Mike Mann's new sea level hockey stick

Water Hockey in New Zealand - Image from Napier Aquatic Center
Tomorrow at 15:00 EST an embargo will be lifted for a new paper to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. I have a copy, given to me by a media colleague and I intend to honor the embargo for the paper (which is open access and we’ll be able to read it in entirety) as well as the press release that accompanies it.

However, I can safely announce the existence of the paper, since Dr. Mann has already effectively broken the embargo by advertising the existence of the paper on his own website in his curriculum vitae (CV).

You can read his CV here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/cv/cv.html

The paper is:

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. (in press)

By placing this on his website, Dr. Mann appears to have jumped the starting gun a bit, since I can not find any existence of the paper in any of his co-author websites or anywhere else on the web for that matter:

While I can’t say anything about the contents of the paper or the press release, I can tell you that very little has changed in the pursuit of the hockey stick.

I’ll have the full report tomorrow when the PNAS embargo is lifted at 1500EST.

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June 19, 2011 4:26 pm

Quick! The DSM-5 is still being prepared, they might want to add an entry regarding “Hockeystickmania”.

Randy Links
June 19, 2011 4:57 pm

Let me guess the conclusion: models show catastophic sea level rise in the near term…more research required.

Anything is possible
June 19, 2011 4:58 pm

My home is about 120 feet above sea level.
Without giving anything away, Anthony, can you please advise whether putting it on the market first thing in the morning would be a smart move.
TIA.

Ed Barbar
June 19, 2011 5:04 pm

I was under the impression we have been told repeatedly we need to trust Scientists. So what IS Michael Mann? A statistician? A physicist? If there all MM is doing is measuring things and running stats on it, I would assume there are people in the world who have better credentials to do the statistics, like, say, a statistician.
All this “Trust the scientists” is very confusing, if what the “scientists” are doing is playing at being statisticians. Hopefully there will be some link to Dr. Mann’s area of study in physics, Geophysics, Geology, or applied math (I suppose there is some statistics in applied math).

June 19, 2011 5:13 pm

Going by Mann’s reputation and past practice, I suspect that his conclusion will be something like this, instead of the latest satellite data.

June 19, 2011 5:17 pm

Help! We’re all going to drown. Or more likely die of massive head trauma brought on by smashing our heads into walls from listening to crap.

June 19, 2011 5:25 pm

omnologos said:
June 19, 2011 at 4:26 pm
>Quick! The DSM-5 is still being prepared, they might want to add an entry regarding “Hockeystickmania”.
LOL – good one!
I read that Narcissistic Personality Disorder is to be deleted from DSM-5:
http://tinyurl.com/37fh86r
…prolly in honour of Obama.
DSM-5/AR5: Coincidence?

jeez
June 19, 2011 5:31 pm

Ed Barbar,
Mann doesn’t take measurements. He takes other researchers’ data and mines it using “novel” and “new” methods. Or as an objective observer is likely to conclude, he tortures it until it confesses.
I think some of the commenters here, such as Anything Is Possible are missing the likely point of the new study. It will simply be a reinforcement that the current conditions are unprecendentatively worse than ever, and that the Vikings were only able to colonize Greenland because they possessed fusion power and environmental suits given to them by extraterrestrials who subsequently took back their technology, destroyed all records of it, and mindwiped the Vikings who survived.

June 19, 2011 5:37 pm

Not “jumped the starting gun” … more like “jumped the shark.”
d(^_^)b
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

Ed Barbar
June 19, 2011 5:51 pm

Jeez: Thanks. Understood Mann either obtains or perhaps funds the data acquisition from his grants. I’m trying to understand if what he is doing is using statistical analysis on the data, why is he the best to do it? Does he have some great insight into statistics? Didn’t see it on his CV. Also, I have understood he made some goofs in his use of statistics in his last hockey stick graph, discovered by Steve McIntyre and friends, and further represented the data in ways some have called not “clear.” I’m thinking it might be better for someone who is an expert (or perhaps Mann is an expert), perform the statistical calculations.
“he tortures it until is confesses” . . .Love that. It’s ironic in many ways, at least to me.

DirkH
June 19, 2011 5:56 pm

Ed Barbar says:
June 19, 2011 at 5:04 pm
“I was under the impression we have been told repeatedly we need to trust Scientists. So what IS Michael Mann? A statistician? A physicist? If there all MM is doing is measuring things and running stats on it, I would assume there are people in the world who have better credentials to do the statistics, like, say, a statistician.”
Indeed.
http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf
Michael Beenstock and Yaniv Reingewertz
” …
We show that when these shortcomings are corrected, there is no evidence relating
global warming in the 20th century to the level of greenhouse gases in the long run.

This means that
an increase in CO2 emissions only has a temporary warming effect. We show that
previous investigators have confused the temporary with the permanent.
…”

AnonyMoose
June 19, 2011 5:59 pm

Must be bristlecone wave core proxies.

u.k.(us)
June 19, 2011 6:02 pm

A glutton for punishment.

Al Gored
June 19, 2011 6:08 pm

It seems undeniable that there will be Mann-made sea level rise.

H.R.
June 19, 2011 6:17 pm


June 19, 2011 at 5:31 pm
“[…] and mindwiped the Vikings who survived.”
Yeah… that’s the ticket… mindwiped the Vikings… yeah… ;o)

R. Shearer
June 19, 2011 6:29 pm

I can’t be certain. Was Mann in Vancouver on Thursday night?

