-ice-free-in-2012-but-it-might-be-by-2030/
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years-20110712-1hbl8.html
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/27/norweigan-expert-arctic-ice-free-in-2008/
http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050824081334.htm
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/

http://hot-topic.co.nz/gone-for-good-arctic-ocean-ice-free-all-year-by-the-2040s/
http://en.mercopress.com/2011/01/30/north-pole-waters-will-soon-be-ice-free-new-report-says
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/arctic-to-become-ice-free-in-next-30-to-50-years/156555-2.html

I liked this one.
It is not about Arctic Ice but that was just an example wasn’t it ?
http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/#ixzz1SI8Sz6p2

Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax, by Larry Bell, Austin TX (2011), p. 145:
Citing new research undertaken at the US Navy’s Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Mr. Gore told attendees, “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. [Wieslaw] Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years . . . It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this.”
Scientists wwre astonished by Gore’s statements. One was none other than Dr. Maslowski himself, who responded, “It’s unclear to me how the figure was arrived at […”]

Found it:
http://globalwarming.house.gov/mediacenter/pressreleases?id=0142

The arctic has been beaten to death.
Let’s branch out.
Holdren’s predictions :
Excerpt: Senator David Vitter (R-Louisiana): OK. Another statement. In 1986, you predicted that global warming could cause the deaths of one billion people by 2020. Would you stick to that statement today?
Holdren: Well, again, I wouldn’t have called it a prediction then, and I wouldn’t call it a prediction now. I think it is unlikely to happen, but it is …
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=2794

1. Arctic will be ice-free within a decade, Telegraph, UK, Apr 2009
Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years. He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
2. Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’, BBC, December 2007
– “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski] from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Holdren is quite quotable and always wrong !
He is like a stopped clock except a stopped clock is right 2 times a day and Holdren is NEVER RIGHT.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/

I’m sure everyone remembers this one
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/22/a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-prediction-by-dr-james-hansen/
Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Michaels has it as 20 years, not 40 years, with no mention of doubled CO2. Reiss verified this fact to me, but he later sent the message:
“I went back to my book and re-read the interview I had with you. I am embarrassed to say that although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years. What I asked you originally at your office window was for a prediction of what Broadway would look like in 40 years, not 20. But when I spoke to the Salon reporter 10 years later probably because I’d been watching the predictions come true, I remembered it as a 20 year question.“

FreshNor says,
“”””Projecting the trend into the future indicates that [Artic] autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016 (Maslowski, 2009).”””
FreshNor consortium: Danish Climate Centre, DMI Rossby Centre, SMHI (Sweden), Iceland Meteorological Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway), Greenland Institute of Natural Resources.
Their link: http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
Hope that helps.
John

Maslowski’s “study” (cited above) was probably the most famous alarmist screed, predicting total melt by 2013. He’s moved that up a bit to a ‘best guess’ of 2016 (+/- 3yrs).
Better hurry.
http://breakingnewsdir.com/new-warning-on-arctic-ice-melt-204763.html

But it went ice-free in 2008!
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2008/04/arctic-ice-free-in-2008.html
And if it didn’t, it will be by 2015:
http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0831-arctic.html

Of course, none of these dates are predictions. No, they’re merely projections (definition of projection: n. forecast; guestimation; similar to a prediction, but one that can be announced with utter confidence and absolutely no accountability).
So, cue Swedish poodle-rockers Europe with their hit “The final Countdown” (to ice-free Arctic summers):
By 2105 (published 2005):
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050824081334.htm
By 2060-2080 (published 2009):
http://www.modelmayhem.com/po.php?thread_id=519495&page=1
By 2040 (published 2006):
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/12/061212-arctic-ice.html
By 2030 (published 2011):
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
By 2020 (published 2010):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
By 2019 (published 2009):
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12627&page=104
By 2015 (published 2008 and updated 2010):
http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/
By 2012 (!) (published 2007 – the original Associated Press story has been removed, but the story is still found on an alarmist blog here):
http://easygrowhouseplants.blogspot.com/2007/12/arctic-to-be-ice-free-by-2050-2040-now.html
Now look at the watch… LOOK, I tells yer!.. you are feeling sleepy… your eyelids are very heavy… you’re going back in time… back… back… back…
By 2000 (published 1973):
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/30/arctic-to-be-ice-free-by-the-year-2000/
By 1989 (published 1969)
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/25/experts-1969-arctic-ice-free-within-two-decades/
By 125000 BC (published 2008 – OK, not a prediction, so probably right)
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html

The Arctic may not yet be ice free as predicted, but it’s probably all rotten ice anyway.
/justkidding

It’s all about where you go to look for what you’re looking for, so in your case try scholar.google.com with the actual phrase: “ice free arctic”, and you’ll get a wealth of hippie doom and gloom information about the arctic ice. My first rendered 20 links covering, in various degrees of interest, 1966 to 2009.
The paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, from 1966: The Heat Budgets of an Ice-Free and an Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean, by Donn and Shaw, seems befitting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’ ……….By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco 12 December 2007
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. ..Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.
Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

