Solar expert Dr. Leif Svalgaard says the last X class flare was Dec 13th, 2006. The flare today is the first Solar Cycle 24 flare reaching X class level.
See the Xray plot below:
Now THAT’S a flare:
Lookout for auroras in the next couple of days.
Flare classifications: Each category for x-ray flares has nine subdivisions ranging from, e.g., C1 to C9, M1 to M9, and X1 to X9.
| Class |
Peak (W/m2)between 1 and 8 Angstroms |
| B | I < 10-6 |
| C | 10-6 < = I < 10-5 |
| M | 10-5 < = I < 10-4 |
| X | I > = 10-4 |
Live updates on the WUWT solar page
h/t to Leif Svalgaard
citizenschallenge says:
February 14, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Gordon Bennett…
citizenschallenge says:
February 14, 2011 at 11:30 pm
“So what is the relevance of this.”
I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt that you are new to WUWT as it is clearly stated that this blog is a “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news.”, but your blog would indicate otherwise.
By my count this story meets all those criteria. We are also very fortunate to have several exceptional posters who have credentials in solar physics beyond reproach as evidenced by many of the comments in this thread.
The vast majority here do not dispute basic CO2 physics but question the severity of impact attributed to it and understand that the scenarios presented for the next 5, 10, 50, 100 years rely on a tenuous assumption that CO2 is capable of amplifying the effects of other greenhouse gasses leading to runaway catastrophic thermageddon.
As many posters who have tirelessly contributed to the vast repository of knowledge that WUWT represents have shown the consensus is hardly that and the cornucopia of observations do not match the theory and are tainted by poor quality control.
What is relevant is the work of Dr. Henrik Svensmark who has been working on establishing the link between solar strength and galactic cosmic radiation that reaches the earth. I recommend you read his book, The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change and research his efforts to validate that theory at CERN with the CLOUD project.
I hope you really believe in “honest examination of today’s deeper challenges.” as should become apparent with even infrequent browsing of the daily topics presented here that only one side allows free and open discussion on topics, including the ones that challenge their worldviews. As many of us have come to understand true enlightenment requires admitting your mistakes and allowing all voices to be heard even the ones you disagree with. If you can’t admit that the gatekeepers of the consensus have done everything in their power to prevent an honest examination of the theory and observations then you may as well move on and keep lying to yourself.
JM
Squidly says:
February 14, 2011 at 6:57 pm
A little OT, sort of, but, Anthony, I am surprised that you haven’t posted anything about this (The Cloud Mystery – Documentary by Henrik Svensmark
I watched all 5 parts last night and was blown away. In my humble opinion, this is HUGE! .. It would really be swell to read comments on this blog about this documentary. I would love to read opinions about it from people that comment on hear, people that I respect.
Thanks for the link. I have just watched it and found it extremely interesting from a number of perspectives:-
It is a good exposition of an interesting and plausible theory.
It is a good example of the abuse of the peer review system.
It demonstrates how the real scientific method is applied by genuine scientists.
It shows, first hand, the arogance, pomposity and intolerance of some in the scientific establishment.
It should be compulsary viewing for any schoolchild shown the “Inconvenient Truth”. They could then be left to draw their own conclusions.
Craig Goodrich says:
February 14, 2011 at 9:08 pm
anyone looking at actual UV effects reaching the planet’s surface?
The variation of that UV is so small that energetically is has no measurable effect.
Jan Alvestad says:
February 14, 2011 at 9:35 pm
I would assume several other predictions were available as well.
Whenever you have an active region of the complexity of 1158, strong flares are a given.
rbateman says:
February 14, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Would that mean that the Sun emits so much flare energy per cycle, but since it’s been rather quiet it has to pop off that energy in larger bursts?
I don’t think there is any such ‘rule’. On a quiet sun an active region perhaps has a better chance to grow [if it is so] undisturbed of other activity. But this is conjecture.
joachim says:
February 15, 2011 at 12:10 am
How long does aurora last after a event this big? Will it last long enough for most of the northern hemisphere to be able to see it? ~24 hours?
We haven’t seen the aurora from this flare yet. A good-sized magnetic storm takes about a day to play out.
————-
Phil Scherrer supplies this nice movie of the growth of 1158 seen by HMI
http://sun.stanford.edu/~phil/Ic_FLAT.mp4
Interesting info
Space weather scales
Solar cycle 24 com
James Mayo (12:45 am) – well said.
When CO2 was mentioned by the challenged one, my first thought was that he’d posted on the wrong page, but with your excellent attempt at enlightenment, I suspect we’ll either get silence, or troll-type rubbish back.
Time will tell.
S. Australia’s and New Zeeland’s communications may be affected:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html
Anthony has shown me a bit of grace a time or two.. as my posts are either inquisitive, or humorous jibes at those whom believe that the “science is settled”. So at the risk of being justly moderated. I will weigh in.