Johnny Gunn
June 19, 2011 6:35 pm

You misspelled “shtick”.

June 19, 2011 6:41 pm

“Dr. Mann appears to have jumped the starting gun a bit.”
Hopefully “jumped the shark” will be the final description of it, given that his ridiculous hurricane hockey stick didn’t get much public ridicule despite withheld proxy data and being yet another example of stapling on a dubious instrumental-record blade likely biased by greater detection over the years onto a random walk trend-less proxy-based handle (see: http://climateaudit.org/2009/08/12/more-check-kiting-at-nature/).
A good sea level debunking blog is at: http://climatesanity.wordpress.com
I got screamed at on an AGW enthusiast site, told I should be ashamed of myself, that I was stupid, that I didn’t really have a Ph.D., that blah blah blah…for posting a chart of representative tide gauge records (http://oi53.tinypic.com/2i6os4y.jpg). However, the one valid point was a lack of publishing my collection in the literature. Well, I thought, let’s dig a few sea level studies up then. Imagine my surprise to not find just linear trends but universal signs of recent deceleration!
(1) Church and White, the classic purveyors of an exponentially shaped sea level curve, in their latest article update of 2011 (which eliminated the word “accelerating” from the title) plots, in hard-to-see yellow, a simple average of tide gauges, which, once I clean all the dark plots behind it away, shows stark linearity.
Graph: http://oi51.tinypic.com/28tkoix.jpg
Reference: http://www.springerlink.com/content/h2575k28311g5146/fulltext.pdf
(2) Sea levels show deceleration since 1930:
http://jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1?prevSearch=all%3A+deceleration&searchHistoryKey=
That’s the USA and Pacific Ocean, and says: “Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations.”
(3) http://jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1?prevSearch=all%3A+deceleration&searchHistoryKey=
That’s Australia (deceleration since 1940) that says: “The analysis reveals a consistent trend of weak deceleration at each of these gauge sites throughout Australasia over the period from 1940 to 2000. Short period trends of acceleration in mean sea level after 1990 are evident at each site, although these are not abnormal or higher than other short-term rates measured throughout the historical record.”
(4) http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/06-0748.1?journalCode=coas
That one says: “Unambiguous evidence for fingerprints of glacial melting was not found, most likely due to the presence of other signals present in sea-level records that cannot easily be distinguished.”
(4) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3370100203/abstract
That one is Europe and says: “no evidence was found for MSL accelerations significantly different from zero over the period 1870 to the present.”
(5) http://www.joelschwartz.com/pdfs/Holgate.pdf
That one is a world wide sampling that says: “The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century.”
(6) http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/403/Pacific_Introduction_to_SLR_-_Mitchell_et_al.pdf
That one was the Pacific based on the longest records available which says: “The estimated average rate of sea level rise from the longest records is computed to be +0.3 mm/yr, almost an order of magnitude less than the IPCC estimates.”
(7) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1771/abstract
That one was Europe and N. America which says: “Most sea-level data originate from Europe and North America, and both the sets display evidence for a positive acceleration, or ‘inflexion’, around 1920–1930 and a negative one around 1960. These inflexions are the main contributors to reported accelerations since the late 19th century, and to decelerations during the mid- to late 20th century.”
(8) A study by one of the RealClimate team (Rahmstorf 2007 as discussed on http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/). He got his acceleration via adjustment to *actual* sea levels to account for land based water reservoirs while ignoring ground water pumping to the surface. This swam right through peer review. Such adjustments are highly speculative at best and simply fantasy at worst for they do not reflect *actual* sea level changes!

CRS, Dr.P.H.
June 19, 2011 7:06 pm

I gave it a good try with the Univ of Illinois search system & didn’t find squat, Anthony, so it ain’t out there yet. Rather bad form to post a publication to your resume before it is published, I’d say.
Happy Father’s Day, by the way!

Scott
June 19, 2011 7:11 pm

Maybe he needs the money.

Maurice J
June 19, 2011 7:14 pm

Greetings from down under in New Zealand.
The pic the top is from a game of UNDERWATER HOCKEY, you need to be able to HOLD YOUR BREATH for long periods…but I will not be holding my breath for any MAN MADE MIRACLE from MANN.
We have over 90% of the worlds ice stored down below us…..its called ANTARCTICA…..and it is a VERY COLD PLACE….even on a warm day….take it from me that ice is NOT GOING ANYWHERE…..In fact the volume of ice in ANTARCTICA has & is INCREASING.
When all the WATERMELON WARMERS admit their LIE
We will raise a MONUMENT into the SKY
A monument of SOLID CARBON
To commemorate their BOGUS BARGAIN.

tom t
June 19, 2011 7:28 pm

Anything is Possible.
Yes sell it right away at any price you can get it will be worthless the day after tomorrow ( that would be a great title for a movie).
I’ll offer you $15. That is more than it will be worth.

Darren Parker
June 19, 2011 7:28 pm

Embargoes can’t be legally enforced

Lance
June 19, 2011 7:44 pm

I broke my hockey stick this winter playing puck. I think I’ll send it to Mann, but I can’t find the blade anymore….but i’m sure he can carbon date it still….

Dr A Burns
June 19, 2011 8:15 pm

Sounds like Mann might be up to the old “trick” … splice together data from different sources (tide gauges and satellites) to get a sudden and “alarming” change.

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