Sen. Kerry Predicts ‘Ice-Free Arctic’ In ‘5 or 10 Years’
Speaking at a town hall-style meeting promoting climate change legislation on Thursday, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) predicted there will be "an ice-free Arctic" in "five or 10 years."
Thursday, July 22, 2010
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845
Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years
The Guardian, Wednesday 5 September 2007 Dr Serreze (US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver ) said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children’s lifetimes.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/05/climatechange.sciencenews
Arctic’s First Ice-Free Summer Possible Even This Year
June 27, 2008
Satellite data gathered by the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center showed that young sea ice, which is no more than about 60 inches deep and much more susceptible to melting away, now makes up 72 percent of the Arctic ice sheet.
Andy Mahoney, a center researcher, has pinpointed this year in particular as having the “greatest chance” of being ice-free.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=5265092&page=1
Arctic to be ice-free in summer in 20 years: scientist
Thu Oct 15, 2009 2:37pm EDT LONDON (Reuters) – Global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the summer within 20 years, raising sea levels and harming wildlife such as seals and polar bears, a leading British polar scientist said on Thursday.
Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, said much of the melting will take place within a decade, although the winter ice will stay for hundreds of years.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-idUSTRE59E18W20091015
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
5:01PM GMT 12 Dec 2007
And Nasa climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Ice-free Arctic in summer seen in 7 years
December 14, 2007|By Laurie Goering
Warning that the pace of climate change is quickly accelerating beyond previous scientific predictions, meteorologists predicted Thursday at UN climate talks in Bali that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer within seven years, rather than the half-century once expected. ….. The pace of melting of sea ice has been “dramatic,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the UN agency, noting that the extent of Arctic summer sea ice has fallen 23 percent in just two years.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2007-12-14/news/0712140047_1_sea-ice-climate-talks-ice-free
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
4/7/2011 Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade. The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers. Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
“Things are happening much faster in the Arctic. I think it will be summer ice-free by 2015,” said David Barber, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba. http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/

Here’s one from NOAA: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html

Here are two goodies:
http://articles.cnn.com/2008-06-27/world/north.pole.melting_1_mark-serreze-arctic-sea-ice-national-snow?_s=PM:WORLD CNN says “ice Free” in Summer 2008
Then Sen. Kerry opines: ‘Ice free in 5 to 10 years”
http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845
But it was “ice free” 3 M years ago!
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=366797

If I’ve doubled up I apologize :http://news.google.com/newspapers
Maybe this is all the link you will need: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/

Well, every example I know of is already listed!
What an exellent crowd to source! Congratulations.
Looks like there may be something to work with, to put it very mildly

http://www.washington.edu/news/archive/48419

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811/map-arctic
The Atlantic, Scott Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance at the Council on Foreign Relations. 2008/11
BEFORE OUR EYES, the Arctic is changing from an impenetrable wasteland into an oceanic crossroads. The polar ice cap has lost up to half its thickness near the North Pole in just the past six years and may have passed a tipping point; it is now shrinking at more than three times the rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change only four years ago. At the current pace, the Arctic may well be ice-free in summer by 2013.

2050 per http://psc.apl.washington.edu/BEST/PSW2007/PSW07_modelpredictions.html

What’s the problem? Think positive!
http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/arcticice.htm

Just put it on http://www.Digg.com

http://butnowyouknow.wordpress.com/those-who-fail-to-learn-from-history/climate-change-timeline/
Peter Walsh, Dublin, Ireland: I posted this on Bishop hill a few days ago.

Science 17 September 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5691 p. 1693
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5691.1693a
NEWS OF THE WEEK
PALEOCEANOGRAPHY
Signs of a Warm, Ice-Free Arctic
“..meters of mud cored should be a record of the last ice-free Arctic summers of millions of years ago, conditions that may return in the greenhouse world of 2100.”
Science 13 August 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5686 p. 919
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5686.919b
EDITORS’ CHOICE
CLIMATE SCIENCE
An Ice-Free Arctic?
“Their simulations predict that the Arctic will be almost free of sea ice during the summers toward the end of the this century (for another climate prediction for the late 21st century, see Meehl and Tebaldi, this issue, p. 994). — HJS”
Tellus A56, 328 (2004).
Science 16 March 2007:
Vol. 315 no. 5818 pp. 1533-1536
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139426
REVIEW
Perspectives on the Arctic’s Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover
“Rates of ice loss both for the past few decades and those projected through the 21st century nevertheless vary widely between individual models. Our analyses show that in the IPCC AR4 models driven with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario (in which atmospheric CO2 reaches 720 parts per million by 2100), a near-complete or complete loss (to less than 1 × 106 km2) of September ice will occur anywhere from 2040 to well beyond the year 2100, depending on the model and the particular run for that model”
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328 no. 5985 pp. 1523-1528
DOI: 10.1126/science.1189930
REVIEW
The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5985/1523/DC1
“(D) The loss of summer sea ice by 2040 in the Arctic will have a strong impact on a range of dependent organisms, both above and below the ice.”

