Quick, ban local citizen owned thermometers

Yes that’s it, the locals are just too stupid to notice global warming because they are conflating it to local temperatures. Let’s remind everyone bloviating about AGW the next time we have a heat wave and record setting local temperatures are recorded, that these local temperatures don’t matter.

Study finds local temperature influences belief in global warming

Columbia Business School’s Center for Decision Sciences’ study depicts how beliefs on global warming are mistakenly influenced by daily temperature

NEW YORK – May 27, 2011 – A study by Columbia Business School Professor Eric Johnson, co-director of the Center for Decision Sciences (http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/decisionsciences) at Columbia Business School, Ye Li, a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for Decision Sciences, and Lisa Zaval, a Columbia graduate student in psychology, found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. The study, recently featured in Psychological Science, explains why public belief in global warming can fluctuate, since people can base their thinking off of the day’s temperature. The researchers behind this study are also affiliated with Columbia University’s Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, CRED (http://www.cred.columbia.edu/).

The team surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia in three different studies in order to determine their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual were more concerned about global warming than respondents who thought that day was colder than usual.

“Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler,” said lead author Ye Li. “It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”

The study also revealed that respondents were fairly good at knowing if it was unusually hot or cold–perceptions correlated with reality three quarters of the time. While politics, gender and age all had the predicted influences – for instance, on the researchers’ 1-to-4 scale of belief in global warming, Democrats were 1.5 points higher than Republicans – after controlling for the other factors, the researchers found that perceived temperatures still had nearly two-thirds the power as political belief, and six times the power as gender.

These results join a growing body of work that shows how irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments and opinions on climate change.

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Green Sand

No, honest guv, I don’t have a thermometer, I modelled, honest guv, I did, I modelled it.

Jack Maloney

“The study, recently featured in Psychological Science, explains why public belief in global warming can fluctuate, since people can base their thinking off of the day’s temperature.”
Psychological Science must be pretty hard up for material to publish. It’s troubling to think that someone in academia thought this was worth $tudying.

charles nelson

I wonder if any of the studies incorporated ‘perceptional offsets’ (I just made that up…good isn’t it?) due to the use of central heating or air-conditioning.
Hmnn that was quite a cool summer…yes but were you using the aircon?
Warmists never cease to amaze me as they twist and turn in their attempts to convince us that they are right about Global Warming…and surely they dug this hole for themselves during the mild winters of the nineties which were incessantly blamed on Global Warming…!
They’re really on the back foot here in Australia right now. Dr Flim Flannery was on the telly last night squirming as he tried to sell his Carbon Tax during what has been one of the coldest weeks in Australia for many years…the only heat around was the radiation from his blushes!

Robert M

I imagine their results would similar if they were studying belief in the Tooth Fairy or the Loch Ness Monster and be inversely related on whether or not they believed Bill Clinton had sex with that woman.

Grant Hillemeyer

Uh, duh…….

Oh, so now it’s down to “Weather” you are a female democrat, now, is it? Brother! Oh…Sister! The whole democraphic is skewed. Maybe if you show pictures of cute ursis maritimus cubs, it will temper the response? Is this “preliminary work” to eventually lead to making all data irrelevant, as well…just to confuse the non-issue further? The conditioning experiment is progressing nicely.

Theo Goodwin

News Flash: Scientists Have Discovered That Individual’s Sex Lives Determine Their Perception of Global Orgasm!

This has got to be why I made this post yesterday: http://pindanpost.com/2011/05/27/wheres-the-warming/
And this morning it is another degree colder still…just 7C below May’s average

jorgekafkazar

Pay no attention to that blizzard outside; the Earth is hot, blazing hot. Trust us. Don’t be influenced by what you see and feel. Believe in the models! Believe in Gaia and in Her Profit, Al Gore. Look, see this map with the red area all across the Arctic where there aren’t any thermometers or people to tell us any different? That, that is what you should believe.
/sarc²

Paul Irwin

“It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people… yet people are still so easily influenced.”
What makes the “workers” try to think for themselves? We need some more $$ to study that, too.

