Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I guess having electricity when you need it is sooooo last century … UK families will have to get used to “only using power when it was available”. That constant electricity at home was dangerous anyhow, the unending hum of the wires can drive a man so insane that the only way to cure him is to make him head of the National Grid …
UK persons … comments?
w.
[Update, for those who believe the above is a faked article, I had Green Sand send me a photo and another scan of the actual newspaper. ~ ctm]
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There seems to be considerable difference between what Holiday was actually saying and how some politically motivated people want it to be understood.
“A petrol pump with a 5G/min flow rate is equivalent to ~11MW”
About the same as 11 large windmills.
Konrad says:
I can see a solution to this. Slow combustion syngas generators running on dried biomass producing H2 and CO to be fed to small four stroke generators. Cars have been run on wood chips with this system.[…]
Micro generation and bootleg power could be the start of the anti kleptocracy revolution. Syngas can even be converted to liquid fuels through the Fischer–Tropsch process. Bootleg petrol?
Let the revolution begin:
This first one has a neat video of folks making a DIY F-T reactor. They also sell a DIY “open source” gassifier for operating cars and generators and stuff on yard trash:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/diy-gasoline-and-diesel-from-wood-and-trash/
Some more in depth stuff on what’s going on now in the world of coal to liquids:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/zsm-5-and-liquid-beds/
And a small note on the competition:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/oil-and-gasoline-prices/
There is also a fair amount of content in the comments where added stuff is posted, such as a car crossing the Golden Gate Bridge using walnut shells as fuel in a video in the first link, comments.
For those questioning the authenticity of the article, I would point to England’s Number Watch. I have never questioned the truthfulness or accuracy of Dr. John Brignell:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2011%20March.htm
[[[ ferd berple says:
March 5, 2011 at 5:52 pm
…Sounds like it is time for everyone in the UK to install a coal bin. Lots of houses probably still have them from before the war, boarded over. You can probably buy 10 tons of lignite for 100 pounds, more then enough for the winter. Way cheaper than electric heat and the ash makes a fine grit for the walkways when it snows… ]]]
I can see “bootleg coal” becoming available in the future, literally a “black market”.
“Smoke police” out sniffing smokestacks for violators. Severe penalties and fines for burning coal as “injuring the planet”. Anyone inventing a smokeless/clean coal burner for the home should do well. No sarcasm here. I’m already looking for the nearest coal supply for California.
Here you go, the solution that will give you reliable power even as the government shutsdown the grid, and without a drop of imported oil nor a breeze of imported gas. It runs on wood, or cellulosic trash. You know, old phone books, empty fast food wrappers, copies of last years Govt Budget (good for weeks on end)…
http://www.gekgasifier.com/gasification-store/gasifier-genset-skids/
Makes 10 kW to 20 kW of power and at reasonable rates, too.
They also have DIY plans for folks wanting a bit less cost and willing to assemble some yourself:
http://www.gekgasifier.com/wood-gasifier-plans/
So say goodby to all that centrally planned outage, and hello to energy independence, with reliable power as long as you have neighbors tossing out the trash!
ferd berple says:
March 5, 2011 at 6:06 pm (Edit)
“A petrol pump with a 5G/min flow rate is equivalent to ~11MW”
About the same as 11 large windmills.
Not exactly. An average large windmill, based on real UK experience, generates power less than 20% of the time. Therefore, to get the 11 Mwatts power from 11 large windmills, you have to build more than 55 large 1 MegWatt windmills. And all the overhead 200,000 volt power transmission lines between them. And all the high volt/200,000 volt transmission transformers to connect all of those 55 large windmills, each windmill requiring some 1km x 1 km field all by itself to avoid turbulence and lessened efficiency. And then place all those windmills in several different weather systems (ie, different countries) so at least 20% have a chance of getting the right amount of wind at the right time – not too high (they shut off) and not too low (they shut off.)
Then you still have to build an 11 MWatt conventional power plant to serve as a backup for the 55 windmills that are not producing power regardless of the the backups previously bought and paid for.