Dunno if it will help any, but heres my contribution.
I do recommend that if anyone has an account at LexisNexis that they might be able to do a more encompassing search.
“In 2006, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that we might see an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century.
Now it seems that the panel’s prediction may come true much sooner than expected, perhaps within a decade. ”
“Watching the Arctic Melt Away” ANGUS HINES May 12, 2008
http://abcnews.go.com/International/Weather/story?id=4836998&page=1
“We could have an ice-free Arctic by the year 2070, by the year 2080. In the last few years those predictions have come way, way in towards the present and now we’re saying maybe 2030, maybe 2020.”
Program Transcript – Marian Wilkinson’s “The Tipping Point” DR TED SCAMBOS 04/08/2008
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2323805.htm
“Researchers fear sea levels could be rising much faster than first thought with some scientists predicting an ice-free Arctic by the summer of 2100. ”
“Rapidly Melting Glaciers Fuel Rising Sea Levels” Unnamed Reporter – Sept. 24, 2007
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/TenWays/story?id=3642325
‘”There may well be an ice-free Arctic by the middle of the century,” Christopher Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told the seminar, accusing the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of underestimating the melt.’
“Islands emerge as Arctic ice shrinks to record low” Alister Doyle – Aug 20, 2007
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/08/20/uk-climate-ice-idUKL2069726720070820

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
Seth Borenstein in Washington
Associated Press
December 12, 2007
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
————————
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php
TreeHugger:
Arctic Ice Cap Could be Gone by the Summer
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 03. 2.08
————————
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/13/994113/-Arctic-Ocean-ice:-gone-in-7-years
Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 04:35 AM PDT
Arctic Ocean ice: gone in 7 years
by Keith Pickering
I’ve added a quadratic fit to the data, and the curve hits zero in about 2018, just seven years from now. Given the uncertainty in the data, the actual zero point could be a few years either way from that projection – but probably not by much. …
Not only is the volume falling off a cliff (declining, and accelerating as it declines), but we’ve only got a few years left before we hit zero sea ice volume in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer.
————————
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/13/280501/-Arctic-Ice:-Going,-Going–Gone
Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 03:49 AM PST
Arctic Ice: Going, Going … Gone?
by DarkSyde for Daily Kos
Quoting:
ABC News — A team of scientists from the United States and Canada has found new evidence about the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic. Data presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union suggests all year-round ice could disappear by the year 2040. The scientists also believe recent research shows a tipping point which would trigger a rapid melting is fast approaching.
————————
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/2312253/Arctic-ice-gone-in-30-years
Arctic ice ‘gone in 30 years’
Last updated 09:20 03/04/2009
Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years.
…
The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles (7.25 million sq km) normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
————————
http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/
Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist
QUEBEC CITY, Canada, Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years
[update Apr 29 2010: “When the sea ice melts, more heat is absorbed by the water. The warmer water then heats the atmosphere above it…this feedback system has warmed the atmosphere at a faster rate.” Confirms loss of sea ice is rapidly warming Arctic — Study in Nature yesterday. – SL]
————————

Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation)
Melting Trends: Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
————————
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8005620/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-by-2030.html
Saturday 16 July 2011
Arctic ice could be gone by 2030
Arctic sea ice melted over the summer to cover the third smallest area on record, US researchers have said, warning that global warming could leave the region ice free by September 2030.
Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said…
Arctic ice was disappearing by 11 per cent per decade, he said.
“Our thinking is that by 2030 or so, if you went out to the Arctic on the first of September, you probably won’t see any ice at all. It will look like a blue ocean, we’re losing it that quickly,” he said.
————————
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
By agencies
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the US government’s Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.
————————
http://hot-topic.co.nz/feel-floes-gone-by-2016/
Feel floes (gone by 2016)
by Gareth on April 27, 2010
… the Arctic could be effectively ice-free in summer within ten years — possibly as soon as 2013.
————————
http://hot-topic.co.nz/five-years-threnody-for-arctic-sea-ice/
Five years (threnody for Arctic sea ice)
by Gareth on October 16, 2010
Bottom line: if the relationship between ice volume and extent evident in the NSIDC and PIOMAS data over the last 21 years continues in the near future, then the Arctic will be effectively ice-free in late summer sometime between 2015 and 2020
————————
http://www.countercurrents.org/lowe161009.htm
Most Arctic Sea Ice ‘Gone In Decade’
By Tom Lowe
16 October, 2009
The Independent
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates.
————————
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
————————
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
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http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/outposts/2009/04/artic-sea-ice-may-be-gone-in-30-yearswhat-will-become-of-wildlife.html
Arctic sea ice gone in 30 years — what will become of wildlife?
We knew polar bears were in trouble, what with the Arctic ice they require for survival disappearing at an alarming rate. …
A report on the issue, by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, will appear in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles to 620,000 square miles within 30 years. That represents serious shrinkage, with frightening implications for wildlife and humans.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/29/us-climate-canada-arctic-idUSTRE59S3LT20091029
Multiyear Arctic ice is effectively gone: expert
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA | Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01pm EDT
But David Barber, Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.
“We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere,” he said in a presentation in Parliament.
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http://www.tourism-review.tv/natural-heritage-sites-videocategory12
Video: Catlin Arctic Survey – October 2009
“the North Pole will be an open sea during the summer months within twenty years.”
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http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2010/06/when-will-arctic-ice-be-gone.html
Thursday, June 3, 2010
When will Arctic ice be gone?
The short answer, before I give you all the qualifiers needed to make sense of it, is 2035, give or take 7 years.
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http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Perrenial_Sea_Ice.html
The Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Could Be Gone by End of the Century
10.23.03
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http://www.euronews.net/2009/10/15/arctic-ice-gone-in-20-years-says-leading-expert/
Arctic ice gone in 20 years says leading expert
15/10/09 19:12 CET
The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summertime within 20 years, according to one of the world’s leading experts in the field. Professor Peter Wadham’s analysis was based on an extensive survey of polar ice.
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http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/10/08/walrus_pla.html
Melting Sea Ice Forcing Walruses Ashore
Dan Joling, Associated Press
Oct. 8, 2007
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.
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http://drtimball.com/2011/rate-of-arctic-ice-melt-each-day-now-equals-the-size-of-west-virginia/
Rate of Arctic Ice Melt Each Day Now Equals the Size of West Virginia
by Dr. Tim Ball on June 8, 2011
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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=780
Polar ice cap gone by 2030?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:39 PM GMT on September 07, 2007
In an interview published yesterday in The Guardian Dr. Mark Serreze, and Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/most-arctic-sea-ice-gone-in-decade-1803035.html
Most Arctic sea ice ‘gone in decade’
By Tom Lowe, Press Association
Thursday, 15 October 2009
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates. …
Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics and Head of the Polar Physics Group, has spearheaded the team analysing the results.
He said: “The summer ice cover in the Arctic will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years time. There won’t be any sea ice there at all
“In much less time than that, the ice in summer will be shrinking back to this last bastion north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, so within a decade we will see a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer.
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http://www.aolnews.com/2009/12/14/polar-ice-cap-could-be-gone-in-5-years-gore-says/
Polar Ice Cap Could Be Gone in 5 Years, Gore Says
Dec 14, 2009 – 10:17 AM
Al Gore has told the U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now.\
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http://www.kidzworld.com/article/7238-polar-ice-caps-here-today-gone-tomorrow
Currently, the polar ice caps are shrinking, most likely as a result of global warming. So what does this mean? Fewer penguins? A smaller backyard for Santa? Unfortunately the impact is much bigger than that. The sea level has risen six to eight inches (15 to 20 cm) in the last 100 years, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some studies suggest that sea levels could rise as much as 20 feet by end of the century. …
Polar Ice Caps – What Can You Do? …
Tell your parents what you know about global warming and the environment. It’s important that they know as much as you do so they can vote for politicians who care about the environment.
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http://www.thehungersite.com/clickToGive/ths/article/Melting-Trends-Arctic-Ice-Completely-Gone-by-2020133;jsessionid=7757620828170B4ACF690AFBBBC2B18E.ctg-c
Better World Blog
Melting Trends : Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
May 24, 2011 10:17:00 PM by a Citizen of the World
Video:
Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation) Dan Miller
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
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http://www.cejournal.net/?p=1376
News & Perspective from the Center for Environmental Journalism
Gore: polar ice caps will melt completely “in just a few years”
posted on March 15, 2009,
Update, Sunday 3/15/09:
Evidently, Gore has misspoken about polar ice melting before. See this Youtube video in which he says the entire north polar ice cap may be gone in five years…
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http://beyond2012hq.com/will-2012-be-the-end-for-arctic-summer-ice/
August 28, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Arctic Summer Ice Gone by 2012
In 2007, scientists examined the record ice melt over the Arctic to attempt to assess the cause and to identify if it was a realistic indicator of future happenings or just a blip.
Revised estimates confirm that the accelerated melt is continuing and within 3 years there will be no summer ice in the Arctic.
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http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=208
Arctic sea ice: going, going, gone
28 October 2008
In autumn 2007, sea-ice reached its lowest point ever recorded. 2008 came close to surpassing this record. Computer models predict the Arctic may be ice-free in summer by 2030.
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http://ecology.com/features/vanishing-artic-ice-cap/vanishing-artic-ice-cap.html
The Vanishing of the Arctic Ice Cap
By Eric McLamb
Not only is the Arctic ice cap shrinking, it is shrinking at a pace that places its disappearance two to three decades ahead of the gloomiest previous forecasts. It is now generally predicted that the Arctic ice cap will totally disappear in 20 – 25 years, …
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————————
http://current.com/green/88653981_polar-ice-gone-by-2012.htm
December 11, 2007
Polar ice gone by 2012?
source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
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http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
Source of above article. Missing.
————————
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/15/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt/index.html?iref=storysearch
Arctic ice to vanish in summer, report says
updated 6:55 p.m. EDT, Thu October 15, 2009
# Story Highlights
# New report says Arctic sea ice will largely disappear in summer within a decade
# Survey captured latest data on ice thickness in Northern part of Beaufort Sea
# Measurements show the ice-floes surveyed were on average 1.8 meters thick
# Scientists warn that Arctic ice melt is likely to set off “powerful climate feedbacks”
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http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctics-vanishing-sea-ice-presents-polar-bear-with-a-new-danger-ndash-grizzlies-2161640.html
Arctic’s vanishing sea ice presents polar bear with a new danger – grizzlies
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Thursday, 16 December 2010
“The Arctic Ocean is predicted to be ice-free in summer before the end of the century, removing a continent-sized barrier to interbreeding…”
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http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2009-08-09-canada-ice_N.htm
Large expanses of Arctic ice melt away in summer heat
Updated 8/9/2009 8:26 PM
At a global conference last March in Copenhagen, scientists declared that climate change is occurring faster than had been anticipated, citing the fast-dying Arctic cap as one example. A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted.
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2009/08/10/summer-ice-melt-arctic.html
Arctic ice watchers concerned by warm summer
Last Updated: Monday, August 10, 2009 | 8:29 AM CT
The Associated Press
A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted
————————

