Yes that’s it, the locals are just too stupid to notice global warming because they are conflating it to local temperatures. Let’s remind everyone bloviating about AGW the next time we have a heat wave and record setting local temperatures are recorded, that these local temperatures don’t matter.
Study finds local temperature influences belief in global warming
Columbia Business School’s Center for Decision Sciences’ study depicts how beliefs on global warming are mistakenly influenced by daily temperature
NEW YORK – May 27, 2011 – A study by Columbia Business School Professor Eric Johnson, co-director of the Center for Decision Sciences (http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/decisionsciences) at Columbia Business School, Ye Li, a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for Decision Sciences, and Lisa Zaval, a Columbia graduate student in psychology, found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. The study, recently featured in Psychological Science, explains why public belief in global warming can fluctuate, since people can base their thinking off of the day’s temperature. The researchers behind this study are also affiliated with Columbia University’s Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, CRED (http://www.cred.columbia.edu/).
The team surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia in three different studies in order to determine their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual were more concerned about global warming than respondents who thought that day was colder than usual.
“Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler,” said lead author Ye Li. “It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
The study also revealed that respondents were fairly good at knowing if it was unusually hot or cold–perceptions correlated with reality three quarters of the time. While politics, gender and age all had the predicted influences – for instance, on the researchers’ 1-to-4 scale of belief in global warming, Democrats were 1.5 points higher than Republicans – after controlling for the other factors, the researchers found that perceived temperatures still had nearly two-thirds the power as political belief, and six times the power as gender.
These results join a growing body of work that shows how irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments and opinions on climate change.
Is there a link to this study, or has only a press release surfaced?
But…I thought the thermometers were supposed to be so accurate that they were capable of overcoming the two-feet away, silver-bottomed boat reflecting the Sun’s rays into the thermometer housing? And certainly accurate enough to fill in missing grids on the GISS global coverage map. So which is it? They are either accurate, or they are not. Can’t have it both ways.
Apparently, and I did not know this, thermometers come with an internal mechanism that shuts off when it is colder, thus giving a false reading, and turns back on when it is warmer, thus giving an accurate reading. And now I know. I am enlightened.
The places where the world is warming alarmingly always seem to be far away from where most of us live, like the Arctic, or where there are few thermometers (Arctic, also, I believe). I frequently refer to the story of Prester John, a supposed Christian prince in a country surrounded by “Muslim lands”. Prester John first appears in history around the time of the Crusades, when letters were sent to seek his assistance. Belief in Prester John persisted for something like . The similarity between the Prester John story and that of “global warming” is that both are set in a place far away and difficult for us ordinary people to check.
IanM
“the researchers found that perceived temperatures still had nearly two-thirds the power as political belief, and six times the power as gender”
===============
Of course we all knew that sex and politics are all that matters.
So the take away from this is to send out the teeming believers, in skimpy red, white and blue swimwear on warm days.
Its May 28th, here in the balmy east of England – and I’ve had to turn the central heating on…
For a different article that is somewhat related to this one, see:
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/blogs/in-the-persuasion-game-beware-the-backfire-effect#comments-90938
“Chris Turner
In the persuasion game, beware the backfire effect
For a generation, activists have built their protest movement on the scientific facts of climate change. But the facts of another kind of science — neuroscience — indicate that this only reinforces the point of view of the unconvinced.”
“You don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
-Bob
Obviously people trust their experience. In the US there has been no warming recently. And the CAGW crowd tries to simulate, model, interpolate, and create warming in areas where not many people live (arctic) , so people can’t challenge the model with direct observation.
In light of the rotten spring planting season that farmers in the eastern half of the US are going through, the Alarmists lose another battle. The cooling mechanisms brought on by the recent strong La Nina and amplified sub-Polar Vortex, have caused flooding and severe weather from the Plains through the SE US, and a prolonged drought in the Southern High Plains. Where I live (Western Great Lakes), the farmers were 4 weeks late getting thier corn crop planted. And this week, they saw up to 18% of their farmlands flooded out. In the Northern High Plains only 20% of the Spring Wheat has been planted. And in the Southern High Plains, most of the Winter Wheat is a bust. Look for even higher grain prices in the near future.
You are too stupid to understand
the complexity of Global Warming;
so trust us Progressives to protect
you idiots.
“Global warming is so complex,……..said lead author Ye Li. “It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
Fancy that! The common man still elevates empiricism over climate models.
Seems they will need more training to be more responsive to the command of robots.