Poptech says:
March 5, 2011 at 5:56 pm
hro001, “Now, I could be mistaken (although in this instance I doubt that I am) but the opposite of “constant” is “intermittent” – a word which is not inconsistent with “not permanently available”. ”
That is my point, he is not quoted as using either word (constant or intermittent) let alone ‘permanent’. That is IMO a gross distortion of what he said and not helpful to the debate. I did not hear him state that there would be times of the day or year when you would have no electricity available or “intermittent power” like a third world nation rather that the “smart grid” will adjust rates based on total power availability vs total demand.
That statement is – deliberately and completely – completely false. He is specifically and explicitly saying that continuously available electricity CANNOT be assumed to be reliably produced in the UK in the future – BECAUSE of his environmental and emotional beliefs. NOT because of ANY engineering or economical reason.
Simply because of HIS decisions of environmental policies which are based on HIS belief-system of CAGW propaganda.
Poptech says:
March 5, 2011 at 7:43 am
What he says is,
“The grid’s going to be a very different system in 2020 2030. We keep thinking about we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be a much smarter system then, were going to have to change our own behaviour and consume it when it’s available and available cheaply.”
That does not mean you will not have permanently available electricity (no power at all). Nor does it have anything to do with having unlimited power as you don’t even have that now. Any grid can be overloaded. What he could simply mean is the rates will fluctuate automatically based on the grid’s load. So you can use all you want during peak times but it is going to be much more expensive. The expense of course would be increased dramatically if it only came from renewables which is I believe what he is getting at for a 2020, 2030 scenario. This will naturally make people drastically change their behavior to save money. That is a much different interpretation than the government deciding to arbitrarily shut your power off for “green” reasons.
To put the problem in terms you (might be able to) understand. I run a small or medium size business in the UK. My profit is 5%. If I lose 4 percent on every sale I make for 3 months, I must close – because I cannot pay my (first!) my taxes, my workers, my suppliers, and my bills (much less myself and my family. One of my bills is electricity.
Now, WHEN am I going to get electricity next year and how much am I going to pay for it? Be specific please, because I HAVE TO print my catalog for next year’s prices, and if I am wrong I will be shut down.
Oh. While you are at it, when will this power be available? I have to schedule my workers, you see, and it costs more to get people working on a swing shift or night shift – when apparently power won’t be available either! – just to do the same work as they could have done on day shift when the mails and phone contacts and delivery vehicles and banks and all the other usual “services” are actually available. What about all those workers who can’t work variable nights and weekends at randomly scheduled times?
Do you want me to fire them? Or can I charge them to your bank account when they are not working productively for me because their power was suddenly too expensive to make a even a 3 percent profit on their machine on Monday afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Thursday afternoon? Friday morning’s productivity was pretty good though – we actually made a 6 percent profit. For 3 hours. Then I lost all that money on Friday afternoon trying to finish the parts I started to make on Friday morning.
Oh. And all of Tuesday’s production spoiled when the power went out for two hours and the heaters and refrigerators turned off. Had to spend another 6 hours emptying the lines and cleaning the tanks of decaying product so we could restart on Wednesday with a salable product.
racookpe1978 says (March 5, 2011 at 8:13 pm): “Now, WHEN am I going to get electricity next year and how much am I going to pay for it?”
I think the government is telling you that if you need reliable power, you’ll have to provide it yourself while of course complying with all government regulations (though strangely, the gov is admitting it can’t do both; maybe you’ll have more luck).
Either that or they’re telling you to move your business to a place with reliable power, like China or India. 🙂
E.M.Smith says (March 5, 2011 at 7:10 pm): “Here you go, the solution that will give you reliable power even as the government shutsdown the grid, and without a drop of imported oil nor a breeze of imported gas. It runs on wood, or cellulosic trash.”
Thanks for the link. Not sure how practical it is, but the mere existence of such a turnkey system is encouraging. For marketing purposes, though, I’d change the name from “Gasifier Experimenters Kit” to something like “Mr. Gasifier”.