Joe Romm:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/07/16/266463/arctic-ice-at-record-low-nsidc-director-serreze-ice-free-summer-by-2030-downward-spiral/
SciGuy:
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2010/09/climate-interview-arctic-ice-expert-robert-correll-on-rapid-melting-and-why-it-should-concern-us/
Sky News:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/North-Pole-Ice-Set-For-Massive-Melt-Arctic-Ocean-Set-To-Be-Open-Sea-By-2020/Article/200910215405968
The We:
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm
Carbon brief:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/05/political-tension-in-the-arctic-ratchets-up-as-sea-ice-melts
Demand Side:
http://www.demandsideeconomics.net/2011/04/transcript-432-what-is-economics.html
Guardian/David Adam:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/15/arctic-survey-ice-melting
EarthSky:
http://earthsky.org/earth/claire-parkinson-on-disappearing-sea-ice-and-its-impacts
Peter Griffiths/Reuters/Sweetness…
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/ice-free-arctic-alarmist-funded-by-wwf
Sydney Morning Herald/Marian Wilkinson quoting Robie Macdonald
http://www.smh.com.au/news/global-warming/climate-of-fear-as-ice-vanishes/2008/08/03/1217701855502.html

I thought there was a UK project to transcribe/copy the ship logs of Her Majesty’s Navy into a computer database. These would include records far older than the 1817 article that was found. Anyone know something about this? These recods may not be on the Internet yet, but might be available another way in the UK. While not specifically predictions of global warming, they would document a lack of ice in the Arctic.
Any Icelandic sagas that speak to this topic? They could be even older.

Here is a discussion titled “Arctic Sea Ice decline in the 21st Century” at RealClimate by Cecilia Bitz
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/arctic-sea-ice-decline-in-the-21st-century/
Bitz is responding to many of the newspaper articles based upon one of her papers.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
NOAA Apr 2,2009
We’ll have an ice free arctic within 30 years….

I wish to leave another avenue of inquiry, for your consideration. How about the use of the word “accelerating,” as in accelerating sea rises. Here is my concerns, each accepting the argument that “global warming” is primarily caused by man made ghgs in the past decades:
1. Why would there be accelerating global whatever from warming if the rise in CO2 concentrations has been constant and near linear for decades, as shown in the Mauna Loa readings.
2. Given AGW theory, should it not be true that warming should be decelerating given the emissivity characteristics of the CO2 molecule losing its “power to absorb” (so to speak) logarithmically? Thanks.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/voyage-into-the-arctic-as-summer-ice-vanishes-20090324-9860.html

I count 245 References. I think this has been going for about 12 hours. That’s 20 references per hour.
By tomorrow, Anthony, you should have close to 500. I might suggest an equally hilarious exercise would be to find out how many years out (starting in 1954, with the offical start of Hot Fusion research) “practical fusion power” is placed. Typically a “new major advancement” is made about once every 3 to 5 years. At that point it is said with AUTHORITY that ‘break even” will come in 5 to 10 years, and power production in 15 to 20 years. It’s a GREAT gambit, that has them puppies “fed” for almost 60 years, to a levelized cost of $1,000,000,000 per year. (All for nothing.)

http://nsidc.org/news/press/20021207_seaice.html
http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/qthinice.asp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article767459.ece (no catastrophic prognostications with this one for the ice but bloody funny comments on drowning polar bears……….total bollocks).
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm (13/4 pages down……prediction for all gone by 2013).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080620-north-pole.html
http://www.desmogblog.com/melting-north-pole-no-problem
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=i3ZWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=2OQDAAAAIBAJ&pg=1581,5524109&dq=heat+wave+north+pole&hl=en (this one says reindeer get hit by lightning caused by artic heating…..almost as good as polar bears drowning).
http://www.lightnet.co.uk/informer/environment/20000820.htm (a rich source of dire catastrophic disastrous prognostication this one).
Right, that’s my pathetic contribution………..hope some of it helps.

I’m thinking, since crowd sourcing is to ease up the work, that maybe crowd sourcing works best with “smaller” communities for generating less work. :p

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.