SteveSadlov

I base my understanding of secular trends in climate change on how the ecosystem is responding to stimuli. I live in a very good place for detecting succession, it’s near the Mediterranean / Marine West Coast transition. During the warm 80s and 90s, I was seeing the NW species stressed and meanwhile, things like Yuccas started to show up (I have a few on my land). Ever since the late 90s the trend has reversed. I am seeing more Douglas Fir seedlings, the Coast Live Oaks are going haywire (both from the standpoint of mature tree growth and new seedlings) and the Redwoods look very healthy. I’ve also noticed Steller Jays pushing out Scrub Jays. Raccoons and Deer are increasing.

SteveSadlov

charles nelson says:
May 27, 2011 at 4:16 pm
I think the obesity epidemic, and epidemics of auto immune diseases are also playing a role. I see more and more people who will break a sweat walking at a moderate pace outside when it’s 68 deg F and 40% RH. These are clear cases of abnormality. People’s personal “climate control” systems are not working well in an increasing number of cases.

cirby

Of course, this also sorta backfires on the AGW crowd.
If most of their believers live in cities, they’ll tend to believe in AGW due to the Urban Heat Island psychological effect… whether the globe is warming or not.

Bob Diaz

Isn’t it funny that the increasing Polar Bear Populations and the increasing arctic ice are both ignoring the models?

Pat Frank

Let’s recall that Jim Hansen’s allies in Congress left the council chamber’s windows open before his testimony, during the hot DC summer of 1988, so that the air conditioning would be over taxed and the senators would sweat their way into believing his 99% blarney.
It appears that influencing people with local temperature is OK so long as the perception goes in the right direction.
I wonder how lead author Ye Li is going to feel when the realization finally sinks in that AGW has been a studied misdirection from the word go, and he discovers that he, too, was, “so easily influenced.”

Really?
I though the Alarmists & Media were the ones suffering from that problem…..

John M

Next, they should do a study on whether air conditioning impacts congressional hearings on global warming.

Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own model shows warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is actually becoming warmer or cooler.

GogogoStopSTOP

“Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler,” said lead author Ye Li.
This is why “C” students manage “A” students (read PhD’s.) And “B” students teach, ughhh, hmmmm… do silly research, draw kindergartenish conclusions, worry, fret…
Global Warming complex? What’s complex about a minuscule gas, necessary for life on earth, causing the globe to warm 100 years from now & causing a great flood… destroying mankind??? Easy to understand!

Latitude

Immediately followed by the study showing how computer scientists believe their statistics, trends, and computer models….over real life

Doesn’t have to be local temps – the Moscow heatwave scored good points last year. Around the same time there was much less media coverage to the cold waves sweeping north along the eastern flank of the Andes.

u.k.(us)

“Global warming is so complex,……..said lead author Ye Li. “It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
========
Ummm, the money spent by what you call “society”, came out of my pocket.
My education (into which I still put some “time and effort”) continues, and contrary to your conjecture is not “easily influenced”, maybe it’s time to try another tack.

Robert of Ottawa

My home is heated by gas, and my gas bill shows a month-by-month comparison of previous and current consumption – March & April this year were significantly higher than last year’s. That isn’t a “perceptual” thing, it is a hard fact. If there is warming, it certainly isn’t global.

Research published by Penn and Teller confirmed that liberals are 3.75 times more likely to ban substances without understanding the nature and benefit of the substance. Recently, liberals have suffered extreme confusion with contradictory studies by liberal icons. Ralph Nadar has exposed a carcinogenic element in cleansers while Jane Fonda endorses the same carcinogen in L’Oreal cosmetics. The liberal decision on whether or not to ban silica has become a battle celebrity.

Anthony Scalzi

Coincidentally, my friend just sent me a link to a study titled
Visceral Fit: While in a Visceral State, Associated States of the World
Seem More Likely
http://pbjlab.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Risen-Critcher-2011.pdf
which happens to be on the subject.

Greg Cavanagh

They are trying to convince us that the trueth is all about perception.
“Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual were more concerned about global warming than respondents who thought that day was colder than usual.”
For a postdoctorate researcher, this is a seriously worrying research result. I fear his other works and conclusions.
“The study also revealed that respondents were fairly good at knowing if it was unusually hot or cold”.
What does it mean to be “unusually” hot or cold? My God man, can you hear yourself.

