It has been awhile since I posted a Sea Ice News. This one is a two parter. NSIDC’s Monthly Sea Ice News comes first, followed by some images and content I find interesting. Kudos to NSIDC for flagging the AO instead of “climate change” for the low January extent. – Anthony
From NSIDC:
Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather
Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Overview of conditions
Arctic sea ice extent averaged over January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). This was the lowest January ice extent recorded since satellite records began in 1979. It was 50,000 square kilometers (19,300 square miles) below the record low of 13.60 million square kilometers (5.25 million square miles), set in 2006, and 1.27 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.
Ice extent in January 2011 remained unusually low in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait (between southern Baffin Island and Labrador), and Davis Strait (between Baffin Island and Greenland). Normally, these areas freeze over by late November, but this year Hudson Bay did not completely freeze over until mid-January. The Labrador Sea remains largely ice-free.
Figure 2. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of January 31, 2011, along with daily ice extents for previous low-ice-extent years in the month of January. Light blue indicates 2010-2011, green shows 2005-2006 (the record low for the month was in 2006), and dark gray shows the 1979 to 2000 average. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Conditions in context
Air temperatures over much of the Arctic were 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in January. Over the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait and Labrador Sea, temperatures were at least 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average. Temperatures were near average over the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Scandinavia.
As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth. It is unclear how long it will remain in a positive mode.
Figure 3. Monthly January ice extent for 1979 to 2011 shows a decline of 3.3% per decade.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
January 2011 compared to past yearsJanuary 2011 had the lowest ice extent for the month since the beginning of satellite records. The linear rate of decline for the month is –3.3% per decade.
Ice extent for the Arctic as a whole increased at an average of 42,800 square kilometers (16,500 square miles) per day through the month of January, which is about average.
Figure 4. This graph shows the ice extent in Hudson Bay from late November to the end of January, for the last five years. This year, Hudson Bay froze up substantially later than in previous years. MASIE data.
—Credit: NSIDC /NIC MASIE ProductHigh-resolution image
Slow regional ice growth
In contrast, regional ice growth has been particularly slow compared to past years. Hudson Bay did not completely freeze up until mid-January, about a month later than normal according to Canadian Ice Service analyses. The Labrador Sea region is still largely free of ice, except in protected bays along the coast. Normally at this time of year, ice extends several hundred kilometers from the coast all the way to northern Nova Scotia.
Figure 5. These images show high and low atmospheric pressure patterns for January 2011 (left) and the January 1968-1996 average (right). Yellows and reds show higher pressures; blues and purples indicate lower pressures, as indicated by the height of the 850 millibar pressure level above the surface, called the pressure surface. Normally, the pressure surface is nearer to the surface around the pole, winds follow the pressure contours around the pole (the polar vortex), and cold air is trapped in the Arctic. This year, the pressure pattern is allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic into the mid-latitudes.
—Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL PSDHigh-resolution image
Potential links with mid-latitude weather
While the Arctic has been warm, cold and stormy weather has affected much of the Northeast U.S. and Europe. Last winter also paired an anomalously warm Arctic with cold and snowy weather for the eastern U.S. and northern Europe. Is there a connection?
Warm conditions in the Arctic and cold conditions in northern Europe and the U.S. are linked to the strong negative mode of the Arctic oscillation. Cold air is denser than warmer air, so it sits closer to the surface. Around the North Pole, this dense cold air causes a circular wind pattern called the polar vortex , which helps keep cold air trapped near the poles. When sea ice has not formed during autumn and winter, heat from the ocean escapes and warms the atmosphere. This may weaken the polar vortex and allow air to spill out of the Arctic and into mid-latitude regions in some years, bringing potentially cold winter weather to lower latitudes.
Some scientists have speculated that more frequent episodes of a negative Arctic Oscillation, and the stormy winters that result, are linked to the loss of sea ice in the Arctic. Dr. James Overland of NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) recently noted a link between low sea ice and a weak polar vortex in 2005, 2008, and the past two winters, all years with very low September sea ice extent. Earlier work by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University and colleagues also suggested a relationship between autumn sea ice levels and mid-latitude winter conditions. Judah Cohen, at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., and his colleagues propose another idea—a potential relationship between early snowfall in northern Siberia, a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and more extreme winters elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. More research on these ideas may shed light on the connections and have the potential to improve seasonal weather forecasting.