2008 according to the Norwegian scientist Olav Orheim
Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?
http://www.norwegianmoose.com/2008/03/polar-ice-cap-melting-away-in-2008.html
“How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we’ve heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013.”
“The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer. Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer – it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 – Orheim told Xinhua that “if Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away.”
Roy

Here are the first 10 links from the Australian Broadcasting Commission that I found (there are many more);
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/24/2372862.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2366850.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/14/2445828.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/17/2367161.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2783870.html
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/05/3030213.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3029916.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1810068.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/06/29/2939896.htm
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752579.htm
I’m not sure if you wanted quotes with them – just more for you to read – so I left the quotes out.

2006: ice free arctic in 20 years: http://books.google.com/books?id=v_ZR5mYo0FcC&lpg=PA8&dq=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&pg=PA8#v=onepage&q=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&f=false
2005: ice free in summer by 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=QjM0Hb3423EC&lpg=PA471&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA471#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009 – by 2060 http://books.google.com/books?id=1q0XeRmYBi8C&pg=PA2&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAg
2008: Ice free in summer by 2013, ice free year round by 2040; http://books.google.com/books?id=eDkZr3c1uVQC&lpg=PA7&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA7#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009- in summer by 2105: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZnUl4onKLs8C&pg=PT112&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CFYQ6AEwCQ
2006: by the end of this century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WYMUXg-6kZ0C&pg=PA35&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFEQ6AEwCA
2009, by 2030 : http://books.google.com/books?id=XfTISxCa6SwC&pg=PA17&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CEwQ6AEwBw
2009, by 2013: http://books.google.com/books?id=QXo68w7QLaYC&pg=PA119&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC4Q6AEwATgK
2006, by the end of the 21st century: http://books.google.com/books?id=o7UcITvgvGsC&pg=PA9&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAzgK
2008, by mid century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WIRk6cXggkEC&pg=PA4&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBDgK
2011 by 2030: http://books.google.com/books?id=c_omk7wdL_kC&pg=PA23&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=NCAiTv3AEMS9tgeNz-2iAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC8Q6AEwATgU

Hope this helps is some small way: Phil Valentine’s Bullet Points
Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
The National Academy of Sciences report reaffirmed the existence of the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 AD to 1300 AD and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850. Both of these periods occurred long before the invention of the SUV or human industrial activity could have possibly impacted the Earth’s climate. In fact, scientists believe the Earth was warmer than today during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland.
What the climate alarmists and their advocates in the media have continued to ignore is the fact that the Little Ice Age, which resulted in harsh winters which froze New York Harbor and caused untold deaths, ended about 1850. So trying to prove man-made global warming by comparing the well-known fact that today’s temperatures are warmer than during the Little Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to show a catastrophic temperature trend.
Something that the media almost never addresses are the holes in the theory that C02 has been the driving force in global warming. Alarmists fail to adequately explain why temperatures began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850, long before man-made CO2 emissions could have impacted the climate. Then about 1940, just as man-made CO2 emissions rose sharply, the temperatures began a decline that lasted until the 1970’s, prompting the media and many scientists to fear a coming ice age.
A letter sent to the Canadian Prime Minister on April 6, 2006 by 60 prominent scientists who question the basis for climate alarmism, clearly explains the current state of scientific knowledge on global warming. The 60 scientists wrote: “If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.” The letter also noted: “‘Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes occur all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural ‘noise.”
In 2006, the director of the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks Alaska, testified to Congress that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than “science fiction.”
“Geologists Think the World May be Frozen Up Again.” That sentence appeared over 100 years ago in the February 24, 1895 edition of the New York Times.
A front page article in the October 7, 1912 New York Times, just a few months after the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank, declared that a prominent professor “Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age.” The very same day in 1912, the Los Angeles Times ran an article warning that the “Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.” An August 10, 1923 Washington Post article declared: “Ice Age Coming Here.”
By the 1930’s, the media took a break from reporting on the coming ice age and instead switched gears to promoting global warming: “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” stated an article in the New York Times on March 27, 1933.
The media of yesteryear was also not above injecting large amounts of fear and alarmism into their climate articles. An August 9, 1923 front page article in the Chicago Tribune declared: “Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.” The article quoted a Yale University professor who predicted that large parts of Europe and Asia would be “wiped out” and Switzerland would be “entirely obliterated.”
A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed “the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.” The article also warned that unless government officials reacted to the coming catastrophe, “mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence” would result. In 1975, the New York Times reported that “A major cooling [was] widely considered to be inevitable.”
On February 19, 2006, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” produced a segment on the North Pole. The segment was a completely one-sided report, alleging rapid and unprecedented melting at the polar cap. It even featured correspondent Scott Pelley claiming that the ice in Greenland was melting so fast, that he barely got off an ice-berg before it collapsed into the water. “60 Minutes” failed to inform its viewers that a 2005 study by a scientist named Ola Johannessen and his colleagues showing that the interior of Greenland is gaining ice and mass and that according to scientists, the Arctic was warmer in the 1930’s than today.
According to data released on July 14, 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the January through June Alaska statewide average temperature was “0.55F (0.30C) cooler than the 1971-2000 average.”
In August 2006, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist who heads the space research sector for the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted long-term global cooling may be on the horizon due to a projected decrease in the sun’s output.