Kev-in-Uk

I would have thought this was common sense – and moreover, similar to most of the general psychology take on these things? meaning that if you’re told it’s warm or cold – you feel appropriately warm or cold, etc, etc – I guess a bit like the normal placebo effect? The interesting thing is that there are many other factors which would affect weather ‘memory’ – you always remember the steaming hot days and miserable cold days but all the ‘average’ days inbetween are more likely forgotten? A stage further and you more likely tend to remember the summer more often than the winter because you are usually outside more – so logically it is easy to ‘think’ of warmer temps and associate them with so called climate change – making it easier for the average guy to ‘believe’ the BS!

Latitude

“It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
=====================================================
Well lead author Ye Li here is a simple little test for you…..
Using the exact same data, statistics, computer models, peer review process, etc….
…How simple would it be to convince those same people that instead of global warming there is global cooling?

Doug Proctor

Global problems should look global. If the contiguous US states haven’t warmed in 15 years, maybe the global changes are just …. local changes.
Imagine that. Having citizens decide for themselves.

Ed Barbar

I wonder if it has anything to do with the constant bombarding of unusual weather as being caused by “global warming.” If the warmistas bombard people with weather images as examples of global warming, maybe people will start to believe it.

Dave

Whilst obviously the study’s authors are drawing spurious conclusions, I don’t find their findings at all surprising. They have shown that a clear correlation exists between global – for which, read ‘western’ – temps and interest/belief in global warming. We’ve all seen the graphs, and they’re not wrong on that one. Belief in ‘global warming’ lagged but closely followed the peak temperatures.

Let’s remind everyone bloviating about AGW the next time we have a heat wave and record setting local temperatures are recorded, that these local temperatures don’t matter.

Or that the concept of a global temperature is meaningless in the first place.

“It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
Apparently the author hasn’t heard of religion.

gofer

They will believe whatever the “scientists” and media tell them. The data nor facts are never checked, so it’s a belief system. With all the conditions remaining the same, it would have been just as easy to push global cooling. Warming is scarier….burning and all. They refuse to acknowledge or believe their own data and keep making the same statements. It’s like no new knowledge or data or facts have emerged in 30 years. They WANT global warming and no facts or data is going to talk them out of it…they must have their doomsday or they will be very sad.

This seems like an appropriate time to ask this question.
My father, an aerospace engineer, religiously kept min-max temperature records a single location (our home) in rural SW Denver, CO from 1960 to the mid ‘90s until he became wheel chair bound and couldn’t read the thermometer.
True to form, he recorded these observations on yearly pages of 1×1 mm K&E (orange on white) graph paper. Each taped over the previous years’ records for quick reference.
When I say rural, I mean for most of the time there was a wheat field behind our back yard (sadly not now). At the very least they might serve as a data point for UHI effect as the suburbs grew to and past us.
Would these records be of use to anyone(1)? If so, who? TIA.
(1) I mean anyone, but myself. They mean something to me and I never throw away anything irreplaceable.

u.k.(us)

I personally would be more interested in a study by:
“Columbia Business School’s Center for Decision Sciences”
Into this statement:
These results join a growing body of work that shows how irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments and opinions on climate change.
=======
Which could also be written (fill in the blanks).
These results join a growing body of work that shows how irrelevant _________ information, such as the __________, can affect judgments and opinions of ___________.
Which would explain the performance of my stock portfolio.

Steve in SC

Well, one disadvantage to hot weather is it cuts down on the number of firearms one can carry on one’s person.

Phil's Dad

Can’t be true. If it was Warmist Summits held in warm countries would be more successful than those held in cold… hang on a minute.

Quentin Colgan The Uncomfortable Truth

Who needs a thermometer?
One only needs to look at the fauna living in new territories to know that temperature is going up.