Well duh, we can either believe our lying eyes, memories and life experience or take the word of a group of self appointed persons who closely resemble the mythical Chicken Little. I live close to the Arctic and its cold right now end of May and we are still burning wood. Where is my global warming? My government promised it. We were told if we released CO2 into the atmosphere at our old 1990s levels, then the world would warm, especially in the Arctic. We Canadians did our bit, CO2 emmissions went up steadily but no warming. 2011 and its getting noticably cooler arround here.
So can we launch a class action demanding the warming be provided or a refund on the fuels we burnt, on govt advice, to bring on the financial advantages Canada would have gained in a warming world? Yes this is sarc, but seriously these fools have preached relentlessly and imposed real costs upon us.And we do pay attention to their lies, notice how well the Canadian Liberal Party is doing these days.Ditto the Greens.
Since my thermometer (in the country) runs nighttime lows consistently from 6 to 12 (yes 12) degrees F lower than the city of 100,000 24 miles south (and 220 feet lower) than me, YES, yes I do doubt global warming. I have a friend 20 miles west of town and 100 feet higher who consistently runs 4 to 10 degrees lower.
By the way, the city was about 10,000 souls 130 years ago when records began.
Why do we have trial by jury for life and death cases? Why don’t we simply have the judge decide?
Isn’t that what the scientists are saying. That the “best educated” person in the room should make the decisions about what is right and wrong. That the “group of average people” cannot be trusted with this, they need to be “educated”.
The reason we have jury trial is that it is much easier to fool 1 educated person than it is to fool 12 average people. You might fool 9 or 10 of them, but odds are that you won’t fool all of them. You can’t fool all the people all the time to quote Lincoln. Thus, to get a jury conviction, everyone in the jury must agree.
This is the role of the skeptic, the denier in AGW propaganda speak. The person in the crowd that wasn’t fooled by the “evidence”, that recognizes that something doesn’t add up. Maybe there was something about the body language of the witness, or maybe something they learned from personal experience, something that doesn’t make sense.
You can’t “educate” a jury to find your defendant “not guilty”. You can try, but that assumes the jury makes a decision solely based on cold facts. If that was the case, there would be no need for juries. Judges could simply decide every case based solely on the evidence.
The role of the public is see beyond the facts being presented and look at the behavior of the people pesenting the facts. Sure the science may add up, but then why did the scientists seek to undermine the peer review process? Sure the scientists may all agree, but then why has there been such a witch hunt by the scientific community against those who are skeptical? One only need look at the treatment of Judith Curry, once the darling of mainstream climate science, for daring to ask questions. Sure the evidence may be conclusive, but then why have the climate scientists been so reluctant to publish their data? Why have they fought so hard to prevent independent confirmation of their findings?
These are the sorts of questions that people ask themselves when making decisions. They don’t ask if the numbers add up for the radiative transfer, or if there truly is missing heat. They ask themselves why is the person behaving in such a fashion. What does the behavior of the person tell us about the information being presented.
So, when Al Gore tell us that the oceans are going to flood and then buys a house near the beach, most of us conclude that Al doesn’t really believe the oceans are going to flood. What he believes is that telling people the oceans are going to flood will cause some people to panic. This will drive down real estate values near the beach so that Al can likely pick up a choice piece of property at a great price.
Surprisingly, many politicians and environmentalists that tells us the oceans are going to flood us out have waterfront property. You would have thought that if it was such a risk they would have sold and moved to higher ground.
Many more politicians and environmetalists tell us we need to reduce our carbon footprint, while they lead a jet-set lifestyle consuming well in excess of the average person. Should they not as leader actually lead? Surely if they want us to take the bus, they should set the example. Surely if they want us to cut down our air travel, they should stop travelling and teleconference.
When the politicians and envirnmentalists tells us we must change, while they don’t, this sends a message loud and clear to the average person. The message is much louder than the propaganda running on TV and in the newspapers. There is a reason most politicians are lawyers and the words lawyer and liar sound the same. Politicians are professional liars. They get paid to tell lies and the best of them are very good at it.
“Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler,”
It isn’t that complex at all. In fact it is summed up nicely in the above sentience, global warming or climate change is about whether the entire world is getting warm or cooler, and the answer is that since 1998 it hasn’t done much of either. There, what was so hard about that? Even people from Colombia Business School (my father’s Alma Mater) should be able to figure that out.
So people believe their eyes- and ears, and shivers. Thank God!
So when they say “We have a consensus” does that mean its just a hot day? That would explain a lot.
See, we were told that observations weren’t actually useful …
The problem with thinking about whether the earth is getting warmer or colder is that we don’t know if it is warm or cold to begin with we only have anomalies from a base year to guide us. With our local temperatures we have our experience to guide us on how warm say 30c or 80f is but we have no experience of global warming. I don’t believe the Earth is very warm historically at the present time,we have ice at both poles all year round ,every winter the northern hemisphere is covered in snow(every year for as long as we have records-not just the last few winters).I think that the videos by Bob Carter -climate change is co2 the cause give us a “prospective” of how the earths temperature is compared to geological periods.