I should have clarified, but you’ve probably figured it out already- the first date is the date of publication, then I give the date of the estimated disappearance of the ice, then the link. I searched at Google books.
2008, by 2020: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZBhNrtPp6DcC&pg=PA210&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by+2020%22&hl=en&ei=CSIiTpO1NI6utweJubC_Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAA
2006: Measurements from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland (an enormous frozen island), and the northwestern shores of Alaska show that floating sea ice … which has been topped with ice for at least 11700 years may be ice-free within 15 years.http://books.google.com/books?id=Yhmar5MiFF8C&pg=PA473&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=iyIiTsnpBoW5twf6m5CsAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&sqi=2&ved=0CEIQ6AEwBQ
2009/10: It is estimated that Arctic summers will be ice-free within 10 years, and the landscapes of the Antarctic will change beyond recognition by 2050. http://books.google.com/books?id=EBLH9KR69JEC&pg=PA90&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=DygiTrHSMIqjtgfnubHOAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwADgK
2007: In the summer of 2006 the Arctic ice area was two million square kilometres less than usual. The latest forecast is that all summer ice in the Arctic will have gone by 2040 at the latest.http://books.google.com/books?id=ApIdAQAAIAAJ&q=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&sqi=2&ved=0CDoQ6AEwAw
2009: And this prediction is from only one model, while many others show the ice will be gone before 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=HDfB3jc62agC&pg=PA98&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&sqi=2&ved=0CD4Q6AEwBA
2003: and if the rate of retreat seen over the last 30 years continues, it is predicted that all will be gone in 50 years time… http://books.google.com/books?id=w8a6lZPMrnUC&pg=PA280&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&sqi=2&ved=0CEkQ6AEwBg

This whole project very much needs some precise definitions, otherwise there will be a lot of hand-waving about the meaning of an ‘ice-free Arctic’ when it comes to the crunch.
When climate change fetishists say ‘ice-free’ they don’t really mean literally ice-free. They mean much less ice than now – little enough to dismiss what remains as insignificant.
We need to hold them to their literal statement by defining ‘Arctic’ and ‘ice-free’ in such a way that they cannot state the ‘Arctic is ice-free’ unless it literally is completely ice free. No icebergs, no bergy-bits, no growlers, nothing.
Time for the fetishists to come out and say precisely what they mean by ‘ice-free’.
Otherwise I’m not playing.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years-20110712-1hbl8.html
http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_ice_march_2011-76831

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
http://www.universetoday.com/84369/scientists-predict-arctic-could-be-ice-free-within-decades/
http://thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16158893/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/arctic-summer-could-be-ice-free/
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-scientists-warn-that-there-may-be-no-ice-at-north-pole-this-summer-855406.html
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-03-scientists-arctic-ice-free-decades.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/12/061212-arctic-ice.html
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/artic-may-be-icefree-by-2050-russian-expert/127548-51-96.html
http://www.thecourier.com.au/news/national/national/environment/arctic-may-be-icefree-within-30-years/2223666.aspx
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20050928_trendscontinue.html
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
http://blog.tomevslin.com/2007/10/the-ice-free-ar.html
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-15/world/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt_1_sea-ice-arctic-ocean-thicker-ice?_s=PM:WORLD
http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/coast_sea/sea-surface-temperature

Prominent players: Film Industry
Billy Liar says: July 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
<otherwise I'm not playing. You don’t need you to play, they have a captive audience in toddlers and children who don’t yet have the cognitive ability in parameters of time/space.
Ice Age: The Meltdown MArch 2006
The film exceeded expectations by opening with an $68,033,544 in its first weekend

“In the opening scene, Scrat, the saber-toothed squirrel climbs a glacier but accidentally opens a hole in it. The world of ice is slowly melting. The creatures of the Ice Age are all shown enjoying themselves on slides and pools made by the melting ice; among them the three protagonists of the first film: Manny, Sid, and Diego. Sid opens a day camp, where none of the younger creatures take him seriously, nor do Manny and Diego, which leaves Sid seeking a daring deed. Fast Tony, a local con artist is claiming that the earth will flood and that the bark and reeds which he sells are needed to stay alive. Manny dismisses the idea, but is distracted…………”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Age:_The_Meltdown
No Time for Nuts can also be found on youtube.