Most psychological studies are backwards.
More likely explanation: If you believe the world is getting warmer, your own perception will consciously notice warmer-than-usual days and won’t notice colder-than-usual days. If you believe the world is getting colder, vice versa.
The study might have been worthwhile if they had worked with people from a primitive country who had never heard of the whole dispute, thus had no preset bias … but I’m not sure if there are any such countries now. Almost everyone has some kind of access to media and cell phones!

wayne

There’s nothing like reality to show how not-warm this spring is!
Ask the farmers.
Anyone else in the world abnormally cool today? Anyone burning up?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MEMORIAL_DAY_SNOW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-27-04-51-12

DENVER (AP) — Ski resorts are bustling with activity. A key highway into Yellowstone is closed because parts of the road have seen more than 25 feet of snow. And campgrounds are feverishly removing snow from campsites to clear the way for visitors.
Welcome to Memorial Day weekend in much of the West.

Sharon Prince

Steve,
Didn’t say where you were located. Contact your local NWS office and I believe they would look to see what info matches up with the co-op sites near you and also the Cocorahs numbers. Also some colleges/universities are doing climate studies. Don’t be surprise if your data is off by a few degrees. The mountains in TN used to give me some much lower numbers than some sites in small cities or near water.

Amino Acids in Meteorites

Ok, I’ve heard of taking away guns. I’ve heard of taking away free press. But take away thermometers? How ugly is this going to get?
Do we need a Constitutional Amendment protecting the freedom of following weather? SHEESH!
Eliminate the Medieval Warm Period. Eliminate thermometers. Instead let’s eliminate funding for global warming study.

Person of Choler

“Study finds local temperature influences belief in global warming”
And this just in, “Study finds experience with rain influences belief in wetness of water”

rbateman

“It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced.”
Society has wasted a lot of money, time and effort in a vain attempt at thwarting basic human instinct. It does no good to go on endlessly about global climate, when the heart of the matter is what is happening in one’s own region.
Even worse, grumbling about the weather that does not suit one’s fancy is a human right, earned over 10’s of thousands of years of putting up with what has been dished out. One might get away with cashing in on the current state of affairs, but sooner or later the tide turns, and then one will face an angry populace bent on getting even.
It’s bad enough putting up with inclement weather: it’s an entirely different matter putting up with dunderheads who’ve tarried too long with theoretical climate models.

TA

Any mention of 1988 when the U.S. was undergoing one of it’s worst droughts in a generation and this AGW nonsense gained national attention?
One of those inconvenient truths that the media likes to forget.

Rhoda Ramirez

Wayne, yes, here in the Florida Panhandle the temps are running about 5C over average – but this is very typical of a la nina year. Another reason why perceptions are so important is that the (alleged) global warming appears to be occuring up in the Artic and up in the Andes and other remote, lightly populated areas.

Jessie

cirby says:
May 27, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Of course, this also sorta backfires on the AGW crowd.
If most of their believers live in cities, they’ll tend to believe in AGW due to the Urban Heat Island psychological effect… whether the globe is warming or not.

Herd mentality works like that. All deaths reported as suicide became aligned to the mental health movement and established a sound basis and support of funding and research.
The psychs supported the engineering of a net on Golden Gate Bridge and furthered this on a world-wide basis to cities with bridges.
http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2008/10/10/golden-gate-bridge-to-get-a-suicide-net/
That’s until someone(s) observed differently.
Perhaps the work done by Rod Cross, retired physicist and the New South Wales Police into the death of Caroline Byrne? Her family did not believe she committed suicide. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Caroline_Byrne
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/jury-finds-arthur-freeman-guilty-of-murdering-daughter-by-throwing-her-off-bridge/story-e6frg6nf-1226029669369
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/new-investigative-unit-will-reopen-cases-after-coroner-fears-hidden-domestic-violence-death-toll/story-e6freoof-1226060294225
It is not clear whether the human condition of malice, used in criminal law, is coded in the DSM-IV.
http://psychcentral.com/disorders/dsmcodes.htm

stan stendera

Global Warming RIP.

davidmhoffer

This is known psychology and the only thing different from dozens of other nearly identical studies is the specific topic. Well, that and the fact that the dozens of other studies set out to understand how current perception influences perception of long term memory while this piece of c**p sets out to present the exact same KNOWN psychology as if it was unique to global warming and is somehow new research.