Or not. 🙂
racookpe1978, “That statement is – deliberately and completely – completely false. He is specifically and explicitly saying that continuously available electricity CANNOT be assumed to be reliably produced in the UK in the future – BECAUSE of his environmental and emotional beliefs. NOT because of ANY engineering or economical reason. ”
He did not explicitly say that at all. Quote him where he says future power will be intermittent and unreliable. And I don’t mean what has already been quoted. Give me his own words.
Smart metering is good for the utility operator. It allows recovery of variable costs and eliminates the meter reader. If it is considered to be green the meter cost can be added to the account fee.
The smart metered customers in Canada have found that conservation is minor. How can you sleep with major appliances running at night? Timers can be used on water and space heaters but the house will be cool and the water cold when you need it most, unless you quit your job. Heavy duty timers probably cost more than they save. Households with teenagers or women will save nothing.
USA now has a surplus of electricity due to de-industrialization and unemployment. This is probably the way of the future. Raise energy and labor cost enough and you can move industry to Asia and reduce overall demand. You will have surplus electrical capacity without building any.
Clive says:
March 4, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Search “electricity” here:
http://dailytelegraph.newspaperdirect.com/screenprint/viewer.aspx
Clive
————————————-
Thanks Clive. Searched myself and you are right enough.
Just because one searches and does not find does not mean it’s not there.
Poptech says: March 5, 2011 at 10:52 pm
“He did not explicitly say that at all. Quote him where he says future power will be intermittent and unreliable.”
C’mon now. When you find yourself in a hole, sooner or later you have to stop digging.
It is absolutely obvious (whatever the hell Holliday said or didn’t say) that there is nothing wrong with Willis’s post and that future electricity supply in the UK will be indeed be more intermittent and unreliable than it is today. And indeed, if you are relying more and more on windmills (as we are in the UK), then how could it NOT be more unreliable.
OK, I’m quite happy to agree that developing technology may “manage” demand from appliances such that we don’t have to shiver in the dark too often.
But that’s the bottom line. Without a radical reversal of policy, it is inevitable.
It is also interesting to ponder the following:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1346193/Police-raid-cannabis-factory-discover-home-guinea-pigs-Simon-Kenny.html
This recounts the sad story of a lady who had a police raid on the garage where she kept “Simon” and “Kenny”, her son’s guinea pigs.
“The officers had been alerted when a police helicopter picked up a hotspot on the roof of Pam’s garage and assumed it was a drug den, when in fact it was a cosy home for her loveable pets.”
Now let’s take this cautionary tale at face value. Let’s agree that it may be a good thing for the police to be vigilantly looking for cannabis farms.
But it is interesting that the police obviously have the capability to fly over your home and check it out with a thermal imaging camera.
Now I wonder what other uses they might put that equipment to?
Any ideas?
Here, when it was called Rhodesia and were under mandatory UN sanctions, we designed and constructed “gas generators”.
We had a range of sizes and they ran on coal . The combustion process was such that the coal outgassed a form of Producer Gas that was then pumped to specially designed burners which were then used to bake bread, say, or potato crisps, or stress relieving ovens for steel fabrication, and so on and so forth. This country has a lot, I mean a lot, of good quality coal.
My point is that no matter what kind of ideologically driven incompetence the state indulges in ordinary people will simply make a better plan and get on with life. Think of the insanity of legalizing alcohol and criminalizing marijuana which is totally state induced. People made marijuana popular because it is a less violently destructive way to separate actuality from reality for a short time and it doesn’t cause societal , marital or parental breakdown in as many instances.
Governments didn’t decide to build power stations, people did. Governments got involved in oh so many ways because of it’s cash streams. In the UK Oil, Gas and coal provide a huge income to the exchequer , they think wind will do the same but it won’t.
Here almost everybody has a generator now because of the incompetence of our Government Power Monopoly. They tried to monopolize liquid fuel supply and distribution too but when that fell over independent businesses took over and so it has remained so our generators are useful as our backup plan.
So already ordinary people have got around government incompetence and carried on living. You will do the same.
