From the “weather is not climate” department, I’m getting reports this morning of snow down to 2500 feet in Forest Ranch, CA a few miles from where I live. This is not surprising, give the cold storm coming through at the moment. The lateness of the storm and the low snow levels may surprise some people.
It is quite cold in the Sierra right now, with higher elevations having temps in the high teens and twenties, even at 11AM. Here is a screencap of this MESONET interactive map:
I recall in 1993, after Pinatubo, how we had snow in the Sierra in the first week of June.
Dr. John Christy wrote yesterday of the southern Sierra Nevada forecast discussion which he thought was unusual:
Anthony:
I was born and raised in Fresno County in 1950s- early 1970s where I developed my climate passion (well before global warming issues). You don’t see winter storm warnings for the Southern Sierras in mid-May too often. It’s not like they haven’t had enough snow this season.
John C.
000 FXUS66 KHNX 142145 AFDHNXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 245 PM PDT SAT MAY 14 2011 .... CURRENT TIMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MAY BE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO 5 AM PDT ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS TIMING...PUSHED THE ONSET OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING CLOSER TO 5 AM PDT WHEN THE COLD POOL BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS PROG SNOW LEVEL NEAR 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...BEST DYNAMICS ALONG WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON TO A WARNING AND START IT AFTER 5 AM PDT ON SUNDAY. ...
Looks like more is headed our way:
In Reno, Nv at 4500ft, Ive watched and obsessed over winter snowfall amounts and looking at a century’s worth of data I can certainly notice that winter snowfall amounts at this particular elevation and position east of the sierra seem to oscillate up and down dramatically in several-year cycles. The 1930s seemed abnormally snowless, and the early 2000s were also quite mild and snowfall was scant. However, the mid 2000’s through this year have been MUCH snowier, in some years totals have been well above normal. The annual average on the lower part of the Reno Valley Floor is 24 inches per year, but this location which had seen less than 6 inches each of most winters of the early 2000s has gone on to see 50-60 inches in 2004-2005, while snowfall totals for calendar years 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010 were all 25 inches or more. The winter seasons of 2009-2010 and (to date) 2010-2011 each recorded 34 inches. the foothills obviously get much greater amounts than this. People will move to Reno Nevada foothills from Lower Michigan only to learn their new home in the “desert” gets twice as much snow as their old one. Trends dictating Reno elevation snowfall totals don’t usually correlate with snowfalls in the sierras above 5000 feet because even some of the wetter winters which dump on the sierras, may have brought rain below 5000 in town and the opposite, where relatively dry sierra years were still cold so the storms that did come through brought snow to Reno, meaning Reno snow was above normal but sierra totals were well below normal. In conclusion, as is seen in many mid latitude or mid elevation spots in the united states with snowfall averages in the 20’s, winters can vary from almost no snowfall to being absolutely buried most of the year. I posted this because not only are there more factors, oscillations and such than i have toes that go into factoring what winters around the country will be like, Government scientists argue that early symptoms of climate change in the form of modest warming in the Arctic has caused the Polar Vortex to destabilize, and this in theory loosens the “rubber band” of cold air mass at the pole wobbles around more due to this destabilization, and this allows periods of colder weather to dip further south and invade lower latitudes than in the past.
Though it snowed today in Reno, it had reached 80 degrees 6 weeks ago. I should point out that the mediterranean climate-mountainous west, (and probably the European’s version, the alps), have “looser” seasons than eastern continental locations at lower elevations. In the intermountain west cities including Reno it is not uncommon at all to see irregular snowfall distribution, or snowfall occur early or especially late in the season. People forget that and seem to predictably be surprised when the snow flies in May, but spending 15 years here I can tell you that it almost always snows in april regularly, and May, June, or September flurries happen probably once or twice every couple years. This has to frustrate Interior Western Agriculture due to the lack of predictability of the last or first frost but it seems that fall is usually warmer than spring. This erratic seasonal behavior can happen anywhere but living on the East Coast it seems the climate there is more predictable and stable, their seasons are more defined. Even in places that get alot of snow, their snow is usually confined to actual wintertime.
Here’s why the first stage of the ‘Tour of California’ was cancelled:
http://tinyurl.com/6h4zo4t
We are getting big wet feather flakes of snow in Boise this morning… very unusual for mid-May. This is March/April weather!
Sorry about the weather for all you guys, but down here it has been heavenly. 🙂
The weather has been all over the place this winter with record lows and highs. Here in Sacramento we have no apricots. The weather warmed to the point the tree went into bloom and then abruptly cooled again causing the blossoms to drop. Capping this, warm humid weather kicked of a case of fire blight leading to serious pruning requirements to protect the tree. Meanwhile aggravating episodes of freezing nights that were not forecast killed off the kumquat blossoms so no kqs either. The lime tree and the fig appear to be doing fine though. I can remember my seventh grade teachers in Placerville being extremely grumpy after spending all night helping one them save his apple blossoms from frost. Since that was more than forty years ago, nothing much appears to have changed – except perhaps fewer teachers also grow a cash crop.
If someone had gone long on May heating degree days for the Western US, they’d be making a mint right now.
Hi Curt, up here in SF, yesterday you could see Mt. Wittenberg (high point of Pt. Reyes) from my hood in the central San Mateo County hills (again, very Feb like). Absolutely zero smog. Today we have another system coming in, you may get some rain as well, since the low is centered around Big Sur with fronts hanging south.
Unnnnnnnnnnnnprecedennnnnnnnnnnnnted!
http://www.squaw.com/snowfall-tracker-2010-11
I missed it a while back when they cracked 700″.
All time resort record.
In the middle of the country in Ohio the spring planting is three weeks late so far.
Cowabunga!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/radar.php
Another record low Maximum :
05/16/2011 – 52F, previous low Max 53F – 2000 – Weaverville, CA
Snow down to 3500 feet stuck on the trees this morning, melted back to 4500 feet.
Big deal, in Victoria we have had late autum low snow on the Dandenongs, an area that gets snow every 5 years in the depths of winter. Roll on AGW.
This morning at 5:30 AM, I drove, at just under the 5000 ft elevation mark, through 4 inches of slick sloppy snow, and still coming down hard and continuously. I was driving my 2011 red Jeep Grand Cherokee, in 2nd/3rd, 4-wheel drive, snow mode. And still fishtailed like a trout trying to shake a hook. More snow is forcasted. All the snowmelt that is overfilling the streams and rivers in NE Oregon is, just as fast, being replaced by more of the same.
I wonder what, 100 years from now, they might call 2011?
It might be something like the year without a Spring, should this be the depth of it.
Is there more?
2011, the warning wave.
So its cold in North America – but in North-West Europe (UK, Belgium, Holland etc.) temps are above average. Is this a Rossby wave thing?
A low grade version of “the atmospheric river” now seems to be under way. They are now progging a series of systems clear through the end of the month. The rotten levees left by the ex-Philanderator may not be able to take it when the inevitable reckoning comes next month.
Meanwhile there is now serious concern about crop losses nation wide. Got food?
All of the western states have snowpacks that are currently 110 to over 180 percent above normal with the exception of southern Colorado. Pretty unusual for most of the western states to be so far ahead on snowpack all at the same time rather than from one or two states. That
Something for the global warming crowd…and enjoy their conniption fits.
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2011/snow1105.gif
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/ms.pl