If ownership or possession of thermometers is dangerous, we should consider enacting Amendment II.2 of our Constitution to prevent infringements upon the right of the people to keep and bear thermometers.
Fred Berple: Judges are too frequently not the smartest people in the room. In fact they can be some of the least smart. Frequently, persons who become judges lack broad professional experience, .i.e get elected or appointed to a trial court after few years work as a public defender or deputy prosecutor. Their professional experience is narrow and specialized while trial court judges hear every type of case from petty crimes to complex civil cases involving anti-trust violations or business transactions.
Judges in many states and locales are paid poorly compared to what lawyers earn in the private practice. However, a regular pay check without any overhead makes the judiciary attractive for lawyers who less able, that is those with little experience or who earn make substantially more than a judges’ salary. Then too, there is the advantage judges, once appointed or elected, have over potential challengers, encumbants are difficult to get rid of.
Federal judges are appointed for life. Too many get appointed as a reward for political favors and support of a political party and its elected officials rather than based upon their talent, experience and accomplishments. Some of them a first class hacks and terrible judges. The only way to get rid of them is impeachment.
The best and brightest of lawyers can earn far more in the private sector than as judges. The pickings for those seeking judgeships is often slim.
Maybe people are swayed by the fact they decided to take into account a hundred thirty years’ advancement including the invention of the electrical, electronic, space age, with satellites, sophisticated aircraft and devices not one of the people who believed in A.G.W. in the NINETEENTH CENTURY when it was GUESSED the atmosphere worked as a
“big, warm, blankie”
would have been able to dream possible.
Maybe, the people of the world looked every day online at the raw data posted there by law and saw the temperatures seem to plateau around the mid nineteen nineties,
then everyone saw Phil Jones confess in 2005 that the scientific community would come down on him in no uncertain terms, if – and I quote –
“I said ***THE WORLD HAD COOLED SINCE 1998.***
***OK IT HAS, but it’s only seven years of data (every year SINCE ’98 to ’05) and it ISN’T STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.”
Maybe THE ENTIRE WORLD REMEMBERS IN 2005, SAYING BETWEEN OURSELVES, “Hmm the DATA I’M READING RAW ONLINE SHOWS NO WARMING SINCE ’98, and in FACT, some STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT COOLING.”
Maybe we all remember THAT part about our THERMOMETERS.
Maybe we all remember that MICHAEL MANN and JONES and BRIFFA THOUGHT THEY HAD INVENTED A WHOLE NEW FIELD OF MATHEMATICS, with which they FURIOUSLY CALCULATED DOOMSDAY, and TOLD US we have to stop USING FIRE because of the potential for DEVASTATING OUTBREAK of SLIGHTLY BALMY WEATHER.
And then of course we remember the HEAD of the ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY telling THEM that not only was “CLIMATE STATISTICS” not EVEN STATISTICS,
but that in fact
NO ‘Climate Math’ IS EVEN MATHEMATICS of ANY kind.
And maybe we still can’t forget like I already said, THEY WERE FURIOUSLY CALCULATING DOOMSDAY WITH IT and ADVISING we SHUT DOWN CIVILIZATION. That it was uh, what was that phrase?
T.H.E. E.N.D. of A.L.L. MANKIND from APOCALYPTIC HELLFIRE in the SKY.
Yeah that’s it.
Maybe we remember that.
Or, maybe we remember the now INFAMOUS “The answer is blowing in the wind” paper where one of them CLAIMED to have OVERTHROWN ALL LAW of INSTRUMENTATION and WRITTEN a PROGRAM on his LAPTOP wherein
SPACE AGE INSTRUMENTS were MADE OBSOLETE and he CALCULATED the TEMPERATURE more ACCURATELY, using – uh, WHAT?
using WIND SPEED.
Maybe it’s that we remember THAT about how our thermometer seems to still be on sale at the store but we don’t hear about anyone using that H I C K’s fake program.
Maybe it’s the fact that we COMPARED their grasp of photonic physics, and found they BELIEVED that the PHOTONS VIGOROUSLY JERKING GAS ATOMS outward toward the SKY, had suddenly, begun JERKING THOSE ATOMS DOWNWARD: until of course they RELEASED and THEMSELVES RADIATED DOWNWARD,
instead of upward,
like they have since the beginning of time.
Maybe we realized these people were trying to tell us, that HOT AIR NOW FALLS.
Or the PHOTONS PREVIOUSLY TOWING them UP
were now towing them DOWN.