Roddy Campbell says:
March 4 at 12:15 PM
“I tried for a while to find out exactly what Holliday said, rather than just what The Telegraph turned it into. I wouldn’t comment without seeing it all. I couldn’t find it”
The BBC allows you to ‘listen again’ to certain interviews, but only for 7 days after they were first broadcast. The Steve Halliday interview was on March 1st at 8.46 AM and can be heard on the BBC site at
Steve Halliday Interview
The Chief Executive makes his famous remarks at the end of the interview after he is asked what will happen if the wind doesn’t blow and the wind mills don’t provide enough power. He says that “The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020/2030. We keep thinking about we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be a much ‘smarter’ system then, we are going to have to change our own behaviour and consume it when it’s available and available cheaply..”
Holliday is not talking about blackouts and brownouts. The intent is to build a ‘smartgrid’, where low-urgency tasks such as routine clothes washing and water heating automatically switch on when energy is cheaper and more available, such as when wind farms are online.
It’s nothing particularly new, we already have a coarse version where you can buy tarrifs with a cheaper night rate, to encourage people to use electricity “off peak”.
Poptech says:
March 5, 2011 at 5:56 pm
hro001, “Now, I could be mistaken (although in this instance I doubt that I am) but the opposite of “constant” is “intermittent” – a word which is not inconsistent with “not permanently available”. ”
That is my point, he is not quoted as using either word (constant or intermittent) let alone ‘permanent’. That is IMO a gross distortion of what he said [….]
=======
How can it possibly be a “gross distortion”?! He distinctly said:
The indisputable inference of “when it’s available” is that there will be times when it will not be available
Ergo, it will be intermittent (or “not permanently available” … not a great choice, but usually writers will try not to use the same key word/phrase more than once, particularly in a short article).
Poptech, you marched in here, guns blazing – without doing any homework – declaring that the article was “fake” (presumably because you couldn’t find it online). I may have missed the comment in which you apologized for this unwarranted declaration.
More importantly, though, I don’t understand why you have such a bee in your bonnet about this particular article – or why you are persisting in your attempts to diminish the very clear implications of Holliday’s very own words.
For those who believe the article was faked, please see update above.
Re racookpe1978
Naturally there will be no compensation for loss of power, especially not consequential losses. Businesses have already been warned by Ofgem that their interruptable power contracts are going to mean more interruptions. But no problem, businesses can just buy much more expensive assured supply contracts. Assuming they can afford to do that, and stay in business.
This new toy from the Department of Entropy and Climate Circuses makes government thinking clear-
http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/
Two sliders helpfully preset to allow you to manage demand, one is Manufacturing Growth, the other Home Temperature. Cut manufacturing to 1/3rd of present and we ‘solve’ our CO2 problems, but destroy the economy in the process. Set the slider to 25% and it assumes we’ll reduce shipping of goods via better IT. I must have missed the RFC explaining transport of manufactured goods via the web. Perhaps DECC thinks ‘IT’ means everyone using laptops, so have batteries and a degree of built in UPS. Or they’re just utterly bonkers.
Some of the problems will probably surface in 2012 though. The UK decided to hold the Olympics, which is a big energy user. It decided to hold it in London’s East End, which used to be a big energy user. Datacentres there were told that for the duration of the event, they’d lose power. Given traffic management during the games, fuel deliveries for stand-by generators also could not be assured. It might be embarassing to see fuel tankers queing to try and keep our hi-tec City of London’s lights on after all. Several decided to relocate instead, or close. Costs of datacentres and services have been rocketing thanks to rising energy costs. If the future of the UK’s economy is going to be based on IT, why would businesses set up in the UK where energy costs are high and energy security is low?
Oddly enough, much of my work over the last few years has been designing networks for customers moving away from the UK. Very little for businesses moving to, or expanding here.
I was looking after a patient on a ventilator once, in Australia, and the power company needed to shed power. They evenly shared the power cuts to different areas. Including the hospital. Lucky I was next to the bed when they cut our power off, and we had torches. We saved her by switching to hand bagging. I now live in Indonesia, and I can tell you, lack of power kills poor people. If the English are PLANNING this for there future, there Elite must really hate the poor. This is genocide.
What about surgery? Gee, we would have finished your open-heart operation but the wind stopped blowing. Go figure.
Whatever was meant, if you have to re-schedule, by implication there is insufficient power. Simples!
DaveE.