“citizenschallenge says:”
February 14, 2011 at 11:30 pm
“So what is the relevance of this.”
It is my .. ardent opinion.. that the demonstration of solar physics here, and the subsequent known and unknown effect it will have on the earth , and to find the need to ask if it is indeed “relevant” is the equal of asking a man whose head is stuck in a bucket of water.. if oxygen is indeed relevant.
Perhaps Mr Gore could assist you in this comparative.. if he is ever able to get own head out of the bucket.
Jimmy Haigh says:
February 15, 2011 at 12:12 am
Indeed. gorblimey as well.
Squidly says:
February 14, 2011 at 6:57 pm
I already knew about Svensmark’s GCR cloud regulation hypothesis but this film he made about it is wonderful and well worth watching. Hearing him describe the hostility he met from the CAGW community and how shocking it was to him is a great testimony to how climate scientists convinced of and/or perpetuating the CO2 myth are peddling ideological dogma not science. Those folks are so far off the path of science it’s doubtful they’ll ever find their way back.
Video replay of the X2.2 flare in UV 1700A light”.
Note that there were several smaller flares, probably C-class, before and after the main event.
Since X is the top class they can exceed X9. X12, X20 are possible . . . ouch.
Dave Springer says:
February 15, 2011 at 5:37 am
I already knew about Svensmark’s GCR cloud regulation hypothesis
How about sticking to the topic…
Douglas, I wonder if we will be able to see the aurora through the snow flakes? Lostine forecast is for mostly cloudy and snowy over the next 6 to 7 days.
citizenschallenge says:
February 14, 2011 at 11:30 pm
“So what is the relevance of this.”
Who cares. Whether this has relevance to weather or climate is a non issue. This is real science. There is a very interesting natural phenomenon happening right now and with the links provided by the great people at this blog we can watch it happen almost right before our eyes. Not only that but we can learn something about it through the posts of some of the worlds most knowledgeable people on this topic.
Sometimes we need to stop arguing and just observe, watching these solar flare videos is pretty cool, and the possibility that we will have some auroras to watch is even better. I for one am very thankful that Anthony posts stuff like this and gives a forum for these discussions.
@ur momisugly Ed Mertin says:
February 14, 2011 at 9:01 pm
“Does anyone know if the sun produced a gigantic sunspot group when Tambora erupted in April, 1815?”
I have found eruptions occur at short term solar forced uplifts in temperature after colder periods, with bigger events typically at bigger temp` differentials. More often the uplift would be due an increase in the solar wind speed from coronal holes rather than sunspot flares. Watch from mid May this year.
@ur momisugly Sam Bailey
It’s not that Al Gore has his head in a bucket, but up his own ………. (you get the message!)
BTW, (& this is general) don’t feed the trolls – ignore them, and they crawl back under the bridge.
…and I just watched the Outer Limits presentation of Larry Niven’s Inconstant Moon last night…
Brrrrr.
Pamela- I know -Im hoping for a Snow(rain) Shadow effect for at leat a couple of hours near dawn….
Full moon doesn’t help either….
JM: If you can’t admit that the gatekeepers of the consensus have done everything in their power to prevent an honest examination of the theory and observations then you may as well move on and keep lying to yourself.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Hmmm, and you believe WUWT has always been a straight shooter?
=========
SB: It is my .. ardent opinion.. that the demonstration of solar physics here, and the subsequent known and unknown effect it will have on the earth , and to find the need to ask if it is indeed “relevant” is the equal of asking a man whose head is stuck in a bucket of water.. if oxygen is indeed relevant.
~ ~ ~
MR: Who cares. Whether this has relevance to weather or climate is a non issue. This is real science. There is a very interesting natural phenomenon happening right now and with the links provided by the great people at this blog we can watch it happen almost right before our eyes.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
That’s fair enough, guess I was jumping to a conclusion that you’re trying to explain away our witnessed global warming by blaming it on a sun that have been at a minimum. Although I agree it will be interesting watching this year unfold and witness what the sun does.
Thanks for the welcome, I’ll be back. CC
I am not sure if these web cams will pick up the auroras, however beats sitting in the cold: http://akweathercams.faa.gov/sitelist.php
Maybe someone has a land-based web cam specific to aurora watching we can take advantage of.
sorry should have added quotation marks.
I know little about predicting auroras. Tonight (15th)? Tomorrow (16th)? I’d like to alert people to be looking but I don’t know when to tell them to look.
Mike
Is this just a “dead cat bounce” off the minimum? It was, after all, just barely an X-flare at 2.2.
Didn’t 22 & 23 produce a fusillade of X10 flares in rapid succession?
@bubbayro
> Isn’t this just a “dead cat bounce” off the minimum?
It may be just be a crumb. But when you’ve been starving for solar activity for over a year, it seems like a feast.
😐