Further reading
Francis, J.A., Chan, W-H., Leathers, D.J., Miller, J.R., Veron, D.E., 2009. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
Overland, J.E., Wang, M-Y., 2010. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus 62A, 1-9.
Cohen, J., J. Foster, M. Barlow, K. Saito, and J. Jones, 2010. Winter 2009-2010: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17707, doi:10.1029/2010GL044256.
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NSIDC is correct about Hudson Bay. It took a longer time to freeze up this year.
JAXA extent shows 2011 about the same as 2010 right now – click for a large image
I would also add this NSIDC image, which shows that some of the areas missing ice extent are well outside of the Arctic circle, south of Greenland. This is consequence of the Arctic Oscillation and weather effects in the region.
I do find the NAVY PIPS ice thickness data interesting though. I’ve animated the Feb 1st plots from 2007 through 2011 together:
The way I read it, above 80°N to the pole, we have an increase in thickness and an increase in expanse of thicker ice since 2009. The pressure ridges from wind driven ice pushed up against Greenland also seem to have minimized a bit on 2011. If this is the case, this may have some implications for the 2011 summer minimum.
You can plot individual dates here and do your own comparisons.
See more on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page here
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I do remember last season when Steve Goddard went on endlessly about how the PIPS 2.0 data was showing the huge build up of thicker ice in the Arctic Basin and that led him to his 5.5 million sq. km. minimum prediction. What happened? Much of that “thick” ice cycled out into the warmer than normal waters of the Beaufort Sea and melted. Many skeptics it seems like to minimize the role of greater amounts of open water and warmer than normal water for both ice melt, as well as potential effects on atmospheric circulation. IMO, they ignore these dynamics at the peril of their own potential increase in the understanding of Arctic Sea ice dynamics.
kwinterkorn says: February 3, 2011 at 8:00 am
Another negative feedback system fighting GW: Less polar ice means more heat escapes the ocean, heats the air, then is radiated out to space. Warmer air temps for now, less heat in the system in the long run.
This is true. Most of the heat arriving at the earth enters at low latitudes and much is transported to the Arctic by ocean and air currents. The Arctic region is a net emitter of heat.
Despite the negative feedback that you point out, the Arctic is getting warmer on average, over time. The Arctic glaciers are melting, and the area and volume of sea ice is decreasing, given the best measures we have. The Arctic is not losing heat fast enough to stop this trend, so far. Take a look.
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003800/a003817/
John from CA
Is it moving or is the ice moving it?
Volgoneft-131 http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:d5YiDmwIAysJ:ams.confex.com/amspdfpapers/46252.pdf+Volgoneft-131 aagh too long, I can’t copy and paste at the moment, the pdf file doesn’t come up, but is on the google quick view, page 9:
google Volgoneft-131 and go to the: 8B.6A HOMOGENIZING THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION CLIMATE RECORD BY …
Myrrh says:
February 4, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Is it moving or is the ice moving it?
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Hard to tell but I’m assuming its moving — 20 miles would be pretty extreme for ice movement in a day and it keeps going back to the same location.
So its a science vessel taking temperature measurements in the Arctic. Pretty amazing, they must have modified the hull.
“In general, radiosondes show less warming than expected in the lower troposphere and more cooling than expected in the stratosphere.”
R. Gates says:
February 4, 2011 at 12:09 pm
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Hey R. Gates,
We’ll see what happens but we’ve got a way to go before the maximum which peaked late last year. We also have a lot more multi-year ice this year and La Nina isn’t due to ramp down until summer.
I doubt we’ll see a quick reverse to El Nino so ice 2011 minimum should be above average.
Its a shame the Australian MSM won’t publish articles like this, we have to endure the same old story line. From the article..
“But sea ice has been melting dramatically in recent years, forcing polar bears during the open-water periods to either forage from shore or swim longer distances in search of sea ice.”
And…
“All the scientific studies show an incredibly high likelihood of extinction of two-thirds of the world’s polar bears in the next 40 years … and that includes all the bears in Alaska,” said Kassie Siegel, who is arguing the case for the Centre for Biological Diversity.”
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/polar-bear-swam-nonstop-for-nine-days-20110204-1aguu.html
Patrick Davis says:
February 4, 2011 at 10:10 pm
Its a shame the Australian MSM won’t publish articles like this, we have to endure the same old story line.