Maybe it was that REVERSAL of POLARITY of GRAVITY thing.
oR, maybe it was that whole “There’s MAGIC GASES that’s a gonna make the SKY ketch on far! You kin SEE IT in tha GRAFFs I wuz a REED’n!”
from Trenberth, the HILLBILLY who showed us C.E.R.E.S. graphs that’d put a submarine sonar technician to sleep and proclaimed it was – what was that?
Oh yea, “APOCALYPTIC HELLFAR in tha SKY, YA’LL! It’s thuh EEyund, ah’ TAYuLL ya, tha EEYUND!”
And, then maybe we checked those graphs and concluded he’s either a liar, or high.
And then maybe we checked those EMAILS where he ADMITTED,
he is just lying.
Maybe we invented those instruments these lying government employee/politicians are LYING about the readings of, and we just can’t prosecute them for murder or at least the negligent homicides associated with their false weather mitigation forecasts.
Maybe we just don’t have the ability to hold them accountable for their massive coordinated crime spree(S) so we just remember that we know they are going to get theirs, and since civilizations have to endure the frauds of power crazy religious zealots, we don’t take up pitchforks and torches and put an end to their F.R.A.U.D.s and HOMICIDAL POWER GRABs.
Yes I said HOMICIDE. That’s a HOMICIDE when someone KNOWINGLY EXPOSES ANOTHER to DEADLY CONDITIONS when they are paid MONEY to SPECIFICALLY PROTECT the person(s) exposed, and CERTIFIED to have the CAPABILITY of telling whether they are delivering realistic evaluation of likelihoods.
That’s a DEATH occurring in CONNECTION to a FRAUD devised for MONETARY GAIN.
So that’s a HOMICIDE.
So MAYBE we just all have lost ALL RESPECT for the HOMICIDAL MANIA that leads these people to LIE
claiming HEAT: that NO INSTRUMENT on EARTH has EVER DETECTED
is threatening apocalyptic hellfire from the sky if we don’t all become demonic rat tree hunchers.
Maybe we looked into our optical telescopes for the EVIDENCE of HEAT in the ATMOSPHERE, MAGNIFIED THOUSANDS of TIMES, in the form of MOTION on GAS: the definition of HEAT on gas –
and maybe we find .NOTHING.
Because there IS no G.H.G.E. of ANY kind.
IF there WAS, maybe our INFRA RED TELESCOPY FIELD PEOPLE would have been SCREAMING BLOODY MURDER (pun NOT intended) about the EVER RISING
INFRA-RED
POLLUTION
affecting their
INFRA-RED VIEWING
equipment.
But there IS none so maybe we just understand, these ECO-NUTTER POWER FASCISTS have all become MASSIVELY DELUDED into believing a NINETEENTH CENTURY FALSEHOOD that a
miles deep
heat conductive
convective cell spawning
compressed fluid
FRIGID
IMMERSION BATH
held in place by gravity
was warming the rock submerged in it, like a “big warming blankie,”
to the point where it might “burn us all in hellfire for our sins against Gaia.”
Maybe we just all realize these frauds are part and parcel of a civilization whose very thoughts aren’t whether they are KILLING PEOPLE but whether they have “had a good feeling about what I’ve done” when they LIE
contriving FALSE INSTRUMENT READINGS
that lead to FALSE EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS
that lead to HUMAN BEINGS BEING KILLED DUE to it.
Maybe we just don’t have the respect for that kind of person we’d have for a mad dog frothing on the side of the road.
At least the mad dog has an excuse, that he didn’t know how he got that way.
For whatever grammatical incorrectness is found above I apologize; but we all know:
nothing anyone says EVER thwarts a sociopath who lies simply to get your things.
Frankly I don’t care about temperatures anywhere but where I live, work and play. And I have noticed it was a cold spring here in Maryland. And my wife’s berry bushes and strawberry plants have also. So the researchers are at least partly right – I believe in global cooling (my part of the globe anyway) based on my own personal observations. However, my opinion that AGW is a hoax is not based on what I observe in my immediate surroundings. It is based on reasoned research and skepticism.
That is a very interesting subject (in the linguistic sense) to use: “society” has spent so much…. ‘Society’? I don’t think so. Society is actually those he is accusing of being “so easily influenced” by real observations of the real world around them. His own ’cause’ has been expending the “money, time and effort” in an attempt to educate (indoctrinate?) this “society” with the use of the output of models forecasting doom and disaster.
And failing, it would seem.
“These results join a growing body of work that shows how irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments and opinions on climate change.”
I wonder what Bill Nye has to say about this.
Could it be that the authors of the study have mixed up cause and effect. If you believe in Global Warming, you might be more likely to believe that an average day is in fact unusually hot.