I’m short of time to read earlier comments and as these are well known, especially the Goracle one, apologies for the likely repeat of these. Also I haven’t checked the links lately so I hope they’re still working.
Gore in 08 – ice free arctic in 5 years http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/the-annotated-gore-climate-speech/
Pen Hadow in 09 – ice free arctic in 10 years http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6326446/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-a-decade-according-to-Pen-Hadow.html
NSIDC this year – ice free arctic within thirty years http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html

I am not sure if this counts, but it is interesting. http://www.popsci.com/content/arctic-ice-free-year
Here is one from Tory Aardvark http://toryaardvark.com/2011/07/12/no-the-arctic-wont-now-be-ice-free-in-2012-but-it-might-be-by-2030/
and one from The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
One from National Geographic http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html

ice free arctic between 2050 & 2080
paper – http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011/tcd-5-1311-2011.pdf
Recent wind driven high sea ice export in
the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea
ice decline

2035 – http://www.arcticprogress.com/2011/01/us-navy-north-pole-ice-free-2035/

By 2019, or possibly as early as 2013 according to Walt Meier.
Arctic will be ice-free within a decade
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent, The Telegraph, 7 April 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
“He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.”
Roy

By 1930 i.e. 81 years ago?
Actually that is the inference drawn in retrospect from a report by the US Weather Bureau in 1922 according to the article below. In reply to a comment querying the source the administrator said that “the weather report was issued by the US weather Bureau in November 1922 and appeared in print in the Washington Post the same month.”
I have not seen the Washington Post article by my impression is that it did not mention a specific date.
Looks like the Arctic will be ice free by 1930
http://www.simplygreencornwall.com/blog/?p=651
“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and
in some places the seals are finding the water too hot,” according
to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consul
Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and
explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate
conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
“Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met
with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth
of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great
masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,
the report continued, while at many points well-known glaciers
have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are
found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and
smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being
encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”
—US WEATHER BUREAU, 1922
Roy

I receive the BBC so will keep an eagle eye put.

This is from the biggest swedish daily newspaper. It claims the Arctic may be icefree this summer. For the first time in at least a hundred thousand years. The year was 2008….
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/nordpolen-kan-bli-isfri-i-sommar

1947
“The Arctic is Melting
A mysterious warming of the Arctic climate is slowly manifesting itself, said Dr Haas Ahlmann, Swedish geophysicist at the University of California yesterday”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/22429983?

1950
“CLIMATE CHANGE. World is warming!
The Arctic Ocean had risen about an inch in the last 80 years, due to the sun melting the ice packs.”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/49734531?

I tried to compile all the links above with a webbspider. It can be found in the google docs link below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aqbt9MMxg7tWdEU4WmRDUk1OZl85TWlCOHNvYVV2VWc&hl=en_US
I can’t guarrantee that all links are there but I think most of them are. Anyone can edit it so if you have more links or want to add information in the other collumns you can do so. Simply click on the link. And don’t forgett to save the document.

Ha!
The Arctic will be ice-free the next time you blink. And, thereafter, it will be ice free each and every time you blink.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/arctic-summers-could-be-ice-free-by-2040/article859608/
We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far,” NCAR scientist Marika Holland, the study’s lead author, said in a release.
“These changes are surprisingly rapid.”
19 December 2006

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/amcelhinney/2009/08/19/exclusive-lies-revealed-greenpeace-leader-admits-arctic-ice-exaggeration/#more-207706
Greenpeace Leader Admits Arctic Ice Exaggeration
by Phelim McAleer & Ann McElhinney‏
The outgoing leader of Greenpeace has admitted his organization’s recent claim that the Arctic Ice will disappear by 2030 was “a mistake.” Greenpeace made the claim in a July 15 press release entitled “Urgent Action Needed As Arctic Ice Melts,” which said there will be an ice-free Arctic by 2030 because of global warming.
Under close questioning by BBC reporter Stephen Sackur on the “Hardtalk” program, Gerd Leipold, the retiring leader of Greenpeace, said the claim was wrong.
“I don’t think it will be melting by 2030. … That may have been a mistake,” he said.
Link to Video
19 August 2009

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/arctic-ocean-ice-free-summer-by-2015.php
Arctic Ocean Ice-Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows – Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 09. 1.09
Science & Technology (science)
photo: Nick Russill via flickr
Anyone keeping up on the pace of Arctic summer sea ice melting, take note: Mongabay is reporting on new research presented by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark (and others) which says that if current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2015:
These latest estimates are based on new data on the rate of rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice — 2004-2008 saw a total decline of 67cm. (More on this from NASA.)
What’s more, scientists reported “rapid increases” in the amount of ice lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet — 60% of which is coming from icebergs calving off glaciers. The remaining amount is coming from increased surface melting, which is no longer confined to the southern part of the ice sheet — the amount of ice accumulating in the inland part of the ice sheet is starting to decline as well.
Read more: Mongabay
Arctic Ice Melt
Arctic Sea Ice Melt 20 Years Ahead of Schedule, Scientist Maintains Tipping Point Assertion
NASA Confirms Dramatic Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice – Multi-year Ice the Size of Alaska Lost
Arctic Just Witnessed Fastest August Ice Retreat in History

Cryosphere: The big melt
Alicia Newton
To read this article in full you may need to log in, make a payment or gain access through a site license (see right).
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/reshigh/2007/1007/full/ngeo.2007.31.html

R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions.

On Bishop Hill is an interesting list of all the climate scares in the past 114 years
Climate Change Timeline – 1895-2009
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/7/14/abraham-on-the-mwp.html
It is from Peter Walsh; to be found as the 7 th comment to the Abraham’s topic.

Why not run a book and take bets on an ice free arctic? I’d go for 2030 myself.

Amateur video of amateur opinions. Please note this is not from a reputable source.
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=7691597