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I agree — the stories are more fantasy than fact.
from the article:
“US Geological Survey in Alaska have tracked a female bear that swam nine days across the deep, frigid Beaufort Sea before reaching an ice floe 685 kilometres offshore.”
”All the scientific studies show an incredibly high likelihood of extinction of two-thirds of the world’s polar bears in the next 40 years … and that includes all the bears in Alaska,” said Kassie Siegel, who is arguing the case for the Centre for Biological Diversity.
Here’s the problem with articles like these. They fail to state the time frame, they are freak instances, and there isn’t much of any basis in fact that can support the “high likelihood of extinction of two-thirds of the world’s polar bears in the next 40 years”.
Also, the time frame in question would not have delivered “frigid” SST as there was sea ice in the Beaufort by November 15th so the episode likely occurred before the 15th.
Polar bears spend time on land during summer and have been observed hunting in coastal surf and along the coast line. Also, Bears in Alaska are eating machines — they’ll eat anything including grasses in the early spring. Warmer temperatures would increase not decrease the food supply. IMO, the article is complete rubbish.
November 1 and November 15 sea ice in the Beaufort Sea.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=11&fd=01&fy=2010&sm=11&sd=11&sy=2010
From eadler on February 4, 2011 at 12:20 pm:
Ah yes, the famous GISTEMP maps with the 1200km smoothing, allowing the esteemed Dr. Hansen to paint the Arctic red with just one or two actual temperature-reporting stations in or near the actual Arctic.
Basically, not much is happening with the global temperature anomaly averages, which even Hansen has to admit. See the UAH January 2011 update:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/02/uah-update-for-january-2011-global-temperatures-in-freefall/
Going by the satellite record of the lower tropospheric temperatures, after the 1998 Super El Nino things basically leveled out. See the second graph, global average sea surface temperatures are dropping, and have been for awhile now. “Global warming” is on hiatus.
Back to the NASA link:
Of which one of the most important decadal trends [;-)] is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO.htm
A full oscillation lasts around 60 years, with cool and warm phases lasting about 30 years. Of the recent phases, a cool phase started around 1945, shifted to warm around 1977, with 2008 the apparent start of the next cool phase. Working backwards, a cool to warm shift happened around 1915.
Now we go to the maps at the NASA link, found below the animations, the five-year ones. “Global Temperature Anomalies averaged from…” xxx0 to xxx4, thus only the first half of the decades are available. Compare 1910-1914 to 1920-1924, covering the shift to warm around 1915. Note the dramatic color shift above Eurasia, what was cool became warm, while above Alaska the reverse happened. Next flip is 1940-1944 to 1950-1954, the 1945 shift to the cool PDO phase. Russia, China, Alaska and the western and central parts of Canada and the US, all cooled. A band of Pacific Ocean water stretching from China to the US went cool to warm. Etc, lots of changes.
For three decades, 1950-54, 1960-64, and 1970-74, we see the world in general cool off, with some increases in the Southern Ocean area. Then BANG, there’s the 1977 shift to a warm phase, as seen with 1980-84. The heat is on again. There’s an anonymously cold region formed near the Antarctic Peninsula, in the Pacific Ocean there are noticeable areas that do a temperature flip, as well as the Indian Ocean going from cool to warm. Straight through to 2000-04, we can see the heat spreading far and wide (aided by GISS’ gentle adjustments to the historical temperature record that made the past colder).
Now with a PDO cool phase apparently begun in 2008, with the global average sea surface temperatures dropping, knowing how important the decadal trends are, what do you think is going to happen for the next 25-30 years? More (C)AGW seems highly unlikely, even with the atmospheric CO2 concentrations steadily rising. However more Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmism (CACA) is certainly likely, at least for another decade.
Folks may find the following excerpt of interest.
The Washington Post
Oops. Never mind.
This report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post – 88 years ago
Dennis, I’ve shown a few people that WaPo article and not told them when the date was it was published, they went on about how it proves there is global warming going on, and then I show them the date and they can’t believe their eyes. I usually take 5-10 minutes with a believer in this nonsense and they become a skeptic fast.
SteveE:
No, the original article supports global warming but the science behind it shows there is little proof to believe the arctic is doomed. The ice that is there is getting thicker, and the ice loss from four years ago is coming back. In other words, its just another cyclical pattern that people are trying to claim is caused by human beings so they can get rich off it.
That WaPo article from 1922 is proof.